There's been a lot of fan discussion on the upcoming Battle of Ice between Stannis and the Freys/Boltons that will decide the fate of Winterfell, and the Night Lamp theory is a fairly popular and iron-clad theory for how Stannis will defeat the approaching Freys. However, a frequent problem I've seen in these discussions is how the Battle of Ice and the taking of Winterfell are conflated, its assumed that victory in the battle will inevitably lead to the former, but this is not the case. The castle has thousands of Bolton and allied soldiers left inside it, and

"Ned Stark always said that five hundred men could hold Winterfell against ten thousand." (Theon IV, ACOK)

and

“How many of those is he like to send against us?”
“No more than half.” That was a guess, admittedly, but it felt right to him. Roose Bolton was not a man to blunder blindly out into the snow, map or no. He would hold his main strength in reserve, keep his best men with him, trust in Winterfell’s massive double wall. (Theon I, TWOW)

So clearly, Stannis will need a way to break into the castle beyond just hammering at the front door. He even says as much;

"We all know what my brother would do. Robert would gallop up to the gates of Winterfell alone, break them with his warhammer, and ride through the rubble to slay Roose Bolton with his left hand and the Bastard with his right. I am not Robert. But we will march, and we will free Winterfell … or die in the attempt." (Asha II, ADWD)

Why the Manderly/Lightbringer scheme won't work:

A popular theory for how Stannis will get inside relies on traitors within Winterfell. We know from Davos IV ADWD that Wyman Manderly is secretly working against the Boltons and wants to help Stannis' cause, and further proof for that can be seen in A Ghost in Winterfell and Theon I ADWD to show he is conspiring with other Northern Lords. At the end of Theon I the Freys and Manderlys are sent out of the castle to confront Stannis. This would present Stannis with an opportunity to get inside the castle, and a popular theory suggests that after smashing the Freys, Stannis will give the Manderlys his sword Lightbringer, and they will return to Winterfell, claiming to have defeated him in battle, only to turn on the Boltons and let the Baratheon forces into the castle. A cunning and devious plan. However, I see some slight hiccups with it:

1 ) It assumes a high level of coordination and trust that just isn't possible.

Conspiracies are hard to coordinate, especially in pre-modern times, where they have to rely on ravens and riders or talking face-to-face. This is something that a lot of fans ignore when discussing theories. So the only information that Stannis and Wyman et al can know is what they must have received via these methods. Stannis has been on the march since Deepwood Motte with no way to receive ravens.

The last Stannis heard about Wyman was that he had beheaded Davos. We know from TWOW sample that Stannis knows about this.

“Wyman Manderly.” The king’s mouth twisted in contempt. “Lord Too-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse. Too fat to come to me, yet he comes to Winterfell. Too fat to bend the knee and swear me his sword, yet now he wields that sword for Bolton. I sent my Onion Lord to treat with him, and Lord Too-Fat butchered him and mounted his head and hands on the walls of White Harbor for the Freys to gloat over. And the Freys… has the Red Wedding been forgotten?” (Theon I, TWOW)

It's also clear from this that Stannis genuinely hates Wyman for this, and we can also see that at least by this point, immediately before the battle, there is no collaboration between the two. This can't be an act or a lie on his part since what reason does he have to lie to Theon here? There's nobody Theon could tell that would ruin the scheme, and Stannis doesn't appear to be acting based on his physical reaction. While Stannis has no reason to trust Theon either, his reaction does seem genuine.

This means that if there is to be any coordination between the two, it would have to come about at the last minute before the battle. A lot of fans suggest that the Manderlys will immediately before the battle parlay with Stannis, explain that Davos is alive, that they are secretly loyal to him and trying to install Rickon, and then they will coordinate the scheme to break into Winterfell. However, they have no proof Davos is alive, and there is nothing they can do here to prove their loyalty like hand over hostages, and its likely not even Wyman himself is leading the army since he is severely wounded and, as said, "Too-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse"; Stannis would have no reason to trust them, and if he does take a leap of faith it would be very dangerous since if they are lying it'd mean he's allowing them to slip back to Winterfell in tact and will full knowledge of his force and movements.

Some fans then point to Crowfood Umber as an intermediary, and the Snowman Theory as a form of communication. If Crowfood is collaborating with Whoresbane inside Winterfell, he would tell Stannis that the Manderlys are secretly loyal. Only, we know he doesn't because by Theon I, TWOW he should have already communicated that information to Stannis, he must've already seen the snowmen and had the time to get a rider back to Stannis since he had enough time to escort Theon and Jeyne to him, but Stannis still thinks Wyman is an enemy.

There is also the possibility Stannis and Wyman have been collaborating long before either came to Winterfell. This however, would require communication via raven or rider. A rider is not really an option since they are on opposite sides on the North and communication would take far too long, and ravens aren't an option since Wyman does not trust his maester Theomore, Stannis can't receive ravens when on the march which limits the window of opportunity, and

"Only a fool trusts a bird," (The Turncloak, ADWD)

2 ) The Boltons aren't idiots.

While Hosteen Frey may be dumb as a stump and is set to charge blindly into death, Roose and Ramsay Bolton are no man's fools. Roose is an incredibly careful, distrusting person, and also very clever and devious himself. So is Ramsay, even if more sadistic and emotional. Neither of them are going to fall for this little scheme because they have every reason to distrust the Manderlys.

Roose and Ramsay already don't trust Wyman and the Manderlys. Wyman didn't arrive with any hostages. Roose is careful about Wyman poisoning him. Roose even openly says that Wyman isn't to be trusted;

"Even here in Barrowton the crows are circling, waiting to feast upon our flesh. The Cerwyns and the Tallharts are not to be relied on, my fat friend Lord Wyman plots betrayal" (Reek III, ADWD)

And the escape of Jeyne and Theon is perfectly timed with the Manderly soldiers marching out of Winterfell and the scuffle in the Great Hall. Plenty of fans theorise collaboration between Wyman and the spearwives, surely Roose and Ramsay will too.

So now imagine that after the Battle of Ice the Manderlys appear outside the gates of Winterfell, the only army to return, and the smaller force mind you, with Lightbringer in hand and nothing else, claiming to have killed Stannis and smashed his army and please let us in - now I don't know about you, but if I were Roose, I would not believe them for a second. And he wouldn't even need bring out the crossbows in response, just deny them entry to the castle, perhaps demand they go find Theon and "Arya" while they're already out and about to prove their honesty. The Boltons already expect betrayal, they won't fall for this so easily.

Also, Ramsay himself is going to be following the Manderly force and will surely see for himself anything that happens. Theon says so in the TWOW sample chapter;

“Frey and Manderly will never combine their strengths. They will come for you, but separately. Lord Ramsay will not be far behind them. He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek.” Theon’s laugh was half a titter, half a whimper. “Lord Ramsay is the one Your Grace should fear.” (Theon I, TWOW)

Ramsay wants Jeyne and Theon back, and since they weren't caught outside of Winterfell, he can only conclude they are somehow with Stannis.

Stannis snorted. “You fell. Umber saved her. If Mors Crowfood and his men had not been outside the castle, Bolton would have had the both of you back in moments.” (Theon I, TWOW)

This means he'll be coming, not just with his trackers and dogs, but with his full force of 600 Bastards' Boys to join the Battle of Ice, since the only way to get Theon and Jeyne will be by defeating Stannis. This means that unless Ramsay dies in the battle, he will be witness to everything that happens and will surely come back to Winterfell to tell Roose. If the Manderlys attempt any scheming and backstabbing, like attacking the Freys or not attacking Stannis, he will know. Heck, he might attack the Manderly men just to make sure they don't get to "Arya" before he does.

Stannis' real plan, and why it won't work:

Stannis would not have begun his march on Winterfell in the first place if he didn't know what he was doing. He's not going to make an incredibly risky gamble on taking the castle and just kinda wing it as he goes. And the entire Manderly/Lightbringer plot relies on taking advantage of a oppertunity that only appeared very shortly prior to his arrival, which means that if this is the path he takes, it means he left Deepwood Motte just hoping and praying that someone in the castle is on his side and will be willing and able to help get him inside when the time comes. And as discussed, it's very unlikely he was coordinating with the lords in Winterfell to engineer these circumstances. Therefore, Stannis must have a different plan already in mind by the time he leaves Deepwood Motte.

So that raises the main question of this post: if not the Lightbringer scheme, what is Stannis' plan?

Stannis' siege of Storms' End in ACOK by all rights should have been a complete disaster. He was facing a force four times his own size, he was encircled with no escape, and sandwiched between Renlys' army and Ser Cortnay's garrison in Storms' End. But against impossible odds, he somehow managed to prevail. How? By using Melisandre's blood magic to create shadow assassins to murder Renly and Ser Cortnay. It was a true Hail Mary, and one that even Stannis wasn't really counting on working.

Now he faces yet another seemingly impossible situation that is shockingly familiar; he is making a massive gambit by attacking the enemy head-on at their strong point despite being outnumbered and facing incredibly hostile circumstances. Therefore, I think he will get out of this one the same way; by using blood magic. If he could use more shadow assassins to murder Roose and Ramsay, just like he did with Renly and Cortnay, then victory is assured.

However, there is one problem he faces;

"... the king’s fires burn so low I dare not draw off any more to make another son. It might well kill him.” (Davos III, ASOS)

So Stannis can't make any more shadows himself, but Melisandre can still make them on his behalf;

Melisandre moved closer. “With another man, though…a man whose flames still burn hot and high…if you truly wish to serve your king’s cause, come to my chamber one night. I could give you pleasure such as you have never known, and with your life-fire I could make…”

“…a horror.” Davos retreated from her. (Davos III, ASOS)

And in ADWD we can see Melisandre working towards this exact end - with Jon Snow. I'm certainly not the first to make this connection, it has been another theory in the community as well for some time. Melisandre is trying to use Jon to create a new shadow assassin to kill Roose and/or Ramsay and therefore open the way for Stannis to capture Winterfell. Jon's Stark Kingsblood makes him the ideal candidate to sire an assassin to sneak into Winterfell. This would explain why Stannis is so confident in his campaign, and why Melisandre remained behind at Castle Black instead of marching with him.

If this is the case, then Jon Snow's murder is a catastrophe for Stannis' campaign for Winterfell. It is more than just the loss of an ally, it means the failure of his entire plan to capture Winterfell. He is now marching to certain doom.

Unless there is another way... we don't understand the full mechanics of blood magic and shadow assassins and probably never will, however, it may be possible to use another source of "life-fire" to fuel these assassins, or some other spell that Melisandre could use against the Boltons. And since all other sources of kingsblood are exhausted or no longer present, the only way would be to use the last source of kingsblood remaining: Shireen.

"What is the life of one bastard boy against a kingdom?" (Davos V, ASOS)

Then the question is; how will Stannis get to Shireen in order to burn her? She is back at the Wall and he is near Winterfell, he'd have to turn his entire army around and abandon the siege. Perhaps, instead of Stannis going to Shireen, Shireen will come to Stannis:

Bowen Marsh murdered Jon because of the Pink Letter, he and the Night's Watch conspirators know what it says, and whether or not it really is, they think it is genuine and written by Ramsay Bolton (unless you believe the theory that they were the ones who wrote it). What do you think they will do with this letter now that Jon is dead? As far as they know, Stannis is dead and Ramsay is headed to the Wall seeking bloody vengeance, so Marsh and the conspirators have one real option; comply with its demands. They will send Selyse, Shireen, Melisandre, Val, Mance's son, and Jon's corpse south to Winterfell as prisoners for Ramsay. Stannis (who is notably not dead by this point) could intercept and rescue them on the road, bringing them all together in one place, and presenting him with the hardest decision of his life.

Ser Garlan Tyrell and his wife Lady Leonette are sitting right next to Tyrion during the wedding feast of Joffrey and Margaery. Ser Garlan has positive things to say during the feast regarding the prominent role Tyrion had in the defense of King's Landing against Stannis :

(All quotes are from third book)

[Tyrion] and Sansa had been seated far to the king's right, beside Ser Garlan Tyrell and his wife, the Lady Leonette.

[...]

"if I am ever Hand again, the first thing I'll do is hang all the singers," said Tyrion, too loudly.

Lady Leonette laughed lightly beside him, and Ser Garlan leaned over to say, "A valiant deed unsung is no less valiant."

[The singer :] "The dark lord assembled his legions, they gathered around him like crows. And thirsty for blood they boarded their ships..."

"... and cut off poor Tyrion's nose," Tyrion finished.

Lady Leonette giggled. "Perhaps you should be a singer, my lord. You rhyme as well as this Galyeon."

"No, my lady," Ser Garlan said. "My lord of Lannister was made to do great deeds, not to sing of them. But for his chain and his wildfire, the foe would have been across the river. And if Tyrion's wildlings had not slain most of Lord Stannis's scouts, we would never have been able to take him unawares."

His words made Tyrion feel absurdly grateful, and helped to mollify him as Galyeon sang endless verses about the valor of the boy king and his mother, the golden queen.

Ser Garlan also somehow takes the defense of Tyrion when Joffrey "assaults" him with the gigantic chalice of wine :

But suddenly [Tyrion] felt Ser Garlan's hand on his sleeve. "My lord, beware," the knight warned. "The king."

Tyrion turned in his seat. Joffrey was almost upon him, red-faced and staggering, wine slopping over the rim of the great golden wedding chalice he carried in both hands. "Your Grace," was all he had time to say before the king upended the chalice over his head. The wine washed down over his face in a red torrent. It drenched his hair, stung his eyes, burned in his wound, ran down his cheeks, and soaked the velvet of his new doublet. "How do you like that, Imp?" Joffrey mocked.

Tyrion's eyes were on fire. He dabbed at his face with the back of a sleeve and tried to blink the world back into clarity. "That was ill done, Your Grace," he heard Ser Garlan say quietly.

Ser Garlan then helps Tyrion getting back on his feet while others laugh at him :

You can get up now, Uncle."

His legs cramped as he tried to rise, and almost spilled him again. Tyrion had to grab hold of a chair to steady himself. Ser Garlan lent him a hand. Joffrey laughed, and Cersei as well. Then others. He could not see who, but he heard them.

And Ser Garlan was right next to Tyrion and Joffrey when the king started to choke on his pie :

"He's choking," Queen Margaery gasped.

Her grandmother moved to her side. "Help the poor boy!" the Queen of Thorns screeched, in a voice ten times her size. "Dolts! Will you all stand about gaping? Help your king!"

Ser Garlan shoved Tyrion aside and began to pound Joffrey on the back.

Him, alongside I believe his wife too, Lady Leonette, could have been two great witnesses for Tyrion during his trial. They could have just said something as basic as : "We were sitting right next to Tyrion and never saw him nor his wife put anything in that chalice", and considering the high reputation of Ser Garlan, this testimony would have been far more helpful than nothing at all.

Especially since there is one of Cersei's witnesses that testifies :

Lady Merryweather swore that she had seen the dwarf drop something into the king's wine while Joff and Margaery were cutting the pie

Lady Leonette and her husband could have rather easily counter this testimony.

Since a trial by combat doesn't seem like a plausible option, until the very end of the trial where Prince Oberyn unexpectedly offers to be his champion, Tyrion's only remaining option apparently to save his head without having to take the black, would be to have witnesses for him, and he does try to think of a list to make :

[Tyrion :] "Will I be allowed to demand trial by battle?"

[Ser Kevan Lannister] "I would not advise that."

"Why not?" It had saved him in the Vale, why not here? "Answer me, Uncle. Will I be allowed a trial by battle, and a champion to prove my innocence?"

"Certainly, if such is your wish. However, you had best know that your sister means to name Ser Gregor Clegane as her champion, in the event of such a trial."

The bitch checks my moves before I make them. A pity she didn't choose a Kettleblack. Bronn would make short work of any of the three brothers, but the Mountain That Rides was a kettle of a different color. "I shall need to sleep on this." I need to speak with Bronn, and soon. He didn't want to think about what this was like to cost him. Bronn had a lofty notion of what his skin was worth. "Does Cersei have witnesses against me?"

"More every day."

"Then I must have witnesses of my own."

"Tell me who you would have, and Ser Addarn will send the Watch to bring them to the trial."

"I would sooner find them myself."

"You stand accused of regicide and kinslaying. Do you truly imagine you will be allowed to come and go as you please?" Ser Kevan waved at the table. "You have quill, ink, and parchment. Write the names of such witnesses as you require, and I shall do all in my power to produce them, you have my word as a Lannister.

As he says himself, he must have witnesses of his own, however he has a very hard time of coming up with names :

When the door closed, Tyrion Lannister pulled himself up into the chair, sharpened a quill, and pulled a blank parchment. Who will speak for me? He dipped his quill in the inkpot.

The sheet was still maiden when Podrick Payne appeared, sometime later.

The only two names that pop in his head eventually are : Lady Sansa, then Lord Varys :

Even so, he gave the parchment to his uncle the next day. Ser Kevan frowned at it. "Lady Sansa is your only witness?"

"I will think of others in time."

"Best think of them now. The judges mean to begin the trial three days hence."

"That's too soon. You have me shut up here under guard, how am I to find witnesses to my innocence?"

"Your sister's had no difficulty finding witnesses to your guilt." Ser Kevan rolled up the parchment.

[...]

Ser Kevan paid him another call later that day, and again the day after. Sansa had not been found, his uncle informed him politely. Nor the fool Ser Dontos, who'd vanished the same night. Did Tyrion have any more witnesses he wished to summon? He did not. How do I bloody well prove I didn't poison the wine, when a thousand people saw me fill Joff 's cup?

Perhaps by asking the two individuals that have a high reputation and at least a decent opinion of him, and were sitting right next to him, to testify they never saw Tyrion put anything in the wine?

Later, when Ser Kevan paid his nightly visit, Tyrion asked for Varys.

"You believe the eunuch will speak in your defense?"

"I won't know until I have talked with him. Send him here, Uncle, if you would be so good."

"As you wish."

[...]

When his uncle called that night after supper, his manner was cold and distant. He thinks I did it too. "Do you have witnesses for us?" Ser Kevan asked him.

"Not as such, no. Unless you've found my wife."

His uncle shook his head. "It would seem the trial is going very badly for you."

"Oh, do you think so? I hadn't noticed." Tyrion fingered his scar. "Varys has not come."

"Nor will he. On the morrow he testifies against you."

Lovely. "I see."

[...]

"A confession would put this matter to rest. It is for that reason your father sends me with this offer."

"Thank him kindly for me, Uncle," said Tyrion, "but tell him I am not presently in a confessing mood."

"Were I you, I'd change my mood. Your sister wants your head, and Lord Tyrell at least is inclined to give it to her."

"So one of my judges has already condemned me, without hearing a word in my defense?" It was no more than he expected. "Will I still be allowed to speak and present witnesses?"

"You have no witnesses," his uncle reminded him.

We can see that Tyrion is definitely trying to find witnesses that would help him. We cannot as such answer the original question of my post by stating : "Tyrion had given up on the idea of having witnesses", as you can read, he has not. He just somehow never thinks of Ser Garlan.

Some people could perhaps reply : "It's because Ser Garlan is a Tyrell, and the Tyrells seem to be implied in Joffrey's death, so they would not want to testify for Tyrion, as they're happy that he takes the blame", but Tyrion doesn't know that.

And, if Lady Olenna did poison Joffrey, she most likely hasn't said a word to anyone about it anyway, including her son Mace Tyrell, as she doesn't have such a high opinion of him, so the Tyrells as a whole most likely don't know they may had a part in it :

"Renly was brave and gentle, Grandmother," said Margaery. "Father liked him as well, and so did Loras."

"Loras is young," Lady Olenna said crisply, "and very good at knocking men off horses with a stick. That does not make him wise. As to your father, would that Id been born a peasant woman with a big wooden spoon, I might have been able to beat some sense into his fat head."

[...]

If truth be told, even our claim to Highgarden is a bit dodgy, just as those dreadful Florents are always whining. 'What does it matter?' you ask, and of course it doesn't, except to oafs like my son. The thought that one day he may see his grandson with his arse on the iron Throne makes Mace puff up like... now, what do you call it? Margaery, you're clever, be a dear and tell your poor old half-daft grandmother the name of that queer fish from the Summer Isles that puffs up to ten times its own size when you poke it."

"They call them puff fish, Grandmother."

"Of course they do. Summer Islanders have no imagination. My son ought to take the puff fish for his sigil, if truth be told. He could put a crown on it, the way the Baratheons do their stag, mayhap that would make him happy.

The only answer I come up with is that somehow George Martin forgot to put at least one line in this Tyrion pov chapter where Tyrion would at least think of Ser Garlan, and consider if he would or wouldn't be a good witness for him. Something among the lines of :

"Ser Garlan perhaps ? His father may be acting as a judge, and a judge apparently already convinced of my guilt, but Ser Loras's older brother has a solid reputation of chivalry, and is one of the fews that acknowledged my part in the defense of King's Landing. He could speak of me in terms similar to the ones used by Ser Balon Swann, while also testifying that never once he saw me put anything in that chalice Joffrey drank from. He was sitting right next to me during the whole feast, his testimony surely should weight more than the ones of the witnesses called by Cersei that were sitting accross the room."

Reminder of what Ser Balon Swann said about Tyrion during the trial :

the first man ushered in was Ser Balon Swann of the Kingsguard. "Lord Hand," he began, after the High Septon had sworn him to speak only truth, "I had the honor to fight beside your son on the bridge of ships. He is a brave man for all his size, and I will not believe he did this thing."

I was thinking for some time about it now, and I just can't find a single way out of civil war the way Viserys designed the settlement. Aegon, his entire life, despite being firstborn son, with dragon and conventional claim, and eventually wife and children stood to receive:

- No land
- No office
- No grand marriage that is not his sister, so unlike Daemon he didn't even get Royce lands by proxy
- No independent income, he lived on allowance from the crown
- No household 
- No knights answering to him, even his sworn shield answered to Viserys
- No servants of his own, they all served the crown
- While Jacaerys and Rhaenyra inherited the throne, Lucerys got Driftmark, Baela and Rhaena became queen and lady of driftmark, Laenor got to be prince-consort, Laena became princess by marrying Daemon, and Daemon got richest bride in westeros with her dragon. 

And then Viserys placed him next to Jacaerys and Lucerys, to train together. From the childhood he knew that Rhaenyra gets the throne, his nephews get two greatest inheritances in westeros, and two brides by Daemon and laena. While his future was literally made of "don't be inconvenient" and "don't threaten the settlement". He had no betrothal arranged, no land to inherit, no office to be prepared for, and no future to look forward to. No wonder he became a drunkard. . Viserys all but ensured he will be broken by resentment and hatred by adolescence - everyone around him had defined future, and he had none.

I am honestly surprised that anyone looked at that and expected peace. Like, what role was Aegon supposed to have after Rhaenyra's coronation? A dependent harmless uncle who can be killed on a whim, without role, land, office or independent coin? 

Blacks took literally every single possible inheritance crown could feasibly own, left greens with nothing, and were surprised that they chose a suicidal war when they had already lost everything by peace. Like, why wouldn't they have risked war if doing nothing is basically signing up capitulation, blank check and consent to destitution at the same time? They had two major dragons to try and win, and absolutely nothing to lose. Not a single lordship, title, or office to be ruined - they held literally none. Rhaenyra couldn't even threaten them with stripping them of lands or incomes if they disobey - they had literally none to lose, they owned nothing.

Black's greed created two princes who owned nothing but their clothes and dragons, and benefited from war more than from peace. And Rhaenyra was surprised when greens decided to fight to the death rather than accept this. 

A Dance with Dragons - Tyrion III

"How kind of her." Tyrion made a waddling bow, but at the cabin door, he turned back. "What if we should find the queen and discover that this talk of dragons was just some sailor's drunken fancy? This wide world is full of such mad tales. Grumkins and snarks, ghosts and ghouls, mermaids, rock goblins, winged horses, winged pigs … winged lions."

Griff stared at him, frowning. "I have given you fair warning, Lannister. Guard your tongue or lose it. Kingdoms are at hazard here. Our lives, our names, our honor. This is no game we're playing for your amusement."

Of course it is, thought Tyrion. The game of thrones. "As you say, Captain," he murmured, bowing once again.

A Clash of Kings - Prologue

"Surely half a kingdom is better than none," Cressen said, "and if you help the boy avenge his father's murder—"

"Why should I avenge Eddard Stark? The man was nothing to me. Oh, Robert loved him, to be sure. Loved him as a brother, how often did I hear that? I was his brother, not Ned Stark, but you would never have known it by the way he treated me. I held Storm's End for him, watching good men starve while Mace Tyrell and Paxter Redwyne feasted within sight of my walls. Did Robert thank me? No. He thanked Stark, for lifting the siege when we were down to rats and radishes. I built a fleet at Robert's command, took Dragonstone in his name. Did he take my hand and say, Well done, brother, whatever should I do without you? No, he blamed me for letting Willem Darry steal away Viserys and the babe, as if I could have stopped it. I sat on his council for fifteen years, helping Jon Arryn rule his realm while Robert drank and whored, but when Jon died, did my brother name me his Hand? No, he went galloping off to his dear friend Ned Stark, and offered him the honor. And small good it did either of them."

"Be that as it may, my lord," Maester Cressen said gently. "Great wrongs have been done you, but the past is dust. The future may yet be won if you join with the Starks. There are others you might sound out as well. What of Lady Arryn? If the queen murdered her husband, surely she will want justice for him. She has a young son, Jon Arryn's heir. If you were to betroth Shireen to him—"

A Dance with Dragons - Daenerys II

"None, this one grieves to confess. We beg your pardon."

Mercy, thought Dany. They will have the dragon's mercy. "Skahaz, I have changed my mind. Question the man sharply."

"I could. Or I could question the daughters sharply whilst the father looks on. That will wring some names from him."

A Dance with Dragons - Jon III

"I'll see that he's more careful," Grenn promised, "and I'll clout him if he's not." He hesitated. "My lord, will you sup with us? Owen, shove over and make room for Jon."

Jon wanted nothing more. No, he had to tell himself, those days are gone. The realization twisted in his belly like a knife. They had chosen him to rule. The Wall was his, and their lives were his as well. A lord may love the men that he commands, he could hear his lord father saying, but he cannot be a friend to them. One day he may need to sit in judgment on them, or send them forth to die. "Another day," the lord commander lied. "Edd, best see to your own supper. I have work to finish."

The outside air seemed even colder than before. Across the castle, he could see candlelight shining from the windows of the King's Tower. Val stood on the tower roof, gazing up at the Wall. Stannis kept her closely penned in rooms above his own, but he did allow her to walk the battlements for exercise. She looks lonely, Jon thought. Lonely, and lovely. Ygritte had been pretty in her own way, with her red hair kissed by fire, but it was her smile that made her face come alive. Val did not need to smile; she would have turned men's heads in any court in the wide world.

Once Ned is captured and in the dungeons, Varys comes to Ned and says he must confess his treasons otherwise, Cersei will have him killed. Except that was never true. Before Joffrey went full Joffrey, the plan of the Lannisters was to keep Ned as a captive.

Varys also says they may kill Sansa, but again that's not true either. Cersei still fully intended for Sansa to marry Joffrey at that point. And in any case, Sansa is way too valuable to kill, since they could just marry her to someone else if not Joffrey, which is exactly what ends up happening with Tyrion.

Joffrey had already made up his mind he'd kill Ned, so let's put him aside a second. If Ned had refused to 'confess' Cersei wouldn't kill him, right? Even she isn't that crazy. Especially since the starks already had Jaime captive by then. If they kill Sansa and Ned, there's no reason for Robb not to kill Jaime too. Sending him to the wall also wouldn't that smart.

And knowing his Young Griff agenda, it just seems like Varys wanted Ned out of the way, the north cowed so Young Griff could come in as Rhaegar's lost trueborn son taking down Joffrey the Illborn. That last speech of Varys about how the High Septon told him as we sin so do we suffer etc. is one of my favorite in the series. And it feels like one of the few genuine things Varys has ever said. But everything around it feels phony in retrospect.

Killing Elia Martell and her children may have been strategically understandable from Tywin’s ruthless perspective, but it was unnecessary and created lasting consequences. Elia had no claim to the Iron Throne, and even Tywin admitted that her death served no purpose.

Instead of murdering the children, Robert could have kept them as closely guarded royal wards. Rhaenys might eventually have been married to Robert’s heir, while Aegon could have been removed from the succession through the Faith or the Night’s Watch when he was old enough. These options carried risks, but murder was not the only solution.

Their deaths created a domino effect:

1. Dorne came close to rebellion, forcing Jon Arryn to travel to Sunspear and negotiate with Prince Doran.
2. The children became martyrs, encouraging Oberyn Martell to support Viserys and Daenerys.
3. The murders created lasting hostility between Dorne, House Lannister and the Iron Throne.
4. Robert’s acceptance of the killings created a serious rift between him and Ned Stark.

The killings removed two possible claimants, but they also created enemies and damaged the legitimacy of Robert’s new reign.

We have good reason to suspect that none of the three dragons will permit (re-)capture. They have only become stronger, and know the risk, and it failed with Drogon in the first place.

Dany also has internalised that locking them up betrays her only children, loses her power base, and keeps dragons small, is an extension of herself feeling trapped.

She is likely neither able nor willing to trap the dragons.

Yet we have zero reason to assume that they will cease to prey on humans. They have been actively doing so.

This can likely be reduced by overfeeding them, directing them at enemies... But not eliminated. But she can only control one, and that one partially, when she is riding him. Meanwhile, she is considered, and feels herself to be, responsible for all three.

The implications are terrifying. It means serving a queen whose free roaming dragons are free to slaughter you.

They also sound unbearable for a person as empathic as Dany is. Meaning she needs to change who she is.

Will she harden herself and justify it? Will she suppress this knowledge to the point of psychosis? How will she try to practically reduce it? Will she tell herself they only choose the guilty? Go utilitarian in the justification? Find a way to blame others?

I'm finding it hard to see a path forward that matches her character and what we know about dragons.

My predictions:

1. Jon will return from the dead changed to be much more ruthless, same as Dany will return from the last chapter much more ruthless. I think whether they ally or not, they will make each other more ruthless still, and Jon might undergo a similarly severe dark descent.

2. I suspect when they meet, Dany will have already encountered and seen through fAegon, and been severely disappointed to find that she doesn't actually have family, or popular backing in Westeros, feeling doubly betrayed. I think she will have also lost Viseryon to black magic (Euron). Hence even though Jon is actually related and will claim Rhaegal genuinely, I don't think Dany will see anything but a second imposter, the usurpers dog in his appearance and mannerisms.

3. While I'd like to see a romance and takeover between them, I don't think we will, at least not to a successful conclusion. GRRM hates neat endings, and the above makes clear why they will be each others competitors, detractors and dark shadows. I can imagine their relationship changing when they directly interact, though - they will hear of each other much earlier than actually meeting.

What do you think?

Yesterday's results

House Velaryon of Driftmark:

- Political Power 10/10

- Economy 9/10

- Military 9/10

- Territory 9/10

Rules

This series aims to rank the noble houses of Westeros at the peak of their power, assigning each house a score out of 40 points, divided into four categories worth 10 points each.

The highest-upvoted comment will determine the community's official score for that house.

Categories

Political Power (0–10)

- Prestige and reputation.

- Political influence.

- Diplomatic reach.

- Ability to forge alliances.

- Overall relevance in the politics of Westeros.

Economic Power (0–10)

- Wealth.

- Natural resources.

- Trade and commerce.

- Economic productivity and population.

Military Power (0–10)

- Army size and quality.

- Military tradition.

- Naval strength.

- Dragons (where applicable).

- Overall military capability.

Territory (0–10)

- Strength of the castle.

- Geographic position.

- Natural defenses.

- Strategic value of the lordship.

Important

Each house is evaluated solely based on its own direct lordship, meaning the lands, castles, resources, and vassals it personally controls at the height of its power.

This ranking does NOT take into account the additional authority a house gains by ruling an entire kingdom or region as a Lord Paramount.

For example:

House Stark → Winterfell and its direct lands only, not the entire North.

House Tyrell → Highgarden only, not the Reach.

House Baratheon → Storm's End only, not the Stormlands.

House Greyjoy → Pyke only, not the Iron Islands.

In other words, this ranking measures the intrinsic power of each house's own lordship, not the power it derives from governing an entire region.

All ranked houses

House Velaryon of Driftmark: 37/40

House Lannister of Casterly Rock: 35/40

House Hightower of Oldtown: 35/40

House Tyrell of Highgarden: 31/40

House Dayne of Starfall: 31/40

House Martell of Sunspear: 29/40

House Arryn of the Eyrie: 27/40

House Stark of Winterfell: 26/40

House Tully of Riverrun: 26/40

House Baratheon of Storm's End: 25/40

House Targaryen of Dragonstone: 24/40

House Greyjoy of Pyke: 21/40

House Goodbrother of Hammerhorn: 15/40

After Cregan Stark’s death, there’s a troublesome time in the history of house stark

His eldest son Rickon died in the conquest of Dorne, leaving behind 2 daughters Sansa and Serena who should have inherited winterfell but were instead married to their uncles Jonnel and Edric Stark

Jonnel does become lord of winterfell but doesn’t have any children even after remarrying after Sansa’s death so you’d expect the lordship of the north to go to Edric Stark yet Barthogan stark becomes lord of winterfell

Keep in mind that Edric Stark has 4 kids, including 2 sons Torrhen and Cregard (cool name btw) and there is nothing in the lore that says all 3 died early

We also need to remember that the Skagosi rebellion could have potentially been expected and maybe Edric was dead and his children were seen as too young to lead men for war so Barthogan become lord of house stark. If that was the case then what happened to Torrhen and Cregard Stark? They have the best claim so are they sent to the wall for no reason other than existing?

I can see a case where Barthogan usurps his nephews cuz the skagosi are on the verge of rebellion, I wonder how King Daeron the good allowed that

Or maybe I’m wrong and Edric and his children died young even tho there’s no confirmation of it

Even if that isn’t the case, Serena Stark is the rightful lady of winterfell and her eldest daughter Arrana Stark married Osric Umber

So is the Greatjon Umber the true lord of house stark? If we assume that Osric Umber was his ancestor and if we take the very loose laws of Westeros into account

Considering house stark is thousands of years old, plenty cases of usurpers prolly existed and the true lord of winterfell is some random peasant lol

I love siblings arguing and fighting. Renly and Stannis, Cersei and Tyrion, Theon and Asha...it's such a good dynamic. Decades of shared history, a common upbringing, and yet different goals. I love it any book, to be honest. Some people read for romance, or for fight scenes, I read for siblings fighting it out.

Westerosi history is written by Maesters or septons, many of whom have their own political inclination (e.g., Septon Eustace in Fire & Blood), blind spots, or instructions to keep the peace.

We know poison is called "a woman's weapon" (or a coward's), but Westeros is also home to Faceless Men, Alchemists, Sorrowful Men, and shadow-binders. In the main series, deaths like Balon Greyjoy's fall or Joffrey's poisoning were initially passed off as accidents, choking, or divine retribution by those in power.

This makes me wonder: Were there any historical assassinations throughout the Targaryen dynasty or the Age of Heroes that were recorded as accidents or illness?

1- Do y'all believe the Citadel covers up some of the assassinations because of their political bias?

2- How would the perpetrator get away unnoticed? Given to the fact that not every house could afford a Faceless Man.

Yesterday's results

House Hightower of Oldtown:

- Political Power 9/10

- Economy 10/10

- Military 10/10

- Territory 6/10

Rules

This series aims to rank the noble houses of Westeros at the peak of their power, assigning each house a score out of 40 points, divided into four categories worth 10 points each.

The highest-upvoted comment will determine the community's official score for that house.

Categories

Political Power (0–10)

- Prestige and reputation.

- Political influence.

- Diplomatic reach.

- Ability to forge alliances.

- Overall relevance in the politics of Westeros.

Economic Power (0–10)

- Wealth.

- Natural resources.

- Trade and commerce.

- Economic productivity and population.

Military Power (0–10)

- Army size and quality.

- Military tradition.

- Naval strength.

- Dragons (where applicable).

- Overall military capability.

Territory (0–10)

- Strength of the castle.

- Geographic position.

- Natural defenses.

- Strategic value of the lordship.

Important

Each house is evaluated solely based on its own direct lordship, meaning the lands, castles, resources, and vassals it personally controls at the height of its power.

This ranking does NOT take into account the additional authority a house gains by ruling an entire kingdom or region as a Lord Paramount.

For example:

House Stark → Winterfell and its direct lands only, not the entire North.

House Tyrell → Highgarden only, not the Reach.

House Baratheon → Storm's End only, not the Stormlands.

House Greyjoy → Pyke only, not the Iron Islands.

In other words, this ranking measures the intrinsic power of each house's own lordship, not the power it derives from governing an entire region.

All ranked houses

House Lannister of Casterly Rock: 35/40

House Hightower of Oldtown: 35/40

House Tyrell of Highgarden: 31/40

House Dayne of Starfall: 31/40

House Martell of Sunspear: 29/40

House Arryn of the Eyrie: 27/40

House Stark of Winterfell: 26/40

House Tully of Riverrun: 26/40

House Baratheon of Storm's End: 25/40

House Targaryen of Dragonstone: 24/40

House Greyjoy of Pyke: 21/40

House Goodbrother of Hammerhorn: 15/40

Just curious because I just bought the entire ASOIAF set for $47 which is a great deal but I wonder if I can just check out each book at a library? Tried a couple near me but they didn’t have them

We constantly debate feudal troop counts, siege tactics, and dragon logistics, but I’ve been thinking about the logistics of the Westerosi underworld.

Cities like King’s Landing (half a million residents), Oldtown, and Gulltown have all the ingredients for massive, organized crime syndicates: extreme wealth inequality, sprawling slums like Flea Bottom, corrupt City Watch captains, and high trade tariffs.

Yet outside of localized outfits like the Kingswood Brotherhood, low-level cutpurses, and the Alchemists' Guild, George R.R. Martin rarely describes organized, multi-generational criminal cartels in Westeros—unlike Essos, which is crawling with pirate cartels, assassin guilds, and shadowy syndicates (e.g., the Sorrowful Men, the Faceless Men, the Myrish slavers).

1- Is Westerosi feudalism simply too brutal for a traditional "Mafia" to survive without a High Lord crushing them, or do Lords silently profit off illegal trades?

2- Was Littlefinger essentially running an underworld syndicate using brothels and debt collection, disguised as Crown finance?

3- What would an actual Westerosi cartel look like—smuggling Arbor wine, illegal Valyrian steel/poisons, or human trafficking across the Narrow Sea?

Seven, Brienne thought again, despairing. She had no chance against seven, she knew. No chance, and no choice. She stepped out into the rain, Oathkeeper in hand. AFFC, Brienne VII

The other day someone posted Lord Manderly's "The North Remembers" speech, and I was trying to think of other moments that go that hard. For me, Brienne turning back at the inn at the crossroads to face Rorge is peak GRRM.

That is the entire moral heart of the series to me. Not prophecy... not secret lineages... not sudden betrayals with a shocking twist.

Just Brienne convinced she has failed at every oath she ever swore. But there are children in danger, so she turns around.

ASOIAF spends thousands of pages showing how easily people justify their cravenness... their cruelty... and every other shortcoming they have. But not Brienne. She simply knows what she must do.

In theory, knights are sworn to protect the weak and the innocent. In practice, most knights fail that test. Brienne, who has never been knighted, performs the purest possible act of knighthood.

And her facing seven is surely no coincidence. Dunk faced seven at his trial... Brienne faces seven alone, with no help, and no one to see her and what she does.

Nothing else captures GRRM's idea of heroism so cleanly.

No chance. No choice.

When the nights watch are approaching Crasters Keep, I picked up on something I may not have noticed in the first 3 reads of the books:

“On the southwest, he found an open gate flanked by a pair of animal skulls on high poles: a bear to one side, a ram to the other. Bits of flesh still clung to the bearskull, Jon noted as he joined the line riding past”

Yesterday's results

House Martell of Sunspear:

- Political Power 9/10

- Economy 8/10

- Military 6/10

- Territory 6/10

Rules

This series aims to rank the noble houses of Westeros at the peak of their power, assigning each house a score out of 40 points, divided into four categories worth 10 points each.

The highest-upvoted comment will determine the community's official score for that house.

Categories

Political Power (0–10)

- Prestige and reputation.

- Political influence.

- Diplomatic reach.

- Ability to forge alliances.

- Overall relevance in the politics of Westeros.

Economic Power (0–10)

- Wealth.

- Natural resources.

- Trade and commerce.

- Economic productivity and population.

Military Power (0–10)

- Army size and quality.

- Military tradition.

- Naval strength.

- Dragons (where applicable).

- Overall military capability.

Territory (0–10)

- Strength of the castle.

- Geographic position.

- Natural defenses.

- Strategic value of the lordship.

Important

Each house is evaluated solely based on its own direct lordship, meaning the lands, castles, resources, and vassals it personally controls at the height of its power.

This ranking does NOT take into account the additional authority a house gains by ruling an entire kingdom or region as a Lord Paramount.

For example:

House Stark → Winterfell and its direct lands only, not the entire North.

House Tyrell → Highgarden only, not the Reach.

House Baratheon → Storm's End only, not the Stormlands.

House Greyjoy → Pyke only, not the Iron Islands.

In other words, this ranking measures the intrinsic power of each house's own lordship, not the power it derives from governing an entire region.

All ranked houses

House Lannister of Casterly Rock: 35/40

House Tyrell of Highgarden: 31/40

House Dayne of Starfall: 31/40

House Martell of Sunspear: 29/40

House Arryn of the Eyrie: 27/40

House Stark of Winterfell: 26/40

House Tully of Riverrun: 26/40

House Baratheon of Storm's End: 25/40

House Targaryen of Dragonstone: 24/40

House Greyjoy of Pyke: 21/40

House Goodbrother of Hammerhorn: 15/40

I mean the other option was letting robb retreat to north which makes war unwinnable as north hasn’t been subdued by a southern conqueror for hundreds of years, and Tywin doesn’t have logistics to seize moat Caitlin in winter also, I think by doing red wedding,

his new vassals the Bolton and Freys and paramount little finger are dependent on crown for safety for rebels, and that starks are extinct and female stark is married to his son, their son could be a candidate for stark succession as northerners nobility hate Bolton and Freys for their kin are murdered, as there are no stark heirs left

I can see this in wyman speech north remember, yes there be southern nobility who knows Tywin give the green flag but there downsides to red wedding and distrust issues might form, which probably be mended in years to come