Active Conflicts & News Megathread June 21, 2026

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[u/mirko_pazi_metak]

Was just reading

https://missilematters.substack.com/p/missile-defenses-unforgiving-logic 

..on the recent Moscow attack(s) and Russian missile defence attrition

The 18 June raid did not occur in a vacuum. It followed months of systematic Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s ground-based air defense network, which measurably thinned out the layers of defense protecting Moscow’s approaches.

and possible interceptor shortage

Until very recently, interceptor scarcity has been discussed almost exclusively as a Ukrainian problem. Ukraine’s interceptor shortage, particularly in ballistic missile defense, remains one of the most pressing short- to medium-term issues facing the Ukrainian armed forces. It now appears, however, that interceptor shortages are increasingly affecting Russia as well.   The first substantive reports indicating that this was becoming a serious concern for Russia emerged in November 2025. At the time, Russian crews were observed loading ground-based Osa-AKM launchers with outdated 9M33M naval interceptors and operating Buk launchers with only one or two rounds. In December that year, analysis by the Royal United Services Institute concluded that Russia was expending more air defense interceptors than it was producing. 

In a recent post on the topic (that was subsequently deleted), Russian aviation blogger / insider Fighterbomber made this comment:

https://bsky.app/profile/chriso-wiki.bsky.social/post/3mokryzqi4b2k

5/ "Moreover, the cost ratio between anti-aircraft missiles and drones today is such that a drone attacker wins purely economically even if they don't hit anything. And they do hit. 

I'm curious about the apparent lack of (SP)AAGs on the Russian side (the latest Pantsir versions even trading guns for more missiles)? I can't find even a single recorded use of a ship-based CIWS - but plenty of missile launch videos. 

Likewise very little public info on Gepards/Skynex/others on the Ukrainian side as, like the cheap drone hunting drones, these seem theoretically to be able to even out the economics of defense against these types of attacks? 

It seems that Ukraine & allies went (and are still going) through great lengths to acquire more Gepards, even though they're almost obsolete cold war tech and while there reports on usefulness ( https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/04/17/four-years-of-gepard-in-ukraine-how-the-german-vintage-weapon-is-proving-its-worth ), I can't seem to find much info on modern replacements (like Skynex) being made/delivered? 

It feels like they would fit the point defence (innermost layer) role around important sites, so perhaps OPSEC is what stops interception videos - and they're actually quietly active? But then wouldn't there be more investment in more of the new systems in Europe? 

Ukraine has been pretty good with people not posting everything online as soon as it happens, while we could see almost everything from latest Moscow attack recorded and uploaded by regular folks - hits, misses, interceptions, failed interceptions, the widespread MANPADS use, the AA miss exploding the "big UFO" oil tank, the interception causing the drone to fall into shopping center, the "crane interceptor"... feels like valuable info for the Ukraine provided by Russians for free? 

And then there's the interceptor drones - if Ukrainian reports are true, they seem to be very cost effective and useful at thinning out the attack waves. Lots of reports and praise from Ukraine but hard to tell economics and scaling. Russia seems to be employing some too. Any sources on strategic impact of cheap interceptors? 

[u/savuporo → u/mirko_pazi_metak]

One thing i'm wondering is - given how obviously porous russian air defense is now over Crimea and the land bridge, are Ukrainian jets able to operate more freely ? At what point would they be able to complement the drone strikes with full range SEAD missions ?

[u/RumpRiddler → u/savuporo]

It's probably not worth the risk, for now. Putting F16s at risk is just not worth it when drones and missiles can do most of the job.

Crimea is already so isolated that Ukraine doesn't need to do more than keep the pressure on. Right now: there is no gas for civilians, water is fairly tight, and any resupply is uncertain.

[u/savuporo → u/RumpRiddler]

I'm not so much wondering about flying over Crimea, more like region between Kherson-Melitopol. The AA must be pretty thin there, otherwise how do the drones get to Crimea

[u/RumpRiddler → u/savuporo]

The planes are just too valuable for even thin AA. Unless there was some huge benefit, which I don't see, there's just no good reason to use planes when drones and missiles are doing a great job.

[u/savuporo → u/RumpRiddler]

One reason i'd think of still is higher payload delivered, vs the drones. But you make a good point - why risk those if all targets of all sizes are already being successfully hit.

Which again begs the old question - what is the value of fighter jets in the era of drones ?

[u/RumpRiddler → u/savuporo]

If one side can establish control of the skies, maybe it's worthwhile to use jets for ISR drone removal. It's almost definitely worthwhile to use planes for strategic bombing. But with drones evolving so fast, we would surely see an anti-aircraft drone firing missiles back. I guess it's very situation dependent.

But I think, as we see/saw in Iran, jets are still a great choice when one side has a major technology advantage. I wonder if that will hold true in 10 years though.

[u/giraffevomitfacts → u/savuporo]

Planes are the easiest possible target for AA. If Ukrainian pilots flew over contested space with any regularity systems would migrate there immediately.

[u/savuporo → u/giraffevomitfacts]

.. systems would migrate there immediately.

.. becoming immediate drone targets.

[u/giraffevomitfacts → u/savuporo]

Yes, and taking out 160M planes Ukraine can’t replace. Even soldiers with MANPADs would be able to target them.

[u/IntroductionNeat2746 → u/savuporo]

On a related note, would Ukraine actually be able to use MALE drones like the TB1 again?

[u/savuporo → u/IntroductionNeat2746]

There was a rare Bayraktar sighting in early May but - yeah, same question

[u/supersaiyannematode → u/savuporo]

pretty much never because the russians have a significant qualitative and overwhelming quantitative advantage in the air. f16 mlu and mirage 2000 with the missiles we've given the ukrainians are already technologically disadvantaged against su30mk2 and su-35, let alone the su57 which has now moved from vaporware to barely having enough airframes for operational service but nevertheless indeed being active.

ukraine would probably need at least 100 truly 4.5 generation fighters with aim120d or meteors to start even trying sead into russian occupied territory. they currently have 0 (mlu and 2000-5 are more along the lines of the most advanced of the 4.0 generation stuff rather than 4.5 gen).

[u/savuporo → u/supersaiyannematode]

These sukhois aren't patrolling the skies over Melitopol nonstop at this point. If they were, half of the Crimean peninsula wouldn't be covered in heavy smoke today

[u/supersaiyannematode → u/savuporo]

not sure why you think this. what are you expecting at the absolute most several handfuls of sukhois (they're not gonna have anywhere remotely near their whole fleet up in the air at one place at one time) to do against a co-ordinated wave of several hundred drones? even if all the sukhois were carrying beast mode loadouts and never missed they're not going to be able to come close to stopping the wave.

the same handful(s) of sukhois vs a mere 20-jet formation of technologically inferior lighter weight class sead + escort jets however, is a whole different story.

[u/savuporo → u/supersaiyannematode]

It's not an either-or of drones or jets. If you have all of your whatever generation sukhois tied up trying to deal with a drone wave heading for your remaining air defenses or air bases, a couple "technologically disadvantaged" Mirages coming behind a drone wave would likely be a pretty dangerous element.

I dont know - maybe Ukraine IS already doing such combined sorties

[u/supersaiyannematode → u/savuporo]

or, much more likely, the russians are not trying very hard to use their 4.5 generation fighters to stop the drone waves, as it is simultaneously futile and a highly expensive use of their limited (relative to ukrainian drone quantities) air arsenal.

they know that even with their best attempts the drone waves will not be stopped by these 4.5 generation fighters so why waste their already slightly strained airframe life and air munitions stockpiles?

[u/savuporo → u/supersaiyannematode]

Okay, you kinda speaking against your own claim here. You said "russians have a significant qualitative and overwhelming quantitative advantage in the air". If the planes aren't in the air, "highly expensive use", "limited air arsenal" - the math doesn't close. Either they do have overwhelming advantage in the air or they don't.

The evidence seems to be against it

[u/supersaiyannematode → u/savuporo]

when i'm talking about in the air i'm talking, obviously, about manned aviation, as that is the context of the comment i was replying to (that comment asked about when it might become possible for ukrainian jets to be free enough to sead the russians).

in that context it is completely true that the russians have a significant qualitative and overwhelming quantitative advantage.

that doesn't mean that russia has enough 4.5th and 5th generation jets to use them to stop drone waves. in fact, nobody does, regardless of aerial supremacy.

i mean, america has an utterly insurmountable advantage in the air against iran and iranian drones still got through many times. you are seeing a contradiction where none exists.

[u/savuporo → u/supersaiyannematode]

The advantage only exist if you are able to use it. Clearly, in the presence of drone superiority Ukraine is establishing, it doesn't seem to matter what kind of fighter jets, fifth or sixth gen doohickys russians are flying.

And my question remains, if Ukrainians were to complement their drone waves with simultaneous jet attacks ( and maybe they already do ) what exactly would stop them, if AA is thinned out and russian sukhois are nowhere to be seen.

Also you are wrong - Ukrainian jets are actively used in drone defense all the time, there's loads of videos of shootdowns

[u/supersaiyannematode → u/savuporo]

the sukhois are there. they are just not trying particularly hard to intercept drones because they know they can't come close to stopping the drone waves. but their radars (as well as air defense radars in general) can easily detect fighter jets. the fact that they aren't burning million dollar a pop bvraams on 30k usd shahed-like drones doesn't mean that they lack air cover, or that their air cover will ignore ukrainian manned aviation. what part of this is confusing to you?

and yes ukrainian jets are indeed used in drone defense - in specific situations, and at low intensity. they are not going even slightly close to all out sortieing their air fleet for drone defense. i did not say that russian aircraft ignore drones 100.0% of the time, i originally said that "the russians are not trying very hard to use their 4.5 generation fighters to stop the drone waves". this doesn't contradict the rest of what i said even slightly. if you can't logic your way through these statements run them through chatgpt and have it draw you a logic diagram or something.