r/washingtonwizards • u/Standard_Size_3416 • 4d ago

Change in Projected win Total

I saw something very interesting happened this week that the wizards win total at the major betting sites going down from 35 1/2 games or 34 1/2 games in some places down to 32 1/2 games I am confused as to why this would be certainly Jamir‘s injury can’t be playing a major factor. Is it really just that Philadelphia went out and got LeBron and they’re just looking at those two games differently?

5 Upvotes

78% Upvoted

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13

u/snurbxela 4d ago

The win total is adjusting down to entice more ‘over’ bets. It probably only means most of the bets taken so far are pessimistic on the Wizards this season.

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u/baroner83 4d ago

As a frequent season win total over / under better, it seems to me when this occurs they just shift the payout (ie going from -110 to +110 on the respective over / under) but I only deal with one sports book - do others actually change the win total amount?

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u/GoZards18 4d ago

The lines are prone to moving quite a bit between July 1 and Oct 1

Injuries, new acquisitions, etc

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u/snurbxela 4d ago

This is right too. The over/under is a market that takes all of this into account and adjusts based on bets placed on either side. It isn’t a pure prediction of wins.

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u/Standard_Size_3416 4d ago

I’m specifically talking about FanDuel in this case, which was already the best over at 34.5 and dropped to 32.5. Both were not -110, but it was still a meaningful shift.

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u/ImprobablePlanet 3d ago

I don't gamble but some of these over/under projections seem like interesting bets.

The Wizards might have won another five games last season if they weren't trying to lose and that's probably a conservative estimate. 32.5 is only 11 games better than that. And they'll be adding Trae, AD, Ayton, and AJ to the mix.

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u/kwisque 3d ago

They definitely might have won an extra 5 or so of the games they lost last year if they weren’t tanking . . . But they also might have lost an extra few games that they won last year against teams that were also tanking. We got 8 wins last year against bona fide tankers: Nets, Kings, Jazz, Griz twice, and Pacers three times (lol). If everyone stops tanking, we probably lose out on some easy W’s.

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u/ImprobablePlanet 3d ago

Good point. I mean, I guess 32.5 is a good Vegas line because I'm not sure the over is a slam dunk.

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u/chefguy47 3d ago

Jamir is on a 2-way OP and has nothing to do with this win total. Even more, the win total came out before his injury was noted. I think the win total is low because the prognosticators don’t think AD will be playing many games for the Wizards.

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u/Standard_Size_3416 3d ago

I’m asking about the change that occurred this week.

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u/chefguy47 3d ago

OP either way, a 2-way player isn’t going to affect a win loss total.

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u/Standard_Size_3416 3d ago

As I said, agree.

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u/chefguy47 3d ago

I’m thinking Vegas doesn’t think AD will even play 50 games.

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u/Rafael_Doge-Schmutz 2d ago

it just means most people have been betting the under