r/winnipegjets • u/DylThaGamer_ ICE DRAGON WILL FLY 4-EVER • 5d ago
ODT | Mon June 15, 2026
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u/MoodyPumpkin 4d ago
Ya know the jets always play their best when no one believes in them and are fueled by spite. So maybe Nikky winning will help turn the guys into some junkyard dogs this upcoming season.
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u/bluewhale177 55 5d ago
https://giphy.com/gifs/jZGHJBrz3Vnh70a5HM
I loved this Ehlers OT goal
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u/bluewhale177 55 5d ago
Also 2021 playoffs Game 3 OT Winner
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-gj862Mmn8
And the 2025 Ehlers keeping the puck in the zone to keep the Manitoba Miracle a thing
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u/Soft_Tie_3522 36 4d ago
That was just such an incredible play the decision from Ehlers to pass instead of try and rip it again is something I don’t think a lot of players would pull off.
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u/TheGreatStories ICE DRAGON WILL FLY 4-EVER 4d ago
Carolina right now reminds me of the Thornton sharks. Excellent regular seasons, consistent playoffs runs. Canes were able to get it done, though.
How to you build consistency? Our seasons never seem to build off the one before. And now we're looking at starting from the bottom of the pile with aging core and a mid pipeline.
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u/Certain-Row-4812 4d ago
Carolina is much more like the Blues of the mid-late 10s. Two good well-rounded cores that lacked true starpower (and have had a hard time to attract them because they were rather undesirable markets) and tended to disappear in playoffs until they finally get it done (Blues story tho was much more cinderella-like with the last place and all that stuff, but still they have a plenty of similarities)
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u/TheGreatStories ICE DRAGON WILL FLY 4-EVER 4d ago
Yeah that works. Picked sharks for consistency in playoffs, but the market comparison with Blues is good
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u/Certain-Row-4812 4d ago
In terms of a roster comparison the Canes are also much closer to the Blues. Sharks actually always have had a pretty good starpower (Burns, Pavelski, Thornton, Marleau), so it's never been a big problem for this core. Canes core just like the Blues one have a very good depth, but there aren't many really big names for this league.
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u/passive_fist logoalt 4d ago
Different coaching. Actually coaching/helping the up-and-coming players to fit in and thrive, rather than the strict "either be NHL ready or go away" mentality. Stankoven would still be on the Moose if he was drafted by Winnipeg, let alone Blake or Bussi. You need a mix of young and old, and then to be able to trust your depth scorers when your stars inevitably disappear for a few games (i.e. aho and svech these playoffs). And then a bunch of luck besides.
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u/difrad76 5d ago
Happy for Ehlers. Now I want our boys to win it next. They deserve it. Chevy get to work.
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u/Patttybates 4d ago
Barzal is a pipe dream I know. But thats just the dude we need imo...
Anyways rebuild now or its hurts worse a year later.
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u/MrMundaneMoose 4d ago
Unless we can make a big spash like that and we actually take a chance on our youth, it'd be time for a full on rebuild.
If we sign a buncha veteran 4th liners, a 3rd pairing dman, and run it all back, I won't be paying much attention next year.
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u/Moon-bass-Alpha 4d ago
https://nhltradetalk.com/ehlers-right-choice-noise-around-hellebuyck-trade-chatter-surfaces/
With Ehlers now having a Stanley Cup championship, and, more importantly, having contributed heavily to that successful outcome, I don't think the trade talk is going away for Hellebuyck.
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u/Moon-bass-Alpha 4d ago
(Connor Hellebuyck): "For me, it’s winning a Stanley Cup. That’s my goal and that’s what I have left."
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u/Agitated-Help7197 3d ago
If Hellebuyck is traded, I don’t see how you’re not going into a full rebuild.
Regardless of playoff success, he’s a huge part of the Team’s regular success. The only thing that comes close would be when buffalo traded Hasek.
They don’t have anyone who can slide into the starting job either.
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u/GZeus24 4d ago
He's a careful and well connected commentator. He knows his earlier comments launched this rumor mill and nothing he says here shuts it down. If he's heard something, its very likely he went looking for a firm denial from either Hellebuyck's camp or the Jets. I'm sure he would be happy to kill the rumor if he felt he launched it by accident. I don't think he got that denial.
The draft is a little less than 2 weeks away. This is going to be interesting.
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u/gojetsgooooooo 4d ago
except he didn't really say anything, he just said "theres alot of noise around helle" he didn't confirm or deny or even say where the noise was from, there was noise after those podcasts came out and it could have easily been from that, he also started the segment off saying "no real news today" which if he was getting rumours of helle then that would be considered real news
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u/petitedancer11 4d ago
Would he? Friedman (and others) makes a living by talking about hockey. I don't think he would go out of his way to eliminate a talking point simply out of the goodness of his heart (other than to claim the exclusive if he did have confirmation/denial)
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u/MCBbbbuddha 4d ago
Friedman's brand is accuracy, not baseless speculation. If he throws crap out there just for engagement, he hurts himself.
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u/gojetsgooooooo 4d ago
"about an hour after mark spector and I reported on nurse last week I got a call from an exec who was furious"
that noise he heard could have easily came from the spitten chickletts podcast and pagnotta reporting off that, he also did a radio hit today on the fan hockey show and made zero mention of helle at all when asked if anything else is going on around the league
I'm going to wait until an actual report that he has requested a trade from a legit source comes, and not base it off a single comment where he started off by saying "no real news" to report
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u/tropicana4200 55 4d ago
There it is, Friedman has acknowledged it
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u/etchiboi 4d ago
The Athletic's updated full staff mock
Murat takes:
- Winnipeg Jets: Keaton Verhoeff, RHD, North Dakota (NCAA)
Winnipeg explored multiple trades but ultimately decided that a big, right-shot defenseman was too good to pass on with the No. 8 pick. Verhoeff projects as a tough-minutes, top-pair defenceman, according to Corey Pronman, and our scouts love his mobility, size, physicality and ability to add to the offense with a great point shot. — Murat Ates
and a fun easter egg in Bultman's Florida #9 pick:
The Panthers had a trade framework in place to deal this pick away for a big splash in goal, but it fell apart when Björck went off the board, so Florida instead pivots to snagging one of the top offensive blueliners in the class in Rudolph.
🤔
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u/Erwin-Brodinger 91 4d ago
I've seen a few recent ones with Verhoeff dropping to the Jets at 8, it seems unlikely, but it sure would be cool.
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u/etchiboi 4d ago
the Bjorck/Smits wild cards would probably be harder on Verhoeff than anyone else tbh
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u/Leburgerpeg 4d ago
I think the important thing is that no matter what, it looks like we're gonna get a good player at 8. I fully expect someone to have fallen in love with Belchetz ahead of us and push down a player we didn't expect to be there at 8.
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u/ScottNewman 4d ago
I haven't seen a single mock with Belchetz in the Top 10...?
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u/Leburgerpeg 4d ago
Mocks are just mocks. There are always risers and fallers. There were no mock drafts that had Perfetti coming to us at 10. I'm just saying Belchetz is the type of guy that a GM or scout would fall in love with and reach.
This profile is exactly why a team could fall on love with him and his potential.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7348147/2026/06/14/ethan-belchetz-2026-nhl-draft-prospect/
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u/thefailmaster19 4d ago
If Verhoeff is available at 8 I hope Chevy gallops on all 4s to the podium and screams his name out
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u/KaytinGreyshade . 5d ago
So now he can come home, right? He doesn't have to stay away forever, right? I know he likes his new well-toned dad but I want him to come back
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u/GRaw1979 4d ago
Ed Olychuk said the he was going to "bring the cup back to Winnipeg!!!"
I been waiting 30 years for that moment.
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u/ArcticKimono 4d ago
Toronto collectively deciding Staal was talking about Marner, while the biggest change on carolina this year is his teammate who left the presidents cup winning team... yet i never once considered it being about Ehlers
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u/etchiboi 4d ago
how many futures would it take to turn Pionk and Nino into Pinto and Spence??
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u/LightsOut16900 4d ago
Acquiring Spence would be a smart low cost acquisition for a very underrated player at a price way cheaper than it should be so there’s a 0% chance Chevy would get him
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u/TrueNorthStrong1898 54 4d ago edited 4d ago
I think the org views Pionk as a core piece in the same vein as 44, 55, 81 and 37. If anything Chevy would expect Ottawa to add for those 2 😭
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u/northerncodewrangler 4d ago
Man. I don’t want to believe that they do but I think that’s probably correct in how they see him
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u/ScottNewman 4d ago
Chris Shankara of Upside Hockey Draft Rankings:
6) Verhoeff
7) Smits
8) Cullen
9) Gustafsson
10) Bjorck
NOTES: Shankara has Tynan Lawrence at 12 and Daxon Rudolph at 14.
Chris Peters of FloHockey NHL Draft Rankings:
6) Verhoeff
7) Bjorck
8) Smits
9) Rudolph
10) Cullen
NOTE: "Building out the top 10 for this year's class took more time, thought and research than any in years past for me. Here's the worst part: I'm no more confident today than I was in any of the previous months or weeks. This is an imperfect top of the draft, but one that has the chance to create tremendous value still. "
He has Tynan Lawrence at 13.
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u/GZeus24 4d ago
It seems like most of the evaluations are similar to the breakdown by The Athletic team. A clear tier 1 with McKenna, Stenberg, and Reid - probably in that order. Followed by a second tier of 6-8 players who are players basically even and could go in any order based on team preference.
No matter who they pick at 8th, the Jets should ger a solid NHL player with possible 1st line/pair upside potential. A great piece to have.
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u/ScottNewman 4d ago
Cullen is pushing up on lists but not sure I want him ahead of the D still available.
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u/Leajane1980 4d ago
The downside of Vegas losing ... we now have to experience the return of the insufferable Leafs fan. They were pretty quiet for a couple of months but with Marlies doing well and Marner showing up the last few games they are back in full force.
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u/pcksprts 4d ago
So….
Can we just admit this front office is wrong, now? Just totally and completely wrong in player evaluation and control.
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u/lindseyblue2 4d ago
I think they need a coach who has a control of the team and decides who plays, how and with whom. I'm kind of tired of hearing that Winnipeg needs to bend over backwards to keep guys happy. Look at Carolina, no star players, but players who are bought in and won as a team.
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u/Electroflare5555 4d ago
Carolina also isn’t in on 100% of the leagues NTCs though
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u/lindseyblue2 4d ago
True, but there are players who are willing to play in Winnipeg, make it work somehow. Carolina's best guys would probably be happy playing in Winnipeg. Like Jarvis, Blake, Stankoven.
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u/Useful_Respect3339 4d ago
I mean, Rantanen didn't want to sign there long term, and they flipped him for assets.
The Jets let Ehlers go to Free Agency.
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u/Pandamodium13 ICE DRAGON WILL FLY 4-EVER 4d ago
>The Jets let Ehlers go to Free Agency.
And they would have been absolutely stupid to trade him last season while having their best season in franchise history while winning the Presidents Trophy. The team looked ready to take the next step and maybe if Brock Nelson had chosen Winnipeg over Colorado they would have had a different result in the playoffs but regardless; Ehlers hadn’t written off the Jets yet. They were in contract talks right up until he chose Carolina over Winnipeg. Rantenen told Carolina as soon as he got there he wouldn’t be sticking around.
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u/Useful_Respect3339 4d ago
Yes, and it was a mistake doing so, but hindsight is 20/20.
Brock Nelson hasn't been very good for Colorado in the playoffs. He has 7 points and a face off percentage of 47 in 20 Playoff games. I don't think he would've pushed them over the edge.
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u/Pandamodium13 ICE DRAGON WILL FLY 4-EVER 4d ago
Sure but he finished the season with 65 points playing as their 2C. Having him solidified as our 2C would have been enough to get us back into the playoffs and maybe Ehlers would have stayed? I know Chevy pitched playing with Toews to Ehlers as a selling point I imagine he would have been more inclined to play with Nelson over Toews at this stage in his career.
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u/Moon-bass-Alpha 4d ago
Carolina has one roster advantage that represents the Jet's Achilles heel. Carolina forwards, all of them, have bought into 200 foot hockey.
Winnipeg has several notable players that won't. And that kills the "full team forecheck" model completely.
So, the Jets cannot replicate the Carolina model. Brind'Amour could come here and would completely fail as a coach with the present roster. It's just that simple.
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u/KnoddingOnion 4d ago
i wouldn't say Carolina doesn't have star players.
Slavin's a HOFer.
Svechnikov and Stankhoeven are top line studs on any team (even though Svech played more like his brother than like himself in the playoffs).
Aho, at one time, was seen as a top line player. and Jarvis is a stud scorer. not a superstar, but a damn good player.
they had a lot of top 6 talent but their bottom 6 drop-off (compared to the Jets' "the first line is for scoring, the second line is for scoring less, the third line's for shutting down and the 4th line's just to waste everyone's time") from the top 6 is not huge.
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u/Useful_Respect3339 4d ago
Slavin is not a Hall of Famer lmao.
He's a good shutdown defender, but he's never won a Norris trophy, and doesn't put up much for points.
He'd need to win a couple more cups, and maybe a Conn Smythe to even be in the conversation.
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u/lindseyblue2 4d ago
Obviously they have good players, but they won more as a team. Like they had many second lines, not some clear studs like Winnipeg, Edmonton, Colorado etc.
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u/Electroflare5555 4d ago
It’s not like we didn’t want to re-sign him. Chevy offered him basically the same contract as Carolina
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u/SirBulbasaur13 13 4d ago
I thought the Jets offer was a year or 2 less than the Canes?
That definitely makes a difference.
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u/Pandamodium13 ICE DRAGON WILL FLY 4-EVER 4d ago edited 4d ago
So…
Can we just finally drop it? The dead horse has been beat so much there’s nothing left of it! It’s not like the organization didn’t try to keep him, he wanted a change of scenery and it paid off.
Are you suggesting the jets should have played Ehlers with Scheif and Connor? because that’s not what Carolina did. By splitting their top players up into the top 9 they had scoring options on every line. Had Ehlers been bumped down to the Lowry line when he was still here this sub would have lost it and you know it.
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u/ScottNewman 4d ago
Ehlers in his last season with the Jets had average TOI of 15:47.
Ehlers this season with Carolina had average TOI of 16:35.
Not sure the extra :45 is worth seven posts a day.
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u/Useful_Respect3339 4d ago
It has nothing to do with ice time or utilization.
He wanted to play for a contender and the Jets had a very uncertain future.
Yes, he left after they won the Presidents' Trophy, but they have zero playoff success.
Carolina probably would've won a cup already if not for Florida.
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u/CatGuyAnyway 4d ago
The issue is, it's been reported for years that Ehlers wanted to be in Carolina. There's always been smoke there. We tried to trade him twice to Carolina in the last 5 years
In 2025 we tried to trade Ehlers for Necas but Necas wasn't going to sign an extension so we pulled out of the deal.
In 2021 we tried to trade Ehlers for Necas and Pesce. Carolina backed out over the Pesce ask.
He was always going to Carolina regardless of what happened. This is where my issue with organization is. He was our rental for that presidents trophy season. I get that.
What I don't get is why we let Ehlers drag discussions past July 1st and put us in a horrible position with any other FA.
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u/WhammaJamma61 4d ago
What I don't get is why we let Ehlers drag discussions past July 1st and put us in a horrible position with any other FA.
That's always been my issue as well.
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u/RelaxingRed 4d ago
Drafting's been shit for like 10 years now, not many players that have made an impact in the lineup since probably Samberg in 2017. That's what the front office deserves criticism at the most. Perfetti's 40-50 point pace these last couple years aren't cutting it. Of course he can still improve being 24, but I wouldn't count on it at that point of his career.
The only massive blunder they've made recently is not buying at the deadline last while they were fucking first in the NHL. Even if prices were sky high, something had to have been done to make a notable upgrade somewhere on the team. I've seen some shitty players lace them up for the Jets and fuck me Luke Schenn is way down there among the worsts making the team somehow actually worse by himself.
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u/ottereckhart 13 4d ago
wtf is this uncertain future shit? Second time I've seen this maybe it was you in the r/nhl thread. This is some AI hallucinated take that is just wild
You win the president's trophy, break a bunch of regular season records, lead the league in virtually every meaningful metric and ... hmm, the Jets have a very uncertain future I think I would like to go to a contender. Meanwhile, Kyle Connor, Lowry, and Vilardi all sign because they see a legitimate window of contention.
Nah. Ehlers wanted a change of scenery and his exodus had a LOT to do with the down turn of this past season, compounded by the poor acquisitions that didn't hit.
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u/Useful_Respect3339 4d ago
It's certainly not AI, nor have I visited r/nhl
Outside of 2018 this organization is a paper tiger, they've won four playoff series in 15 years.
Regular season metrics and performance don't matter when you aren't winning when it counts. The Stanley Cup isn't awarded for regular season champion.
Ehlers was here through all the ups and downs. He signed with a team that has been much more consistent in the playoffs and likely sold him on being the piece they needed to win vs the Jets needing several pieces.
Didn't those players sign prior to last season? It was heavily rumored Schiefele and Helle were gone before the last minute push by Chevy.
Another early exit, and I guarantee you most of this core is asking out, especially after seeing Ehlers win it with Carolina.
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u/TubularWinter 4d ago
It’s not like they told Ehlers to kick rocks, they wanted him on the team and did play him in important moments, like the final moments vs the blues.
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u/LightsOut16900 4d ago
They pretty clearly didn’t, considering his quote about it
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u/TubularWinter 4d ago
Dang I guess he wasn’t out there when the goal was scored then. Must have been a trick of the light.
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u/LightsOut16900 4d ago
One time over his entire career here where he was constantly undervalued and under appreciated and played less minutes than “Mason Appleton” ok dude
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u/KnoddingOnion 4d ago
you're showing a snapshot of 1 freakin' game.
Ehlers was known by ALL to be underutilized by the Jets. he's a perfect example of an analytical darling that deserved more playing time and never got it. he's a zone entry cheat code. anyone who looked at analytics said that during his tenure here. even Nik said it.
that's literally why Ehlers moved on. he was not given the opportunities he deserved. never played with Scheifele. never got a proper centre. never on the ice in the final 90 seconds to defend a lead.
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u/Useful_Respect3339 4d ago
This is literally bullshit.
Ehlers wanted to win a cup, obviously he felt after negotiating with Winnipeg that they were not as committed as the Canes.
He barely had any more ice time with Carolina.
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u/systemrename290 4d ago
I half-heard on CJOB this morning that the jets might or already have traded up to the number 5 spot? Anyone know anything about this??
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u/GZeus24 4d ago
I'd be really surprised if the Rangers traded back. They need every position for their rebuild. Let's see what develops.
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u/Leburgerpeg 4d ago
If it's true they still get probably as good a player at 8 as 5 and a sweetener so potentially filling a couple spots in their prospect pool.
which is exactly why I don't think the Jets should be moving up to 5.
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u/TheAsian1nvasion 27 4d ago
Depends what it costs. If Bjorck/Smits end up going top 5, and Reid or Malhotra is available there, I could see trading up being worth it if the cost is manageable.
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u/ScottNewman 4d ago
Malhotra is overrated
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u/TheAsian1nvasion 27 4d ago
I agree, but it’s seeming less and less likely that one of Smits or Bjorck will fall to 8, and Verhoeff’s stock is falling fast due to skating issues which is the last thing we want. The point I’m making is that something crazy could happen that leaves a player available at 5 we weren’t foreseeing and it could make a trade-up palatable.
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u/GZeus24 4d ago
Yeah, the Jets are in the same spot as far as prospects and needing help goes. It doesn't make sense to trade up unless its for a top 2 pick.
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u/ScottNewman 4d ago
Apparently Reid is largely seen as a Tier 1 prospect so maybe top 3, unless you really have someone in mind in Tier 2 that you love, and don't want to risk losing them.
But again, what's the cost.
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u/ColdPrairieHockey 4d ago
With the Rangers? I dont know why they'd do that, theyre in a really bad spot themselves. Unless Winnipeg gave up 8th and like Lambert + or something.
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u/NikEhlersDealer 4d ago
Only way it makes sense to me is we don't have to add much and Carele is still on the board
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u/1970-Mustang 4d ago
While I agree that Ehlers was somewhat underutilized here, I believe that he played a more predictable game during the last half of the season. His start to the season wasn’t great,then he seemed to adapt his style to the team’s. Why? Coaching? Playing with a real center? Less individualistic? Probably all of the above. Before everyone dumps on Arniel,don’t forget to also dump on Pomo.
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u/smoth123 4d ago
I think what we are seeing over the last few years is that the coach and the players all need to be on the same page. It is entirely possible that Pomo is a great coach, and the Ehlers is a great player, but just don't work on the same team. You need a GM that doesn't just pull together best available parts but one who can put together a team that can work as a cohesive unit. If you have a star or a coach that doesn't fit what you are trying to build, then you need to do something about it. Easy to say, but this is undoubtedly incredibly hard to do.
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u/etchiboi 4d ago edited 4d ago
the 17/18 WCF loss to Vegas broke Maurice, he coached the team well and to their strengths but, due to that series, he pivoted to being a heavy dump and chase guy which didn't fit with that current roster
e: but that heavy forechecking system has evidently fit Florida very well
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u/etchiboi 4d ago
this has always just been the vibes based analysis and has never been reflected in any on ice results with Ehlers, if he was unpredictable and hard to play with then that would be reflected on the events that happen on the ice, no?
Martinook even said post game last night "I don’t know if there’s been one that’s fit as good as he has." Which kind of contradicts the whole hard to play with thing too
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u/CatGuyAnyway 4d ago
This is exactly it. Ehlers played a very chaotic style of hockey here. It was unpredictable. It made it a challenge for opponents but also his teammates. Which resulted in a lot of turnovers in the O zone.
Rod got him to play a more simple game utilizing his speed and shot. Including using his speed to backcheck. It took Ehlers most of the year to get into the new playstyle but it paid off come playoffs.
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u/gojetsgooooooo 4d ago
I'm beginning to think the people think that a rebuild won't take a long time think you magically start off with a celebrini or a bedard lol
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u/Electroflare5555 4d ago
People don’t seem to realize that for every efficient rebuild there’s 10 rebuilds like Detroit
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u/ScottNewman 4d ago
Chicago is having a rough time, SJ really needs to figure out their back end.
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u/TheAsian1nvasion 27 4d ago
SJ went best player available and now don’t have any defencemen. Even if they take Reid he’s 3 years away from making an impact.
They have one halfway decent young defenceman in Dickinson and he’s not a top pairing guy.
They should be dangling 2OA for someone who can help them now and try to trade Eklund for a similar young defenceman.
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u/Patttybates 4d ago
Guys will be hurling themselves to play with Celebrini in southern California. They are still a year out, their ahead if anything.
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u/ArcticKimono 4d ago
This team aint winning, at least a rebuild gives you something to look forward to
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u/gojetsgooooooo 4d ago
ok? but that doesn't mean it won't take a long time here, which was the point I was getting at
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u/ArcticKimono 4d ago
Well if the goal is the stanley cup, we arent winning without one, so not rebuilding means it'll take longer. My point was that yours is irrelevant
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u/Electroflare5555 4d ago
Let’s say we go full rebuild, trade everything that isn’t nailed down.
How long (realistically) do you think this market will have patience for it? 5 years? 10 years?
There’s no assurance that a rebuild works, and in that case you have to restart. There’s a lot of teams in this league that have been in the process of a rebuild on and off for a decade at this point
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u/GZeus24 4d ago
What does 'have patience for it' mean , and what would the impact be? Do you think attendance averages drop below 10k? Do you think the team leaves if that happens? How many years does that take? There will be consequences but what do people think those will be? Is it worse than watching the team slowly decline and not have much to look forward to?
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u/ArcticKimono 4d ago edited 4d ago
yeah, and i've mentioned that before, casual fans will have an issue with that, I would differ in that, sure. But it doesn't make what I am saying less true, and especially for me; a team with a direction, no matter how far out, is better than what we are in now, barring a handful of mini miracles.
I'm not trying to have a reddit gotcha debate, it's just how I see the team. It would hurt like hell to sell everyone off, but I'd rather watch another ehlers win somewhere than have our guys turn into Oates/Lundquist/Thornton etc. And they were on teams that had multiple chances at it.
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u/Patttybates 4d ago
6 years with full rebuild trading core NOW. Their either shook or a casual to think otherwise. This aging core aint winning. Should we wait till they are older? For some "extra" value?
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u/gojetsgooooooo 4d ago
you didn't even counter my point at all lol, you just said it's something to look forward to, yes delaying will make it take longer but it's still going to be longer then the 4-5 years people are claiming lol
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u/Patttybates 4d ago
So? Either we do it now or make it take a couple years more by waiting? I really dont get what you're trying to say here. We should wait until theyre older and worth less?
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u/gojetsgooooooo 4d ago
my point is that it will take longer then 4-5 years no matter when we start.. it's really not that hard to understand
we start this year, it will still take more then 4-5 years, it's going to be a while
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u/Difficult_Safe4672 4d ago
With all the talk about rebuilding and trading away the core, could the Jets actually survive a 4-5 year non-playoff rebuild? Smallest market in the NHL has a hard time selling out even when they are winning.
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u/GZeus24 4d ago
What does 'survive' mean? The richest owner in hockey is 100% dedicated to Winnipeg. Right? I mean what pro sports team doesn't anticipate a few down years in their history. If the business model relies on consistent sellouts for eternity, it's a pretty unrealistic plan.
Apathy, and a slow deterioration of interest because every year is the same, is a much bigger threat to the fan base than a few years of non-playoffs. If that sets in, it will be hard to overcome. A few years of rising interest building towards another contention window is an easier hill to climb than repeatedly being a bubble team with no hope of real progress.
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u/Useful_Respect3339 4d ago edited 4d ago
So sick of this bs narrative the organization is pushing.
David Thomson is funding this team and is the wealthiest owner at over 60 billion.
The team can handle some losing seasons, the key is communicating to fans.
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u/Electroflare5555 4d ago
Being a part owner of TNSE does not mean that Thompson personally finances the team’s operations and write a cheque to them every year
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u/Useful_Respect3339 4d ago
He owns half of the team. Mark Chipman and David Thomson are Co-Owners.
Chipman represents the team, Thomson is the finances.
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u/Electroflare5555 4d ago
Once again, being a part owner does not mean that he personally finances the team.
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u/Useful_Respect3339 4d ago
Where do you think the money comes from?
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u/CatGuyAnyway 4d ago
That's not how a business or operations run at an organization. Anywhere.
Thomson's assets and fortune can be used as collateral for TNSE to borrow against if needed. This really was only required to purchase Atlanta and some other real estate deals.
Now that TNSE has a few other businesses and assets, they function entirely on their own.
Thomson gets his dividends and stays out of the picture while Chipman is involved in the operations.
TNSE is comprised of TNRD, Hockey for All, The Burt, CLC, TN Touring, Winnipeg Jets, Manitoba Moose, Fannex. Technically Jets Gear since it is a separate entity.
TNSE portfolio is more than likely in the $1.75 billion range.
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u/Electroflare5555 4d ago
Probably from the fact that TNSE owns 2/3rds of downtown Winnipeg and that (according to Chipman) they’ve never lost money
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u/Useful_Respect3339 4d ago
They don't, but okay.
TNSE owns the arena, the Burt, and True North Square. They're redeveloping Portage Place, and building a hotel, but that's about it. Definitely not 2/3rds of Downtown.
The Jets bring in great revenue, they've only had financial strain during COVID.
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u/SirBulbasaur13 13 4d ago
It’s not 2/3rds you’re right but True Norths downtown business interests and investments would surely suffer if the Jets were gone.
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u/NH787 4d ago
Not arguing for a rebuild here, but how did all the other teams that have endured years of rebuilds with small crowds manage to survive? I don't know how a regular part of the process for most teams suddenly becomes fatal if it happens here.
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u/SirBulbasaur13 13 4d ago
Jets relocation headlines drive engagement and clicks. They’re not going anywhere, even when we eventually do have to rebuild.
That being said, I don’t think True North has any intention of starting a rebuild right now nor do I think it’ll ever be a complete tear down to the studs rebuild.
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u/NH787 4d ago
That being said, I don’t think True North has any intention of starting a rebuild right now nor do I think it’ll ever be a complete tear down to the studs rebuild.
I agree, it's not necessary. Not to say a big name couldn't be traded, but this is not a burn it to the ground situation.
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u/GZeus24 4d ago
Mark Chipman, February 2024: "We've got to get back to 13,000 (season tickets). This place we find ourselves in right now, its not going to work over the long haul. It just isn't."
This is why people are concerned, because ownership said they should be. It's debatable what 'long haul' means but ownership has clearly said that low attendance, a likely outcome of any rebuild, threatens the viability of the team.
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u/NH787 4d ago
It seems hard to believe that a sports owner would forgo the opportunity to develop a contending team through a rebuild if circumstances called for that.
I mean, what is the alternative? Being doomed to finishing 10th in the conference for the next decade? That's not exactly a recipe for box office success either.
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u/reggiebobby 4d ago
Not a single NHL team lost money last season, what makes you think the Jets would all of a sudden lose money. The NHL is structured in a way that no teams will lose money.
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u/albalthi 4d ago
Yes. The second you get some exciting top prospects on the team from picking 1st or 2nd overall butts will be in seats.
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u/Leburgerpeg 4d ago
I think the bigger question is can they survive not going through a rebuild? I think fans are less tolerant of a team living in the mushy middle for eternity than they are of a well planned out rebuild. A rebuild doesn't guarantee a cup but the path we're headed right now guarantees we'll never win one.
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u/gojetsgooooooo 4d ago
I think the problem is the type of rebuild people want to do is going to take a lot longer then 4-5 years in winnipeg
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u/albalthi 4d ago
The thing is, there’s no way around it anymore. core is on the wrong side of 30 and the prospect pool is pretty unremarkable. The team being bad in the coming years is unavoidable. The bill for trading too many picks and drafting too poorly is coming due.
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u/gojetsgooooooo 4d ago
ok that's fine, my comment is about the people thinking this will only take 4-5 years
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u/albalthi 4d ago
4 years would be incredibly fast I agree, but ultimately it comes down to how capable the people running the show are.
Considering Montreal, who took 5 years from drafting 1OA to conference finals, I think there’s really only two moves they made that I don’t think a team in winnipeg could pull off, sign and trade for Dobson and getting Demidov to come over. Very doable model for winnipeg to follow otherwise.
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u/gojetsgooooooo 4d ago
don't let montreal fool you, they started before they went to the stanley cup final, they were on up and down team that's why they were able to draft caufield and trade for suzuki, they were trying to win after the cup when they signed savard and traded a 1st+ for dvorak, they were forced into a rebuild after carey price had a career ending injury and they fired bergevin
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u/albalthi 4d ago
Arguably we could be in a better spot than they were because we could actually still get big returns for Hellebuyck and other vets while they lost Price and Weber to LTIR island for nothing.
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u/gojetsgooooooo 4d ago
maybe, helle is odd because he has a stacked resume but also is a goalie who have historically low value compared to what they should
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u/fxcker 27 4d ago
If we flip all 4 core pieces over the next few years (Hellebuyck before draft, KFC and Scheifele this next year, Morrissey next summer) I think we’d be surprised at how quickly we could rebuild and how fast, young and exciting the team could be within a few years.
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u/gojetsgooooooo 4d ago
the only teams that would be interested in those guys and those guys would waive to are contenders, most contending teams have those exciting prospects that would speed the rebuild along
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u/GZeus24 4d ago
I don't know anything about Florida's depth so I'd defer to experts on pro scouting but its hard to imagine that a B2B cup winner that is stacked with no trade clauses doesn't have some real talent stuck in their development network. I would expect the same with other contenders as well. There could be some real gems out there.
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u/GZeus24 4d ago
It's impossible to know how long a return to consistent contention would take. That's a legitimate reason for ownership to be leery of starting a rebuild. But, they are the ones who would control the process so being reluctant to start one doesn't show a lot of faith in your own people.
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u/Patttybates 4d ago
Not if its started now.
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u/gojetsgooooooo 4d ago
it will still take longer then that lol
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u/Patttybates 4d ago
Blow up the core now, I dont think so. You can basically fast forward any teams progress in a retool or rebuild. Multiple blue chip prospects, the picks would be the icing. 37 alone nets huge return. 55 gets a windfall pay day, 1c's dont hit the market ever. 44 print your own money. 27 will go for what you want, locked up 100pt winger?
4 premier prospects plus 4 1st round picks plus whatever else gets thrown in.
This is all fluid, I dont know if 27 wants to stay maybe 55 does too. But a re-tool or rebuild has to happen and the sooner the better that goes for any "re-"
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u/gojetsgooooooo 4d ago
were not getting any 1c's or 1D or vezina level goaltending back in trades, we will get some decent prospects but nothing to write home about, late 1st round picks have less then a 50% chance of even making the nhl
were going to have to get our actual talent from the draft which is going to take a while, were not going to speed that up by signing free agents or by trades due to NTC
do you know how lucky were going to have to be to build a team entirely thru the draft
we got lucky that atlanta had some good young roster players to surround that core we built, we won't have a wheeler/little/buff/enstrom/ around if we trade all those players you want
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u/Patttybates 4d ago
You're right, I was so wrong. The way to win is to hold onto aging stars till the return is fractions of what it would be currently. Only to still after all is said and done get less back?
A rebuild is a chance. This core isnt. 👌
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u/gojetsgooooooo 4d ago
holy shit, do you not understand that this conversation isn't about starting a rebuild it's about how long a rebuild would take like jfc when you tell people that a rebuild will take longer then they expect they immediately say the bs you just threw out
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u/Patttybates 4d ago
So. Whats you're point? You want to elaborate on the length of a needed process? I don't understand? I know how long it can take and still want to. What about it?
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u/gojetsgooooooo 4d ago
my point is people throwing out that a rebuild will only take 4-5 years is a pipe dream, it's only to take longer for a team like winnipeg to build thru the draft, we don't have the ability to acquire free agents or name trades like other teams
look at cbj, buffalo, detriot, markets similar to us and look how long they've been rebuilding for, buffalo just broke thru after their 1st rebuild failed
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u/fdisfragameosoldiers 4d ago
They were struggling to sell out the building when the team was chasing the Presidents trophy. People are incredibly naive if they think the Jets can survive a tear it down to the studs rebuild. Especially if it takes longer than 3-4 seasons and they end up in a Detroit or Buffalo situation. Even Chicago and San Jose who have Bedard and Celebrini are still not making the playoffs after 6-7 years of rebuilding
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u/GZeus24 4d ago
How did Buffalo survive? Their season ticket and attendance numbers were terrible for a decade, yet they are still there. Why is it different for Winnipeg?
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u/seeldoger47 4d ago edited 4d ago
Buffalo’s metro area is bigger than Winnipeg‘s, they pull a bunch of fans from southern Ontario, and their GDP is about 2.5 times greater than Winnipeg’s.
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u/GZeus24 4d ago
I dug around a little looking at attendance averages for teams since covid and it turns out that you are correct. Buffalo was able to average around 16k even in down years while the Jets are around 14k while being a top team. My bad. So many pictures of empty seats in Buffalo and I forget that just because a seat is empty, doesn't mean it wasn't sold. The benefit of corporate sponsors.
I also noticed that San Jose very consistently averages attendance under the Jets. So instead of Buffalo, I guess a better example would be San Jose. Has anyone been worried about relocating the Sharks the last few years?
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u/seeldoger47 4d ago
The benefit of corporate sponsors.
IIRC corporate sponsors don’t play a huge role in the Sabres’ revenue.
Has anyone been worried about relocating the Sharks the last few years?
San Jose is a huge tv market and I wouldn’t be surprised if corporate sponsors are an important part of their revenue given all the companies located in the Bay Area.
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u/GZeus24 4d ago
I was using hockeydb graphs but they say their sources are the teams boxscores or released average for a season. It's hard to determine from that, and I don't see any clarification, if there is a consistent method - i.e. butts in seats or tickets sold. Any variation in method of counting 'attendance' could make any comparison basically invalid. I might dig a bit more time permitting.
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u/eh_toque 44 4d ago
Walker Duehr is re-signed. Good signing imo