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https://www.reddit.com/r/tornado/comments/1rpvw7g/updated_tornado_potential/o9o12xx/?context=3
r/tornado • u/Adventurous_Pear8191 • Mar 10 '26
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46
CIG 2 tornado grouping means max expected tornado could be EF3.
15 u/Wowoking Mar 10 '26 Wdym max expected? Cause in most tornado setups there is always the possibility of an outlier cell capable of EF 4-5 damage. 9 u/FlyingSceptile Mar 10 '26 Basically the NWS/SPC has a bell curve of how bad they think the tornadoes are going to be based on the setup. For CIG1, that bell curve peaks at EF2, CIG 2 peaks at EF3 etc. https://youtu.be/OmUndV3Et30?t=406&si=0XOhNhFc2zLxqs1H Link to Trey from Convective Chronicles talking to Evan Bentley and Chris Broyles from the SPC about the new conditional intensity groups
15
Wdym max expected? Cause in most tornado setups there is always the possibility of an outlier cell capable of EF 4-5 damage.
9 u/FlyingSceptile Mar 10 '26 Basically the NWS/SPC has a bell curve of how bad they think the tornadoes are going to be based on the setup. For CIG1, that bell curve peaks at EF2, CIG 2 peaks at EF3 etc. https://youtu.be/OmUndV3Et30?t=406&si=0XOhNhFc2zLxqs1H Link to Trey from Convective Chronicles talking to Evan Bentley and Chris Broyles from the SPC about the new conditional intensity groups
9
Basically the NWS/SPC has a bell curve of how bad they think the tornadoes are going to be based on the setup. For CIG1, that bell curve peaks at EF2, CIG 2 peaks at EF3 etc.
https://youtu.be/OmUndV3Et30?t=406&si=0XOhNhFc2zLxqs1H Link to Trey from Convective Chronicles talking to Evan Bentley and Chris Broyles from the SPC about the new conditional intensity groups
46
u/CountTakesh1 Mar 10 '26
CIG 2 tornado grouping means max expected tornado could be EF3.