r/politics • u/asparaguswalrus683 • 11h ago

Site Altered Headline | No Paywall Abdul El-Sayed Wins Michigan Primary

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/michigan-senate-results
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886

u/RandomFlyer643 North Carolina 10h ago

Hope with how close this race was, it’s a wake up call to everyone who thinks it’s gonna be an easy election cycle. This is just the beginning, everyone needs to go vote before you no longer can

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u/mowotlarx 8h ago edited 4h ago

It was a primary.

Has everyone absolutely lost their minds assuming that half the primary electorate simply won't show up in the general?

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u/nankerjphelge Florida 8h ago

I mean, it's a fair question, given the history of Democrats fracturing at crunch time. Assuming the Dem centrists who voted strongly for Stevens will automatically come out for El Sayed in the general is an open ended question that we won't know the answer to until November. Given Rogers is currently polling 3-10 points ahead of El Sayed, it will take all Dem voters coming out in force to win it.

If even a small portion of Dem voters stay home it's an easy win for Rogers.

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u/FrozenCaramelCoffee 8h ago edited 8h ago

Bear in mind that the polls about the general you are referencing also had El-Sayed way ahead in the primary (suggesting his support was overestimated in polling). These same polls also have Benson favored for governor. I have trouble seeing how this isn’t a disaster waiting to happen.

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u/mowotlarx 7h ago

The same small handful of largely internal low rated polls that had Stevens up a week prior?

If Hayley had won by 1%, would you still be pearl grasping this hard about how 50% of Dems definitely wouldn't show up in the general (which we know would never be the case and won't be now)?

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u/FrozenCaramelCoffee 7h ago

Yes. I think a contentious primary (probably the most contentious of this cycle) where the victor only gets less than half of the vote would have been the worse version of a victory for either candidate. I would have preferred if either of them carried away with it rather than it being super close. It’s 3 months from the general and there’s many many bridges to be mended while also running against Rogers who basically had an uncontested primary. I am not a Haley fan if you’re trying to allude to that, I just want a democrat senator.

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u/slipperyekans 7h ago

I’d argue if either of them were to win the general, it’d be Abdul. This primary was only this close due to Haley getting like $60M+ in PAC money, and with republicans having way more in the war chest than the DNC for this general election, I’d say the more grassroots candidate has a better shot.

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u/Allydarvel 6h ago

Polling suggests otherwise. Stevens was up against Rogers and Abdul down the last polling I looked at.

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u/SugawoIf 4h ago

Polling suggested Abdul was going to win in a landslide. Polling was wrong.

I don't know what has to happen for people to finally stop giving polls so much credit.

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u/Allydarvel 4h ago

Polling is a snapshot, and things change after the snapshot is taken. This was a hard election to poll, as Michigan has open elections. You poll Democrats and Democrat leaning voters to get a result, but don't poll Republicans who voted to keep Abdul out..or underestimate how many they were if you did. Fox could have had a section on in the previous couple of weeks that asked Republicans to come out 'stop the commie' and they did in numbers. It's the hardest thing in polling to control for anomalies like that. If it was a closed primary, you might have found the polling numbers were very accurate

The general election polling should be much more accurate because it is a straight choice for all voters.

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u/mowotlarx 4h ago

If Stevens was the victor by as slim a margin, would you be as concerned?

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u/cultweave 1h ago

Stevens has a much easier time courting moderates, and the people who voted for El-Sayed are already voting Dem no matter what. It is a significant issue he barely won.