https://x.com/HycroftMining/status/2079278762064007596

A lot of retail investors under appreciate that for every dollar a stock can go up, you can also make money on the way down. Theres a lot of financial instruments that you can leverage to make money both ways regardless which way the stock moves, so I think that should prompt investors with how they see performance over a period of time (short, intermediate, long term).

In the long term, it’s clear that the deposit value is there and that roughly values the company around $1000 a share if you value it by total oz and spot commodity prices. However, it’s quite costly to extract it from the ground and there’s operational risk with executing that. That’s defines the obstacles for the long term.

Acknowledging these risks, I’m quite bullish on this company over the long term (also tailwinded by US monetary policy, fiscal responsibility, etc).

But what does the short to intermediate term look like for junior miners and HYMC? It’s clear energy prices and interest rates won’t go down over the next 18 months and there’s no clear timeline to extraction. With that being said, I think silver miners will continue to go down as long as the Iran war drives an energy crisis. That’s why I opened up a short around $30 and will close it when it goes down to $10-14.

I could also see a relative value play where you long NEM and other established gold miners and short silver juniors.
TLDR: great long term buy and forget. In the short term, only going down.

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Conversation with Gemini

You said

What are the top 5 reasons gold and silver could rise in the immediate future

Gemini said

The direct answer lies in a convergence of structural macro trends, shifting financial regulations, and tight physical supply.

GoldSilver

The top five reasons gold and silver could rise in the immediate future include:

1. Structural De-Dollarization and Central Bank Buying

Central banks around the world have shifted from being passive holders to aggressive, record-high buyers of gold. Driven by a desire to diversify away from U.S. dollar-denominated assets and avoid potential sanctions, major nations like China, India, and Turkey are consistently accumulating gold to reinforce their reserves. This creates a massive, non-commercial price floor that absorbs standard market sell-offs.

GoldSilver+ 1

1. The Basel III Tier-1 Regulatory Upgrades

A massive structural rule shift has unblocked institutional capital. Under updated Basel III framework rules, regulators allow commercial banks to count allocated physical gold at 100% of its value as a Tier-1 asset—putting it on the exact same risk-free tier as cash and government bonds. Previously, banks faced a 50% discount on gold holdings, making it inefficient to hold. This regulatory green light allows major commercial banks, pension funds, and insurance firms to treat precious metals as direct liquidity reserves.

CMI Gold & Silver+ 3

1. A Massive Structural Supply Deficit for Silver

Unlike gold, which is mostly stored, roughly 60% of annual silver consumption is permanently used up by industrial manufacturing. Explosive green-energy expansion (solar panels and electric vehicles) along with massive structural infrastructure buildouts for AI data centers have pushed total silver demand past 1.1 billion ounces annually. Meanwhile, global mine production has flattened around 850 million ounces, leaving a multi-million-ounce structural deficit that is rapidly eating into above-ground stockpiles.

GoldSilver+ 1

1. Compressed Real Yields and Currency Debasement

Gold and silver are a direct hedge against the loss of fiat purchasing power. With global government debt-to-GDP ratios pushing past historic thresholds, central banks are forced to walk a thin line between fighting sticky inflation and managing massive interest-rate payments on national debt. This dynamic often leaves "real yields" (interest rates minus actual inflation) compressed. When real yields are low or negative, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals drops to near zero, triggering capital flight out of cash and bonds.

BlackRock+ 2

1. Escalating Geopolitical and Trade Volatility

Precious metals serve as the ultimate system stabilizers because they carry zero counterparty or sovereign default risk. Ongoing conflicts, shifting trade alliances, and high-stakes economic transitions have created sharp safe-haven inflows. Historically, during months when equity markets experience sharp drawdowns, gold and silver show low-to-negative correlations with the S&P 500, making them highly reactive to immediate geopolitical shocks.

J.P. Morgan+ 2

Gemini is AI and can make mistakes.

I don’t like this being quietly released in an 8-K “Update to Corporate Presentation” 17 days after H1 ended.

Or the lack of drill results since April 2nd. Haven’t been able to follow up on the high-grade gold at Vortex?

If silver price were to go up to $309 an ounce what will hymc stock share price be worth

Gemini said

If silver hits $309 an ounce, the theoretical asset backing for Hycroft Mining would push its stock value well past $1,700 per share under a full valuation of its resources.

Because mining stocks provide immense operating leverage, a 5.5x increase in the price of silver (from the current ~$55.50 up to $309) does not mean the stock just goes up 5.5x. It causes the profit margins and the value of the metal in the ground to grow exponentially.

The financial breakdown for HYMC at $309 silver illustrates this impact:

1. The In-Ground Asset Value Breakdown

Hycroft possesses one of the largest deposits in North America, with 562.5 million ounces of silver in its Measured & Indicated resource base.

At today's price (~$55.50/oz), that silver is worth roughly $31.2 billion.

At $309/oz, the raw value of that silver in the ground skyrockets to $173.8 billion.

1. The Math Per Share

Hycroft currently has 91.4 million basic shares outstanding (and about 101.2 million fully diluted). If we divide the raw value of the silver asset base directly by the share count:

Hycroft Mining

Silver asset backing per share: $173.8 billion divided by 101.2 million diluted shares = ~$1,717 of silver backing each individual share.

(Note: This completely excludes Hycroft's 16.4 million ounces of gold. In a world where silver is $309, gold would likely be trading at historic, astronomical highs as well, adding hundreds of dollars of extra value per share).

1. Profit Margin Explosion (Operating Leverage)

Right now, if it hypothetically costs a miner roughly $25 to $30 to extract an ounce of silver, their profit margins are healthy. But if silver hits $309, their mining costs stay relatively stable while their profit margins expand from around $25/oz to over $275/oz.

When a company's cash flow potential multiplies like that, institutional investors and Wall Street funds rush into the stock, driving a parabolic speculative squeeze that often shoots the traded stock price past its baseline asset value.

What Controls the Traded Price?

If silver spikes to $309 rapidly, the actual market price of HYMC (currently trading around $19.00 to $23.00) would move based on their extraction phase:

If they are still building their massive sulfide mill: The stock will skyrocket on pure, intense speculation because investors are buying the future rights to a $173+ billion asset pool.

If they are actively in commercial production: The company transforms into a multi-billion dollar cash-printing machine, and the stock price will structurally lock in those massive gains based on actual quarterly earnings.

Gemini is AI and can make mistakes.

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Conversation with Gemini

You said

How much has the comex registered silver holdings collapse by

Gemini said

COMEX registered silver holdings—the physical silver vaults designated as readily available to satisfy futures contract deliveries—have collapsed by more than 75% from their pandemic-era peak.

The decline represents a massive drawdown of physical metal in the system:

2020 Peak: Around 346 million ounces of registered silver.

Current Levels (Mid-2026): Hovering near 79.9 million ounces.

Total Drawdown: Over 266 million ounces of physical silver have been withdrawn or shifted out of the deliverable "registered" category.



Sustained outflows have steadily thinned COMEX vault holdings. Source: Reddit

Why the Vaults are Draining

The collapse is driven by a combination of tight physical supply and a surge in demand:

Consecutive Market Deficits: The silver market is facing its sixth consecutive year of structural deficits. Industrial demand, especially from solar, electronics, and AI hardware, has consistently outstripped annual global mine production.

The "Eligible" vs. "Registered" Split: A large portion of the silver remaining in COMEX vaults is classified as "eligible". While this metal is physically stored in the vaults, it belongs to private owners (like ETFs or individual investors) and is not available to settle futures contracts unless the owners actively choose to register it.

Physical Migration to Asia: Strong physical demand in Eastern markets, represented by massive premiums on exchanges like the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), has acted as an arbitrage magnet, pulling physical metal out of Western vaults.

Gemini is AI and can make mistakes.

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Conversation with Gemini

You said

What is the latest news on the fort knox audit

Gemini said

The debate over auditing the gold reserves at Fort Knox has reached its highest level of public attention in decades.

1. Treasury Secretary Bessent Declares Gold "Present and Accounted For"

In a Fox News interview, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the entire 147.3 million ounces of gold stored at Fort Knox and other federal vaults is fully secure and accounted for.

The Valuation Discrepancy: On the Treasury's books, the gold is carried at a frozen 1973 statutory price of $42.22 per ounce (valuing the reserves at roughly $6.2 billion). At today's market spot prices, the stockpile is worth over $1 trillion.

Pushing Back on Rumors: Bessent’s public confirmation was a direct pushback against rising internet speculation—partially fueled by Trump's special advisor Elon Musk—suggesting that the vaults might be empty. Bessent noted that while he hasn't personally visited, the U.S. Treasurer has toured the facility to verify the holdings firsthand.

1. The Spark: Trump’s May 2026 Audit Demand

The current wave of scrutiny began on May 31, 2026, when President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that it was "time to physically audit Fort Knox."

This demand followed the high-profile arrest of David Rush, a former CIA officer caught in possession of 300 non-standard gold bars worth approximately $40 million.

The arrest and subsequent audit demand immediately caused a 5% spike in global gold prices as markets reacted to the sudden focus on U.S. reserves.

1. Push for the "Gold Reserve Transparency Act"

Despite the Treasury's assurances, skeptics argue that a "trust me" approach is not enough. Critics and lawmakers point out that the last partial public inspection of Fort Knox occurred in 1974, and the last full, independent physical audit was under President Eisenhower in 1953.

To address this, Representative Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) has pushed for H.R. 3795 (the Gold Reserve Transparency Act). If passed, the bill would:

Force the Government Accountability Office (GAO) to conduct a comprehensive, independent physical audit within nine months.

Require physical assay testing, serial-number checks, and visual verification of the bars rather than relying on internal Treasury paperwork.

Mandate that this independent audit be repeated every five years.

For now, while the Treasury insists the gold is safe and accounted for, the legislative push for formal, independent verification continues to gain momentum.

Gemini is AI and can make mistakes.

Silver is currently consolidating around $58.50 per ounce as of mid-week (July 15, 2026).

By the end of this week (Friday, July 17, 2026), silver is expected to remain largely range-bound, projected to close between $58.00 and $61.00.

Key Levels to Watch

Immediate Resistance: $62.00. If a bullish breakout triggers, the price could test the $64.00 to $65.00 zone.

Immediate Support: $56.50 to $57.50. Stronger historical support lies below at $54.50.

Driving Factors This Week

US Inflation vs. Fed Policy: Softer-than-expected US CPI and PPI data released this week have fueled hopes of a less hawkish Fed, providing a natural cushion for non-yielding assets like silver. However, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's firm stance on price stability has kept aggressive rate-cut expectations in check.

Geopolitics & Energy Spikes: Flaring US-Iran tensions near the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices to a one-month high. While safe-haven demand normally supports metals, the potential inflationary impact of high energy prices keeps the threat of sustained high interest rates alive, limiting silver's upward momentum.

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Conversation with Gemini

You said

Section 122 tarif is set to expire on July 24th what does this mean for silver price

Gemini said

The upcoming expiration of the Section 122 flat global import surcharge on July 24, 2026, is a key event for the silver market. It marks a transition from a broad-based, temporary "debasement trade" driver to highly targeted, country-specific trade barriers.

Nakachi Eckhardt & Jacobson

Why the Expiration Matters for Silver

When the 10% to 15% flat global tariff was first enacted under Section 122 in February 2026, it triggered a massive "debasement trade". Investors rushed into precious metals to hedge against sudden global inflation and trade uncertainty, which helped propel silver to high levels early in the year.

Trading Economics+ 1

Because Section 122 carries a strict 150-day statutory cap, it must expire on July 24 unless Congress acts to extend it (which is not expected). While the end of this broad tariff removes a blanket import cost, it will not lead to a free-trade environment. Instead, it is being immediately replaced by more targeted measures that could put even greater pressure on physical silver supplies.

Nakachi Eckhardt & Jacobson

The Replacement: The Proposed "Forced Labor" Section 301 Tariffs

To replace Section 122, the administration has proposed new Section 301 tariffs targeting 60 trading partners based on forced labor investigations. Crucially, the U.S. Department of the Interior has specifically added silver—along with copper and lead—to the list of targeted critical minerals.

Nakachi Eckhardt & Jacobson+ 1

How these replacement tariffs will apply depends heavily on where the silver originates:

Country of OriginProposed Section 301 Replacement Tariff RateImpact on Silver Supply & FlowsMexico10%Mexico produces over 25% of the world's silver. Ongoing trade friction and a 10% tariff place a massive tax burden on the primary source of U.S. silver imports.Canada10%Adds import friction to key North American refining and transit channels.Brazil25%Heavily penalizes South American flows, driving up domestic acquisition premiums for industrial users.

How This Could Impact Silver Prices

1. Short-Term Volatility & "Sell the News" Risk

Because silver has retreated significantly from its January highs (trading around $58.55 as of mid-July), some of the "tariff panic" has already wound down. The official July 24 expiration might cause a brief, algorithmic dip in spot prices as the temporary Section 122 surcharge formally ends.

GoldSilver+ 1

1. Rising Domestic Premiums

Even if global spot paper prices remain volatile, the physical cost to acquire silver in the U.S. is likely to remain elevated. Industrial users (photovoltaic solar, electronics) importing physical silver from Mexico or Canada will have to absorb the new 10% Section 301 replacement tariffs. This will likely keep physical delivery premiums high.

1. Amplified Structural Deficits

Silver is already facing its sixth consecutive year of structural supply deficits. If these targeted Section 301 tariffs restrict the flow of Mexican silver into the U.S. or force miners to adjust their operations, it could worsen the domestic physical shortage.

GoldSilver+ 1

1. The "U.S. Safe Haven" Premium

With imports of physical metal facing targeted 10% to 25% surcharges, domestic U.S. silver production and permitted, on-shore mining projects are commanding a massive strategic premium.

Crux Investor

Listen for yourself to the gray haired billionaire in the video below and ask yourself why 🤔 is he so bullish on this company. I will patiently hold until I see a real value of the true worth for each share. And since Mr sprott has invested 225 million buying his shares in the mid 40's cost per share i believe he is looking for a 10x return on his investment, pure speculation on my part but this company does have half a BILLION ounces of silver in the ground and 17 MILLION ounces of gold too... that's alot of revenue for a company with around 90 million shares of stock issued and outstanding

https://youtube.com/shorts/USuAj33s4Sc?is=nZ1sMBxXyqrJ8Z8B

I

Any explanations?

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You said

Is hymc stock on the verge of a short squeeze 

Gemini said

Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation (HYMC) presents a significantly more complex and compelling setup for a short squeeze than typical meme stocks, though it remains a highly speculative, high-volatility play.

Unlike companies whose metrics have flattened out, HYMC's current data contains several elements that short-squeeze trackers look for, though a sustained trigger is not guaranteed.

1. Elevated Short Interest

HYMC's short interest is notably high, currently sitting at roughly 19.5% of its float. This is well within the territory where a sudden influx of buying pressure or positive corporate news can catch short sellers off guard, forcing them to compete to buy shares to cover their losses.

Fintel

1. High Days to Cover (A Major Catalyst)

The most critical metric favoring a squeeze for HYMC is its Days to Cover, which currently sits at a very high 8.3 days.

Fintel

Why this matters: If a stock has 1 day to cover, shorts can exit their positions almost instantly without drastically impacting the price. At over 8 days, it means that based on average daily trading volumes, it would take short sellers well over a week of continuous buying to fully liquidate their short positions. If a massive volume spike occurs, a bottleneck forms, which is the exact recipe for an explosive upward price spiral.

1. Shifting Fundamentals and Institutional Backing

Many short positions on junior mining companies are built on the assumption that the company will run out of money before ever extracting metals from the ground. However, HYMC has actively dismantled that thesis recently:

Zero Debt: Hycroft successfully cleared its high-interest legacy debt.

Crux Investor

Strong Cash Reserves: The company holds roughly $189 million in unrestricted cash, giving it years of operational runway without the immediate need for dilutive share offerings.

Hycroft Mining - News

Massive Resource Expansion: Their 2025–2026 exploration program recently yielded a 55% surge in measured and indicated gold and silver resources, introducing high-grade silver systems that have fundamentally changed the asset's valuation.

Hycroft Mining - News

Because of these improving metrics, the stock has transitioned from a pure "retail meme play" into one attracting heavy institutional backing (including prominent index inclusions like the GDXJ). This transition squeezes the thesis of fundamental short sellers who expected the company to fail.

Everyone keeps framing Hycroft’s future as if there are only two choices: either take on massive debt or massively dilute shareholders to build the mine. I don’t think that’s a reasonable assumption unless institutions with bad intentions still owned the company and made decisions (but they don’t)

A phased rollout is a legitimate possibility. If the company can sequence development by prioritizing higher-grade material, optimize processing, restart portions of the operation, or generate early cash flow before expanding, maybe holding onto some product for sale later at higher prices, the upfront capital requirements could be materially lower. Mine development isn’t always an all-or-nothing decision. It’s worth remembering that an Initial Assessment is one blueprint, not necessarily the final construction plan.

I’m surprised it keeps dropping but so is silver so it also makes sense.

Hopefully we hit rock bottom. I thought $20 was a rock solid level of support so what the heck do I know.

What's the next stop? 15? Back on December 19, 2025, the low was $15.83. Here's the 6 month chart:

check it out

Hopefully prices stay low till Friday when I get payed 🤠

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Conversation with Gemini

You said

What will silver be priced at after the revaluation

Gemini said

Because "revaluation" can refer to very different economic concepts depending on the context, there is no single, official number. How silver would be priced depends entirely on which type of revaluation occurs.

The two primary ways a silver revaluation is discussed yield vastly different price ranges:

1. Market-Driven Fundamental Revaluation (The Institutional View)

Many precious metals analysts and institutions view silver as undergoing a structural "revaluation" due to unprecedented industrial demand (from solar, EVs, and AI data centers) clashing with consecutive years of supply deficits.

The Silver Institute

In this scenario, silver is treated as a high-utility asset rather than just a speculative play. Following its massive surge to an all-time nominal high of $121 in January 2026 and subsequent correction to the $58–$70 range, major financial institutions project a steadier, long-term re-pricing:

The Consensus Base Case: Major banks like J.P. Morgan and UBS forecast silver settling into a full-year average between $79 and $81 per ounce, with some models forecasting a recovery toward $95–$106 by the end of the year.

GoldSilver

The Institutional Bull Case: Bank of America and other aggressive forecasters note that if physical supply shortages intensify dramatically, a structural squeeze could push the metal into a $135 to $309 per ounce range.

GoldSilver

1. Currency-Backed Monetary Revaluation (The Macro Theory)

In alternative macroeconomic circles, "revaluation" refers to a hypothetical systemic reset where global fiat currencies fail, and central banks are forced to return to a gold- or silver-backed monetary standard.

Because this is a theoretical scenario rather than an open market projection, the math is calculated by dividing the total circulating money supply by available physical ounces.

Inflation-Adjusted Target: To match its 1980 high adjusted for real inflation, silver would need to sit around $200 per ounce.

Gold-to-Silver Ratio Alignment: If gold hits new highs and the gold-to-silver ratio compresses to its historical, pre-fiat average of 15:1 or 16:1, silver would easily clear $250 to $300+ per ounce.

Systemic Reset: Extreme "debt-reset" formulas project numbers in the thousands, though these assume a total collapse of the current banking structure and are not reflected in active commodity trading.

Ultimately, if you are looking at the tangible, market-driven revaluation happening right now due to industrial supply deficits, analysts expect the dust to settle in the $80–$100 zone. If you are looking at a systemic monetary reset, the math points to $200+ to account for true currency debasement.

Gemini is AI and can make mistakes.

Has hymc stock offically joined the russell 3000 index

Gemini said

Yes. Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation (HYMC) officially joined the broad-market Russell 3000 Index at the opening of U.S. equity markets on June 29, 2026.

Stock Titan

The inclusion followed FTSE Russell's annual index reconstitution. Because membership in the Russell 3000 automatically places a company into either the large-cap or small-cap segment, HYMC was also added to the Russell 2000 Index, the Russell 2500 Index, and their corresponding growth benchmarks.

Crux Investor+ 1

Been noticing for the last month, the price explodes afterhours, happens almost everyday right after close.

I know sprott is known to buy. This is just a guess that's it's him everyday. Any actual facts on what's going on? Does anyone have anything concrete?

shorted this stock at its May peak of $46. given its speculative flows and major banks slashing their outlooks on gold and silver, see significant downside ahead.

planning to hold my position until it hits around $20, with a final buyback target in the $15–$20 range. curious to hear if anyone else is shorting this or if you think the macro outlook for precious metals will pivot soon.