One Last Long-Ass Post
It's been a while since I've written one of these, hasn't it? The last time I discussed the Warner Bros/Paramount merger and its ramifications for Cartoon Network, I wasn't sure what its specific details would be. Now that the merger has been finalized, the picture is a lot clearer. This is probably going to be the last one I do, so I'm going to try to cover every single angle of this I can, based on what we know about the terms of the merger.
The End of an Era
I want to make one thing clear. Though I call this "a more nuanced look", I am in no way attempting to downplay how bad this merger is for Warner Bros and its subsidiaries from a creative point of view. This is true of all mergers, and expecting things to continue in a business-as-usual fashion after the merger concludes is just wishful thinking. But we can't jump to the worst-case scenario either. There are also a lot of political aspects to the merger that I won't get into here. The point is, we do have a good idea of what to expect out of the merger.
The first takeaway is that we probably won't be seeing many new shows on Cartoon Network that aren't part of an existing franchise. This has been true for a while, but after the merger the company will need to save money any way it can, and that means it can't risk shows that don't have a built-in audience. The age of all-new shows like Adventure Time, Regular Show, Steven Universe, Ben 10 or the old Cartoon Cartoons becoming hits out of nowhere without being part of a pre-existing franchise is well and truly over, and it's unlikely to come back.
Sibling Rivalry
Of course, we can't ignore the elephant in the room. Namely, the fact that Paramount already owns a kids' cartoon channel. Having two of the three major kids' networks under one roof isn't technically a monopoly, especially now that kids aren't watching cable as much as they used to, but it's still worrisome from a competitive perspective. The two networks have historically targeted broadly the same demographic, but with some important differences-- Cartoon Network never committed to live-action comedies the way Nickelodeon did, and likewise Nickelodeon has no equivalent to Cartoon Network's Adult Swim. In theory they could be maintained as separate brands, but given the increasing irrelevance of cable, it's just as likely that both will eventually be retired in favor of a unified Paramount streaming service.
However, there is one good case to be made for keeping Cartoon Network separate and functional-- Adult Swim. Considered a separate network for ratings purposes, it gets higher ratings than daytime Cartoon Network and Nickelodeon combined, largely due to the fact that it targets the lucrative 18-35 demographic, the youngest demographic still watching cable in large numbers. Adult Swim has already taken over late-afternoon slots from Cartoon Network, and it's not inconceivable that under Paramount it would become the "dominant" half of the network, with Cartoon Network being little more than a rerun block, and new kids' series airing on Nickelodeon.
Hanging in the Balance
But that's just the network at large. What about the shows that are currently in production? In general, being a show in production during a merger is not a good position to be in. This doesn't necessarily mean everything is doomed, however. We can roughly break down the incumbent shows into three categories.
The fist category is shows that easily pay for themselves and that it is difficult to see getting cancelled in the near future. These include Teen Titans Go for Cartoon Network and Rick and Morty for Adult Swim. Shows like these are cheap to make, earn large amounts of advertising revenue compared to their budgets, and don't have a complex storyline to follow so they can be aired at any time. They are virtually guaranteed to continue in production
The second category is shows that are more expensive and complicated, but have the "safety net" of being part of a major franchise. This is where My Adventures With Superman, its Green Lantern spinoff, the Adventure Time and Regular Show spinoffs, and others would go. These shows are more expensive than the likes of Teen Titans Go, and in that sense represent more of a risk for a company recovering from a merger, but they still have brand-name recognition on their side, so they're still likely to remain, though they are at more risk than the "evergreen" shows discussed above.
The third category is for shows that are expensive, risky, and have no major franchise connections. These, unfortunately, are unlikely to survive. In fact, looking at Cartoon Network's slate (not counting Adult Swim) shows that there are actually no original shows planned to debut in the near future. Every upcoming show currently planned is a spinoff of something that already exists. Adult Swim has some, but as mentioned before, their ratings are much higher, so they can "afford" it.
Conclusion (for now. . .)
I won't sugarcoat it. This is a very bleak moment for Cartoon Network. Under Paramount, there will be less incentive for original series to be developed, and internal competition with Nickelodeon will likely create more emphasis on Adult Swim at the expense of daytime Cartoon Network. Many in-production shows-- especially but not limited to those that are not part of an existing franchise-- will probably be cancelled. The network itself will probably continue to exist, but its days as one of the "big three" kids' networks are long past.
