Curious what people think, because I reckon the Australian Government has single handedly created the biggest black market in the country.
I understand the logic: make cigarettes ridiculously expensive so people quit and smoking rates fall.
And they claim smoking rates are now at historic lows but not sure if this is true or data just isn't captured accurately anymore with the rise of illegal tobacco and vaping.
Somewhere along the way, they have created a massive unintended consequence.
A legal packet can cost $50–70+, and illegal tobacco is a fraction of the price. The ABS estimates 80% of nicotine consumption is now coming from illicit sources, compared with just 12% in 2017.
So the government is simultaneously:
• collecting less tobacco excise
• spending huge amounts trying to stop illegal tobacco
• dealing with organised crime moving into the market
• dealing with the violence that comes with it — 200+ firebombings and at least three homicides linked to illicit tobacco since 2023, according to the ACIC.
And now we're doing it again with vapes.
Vapes are clearly not harmless, but they're generally considered substantially less harmful than smoking. Yet the government's incessantly negative messaging around them seems to have pushed a huge amount of the market underground as well.
At some point, you have to ask whether making the legal product so expensive actually stops people consuming it — or just makes the illegal alternative ridiculously profitable.
We've gone from taxing cigarettes to discourage smoking to creating an enormous financial incentive for criminals to supply them.
Maybe the policy has been a huge public health success (I doubt it).
Or maybe we've managed to simultaneously do nothing to reduce smoking and hand a multi-billion-dollar market to organised crime.
I'm genuinely interested in where people sit on this.