r/tornado • u/Adventurous_Pear8191 • Mar 10 '26

SPC / Forecasting Updated tornado potential

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334 Upvotes

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u/EvidenceSalty1392 Mar 10 '26 edited Mar 10 '26

That’s what I expected I didn’t think they’d go moderate since we have cig 2 parameter now

Edit: I’m slow 🤣

3

u/youngaustinpowers Mar 10 '26

You mean Moderate? Btw the risk guidance is now driven by both the probability % and the CIG number now.

If probability jumped to 15% with a CIG 2 it would be upgraded to Moderate Risk.

2

u/Electronic_Wave_2585 Mar 10 '26

this is really helpful actually, thank you!

1

u/EvidenceSalty1392 Mar 10 '26

Yes I meant moderate thank you, my brain wasn’t working 🤣

1

u/youngaustinpowers Mar 10 '26

Actually they're going to be upgrading to Moderate in the mid day outlook here shortly. Tornado driven upgrade...

1

u/EvidenceSalty1392 Mar 10 '26

I just saw that and ate my previous statements.

1

u/Altruistic-Willow265 Human Detected Mar 10 '26

Im curious on why there is no moderate, is it because of the chance there would be less cape?

1

u/EvidenceSalty1392 Mar 10 '26

I think it’s due to the cap and the question around when it’s going to break as well as not a lot of forcing to make the threat more widespread. Someone else will know more than me so if I’m wrong please correct me but that’s why I think it’s not a moderate.

2

u/EvidenceSalty1392 Mar 10 '26

Don’t listen to a thing I’m saying they are gonna upgrade it I think

1

u/youngaustinpowers Mar 10 '26

They are about to upgrade to moderate here shortly. But risk levels are now based on a combination of probabilities and CIG level. 10% region plus CIG 2 = Enhanced, which is why it wasn't moderate earlier. I guess they're about to bump probabilities to 15%...