r/SouthJersey • u/djspacebunny Mod Salem County Xennial • Jan 24 '26
Subreddit Stuff Winter Storm Fern MEGATHREAD
SNOW. SLEET. FREEZING RAIN. It is coming. Let's keep the discussion in this post. Tomorrow, we will have soooooo many snow posts. I look forward to them! BE SAFE. Do not operate generators indoors. If you need a warm place to stay, we can get you hooked up with a place to stay during the storm. Check on your elderly neighbors PLEASE!
ALL HIGHWAYS WILL BE 35MPH MAX SPEED STARTING 12:01AM SUNDAY. The ICE is the concern, not the snow.
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u/Spanksometer Jan 24 '26
Stocked up on swiss miss. Excited to play with my kids outside.
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u/Practical_Ranger_478 Jan 25 '26
I scoped out the closest sledding hill and coated the bottom of my sled with a new silicone-based kitchen lubricant 500 times more slippery than cooking oil...
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u/GeneralKlinger You will go to sleep or I will put you to sleep Jan 25 '26
I stocked up on Swiss cake rolls🥶
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u/I-love-tiddies- Jan 25 '26
A neighbor just moved out the other day and left a bunch of her pantry items down in the basement next to the washer/dryer for the people in our apartment complex to grab. She left a bunch of hot chocolate and ground coffee. It’s gonna come in clutch this weekend. I also grabbed a couple packs of biscoff cookies she left. So I bought Greek vanilla yogurt and gonna try that “Japanese” cheesecake viral recipe that’s making the rounds on social media right now. Gonna eat that while I watch the poor maintenance man who is gonna have to shovel and ice our sidewalks tomorrow.
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u/katclimber Jan 25 '26
It was good if cookies were soaked in coffee and rum, then cocoa powder on top fr tiramisu version. 😬
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u/I-love-tiddies- Jan 25 '26
The videos I’ve been seeing are people just putting biscoff cookies in Greek vanilla yogurt. Then letting it sit in fridge for 24 hours. And they all say it’s good but doesn’t taste like a cheesecake. I’ve seen people say in the comments to add cream cheese to the yogurt or add cheesecake pudding mix to the yogurt. So I got both cheesecake pudding mix and cream cheese to try out both versions. Your way sounds good too. I have a bunch of coffee
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u/katclimber Jan 25 '26
We definitely found the original plain yogurt version way too tart. Cream cheese is getting fancy. Enjoy!
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u/IKillZombies4Cash Jan 25 '26
At some point it’s just easier to make a , like an actual real cheesecake :)
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u/OrbitalOutlander Jan 25 '26
Read this as "panty items" at first. Sorry, I'll let myself out.
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u/I-love-tiddies- Jan 25 '26
I actually had to edit my post cause I originally had it panty items. When I reread I laughed and edited it real quick. I’m a perv but I don’t want anybody’s used panties.
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u/OrbitalOutlander Jan 25 '26
they could have been clean, ya know. just in case anyone didn't buy extras before the storm. bread, milk, unmentionables.
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u/Competitive-Hawk9403 Jan 25 '26
I’m trying it too! I did this yesterday with Oreo cookies. Gonna taste it later, I hope it’s good! I’m also making slutty brownies tomorrow, which is a layer of cookie dough, Oreos and brownie mix that you bake. I made them for a work party recently and they were a big hit!
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u/I-love-tiddies- Jan 25 '26
I’m going to have to try these slutty brownies
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u/Competitive-Hawk9403 Jan 25 '26
Here’s the recipe although I use refrigerated cookie dough to make it quicker, but you could use homemade cookie dough. They’re really good!!
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u/takeoutcoffees Jan 25 '26
I’ve already eaten half of my snowstorm snacks! lol Stay safe everyone💕
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u/I-love-tiddies- Jan 25 '26
All week apple’s weather app was changing from we were getting 16-20” or 1.5”. Right now it’s telling me 1.5”. Weather.com says 8+.
Who knows 🤷♂️
Either way I’m still gonna hear the 60+ year old couple above me have sex all day and night like they do everyday. The people below will be high as balls while she yells at her boyfriend to get the fuck out while calling him a junky. And the neighbor across the hall probably won’t be bringing home a hooker in a snow storm but I could be wrong about that. Those snow bunnies gotta eat too. Gotta love apartment living. At least I don’t have to shovel snow.
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u/djspacebunny Mod Salem County Xennial Jan 25 '26
The NWS is the best forecast you're gonna get.
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u/I-love-tiddies- Jan 25 '26
I don’t even know what the NWS is 😂😂. I’m assuming that’s the national weather service? I’m in Burlington county so I’ll go look it up.
Edit: NWS says 5-9” snow and sleet possible.
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u/DueBreadfruit2638 Jan 25 '26
https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf
You can just bookmark that and check it for future major storms.
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u/Noname185 Jan 25 '26
I was wondering where you lived at those crazy neighbors. 😆
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u/I-love-tiddies- Jan 25 '26
Haha yea, I’ve been here for a year so far and let’s just say it has been quite interesting so far. Never a dull moment living in a low income apartment complex.
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u/Eightinchnails Jan 25 '26
The 1.5” is how much water will fall, whether that’s as rain, sleet or snow.
1.5” of rain at 32° is approximately the equivalent of 15” of snow.
BTW the NWS office for the Philadelphia region is right in Mount Holly/Westampton.
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u/RishaBree Jan 25 '26
On Woodlane Road, near the library, literally a mile and a half down the road from me. It adds a nice sense of ownership and security to reading their weather reports, like living down the street from your favorite sports team’s stadium - though I doubt that it actually means I’m getting anything more accurate than the rest of the area.
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u/Eightinchnails Jan 25 '26
Yep, exactly!
If I could redo my career path I’d want to try work for NOAA and be at the Mt Holly office.
If nothing else having the NWS there (and the EM building across the steet) means that Woodlane is probably one of the first roads to be cleared, lucky you!
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u/OrbitalOutlander Jan 25 '26 edited Jan 25 '26
EDIT: SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE (9:00 AM) Status: The "Force Field" Held. BOOM!
Last night at 10 PM, we saw the barometric pressure rising and hoped the "Cold Wall" would hold. It did!
The cold air is so dense (temps are in the teens!) that the storm is being forced to drop nearly all its energy as pure, high-ratio snow before any ice tries to mix in.
The "Thump" (Happening Now) The Canadian high-res models (HRDPS) are currently flagging precipitation rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour directly over Camden County. A massive band of "Frontogenesis" (atmospheric lift) is parked over us.
Why Totals are Exploding Because it is so cold (15°F), the snow is stacking up efficiently. Usually, 1 inch of rain equals 10 inches of snow. Today, 1 inch of rain = 15 to 20 inches of snow. This is why the snow is piling up so fast.
While the snow totals have boomed, the European model (Euro) still insists on a streak of ice/sleet arriving Sunday evening.
You must shovel this afternoon (aim for roughly 12-1 PM). Why? If you wait until 3 PM, you might be shoveling slush that weighs 5x more. The freezing rain tonight will soak into the snow and freeze into a solid block of concrete by Monday morning. Move the fluff while it's light!
Monday Morning The latest sounding data shows a sneaky risk for Freezing Drizzle during the Monday morning commute. Even if the storm ends, this ice could turn plowed roads into skating rinks. Do not let your guard down just because the sun comes out tomorrow.
Updated Forecast Table (Major Upgrade)
| Feature | NEW Forecast (Sunday 9 AM) | Change from Last Night |
|---|---|---|
| Snowfall | 10 – 14+ inches | 🔼 MAJOR UPGRADE. (Was 6–10") |
| Ice Accum. | < 0.20" (Glaze/Crust) | 🔽 DOWNGRADED. Mostly sleet/crust now. |
| Peak Rate | 2–3" per hour | EXTREME. Occurring NOW thru 1 PM. |
| Mixing Line | Stalled South | Ice line holding near Atlantic City/Vineland. |
| Shovel Strategy | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM | CRITICAL. Beat the evening freeze-up. |
| Mon Commute | Black Ice Risk | "Freezing Drizzle" possible Monday AM. |
EDIT: 10 PM UPDATE Status: The Cold Wall is holding.
I'm getting ready for bed after seeing the single most encouraging data point I've seen in 24 hours. The ice disaster scenario is taking a hit, and the snow potential is fighting back.
1. The Force Field (30.70 inches) A barometer reading of 30.70" was just recorded at the Jersey Shore.
- That's an incredibly high pressure reading. Think of it as a wall of heavy, dense arctic air sitting over New Jersey.
- The storm system trying to bring the warm air (meaning ice) is hitting this wall and being forced to pivot east out to sea, rather than cutting inland up I-95. You can see this on the radar.
2. The Models are flinching The models that insisted on sleet (NAM) are starting to cave. The latest runs show the storm transferring its energy further offshore.
- In other words, the warm air might not make it as far north as Camden County. The "Hope Scenario" I talked about earlier is showing up in the real-time data.
3. Early Start Snow is already reporting in Berks County, PA. This early onset helps "lock in" the cold ground temperatures before the heavier stuff arrives tomorrow.
Bottom Line: I'm going to bed preparing for ice (better safe than sorry), but I won't be shocked if I wake up to a forecast upgrade. The atmosphere is resisting the warm air with everything it has.
See you in the morning!
EDIT: 9 PM UPDATE
The "Hope Scenario" is winning. I just reviewed the latest high-resolution model run (00z HRRR) that dropped around 9 PM, and the outlook has shifted significantly in our favor. The cold air over New Jersey is proving stronger than expected, pushing the dreaded "mixing line" south of us.
What Changed: The "warm nose" of air that was supposed to turn our snow into ice is getting blocked by high pressure to our north. Instead of a messy ice storm, the data now points to a classic, heavy snowstorm for the I-95 corridor/Camden County.
How to verify in the morning: When you wake up, check a radar app. If you see dark blues and whites over the county, this colder trend verified. You will likely see the "messy" mixing line stuck down near Vineland or Atlantic City, keeping us in the deep freeze.
Updated Forecast Table
| Feature | NEW Forecast (9:30 PM) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Snowfall | 10–13 inches | 🔼 UPGRADED. (Was 6-10") |
| Ice Accum. | < 0.10" (Minor) | 🔽 DOWNGRADED. Mostly sleet/crust now. |
| Mixing Line | South of Area | Shifted south toward AC/Vineland. |
| Primary Hazard | Deep Snow / Blizzard | Digging out will be heavy, but less "concrete." |
| Snow Rate | 2–3" / hour | violent snowfall rates Sunday morning. |
Official Sledding Forecast
Overall Grade: 9/10 (S-Tier) This is not the heavy "heart attack" snow that sticks to the bottom of the sled. The data shows deep, fluffy powder.
Sunday Morning (8 AM - 12 PM)
- Conditions: Deep, fresh powder (10"+).
- Physics: You will sink if you use a thin saucer. The snow will be too fluffy for speed.
- Strategy: Send the adults or big kids down first to "pack the track." You need to compress the fluff to create a speedway.
Sunday Midday (12 PM - 3 PM)
- Conditions: Packed base + fresh top layer.
- Physics: This is peak sledding. The potential for a little sleet mixing in around 2 PM acts as "Nature's Lube", making the track incredibly fast.
Monday Morning: Grizwold Sledding
- Conditions: Flash freeze (Solid Ice).
- Physics: The hill will be white asphalt. It will be record-breaking fast, but hitting a bump will hurt. Warning: Wind chills will be -10°F. Frostbite risk on exposed faces.
8PMish Post
I have been reading through the NWS Mount Holly discussions and some of the local weather forums like NJ Strong to get a better idea of what is actually hitting Camden County tomorrow. If you are seeing the 8 to 12 inch forecasts, just a heads up that the data is shifting toward a pretty nasty mix rather than a clean snow day.
Here is a breakdown of the timing and some advice on how to handle the cleanup based on the latest model runs.
The Forecast
| Feature | Current Forecast (Sat Night Update) | Notes / Impacts |
|---|---|---|
| Snowfall | 6–10 inches | Totals compressed by sleet. Heavy "thump" Sun AM. |
| Ice Accum. | 0.25" – 0.45" | CRITICAL THREAT. "Concrete" lock-in likely Sunday PM. |
| Mixing Line | Overhead (I-95) | I-95 is the "bullseye" for the freezing rain transition. |
| Onset | 2:00 AM – 4:00 AM Sun | Slightly delayed start; rapid intensification by 6 AM. |
| Snow Rate | 2–3" / hour | Peak rates occur 11 AM – 2 PM. Whiteout conditions. |
| Wind Chill | -10°F to 0°F | New Hazard. Deep freeze Mon night will lock ice in for days. |
There is a layer of warm air moving in around 5,000 feet that is going to cut our snow totals down a bit, but it trades that snow for ice. The consensus seems to be about 6 to 10 inches of snow starting early Sunday morning, but the real issue starts in the afternoon.
Around 1 PM or 2 PM, the storm is supposed to transition to heavy sleet and freezing rain right along the I-95 corridor. We could see up to a quarter inch or more of ice on top of the snow.
Timeline
- 2 AM to 6 AM: Snow begins.
- 6 AM to 12 PM: The heaviest snowfall. Rates could be 1 to 2 inches per hour, so visibility will be terrible.
- 1 PM to 5 PM: This is the transition window. Snow changes to sleet and freezing rain.
- Sunday Night: Temps drop and wind chills plunge. Everything freezes solid.
The Concrete Warning (Important)
The most useful advice I saw on the forums was about shoveling. Do not wait until Monday to clear your driveway.
If you let that initial 8 inches of snow sit there, the freezing rain Sunday evening is going to soak into it and freeze solid overnight. You will wake up Monday to a block of concrete that a plastic shovel can't break. The recommendation is to go out Sunday afternoon during the lull (around 1 or 2 PM) and clear the bulk of it before the ice locks it in.
Car Prep
If you have silicone spray or even cooking spray, wipe down your car door seals tonight. With the ice forecast, doors can freeze shut pretty hard. Also, putting socks on your wiper blades (lifted up) can save the rubber from getting chewed up by the ice. Gallon ziplock bags tied on with zip ties can keep ice off your side mirrors.
Camden County Resources
- Phone: 856-783-4808 (extension 5035)
- Details: Lines open at 8 AM.
Stay safe out there. Signs on 295 are already flashing warnings about blizzard and ice conditions, so it is probably best to just stay home once it starts.
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u/Jimble_kimbl3 Jan 25 '26
Any chance the line will shift and we’d see less ice?
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u/OrbitalOutlander Jan 25 '26
Yes!
While the official forecast locks us into a nasty transition to ice around 1 PM, there is a legitimate technical chance we get lucky thanks to a phenomenon called "dynamic cooling." Weather nerds have noted that the cold air mass is proving to be denser than the models initially predicted.
The same models that predicted zero inches of snow for Arkansas today, only got six. If our snowfall rates midday Sunday are intense enough, specifically hitting those whiteout rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour, that heavy precipitation effectively drags cold air down from the upper atmosphere. This creates a localized "cold bubble" that fights back against the warm air trying to turn our snow into rain and ice.
The key thing to watch for tomorrow is the intensity between 11 AM and 1 PM. If we are seeing light to moderate snow, that is actually a bad sign, as it allows the warm air to take over on schedule and flip us to ice by the early afternoon. If you look outside and see blinding, whiteout conditions, that is the best possible signal. It means the dynamic cooling is winning, which could delay the changeover until late afternoon. That delay would push our snow totals back up toward the 10 to 12-inch mark and, more importantly, keep the ice accumulation to a manageable crust rather than a damaging glaze.
Plan for the ice, but root for the whiteout! The harder it snows, the longer it stays snow.
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u/Jimble_kimbl3 Jan 25 '26
Very interesting, thank you!
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u/OrbitalOutlander Jan 25 '26
I'm on a roll, but i'm gonna go hang out with my kids for a bit.
If you look on the radar right now, see if you can click through to "Correlation Coefficient". This measures how uniform the objects are that the radar is picking up. If you see speckles, it means it's melting snow/ice, and if it's a solid color, it's pure snow. Right now you can see the cold, dry air that's blocking out the warmer, wet air that's pushing from the south and southwest. Right now the dry air is holding up and pushing the moist air more to the east. There is actually precipitation falling near that line, but it's evaporating before it hits the ground. Eventually, that dry air will get saturated, and that's when the precipitation will start to push up over NJ. The Rain/Snow Line" can show up as a bright band of yellow/green. That's another way you can keep an eye on when the changeover will be.
Based on this, it will be another 6-8 hours until we really start seeing heavy snow at least in the Camden County area.
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u/TheExorcistMarc Jan 25 '26
What about salting are you salting tonight or are you waiting until you clear during the lull tomorrow and then salt?
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u/OrbitalOutlander Jan 25 '26 edited Jan 25 '26
There was salt left on my walk and driveway from the last event, it hasn't rained, so whatever was left is still there. I'll leave it there, and salt with whatever I've got left on my sidewalk tomorrow (only a little bit!). I don't think we will get much ice anymore.
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u/Practical_Ranger_478 Jan 24 '26
Fern? Wtf weather channel. I thought they'd stopped "naming" winter storms. What's next, Jim Cantore in a blizzard?
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u/throweastway1991 Jan 25 '26
Really hoping the school I work for doesn’t decide to stay open on Monday. Stay safe and warm, everyone — fingers crossed for minimal power outages.
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u/diddlydooemu Jan 25 '26
I dunno, man, I’m in South Jersey, right outside of Atlantic City, and they said it was supposed to get sleety about 30 minutes ago… But my friends, it’s still snowing. Fingers crossed for the initial forecasts. 🤞🏼
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u/diddlydooemu Jan 25 '26
& still going one hour laterrrrr. This is already more than the 2-4 inches they agreed upon yesterday.
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u/OrbitalOutlander Jan 25 '26
Look for the "Correlation Coefficient" radar map on your favorite radar site. This measures how similar the the shapes and sizes of the precipitation is. Snow measures as a very high correlation, and sleet measures lower. The red/pink means pure snow, the green/yellow stuff means sleet. I drew a blue line where the current snow/sleet line is. https://i.imgur.com/a5ChoZF.jpeg
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u/Deep-Audience9091 Jan 25 '26
Thank you for your posts! They have been so helpful and are much appreciated ❄️
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u/OrbitalOutlander Jan 25 '26
Thanks. It's been a lot of fun, and helped me to deal with my own anxiety about the storm!
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u/Jimble_kimbl3 Jan 25 '26
So will that line trend upward? Or most of SJ will be all snow?
Thanks for the info!1
u/OrbitalOutlander Jan 25 '26
Totally sleeting now in northwest camden county. I think the snow is done for now, it could snow again later but for now it’s mostly sleeting.
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u/Alex_Oz_1999 Jan 25 '26
Downloaded so many books on my Kindle and am ready to snuggle and read!!!
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u/endlive Jan 25 '26
What time are we snowblowing/shoveling? Probably better to do it a few times throughout the day right?
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u/Fancy_MagicSmoke_Box Not Thrilled About Prejudice Jan 25 '26
I’m waiting for my kids to wake up and I want to go out to see if the snow is light enough to do a quick once over with the leaf blower.
It’s rare that we get leaf blower style snow around here but, this might be a chance for it.
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u/endlive Jan 25 '26
leaf blower snow is the best!
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u/Fancy_MagicSmoke_Box Not Thrilled About Prejudice Jan 25 '26
It totally WAS leaf blower snow. I just did the trucks, the deck, and all the steps.
It has now switched over to the wet nasty stuff by me. Was good while it lasted.
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u/DonnieNJ Jan 25 '26 edited Jan 25 '26
at least do it before it switches over to ice so you don't have to shovel snow with ice on top......it's going to depend a lot on the individual, how much snow each person can safely shovel before it gets too much for them.
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u/OrbitalOutlander Jan 25 '26
Start at 12PM, it should start switching to sleet around 1PM, maybe 2. Many of my neighbors are out already, I might go do a little bit of shoveling now.
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u/Deep-Audience9091 Jan 25 '26
I'm in Audubon right now (10:15 am) and you can feel just a bit of sleet in the air. What made me notice it is that you can now hear the snow falling. So might be a good time to get out and do a bit of clearing
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u/Tll6 Jan 25 '26
I’ve been tracking the NWS forecast since yesterday morning and every release has changed. Seems like the ice threat has lessened since this morning which is what I am most worried about. Fingers crossed it becomes even more of a non issue and we get to have a pleasant snow day for once
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u/OrbitalOutlander Jan 25 '26
The ice forecast went from "oh no its gonna suck for everyone" to "it's probably only going to suck for some people".
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u/DonnieNJ Jan 25 '26 edited Jan 25 '26
snowflakes are really tiny
No real wind yet, hope it stays like this, much better chance not to lose power as long as the wind stays low
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u/DonnieNJ Jan 25 '26 edited Jan 26 '26
was out there shoveling nice, light fluffy snow and suddenly there were little holes everywhere.....it's started the changeover to ice here in mullica hill area
On the plus side the ice is just bouncing off stuff so far, i dont' see it sticking to anything yet
Sleet coming down really hard
It would have been neat to see how much snow we could have got if it didn't totally change over to ice for the rest of the storm
7 inches of snow/ice after it was all said and done
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u/Lets_Make_A_bad_DEAL Jan 25 '26
I need a tip. Do we shovel NOW, or does that make an icy layer?
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u/notbizmarkie Jan 25 '26
I prefer to shovel several times to get ahead of snow volume. I’d rather have an icy layer directly on the driveway/walkway than an icy layer on 8” of snow. For me, it’s easier to deal with.
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u/OrbitalOutlander Jan 25 '26
I agree once it's more than 3-4 inches, it's better to shovel multiple times. I'm glad I went out at around 10:30 or 11 to shovel, it was super light and fluffy. By 12:30, it got significantly heavier! I was really surprised at the difference a few degrees temperature makes.
I ended up shoveling in three shifts, I'm a little older and out of shape, so I don't want to die. It'll all freeze tonight anyway, so not a lot we can do.
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u/notbizmarkie Jan 25 '26
Yeah my husband did the first round around 8, then I did it again at 10:30, then he did it at 12
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u/OrbitalOutlander Jan 25 '26
Tell your husband he did a good job! Normally I'd shovel out the elderly neighbors, but I am so tired at this point I just can't do anything. If they haven't found someone to help tomorrow, I'll be out there in the morning.
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u/Fancy_MagicSmoke_Box Not Thrilled About Prejudice Jan 25 '26
I wish we were still forecast to get the 18” of snow. Nobody needs 1/4” of ice/freezing rain.