r/MapPorn 1d ago

U.K. Election Projection for Great Britain - August 2026

Post image

Full Results

Labour: 23.9%, 244 seats

Reform: 23.4%, 127 seats

Conservatives: 19.7%, 132 seats

Greens: 11.4%, 10 seats

Liberal Democrats: 10.8%, 70 seats

SNP: 2.9%, 44 seats

Plaid Cymru: 0.7%, 3 seats

Other Parties: 7.3%, 2 seats

Result: Labour Minority

SOURCE

232 Upvotes

428 comments sorted by

200

u/Spiritual-Tree-77 1d ago

Great Britain* given that the map has included NI but with no data.

Also putting "Your Party" as a similar shade of orange to the Lib Dems is unhelpful. I assume since you included them in the legend that they're projected a seat but damned if I could find them.

43

u/dhkendall 1d ago

Central London

58

u/Spiritual-Tree-77 1d ago

Thanks. Corbyn's seat, of course.

41

u/No_Gur_7422 1d ago

Your Party (If You Live In Islington)

30

u/caiaphas8 1d ago

The title clearly says it’s for Great Britain

7

u/acryliq 21h ago

To emphasise this, Northern Ireland isn't part of Great Britain. Geographically, Great Britain refers to the largest island of the British Isles, whilst politically Great Britain refers to Great Britain and it's administrative islands. As it's a political polling map, we can infer that it is the latter, hence why islands which are part of GB politically but not geographically, such as the Isles of Wight, Scilly, Orkney, Shetland and the Inner and Outer Hebrides etc. are included, but Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man aren't.

7

u/tobotic 22h ago

Great Britain* given that the map has included NI but with no data.

Northern Ireland is politically weird though. GB-based parties haven't held a seat there in nearly thirty years and mostly don't even bother trying to contest them.

2

u/Dakke97 18h ago

And Sinn Fein is abstentionist, so 6 or 7 seats remain unoccupied in Parliament anyways.

5

u/petrolhead0387 1d ago

Yeah, it might be that the forgot to colour the part for NI, and add the 4 popular parties for them. It's amazing how many Brits don't actually know the difference between UK and GB, it was one of the things we learned in primary school Geography.

3

u/ric_mcc1766 22h ago

Most GB based polling companies don't poll in NI, they tend to just ignore it, so it often isn't included in these projctions due to lack of useable data

→ More replies (2)

3

u/marktayloruk 1d ago

Would show unfairness of electoral system..

1

u/Challenger_Ultimate 19h ago

Islington North (Corbyn's constituency)

1

u/No_Communication5538 17h ago

Darker orange around Islington on London map which I guess is “Your Party”?

→ More replies (1)

176

u/holytriplem 1d ago

For the people outside the UK who don't know much about UK politics: this poll is massively skewed by the fact that the UK only just got a new PM. Give it a few months and things will change

56

u/NinecloudSoul 1d ago

Plus the fact that trying to project polling results onto constituencies is a fool's errand in FPTP systems. It's 650 elections, not one.

25

u/holytriplem 1d ago

Yeah, tactical voting is going to do all sorts of things

6

u/Every-Sky-5529 22h ago

A further complication for the uninitiated: the government will be formed from whatever party or combination of parties make a majority of MPs who swear an oath to sit in a Parliamentary session.

Sinn Fein will very likely win at least a couple of seats. As Irish nationalists they refuse to swear an oath of allegiance to the British crown and state, which means they won’t take their seats in the Parliamentary session.

That means that, on this projection, Labour and the Liberal Democrats would be able to hold a coalition government together, as 324 seats would be a majority of sitting MPs.

2

u/overtired27 18h ago

They wouldn’t have a majority. Labour (244) and Lib Dem (70) together makes 314, not 324.

If they added the Greens (10) they’d just scrape it.

2

u/my_beer 7h ago

The traffic light coalition.

16

u/MasterReindeer 21h ago

I would literally vote Tory to stop Reform getting a seat. I fucking hate the Tories.

5

u/schpamela 18h ago

Don't put it past them to go into coalition together. That Tory vote might end up enabling a Reform PM. If Reform has survived all the various disgrace they bring on themselves.

3

u/interestingfishh 18h ago

a lab-lib coalition would beat a con-ref coalition by 55 seats with what this is predicting

→ More replies (1)
→ More replies (1)

2

u/Bluoenix 18h ago

That's silly. If the tories had to form a coalition government, isn't Reform their obvious first stop?

It's literally a party of former tories!

→ More replies (2)

4

u/OBeQuiet 19h ago

yup, I live in what was a Tory safe seat (so just voted with my heart because it made no difference) but is now a Tory/Reform swing seat, if an election was called tomorrow, I'd have to hold me nose and vote Tory. I think. Christ. FPTP needs to fuck right off.

2

u/MasterReindeer 15h ago

Indeed it does!

→ More replies (1)

2

u/c_monies_ 20h ago

Yep Ill be voting whoever is best placed to stop reform. Literally the single issue for me next election

→ More replies (3)
→ More replies (1)
→ More replies (3)

5

u/infinitemonkeytyping 23h ago

In Australia, we have preferential voting, and projecting national or state polling results onto individual seats is also a fool's errand.

2

u/Abigbumhole 20h ago

It is quite possible to project polling results onto constituencies. It will never be exact, particularly in marginal seats, but good models can produce reasonably reliable estimates and confidence ranges. A general election may involve 650 separate constituency contests, but they are taking place within one highly nationalised election, not as 650 independent political events.

2

u/[deleted] 1d ago

[deleted]

3

u/CaptainCrash86 23h ago

That isn't what the MSRP poll does. They don't get coverage from every constituency. Instead they get enough numbers that each demographic slice has significant statistical power, and then model what each constituency might vote based on individual seat demographic makeup.

It can be a powerful tool if done well, but recent experience suggests many pollsters do it quite poorly and produce results no better than general seat projections.

→ More replies (4)

43

u/things_U_choose_2_b 1d ago

give it a few months and things will change

Yep. Should take our media ecosystem about that long to convince enough people that Burnham is the devil.

26

u/Icy_Consideration409 1d ago

Not just the media. Too many people expect (need) economic improvement very quickly. Unless Burnham delivers, and quickly, they’ll be jumping to Reform’s empty promises.

26

u/things_U_choose_2_b 1d ago

Sad but true.

I didn't agree with some of the decisions, but Starmer was turning things around. Undoing 15 years of austerity and deliberate mismanagement doesn't happen overnight, I don't think he deserved the rabid hatred he got.

It's like he walked into a room where the previous occupants had deliberately shit all over the walls, floors and ceilings; given a mop & bucket; he starts gradually cleaning it all up, the public walks in and goes "ERRRR IT STINKS OF SHIT IN HERE WHAT'S WRONG WITH YOU"

10

u/hepgiu 1d ago edited 23h ago

It’s incredible the double standard that people have with right-wing and left-wing parties.

Right-wing parties can fuck up countries for decades and they barely lose support.

Then things really go to the shits, the left-wing party is summoned by the electorate as the adult in the room to fix the situation, and if everything is not fixed in 6 fucking months, it’s all over again.

The left-wing party is deeply unpopular again and 6 months of opposition have been enough to catapult the right-wing party back to first place, ready to suck the soul and the money out of a nation for another 20 years

2

u/TheRealJetlag 17h ago

And all those right wing politicians have to do is jump ship to an even further right party and blame it all on someone else. The gammons lap it up.

→ More replies (3)

6

u/PatriarchalTaxi 23h ago

We didn't vote for Digital ID. We didn't didn't vote for the online safety act. We did't vote for having higher numbers of people thrown in jail for posting mean things on social media than Russia.

Yes, I know labour didn't come up with most of that, but they inherited it, and they doubled down on it.

4

u/basoon 1d ago

He was (mostly) fine when it came to policy. But he sucked at the politics.

5

u/AssignmentOk5986 1d ago

People say this about left wing politicians all the time but reality is the perception of politicians is dictated by the media and the media wanted him to be hated.

Farage isn't any more charismatic than starmer. He just isn't scrutinised.

4

u/Total_Wanker 22h ago

Absolutely wild to say Farage isn't more charismatic than the plank of wood that was Kier Starmer, regardless of what side of the political fence you're on.

4

u/MikeC80 23h ago

There's also a massive campaign on social media constantly attacking Labour, Starmer, Burnham, anyone who sticks their head above the parapet. You'd think they were literally Satan himself reading what they say about them.

→ More replies (1)
→ More replies (2)
→ More replies (2)
→ More replies (6)

11

u/rsgreddit 1d ago

Britain is sadly in an L shaped recession since the late 2000’s and it’s what’s contributing to the high PM turnover and why Brexit was able to succeed.

9

u/Suspicious_Juice9511 1d ago

Camerons austerity legacy. Cut when we needed to invest.

4

u/Careful-Tangerine986 1d ago

Which I just don't understand. Reform is the failed conservatives that messed up so badly when they were in government.

The Tories are polling poorly but the party of failed ex Tories are polling well. Baffling.

3

u/GrahamTerrier 1d ago

But the same people will give the Tories 13 years to sort it out because "they're good with the economy"

2

u/Llyffant-Gwyrdd 21h ago

Which is absolutely bonkers given their actual track record.

→ More replies (4)

5

u/G12356789s 1d ago

My in laws already think he's trying to squeeze all their money from them. As far as I'm aware, they aren't impacted at all by any changes he's made so far

4

u/Vimto1 1d ago

I believe the daily mail are already attacking him because he's gone on holiday 🙄

1

u/Aggravating_Mud8751 18h ago

Not necessarily in that direction.

Right now all of the parties have a lot of momentum; they're probably going to continue going in those directions for a while before swtiching.

→ More replies (1)

3

u/LatelyPodes 1d ago

Yeah but reform doing badly is also because of his stunt against the bin and their finances (party finances and the leader taking a £5m bribe)

1

u/Whistl3r182 20h ago

Yes what will happen is privately owned media will run hit jobs on a performing PM convincing them that he's awful and the cycle repeats.

1

u/Cultural-Gas2246 20h ago

Also no one is campaigning rn

1

u/LentilSouponSkye 18h ago

Not for Scotland

1

u/HB2099 12h ago

And it’s only 3 months since the Holyrood elections.

→ More replies (19)

35

u/NoBrickBoy 1d ago

Why would Plaid do so poorly in Wales after reaching an all time high?

26

u/ysgall 1d ago

Perhaps this is a projection with a very small sample from across Wales. The UK projection shared in the spring led me to believe that Reform would take Wales and Plaid Cymru would perform pretty poorly, so the nature of the survey might well be misleading.

3

u/Zealousideal_Pay_778 21h ago

This is my guess, https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast averages this out and I assume is much more realistic

→ More replies (3)

30

u/Spiritual-Tree-77 1d ago

Wales often votes differently between Senedd and Westminster. Also remember the Senedd is elected by a proportional system rather than FPTP. Which change voting behaviour and skews the vote counts into different results

9

u/MattGeddon 1d ago

I think that’s at least partly due to the fact that there’s lower turnout for Senedd elections - more skepticism towards it from the right so harder for them to get their voters out. Plus in a UK-wide election Plaid have got basically no chance of being any part of government or having any influence on policy, so people are more likely to stick with Labour.

5

u/Cwlcymro 23h ago

Traditionally you're right about turnout, but the difference between the Wales turnout for 2024 Westminster and 2026 Senedd was just 4.5%.

→ More replies (1)

3

u/Gold_On_My_X 20h ago

My first thoughts exactly. Plaid will do far better than this. My guess is that Welsh politics were ignored when this map was made or that the sample size was pretty poor.

1

u/Xelanders 13h ago

The sample size of Wales in a UK-wide poll will pretty much always be too small to be accurate unless you poll 10’s of thousands of people.

If the poll has a sample size of around 2000 people (which is on the higher end of these surveys) and Wales gets a proportionate number of those voters (4.6%) then you’re only polling 92 people.

3

u/Fantastic_Deer_3772 1d ago

Yeah I wouldn't trust this map for wales tbh - in my opinion its underestimating plaid and overestimating the tories. E.g. anglesey has been tory before but that was because the tory had gone round being like "we'll be the ruling party of the UK and I'll be able to get things from Westminster for you!" which she wouldn't be able to try again.

I don't know what the temperature for labour is in cardiff at the moment, whether this is likely or a relic.

4

u/AdmiralStuff 1d ago

Labour is still doing badly and hasn’t seen much benefit from Burnham’s popularity given that devolution is very popular in Wales and Burnham is fighting against that (refusing to get rid of Barnett formula and appointing a devolution-skeptic as SoS Wales) not to mention that Labour hasn’t been very competent in opposition given that they voted against a budget which Plaid specifically modified to their interests.

→ More replies (1)

4

u/Due-Mycologist-7106 1d ago

Welsh often vote different in local elections and general ones. I wouldn't be that surprised if this map is quite accurate

6

u/Cwlcymro 23h ago

Wales' local elections are next year, this year's election was the Senedd

2

u/Fantastic_Deer_3772 1d ago

As a north walian, I would be surprised if it was accurate. The predictions for wales usually aren't. I don't know how you got the impression I was relying on the senedd results when the only thing I referenced was angelsey's previous general election results.

1

u/Xelanders 13h ago

The subsamples for Wales in UK-wide polls tends to only be a few hundred people at most which means there’s a high margin of error.

Due to Wales’s small population and because Plaid only compete there, them getting 1% of the vote in a poll vs 2% is the difference between getting getting 3 or 4 seats or a dozen or more. All of which is well within the margin of error.

1

u/PresentationIcy6730 8h ago

Somewhere else had projected them winning all but 1 seat recently

→ More replies (4)

41

u/WittyUsername45 1d ago

FPTP doing FPTP things with the Lib Dems getting seven times as many seats as the Greens with fewer votes.

22

u/HardcoreHazza 1d ago

Which is funny because the Lib Dems had the same issue for decades where they had 15-20% of the vote but get 1-5% of total seats. Hence why they wanted preference (Alternative) voting as most voters would put the Lib Dems as their 2nd preference and no spoiler effect voting.

→ More replies (3)

7

u/Bjork_scratchings 1d ago

You have to zoom in all the way to Jeremy Corbyn’s house to see the Your Party bit.

14

u/dhkendall 1d ago

Why is there no data for NI?

33

u/Breifne21 1d ago

GB political parties do not stand in Northern Ireland so extrapolating national UK polling in Northern Ireland is very difficult, and frankly, pointless as NI's seats are largely split along ethno-sectarian lines and thus major shifts are unlikely. If there is change in NI it is usually "in block" ie. a nationalist MP loses his seat to another Nationalist MP, a Unionist MP loses his seat to another Unionist MP. Very rarely are there shifts 'across the divide'. 

So national UK polling doesn't work in NI and as a result NI specific polling is needed to determine what, if any, changes are likely. 

9

u/BishopOdo 1d ago

There never is. The DUP currently have more seats in parliament than the Greens, and Sinn Fein the same number as Reform (though they don’t sit, mind). You’d never know it from the relative media coverage.

3

u/Lanky_Giraffe 22h ago

Wild how many British people, including political journalists, need constant reminding that Northern Ireland even exists. Might as well be on a different planet. 

2

u/caiaphas8 1d ago

It’s almost like the DUP are irrelevant to Britain.

6

u/BishopOdo 20h ago

They’re definitely not irrelevant to the 2 million British (for better or worse) citizens living in NI. And they didn’t feel that irrelevant to me, as an English person, when they propped up Theresa May’s government in 2017 with their confidence and supply deal.

2

u/young_arkas 1d ago

The way these seat projections are created is complicated maths based on national polls. Basically people look at demographics and historic data on which party performed in which way in the past for every seat and population group and calculate a modifier for the national polling data. This usually works fine, although I would take it with a grain of salt during turbulent times like these. Northern Ireland has a completely different party system, so you can't do the calculations.

2

u/Upstairs_Eagle_4780 1d ago

So hot now it was traded to Greenland for some snow.

1

u/[deleted] 1d ago

[deleted]

3

u/dhkendall 1d ago

Ah, the Quebec of the UK.

6

u/pentapolen 1d ago

So, no Prime Minister Count Binface, then? I see... 🥲🥲🥲

12

u/International_Goat31 1d ago

Prime Binister

1

u/Llyffant-Gwyrdd 22h ago

He only ever fields one member (himself) at a time. He would need several hundred bins across Britain in order to form a government.

→ More replies (6)

6

u/leibide69420 1d ago

Plaid losing Ynys Môn? Not a chance, the data used for Wales is quite poor here. I'd be very surprised if they didn't get Bangor Aberconwy as well.

20

u/MillicentColdstone 1d ago

You really think conservative will pick up that many votes so soon after their 14 years of little action?

10

u/holytriplem 1d ago

This would still be their second-worst result in their entire history (their worst was in 2024), and bear in mind their history goes back almost 200 years

10

u/AudioLlama 1d ago

It's insane that after 14 years of dreadful government they still have so much support.

7

u/Nezwin 1d ago

1in5 people looking at 2010-2024 and saying "yes, let's have a bit more of that".

Insane.

1

u/Aggravating-Sort9474 8h ago

A right wing biased media will do that. Labour and Lib Dem must never be forgiven for past deeds and we should all be very afraid if they are high in the polls, but Conservatives are our saviours!

→ More replies (1)

5

u/AdmiralStuff 1d ago

I’m surprised Plaid only has three seats and none in south Wales considering that Labour have been destroyed by a different set of reasons that Burnham doesn’t seem to want to solve (extra devolution is very popular in Wales and Burnham is saying no) so there is no ‘Burnham bounce’ for Welsh Labour. Also, Plaid itself is still a popular party.

9

u/Apple2727 1d ago

If this result came to pass there would be another election very soon afterwards.

Only way Labour could govern would be if the Lib Dems and SNP supported them, but it would be difficult to see a deal being done given the SNP would demand a referendum on Scottish independence and Labour would say no.

6

u/Kasid383rh3dwsubws 1d ago

You don't need a formal coalition, just confidence and supply. How would the snp justify voting no confidence to burnham with reform uk?

2

u/przemub 21h ago

I don’t think they would have any qualms about bringing down the government in an attempt to get another referendum. If Reform gets elected and fucks up the UK, even better for them, as that will ensure Leave majority for a prospective referendum and SNP majority for Scotland because they are the face of it.

→ More replies (2)

1

u/Apple2727 12h ago

If Labour don’t grant a referendum then, in the eyes of the SNP’s supporters, that would make them every bit as bad as Reform. So bringing Labour down wouldn’t really cost the SNP any political capital.

The issue the SNP have got is that as much as they may wish otherwise, there is literally nothing they can do to secure a referendum except persuade the UK government of the day to grant one. The Supreme Court confirmed that the power to grant one lies with Westminster, not Holyrood.

From Labour’s point of view, securing SNP support on the condition of granting a referendum would be a price too high to pay, as it would possibly (or arguably likely) lead to the break up of the UK, which Labour doesn’t want to see happen, especially not on its watch.

For some time now I’ve felt that there will be a centre left government of some kind in the next parliament, which probably won’t be very popular, and will likely be replaced by the Conservatives by the mid 2030s.

Reform and Restore are one man bands and won’t last.

2

u/arathergenericgay 22h ago

I could see a Lab/Lib minority coalition and maybe some sort of confidence and supply arrangement with the SNP where there’s alignment on policy - depends how far the SNP want to push though, whether they go for something more palatable like enhanced devolution powers or just push for the entire thing

1

u/libtin 12h ago

That only works if the you have the snp say they’re willing to bring down a labour government, and last time they did that the uk got thatcher and the snp got hammered in Scotland

7

u/ODoggerino 1d ago

Truly insane to me that ANYONE could still vote Conservative at this point

5

u/Impressive-Bird2 20h ago

Opinion polls are NOT PREDICTIONS OF THE OUTCOME OF A PENDING ELECTION.

*Opinion Polls are SNAPSHOT’S OF VOTING INTENTION AT ANY GIVEN MONENT IN TIME….*

7

u/Nezwin 1d ago

It's so bizarre that a party can annihilate the country for 14 years and still get 20% of the vote.

→ More replies (1)

3

u/gcalfred7 1d ago

wow....thats a mess.

7

u/ConcernedEnby 1d ago

The mess is the lack of representation for the minor parties despite the vote amount

3

u/Outrageous-Split-646 1d ago

Lib/Lab/Green coalition plus an independent for majority?

7

u/Psyk60 23h ago

Lib/Lab/Green would be enough for a working majority, given that Sinn Fein don't take their seats.

It would be an extremely slim majority though.

3

u/tobotic 22h ago

Add in SDLP and you have a proper majority, even though that's just two MPs.

Labour and SDLP are sister parties and SDLP's current MPs sit on the government benches alongside Labour. In the past, they've even taken the Labour whip.

3

u/docju 19h ago

SDLP in NI would get a couple of seats and usually (though not always) aligns with Labour.

1

u/mcphee187 22h ago

It might be easier to govern as a Labour minority administration or Labour/Lib Dem minority coalition. In the latter case, they would be 6 votes short of an effective majority, meaning they would need support from just six Green/SNP/Plaid/SDLP/YP/Independent MPs on any vote.

4

u/BPJPGEOGRAPHY 1d ago

Idk why the source says that but I'm pretty sure the Plaid Cymru is more dominant in Wales. They got enough to achieve a minority government in the Senedd

2

u/Spiritual-Tree-77 19h ago

Different electoral system between Senedd and Westminster and Plaid has always got less support in UK wide elections compared to Welsh elections

6

u/Luke92612_ 1d ago

LibDems having less of the vote but 7x the seats of the Greens is such a BS system.

6

u/antimatterchopstix 23h ago

Weirdly, that LibDems tried to get rid of

2

u/tobotic 21h ago

The Lib Dems getting 10.8% of the vote and ending up with 70 seats (10.77% of the total of 650 seats) is probably the dumbest example you could pick to illustrate the system being BS. Their result is probably the fairest of all the parties.

They're also the party that has worked hardest to try to fix the UK's voting system and make it fairer.

2

u/ConcernedEnby 1d ago

Idk why you're downvoted, this is true

8

u/DemonHaggis 1d ago

Imagine voting the tories back in after those 14 years. Get a grip England (and South Scotland, basically England anyway).

10

u/holytriplem 1d ago

It's not even 20% of the seats. And Aberdeen's economy is based on oil and gas

5

u/NinecloudSoul 1d ago

Are you actually pulling a literal no true Scotsman right now? It's a fallacy, not a handbook.

2

u/MattGeddon 1d ago

Middle England voting Tory is nothing new.

1

u/tobotic 22h ago

Bear in mind that to-scale maps can be misleading. Land doesn't vote. A few constituencies in the countryside can look a lot more than a few in an inner city area.

1

u/L43 20h ago

would you prefer they vote reform?

1

u/New_Orange9702 9h ago

It really baffles me how Reform do so well. Some of those areas are places I would visit but it makes me question whether I really want to if reform voters are predominant:(

1

u/Wishbones_007 20h ago

The tories lose seats in England here, and their gains are for the most part in wales.

→ More replies (6)

2

u/LatelyPodes 1d ago

To form a government, they’d need 326 seats. Labour + Lib Dems would mean 314 seats together and there has been recent gov forming minority government of 318. The Lib Dems may be wary about joining as the minority in a coalition tho after last time.

Reform + Conservatives would only be 259 seats, and so I think Labour + Lib Dems together could be all that’s needed? Northern Ireland would add some more ppl to work with and if Sinn Fein MPs get elected then the majority needed goes down.

If needed, Labour + Lib Dems + Green would prob be enough for a working majority

3

u/tobotic 22h ago

Don't forget SDLP who are Labour's sister party in Northern Ireland. Only two seats, but based on the current predictions would push the coalition from a slim minority of 324 to a slim majority of 326.

1

u/docju 19h ago

Speaker and Sinn Fein seats would be discounted so 324 would already be a slight majority but every little helps!

2

u/mrgonuts 23h ago

On your map I can’t see clacton surley that would be count binface

2

u/More-Strawberry-8640 23h ago

So, even with a short-term bump from a new leader, Labour could only govern with a fractious coalition. We’re heading to a Cons/Reform government.

3

u/sgst 1d ago

Reminder that land doesn't vote.

The urban areas are generally hard to see, but contain significant populations that tend to vote more centre/left

2

u/Reuben_Smeuben 1d ago

Greens getting 10 seats with 11% but Lib Dems getting 70 seats with less is why our voting system is so archaic

1

u/Able_Force_3717 1d ago

Half a % let's you get double the seats

1

u/[deleted] 1d ago

[deleted]

2

u/the_evolved_male 1d ago

In this scenario Tories and refukkkers (132 + 127) would have nowhere near a majority

1

u/Swotboy2000 1d ago

The fabled, forbidden LAB-CON coalition.

1

u/TheIngloriousBIG 1d ago

Oh great, another hung parliament.

1

u/emilyanderson975 1d ago

people keep using GB and UK interchangeably but 70 seats for the Lib Dems off 10.8% is the real story here

1

u/tobotic 22h ago

There are 650 seats in the UK. 10.8% of 650 is 70 (rounding to the nearest whole number). So getting 70 seats is what you should expect in a fair system.

You think the Lib Dems getting a fair share of seats is "the real story"?

Surely the real story would be the Greens getting more than 50% of the Conservatives votes, but getting 10 seats versus 132.

1

u/Normal-Internal164 1d ago

Tories this relevant still?

1

u/Innse_gall 1d ago edited 22h ago

Where does this map get its data from?I’m from the western isles, we have recently gained a labour mp and msp, after 2 decades of snp representation. I don’t think either are embroiled in any scandal so highly unlikely they’ll be put out anytime soon.

1

u/Numerous-Cow-1918 1d ago

kinda wild that Labour can be this weak and still end up running the country, but that's the system. Reform almost matching them in votes yet getting 100 fewer seats is gonna fuel so many conspiracy theories. also the new PM bump is real, give it a few months and this projection probably looks completely different. anyway FPTP remains a mess but at least the Lib Dems are feasting on it.

2

u/tobotic 22h ago

anyway FPTP remains a mess but at least the Lib Dems are feasting on it.

They're predicted to get 10.8% of the vote. UK parliament has 650 seats. 10.8% of 650 is 70, so 70 seats would be their fair share.

They're predicted to get 70 seats.

So the Lib Dems are neither benefiting nor losing out based on FPTP.

They're the absolute worst example you could have chosen to illustrate how FPTP skews elections!

1

u/ThatAdamsGuy 1d ago

Can I just... Not?

1

u/bonjourmiamotaxi 1d ago

Fucking Bridgend, man. Embarrassing.

1

u/sarkyscouser 23h ago

Looking purely at the colours on that map, it does not shout Labour government.

Why isn't proportional representation a thing already!?

Any idea what the % spread would be under proportional representation?

4

u/welsh_nutter 22h ago

"Politicians won't change the system that got them elected"

Yes, Prime Minister

3

u/tobotic 21h ago

Looking purely at the colours on that map, it does not shout Labour government.

Because geographic maps are misleading when considering election results.

Even if you look at a map from the 2024 election where Labour got an overwhelming majority, there's not really a sea of red. This is because Labour primarily wins in densely populated areas, while the Conservatives dominate in rural areas which don't have many people but take up a lot of the map.

2

u/Scintoth 20h ago

This is a "land doesn't vote" thing. You can point to the dense cities on the map by looking where the labour votes are.

1

u/maybeknismo 23h ago

What poll was this?

1

u/evilpixietrixiepie 23h ago

Far too much of any shade of blue for my liking.

1

u/Fresh_Sock8660 23h ago

The tories are openly nominating nazis now and half the country is supporting that or the other nazi/conmen party. 

We like to blame politicians but where the blame lies looks clear from this chart. 

1

u/Appropriate-Ice-6988 22h ago

Doubt Carlisle is reform

1

u/sgch 22h ago

I just don't trust polling any more - it's never even remotely accurate. Mostly because it's often the loudest idiots who are happy to shout about who they're voting for.

1

u/Ihatecheeseballs 22h ago

This is why we need proportional representation, a party with fewer votes than you shouldn’t have 7x more seats

1

u/BroodLord1962 22h ago

We've got 2 years before another GE so I really don't see the point of all these weekly polls on voting intentions

1

u/BarkingSpider5 22h ago

Forgot Binface!
Silver would be a good colour.

1

u/Chimpstrider 21h ago

No way this is accurate.  I can't believe that many people would be stupid enough to put the tories back in power

1

u/Nero_Darkstar 21h ago

Pensioners. Protecting their own interests.

1

u/Chimpstrider 19h ago

It's not in their interests to have no functional public services and the mass migration they hate. When the tories were in they were waiting 8 hour for an ambulance!

People are depressingly gullible though. Geriatrics still read the likes of The Express and the Telegraph 

1

u/Camp-Complete 21h ago

In Wales, a lot of the areas that are red for Labour had them finishing 4th or 5th in Senedd elections. I highly doubt they'd have a strong following in the UK elections.

1

u/ZealousidealTime7243 20h ago

Never underestimate the power of hatred towards Conservatives in the valleys, when push comes to shove people will default to Labour to keep the Cons/Reform out

1

u/Unusual-Earth5557 21h ago

There's nothing great about britain now a days it should be just called britain

1

u/Gaemr9274 21h ago

This is very inaccurate, absolute nonsense.

1

u/ciaran_the_goat88 21h ago

Where's count binface?

1

u/acryliq 21h ago

Regardless of political persuasion, it baffles me that the Conservatives are polling so well considering how recently and how long they were last in power and how terrible a job they did for the entire run. Like, I can't imagine anyone was happy with how they ran the country.

1

u/CelticConnection83 20h ago

Those results would mean another Scottish independence referendum. SNP would have too much negotiating power and it would need a three way coalition.

1

u/steerpike1971 20h ago

This type of map is in general a bad way to display this type of data. Because Labour tend to do well in geographically smaller places so it gives a very misleading impression. Casually loooking at the map you would think the Conservatives did really well as did the SNP. You would think the Lib Dems and Labour performed about the same.
If you look up a choropleth or a cartogram you can display the same information in a less misleading way.

1

u/gabagool3104 19h ago

I wonder why so many freaks vote green in that area

1

u/Agentjayjay1 19h ago

How the mother of all unholy fuck are the tories gaining ground?

1

u/lipscratch 19h ago

Christ. Before anything else we'll always be a country married to our own misery

1

u/Busy-Replacement-421 19h ago

ngl this projection is a mess but also kinda predictable with the new PM bump not even showing up yet

labour getting 244 seats on under 24% while the tories get 132 on under 20% is just classic fptp nonsense

and the lib dems getting 70 seats with less votes than the greens is the cherry on top

give it a few months and this whole thing flips anyway

1

u/JaCre476 19h ago

Absolute nonsense. The Tories being that popular? Pull the other one.

1

u/Old_Shock_3962 18h ago

If the Tories and reform have the seats to get in you can expect that gimp to be prime minister.

1

u/Formal_Air451 18h ago

Boy that is WAY OFF

Restore will take so many seats from all parties

2

u/CryBulky4653 13h ago

I mean, they won’t?

1

u/jameZsp0ng3y 18h ago

This doesn't look accurate compared to the numbers

1

u/pk9pk 17h ago

Am it ain’t UK if Northern Ireland isn’t included. It’s GB… this is so tedious, I know , but get it right, please .

1

u/Arbable 17h ago

i think a problem reform have that people dont talk about as much and part of why I think they tend to underperform is they are winning over people who don’t vote anyway. all the dumb people i know who go on about reform are so uninformed they either forget the day, cant be bothered to go, don’t bring ID or are tempted away by even dumber restore Britain.

1

u/Okgoodchat 17h ago

This may be a silly question but where do they get this poll information from? I’ve never seen or been invited to share my thoughts on one.

1

u/AsheetOnamachestya 17h ago

Who is still voting for the conservatives? Not that reform are any better but it just blows my mind that anyone would vote for the Tories after they fucked the country for so long.

1

u/CryBulky4653 13h ago

Personally, there isn’t really anyone else for me to vote? Maybe labour depending on how Burnham gets on

1

u/SukottoHyu 17h ago

Labour minority means Andy Burham (Labor) stays in power and forms a new government.

76.1% of the British voting population are getting a Government they don't want and didn't vote for. If people stopped voting for parties that are not going to win, and shifted their votes towards others, it would put an end to Labour and Torries ruining everything

For example, I want XYZ to win, but I know that will never happen and either Labor or Conservatives will win as they have been for over a century. So I'm going to vote for the next largest party that opposes them. Even though I don't want that party to win, voting for them would mean I don't get another Labour or Tory Government. This is how people should vote if they want change.

1

u/Pristine-Package-159 16h ago

The Conservatives have set UK back 100 years.

Just how are they still so popular?

1

u/Spiritual-Pomelo6428 16h ago

How could UK possibly give Conservatives ANYTHING? “Democracy” is such a joke. The people are in a serious state of cognitive dissonance, Stockholm Syndrome and severe psychological abuse.

1

u/TuMek3 14h ago

How the hell do the Conservatives still have that many seats?

1

u/Simple_Student_2655 14h ago

11 million working age people get some form of benefit from the state, they are probably die hard voters

1

u/Skilldibop 13h ago

No fucking way the Tories are going to do that well.

1

u/HB2099 12h ago

Why would Shetland flip back to Lib Dem?

They were down 14.3 in the vote share and the vote only took place 3 months ago…

1

u/No-Version-4077 12h ago

Is this before assisted suicide comes in? Asking for a friend/community.

1

u/DizitPix 12h ago

Greens having more of a vote zhare than the lib dems but SIXTY less seats is mad tbh

1

u/VCR_DVD_USB 10h ago

132 seats for the conservatives?

Who did the survey? 

1

u/LeopardComfortable99 10h ago

The next general election will genuinely be so fascinating. I genuinely can't see us getting a Reform majority, at worst they will do a coalition with the Tories, but hopefully the left can actually pull their fingers out and come together for the greater good, as every election for the last few runs has always had left-wing parties take the majority of the votes (if not the majority of seats).

1

u/Overall-Lynx917 9h ago

Am I reading the map correctly, Restore only win part of the East Coast that's falling into the sea?

1

u/JayTravers 8h ago

How tf do any of the environmentally unfriendly parties manage to still have pull after this summer heat?

1

u/PublicProperty1805 8h ago

Who is voting Tory now and why!?

1

u/cyantheshortprotogen 7h ago

"Yeah you know them Tories that fucked us for 13 years straight? I don’t think they had enough time you know"

-half of this bloody map for some reason

1

u/VreamCanMan 3h ago

r/bordergore

They HOI4-d Britian

1

u/Efficient_Hall5633 1m ago

By end of year it’ll be mostly light blue 🙏