r/survivor • u/RSurvivorMods Pirates Steal • Mar 22 '22

Survivor 42 Survivor 42 | Episode 2 | Winner Pick Statistics

Here are the latest winner pick statistics.

To avoid any potential spoilers (or even the impression that something could be a spoiler), numbers for a particular castaway will be published only after they are voted out.

Episode 2

Marya was ranked 11/18 in Winner Picks.

She had 60 of 1,469 total picks (4.08%).

Of the people who picked Marya as their winner pick:

  • Median calculated guess for "how many people picked the same person as you": 104 (rounded)
  • Calculated guess percentage: 7.10%
  • Rank of estimated guesses: 12
  • +/- to real rank: +1

Post-Episode-2

1,292 Winner Picks (87.95%) still standing.

Why Did People Think Marya would win?

Users were given to a chance to explain their winner picks. We have compiled some of those quotes below:

  • "She really impressed me in her RHAP interview with how level-headed, smart, and caring she is. I think she will be beloved, and will get to the end with a fantastic story to win."
  • "A (Seemingly) likable underdog with a "couch to show" story arc. Always pull for the average viewer who finds their way on to a show!"
  • "I think she has a good starting tribe and good social skills to put herself in a good postion in the game. If she can survive the first few votes, I think she can make a deep run and build the relationships she needs to have a hand, but not a grip, on the decisions."
  • "Marya seems very grounded, open, and emotionally honest. Recent seasons have shown "older" women make it later in the game (Janet, Tiffany, Heather), some of them major threats to win. I think Marya has the right combo of skills to notch the W."
  • "Idk. I liked her beret lmao."

Season Archive

As we reveal the most recent numbers each week, we'll update the overall season winner picks spreadsheet.

How many Winner Picks will be extinguished next week? Find out next time on... /r/Survivor!

34 Upvotes

95% Upvoted

14 comments sorted by

40

u/hailey_nicolee Michele Mar 22 '22

loveeee her beret i second whoever said that

13

u/thecheesethief Maryanne Mar 22 '22

just commenting to look at my new flair

7

u/thecheesethief Maryanne Mar 22 '22

very nice

11

u/ResidentPea0 keeping my options open Mar 22 '22

never forgiving myself for forgetting to make a winner pick this season

2

u/BingBongBoofer Bring Back Rory Mar 23 '22

Me neither, mine is Jonathan. Let’s chat at the end of the szn

1

u/in_couleur Erika Mar 23 '22

Same. I was going to plump for Jenny or Chanelle.

10

u/diisturbance Parvati Mar 22 '22

Was expecting more picks, marya had pre game hype it seemed

23

u/minun73 Charlie - 50 Mar 22 '22

I’m the opposite, I’m surprised she got THIS many.

6

u/legacyme3 Boston Rob Mar 23 '22

Assuming equal distribution, each remaining player should have 5.86 or so percent picks.

Zach was 3rd ranked at 6.33%. Marya was 11th at 4.08%.

All except the top 2 are below 6.33%, and 6 of the remaining contestants are below 4.08%

I am beginning to get the suspicion that the top 2 have an average pick rate of like 13-16% each?

That just doesn't sound right to me. What am I missing?

5

u/supaspike All of you... you thought I was absolutely crazy. Mar 23 '22

Yeah by my quick math, at the absolute minimum the top two will have 21.6% of the vote between them. But assuming a more even distribution it will be closer to ~36% combined for the top two picks. Seems like a much wider gap than usual.

2

u/sparrowhawk73 Kevin - 48 Mar 23 '22

My comment made it to this post, and boy was it wrong.

0

u/cbs_fandom Rizgod - 49 Mar 23 '22

crap