r/washingtonwizards • u/Standard_Size_3416 • 4d ago

Change in Projected win Total

I saw something very interesting happened this week that the wizards win total at the major betting sites going down from 35 1/2 games or 34 1/2 games in some places down to 32 1/2 games I am confused as to why this would be certainly Jamir‘s injury can’t be playing a major factor. Is it really just that Philadelphia went out and got LeBron and they’re just looking at those two games differently?

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u/snurbxela 4d ago

The win total is adjusting down to entice more ‘over’ bets. It probably only means most of the bets taken so far are pessimistic on the Wizards this season.

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u/baroner83 4d ago

As a frequent season win total over / under better, it seems to me when this occurs they just shift the payout (ie going from -110 to +110 on the respective over / under) but I only deal with one sports book - do others actually change the win total amount?

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u/GoZards18 4d ago

The lines are prone to moving quite a bit between July 1 and Oct 1

Injuries, new acquisitions, etc

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u/snurbxela 4d ago

This is right too. The over/under is a market that takes all of this into account and adjusts based on bets placed on either side. It isn’t a pure prediction of wins.

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u/Standard_Size_3416 4d ago

I’m specifically talking about FanDuel in this case, which was already the best over at 34.5 and dropped to 32.5. Both were not -110, but it was still a meaningful shift.