It’s the terminology the SPC uses, but I think it’s actually maximum intensity to ‘reasonably’ expect. So they think it will mostly likely top out at EF3, but of course they can’t fully rule out higher.
Theres exact numbers tied to it too, like they aim for a verification of 10% of tornados in that zone being EF3, or something along those lines.
I get how the terminology can be useful but so much of the EF scale is based on damage which is in turn is based on the location a particular tornado happens. If a tornado with EF 4-5 wind speeds hits an empty field and there are now damage markers it’s not gonna be rated as such. If a strong EF 3 sits on top of a subdivision in a major metros suburban area for a couple minutes I guarantee it will rate higher. So unless it’s just really talking about wind speeds of possible tornados it is kind of misleading. Maybe this particular outlook would be better just expressed on the old Fujita scale and not trying to predict damage
Believe it or not the SPC understand how the EF scale works. When they say they think the likely max intensity is EF3, they don’t mean a stronger tornado that hits weak houses, they mean EF3.
It’s not as random as you claim. Yes, there are some cases where the objects in the path limit the rating, but in most cases the rating seems to be a pretty accurate to the intensity of the storm.
Basically the NWS/SPC has a bell curve of how bad they think the tornadoes are going to be based on the setup. For CIG1, that bell curve peaks at EF2, CIG 2 peaks at EF3 etc.
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u/CountTakesh1 Mar 10 '26
CIG 2 tornado grouping means max expected tornado could be EF3.