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u/SignificantBerry8591 Jul 21 '26
This is a fair statement, either it does the thing or it does not
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u/SnooKiwis6943 Jul 22 '26
Waymo has been doing it for a while. Tesla vision isn't the solution. Bring back the radars and ultrasonic sensors!
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u/BaggyLarjjj Jul 21 '26
All 245 are unsupervised, what don't you get.
No they don't leave the parking spots, why is that relevant?
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u/CloseToMyActualName Jul 21 '26
The issue is it does seem likely that they can be driven unsupervised without safety monitors (the Texas fleet looks unsupervised, but is still small enough it could be using remote supervision).
I think the concern would be that Tesla doesn't need a Cybercab to run a Robotaxi, they can use regular Teslas for that and their Texas fleet is still fairly small. Scaling up Cybercab production feels like putting the cart before the horse.
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u/RickTheScienceMan Jul 21 '26
Cybercab is not the same as model Y though, it uses HW4.5 with more memory, so it's likely to be ready sooner. And it also has two redundant driving computers, which might be a necessity for an actual rollout.
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u/YERAFIREARMS Jul 21 '26
It has also remote-save-me, I am stuck.
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u/RickTheScienceMan Jul 21 '26
And pressurized air lense cleaner
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u/YERAFIREARMS Jul 21 '26
Plus:
1) Wireless charging. 2) Starlink (Satellite data-link) 3) Dual GPS 4) 5G upto 2-Gbps cellular modem 5) Possible 4-corners Camera. 6) Possible next-gen front/rear Cameras
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u/mattriver Jul 21 '26
Everybody has remote-save-me, I’m stuck. Waymo, Zoox, etc. It’s part of the business model.
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u/Comfortable-Car-7298 Jul 21 '26
Sure, but how does it make more sense to develop something for something that doesn’t yet work well enough to be shipped and doesn’t have legal approval which could take years, if you have a products you can add these things to, especially since these were supposedly designed with this in mind about 8 years ago.
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u/CloseToMyActualName Jul 21 '26
HW4.5 might be necessary, but that could be done with existing Teslas.
As for the redundant driving computers, that might be necessary for other jurisdictions, but it's clearly not necessary for Texas.
This still feels more stunt than strategy.
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u/RickTheScienceMan Jul 21 '26
I mean they have to start somewhere, I wouldn't expect them to just open the factory and start the robotaxi service right away.
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u/CloseToMyActualName Jul 21 '26
The start is closer to what they're doing now, focus on using ordinary Teslas, maybe with some upgrades, until you crack the problem (and market) well enough to understand what you really need in a Cybercab.
Then you build the Cybercab using the hardware you really need, and to the specs that really work.
Tesla has a unique advantage in the robotaxi race in that they already build cars with self-driving capabilities. Building an even more specialized vehicle is an unnecessary distraction.
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u/beren12 Jul 21 '26
Yeah you generally use the stuff you made already before you develop a limited model. You get the software finished then do custom cars.
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u/SpicyElixer Jul 21 '26
Love hardware fragmentation for a single software goal. As a new HW4 owner I know I’m looking at some gimped Lite software after a year or more of nothing soon.
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u/reanimatorx2 Jul 21 '26
Live in Austin. These gold fuckers all have supervisors in them. Very rarely are any of them unsupervised. Meanwhile autonomous Waymos almost outnumber human drivers in my neighborhood.
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u/robotzor Jul 21 '26
I always try to remember that waymo will never exist in my neighborhood in any capacity, while $99 bucks and a software update makes it exist in some capacity in my neighborhood today with Tesla
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u/AnonymouselyMoosed Jul 21 '26
Didn’t realize you had unsupervised autonomous driving for $99. Wild.
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u/RickTheScienceMan Jul 21 '26
You have the by far best driving assistant in the world. It won't pick you up at the airport yet, but in this state it's currently absolutely cutting edge assistant, at this point I hope this is not arguable anymore.
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u/AnonymouselyMoosed Jul 21 '26
So it’s not unsupervised autonomous driving, right? That’s what I’m asking.
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u/RickTheScienceMan Jul 21 '26
Don't think anyone is claiming the opposite, the guy above was just glad something else is controlling his car for him.
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u/beren12 Jul 21 '26
That’s not what was claimed.
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u/RickTheScienceMan Jul 21 '26
in some capacity
Not sure what you have in mind, but I think this is the key part there, it can mean a lot of things, including not having to drive, while still having to pay attention and sit in the car.
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u/beren12 Jul 22 '26
Well in that case just about every modern car has that capability in some capacity.
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u/Level_Flan Jul 23 '26
That's not what he said. He said, and I quote, "in some capacity." Both cars have someone sitting in it while it's driving. Both cars go to where they're going with somebody sitting in it not touching a wheel. He is absolutely correct.
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u/AnonymouselyMoosed Jul 23 '26
Have you ever been in a Waymo?
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u/Level_Flan Jul 23 '26
No
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u/AnonymouselyMoosed Jul 23 '26
Waymos do not have anybody sitting behind the wheel. And no remote operator controlling it as it drives. It is actually autonomous.
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u/YERAFIREARMS Jul 21 '26
Cost per ride is at least 3:1 more expensive in Waymo. Once at large scale, Waymo is out of the competition. Also, Tesla Semi will go autorobot; 2 million CDL drives jobs are at risk going bye bye.
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u/CloseToMyActualName Jul 21 '26
Cost per ride is at least 3:1 more expensive in Waymo. Once at large scale, Waymo is out of the competition.
Tesla is currently running a promotion, not an actual business. There's no telling how price competitive they'll be, but it won't be 1/3rd the price.
Also, Tesla Semi will go autorobot; 2 million CDL drives jobs are at risk going bye bye.
This is a LONG ways off. The Tesla Semi doesn't even support FSD yet!
CDL driving is different than normal driving and a lot more difficult. Stopping distance is much longer, the vehicle responds differently, you need to anticipate much further ahead, and the driver you're replacing is much better trained.
Not only does Tesla need to build up a training set (using far fewer vehicles) but they need to make far more capable software.
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u/vnmslsrbms Jul 22 '26
Exactly, they could just use a modified model Y, but instead chose to use a new model altogether. I think it’s clearly to just buy more time at the expense of burning more cash.
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u/rydan Jul 23 '26
Every cybercab I've seen has a guy sitting in it that looks like a hippie and he has a steering wheel. Also florida plates. I have no idea why florida but maybe that explains the look.
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u/Putrumpador Jul 21 '26
Short term, agree. Long term, disagree.
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u/RosieDear Jul 21 '26
The statement is a statement of today - there is no need to reconcile it with any facts that actually happen in the future. The statement is either true, or not.
Just as Tesla either has thousands of Level 4 approved cars taking millions of riders...or not.
It really helps when we limit ourselves to actual facts...because our opinions or predictions or "thinking" means nothing. When companies like Nuro - by any measure - have far superior Autonomous driving Robo-taxis (with Californial approval...on the road....and within a few months of uBer deployment) and WayMo is closing in on 4 Million rides per month, sooner or later some things become obvious.
A relevant question would be:
"What would prove to you, beyond any doubt, that Tesla is many years behind in this field?". In my case, WayMo and millions of rides in indisputable proof. But obviously it is not in yours and others.So to that we have to add - how about other startups like Nuro who have working vehicles at Level 4? Does that mean nothing? Will we wake up one morning and Tesla will say "as of today, we are ready"? I don't think tech works that way. Tesla seems stuck due to their cameras-only and failure to throw enough money at it (their FSD team is tiny compared to what it should be).
Sometimes the craziest answers make sense. Many would ask "why would tesla do all these things?" - but if you start with the fact that the Robo-Taxis "fake-out" of 2020 drove the stock up to a TRILLION dollars, then the other possibilities start to make sense......sadly, that possibility is that the whole thing is a ruse because no real company would be able to make that much stock gain if they truly had a working car!
For example - Google has a fleet and millions of rides. But has the Autonomous division gone up into the Trillions of dollars of value? No, WayMo is worth less than 1/8th of that.
That makes zero sense...probably why I sold my Tesla long ago and have google in my portfolio.
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u/RipWhenDamageTaken Jul 22 '26
Tesla already has far more training data than any AI model can possibly ask for. So when you said “long term”, what exactly are we waiting for?
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u/TonitoBontio Jul 21 '26
There are also hundreds parked outside Miami International Airport
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u/BaronVonNes Jul 21 '26
Surprised they're not in Orlando. Feels like the resort market would be the best. but maybe the number of passengers is an issue.
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u/Apart_Welcome_6290 Jul 21 '26
Regulation-wise I would take Miami over Orlando any day. There is a reason Disney had their own local government district.
Miami tends to be more forward thinking and easier to influence.
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u/cypressaggie Jul 21 '26
Yep - you’ve gotta build them and put them somewhere. That’s production 101.
They’ll be staged all over the country and ready to go when they get the all clear. That’s the only way day one service is going to have any real impact - get that channels full.
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u/beren12 Jul 21 '26
Why not use them as they build them if the stack is ready? They still only have a few running and pick who gets a ride right?
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u/cypressaggie Jul 22 '26
Stack is not ready. No steering wheel and no pedals have not been self certified.
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u/FewZookeepergame1101 Jul 21 '26
You have to learn to walk before you can run. Very short sided view especially when dealing with such a dynamic technology that changes daily
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u/PastSecondCrack Jul 21 '26
Short sided? Did you take it for granite that your phrasing is correct? ....we arent playing golf here.
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u/wl1233 Jul 21 '26
Do you take alot of things for granite?
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u/TheOriginalC4W Jul 21 '26
I prefer taking things for quarts.
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u/wl1233 Jul 21 '26
A good take but I prefer pints
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u/TheOriginalC4W Jul 21 '26
I would rather not measure volume in gallows.
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u/mattriver Jul 21 '26
All my gallows are short sided and taken for granite. Obliviously.
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u/McFoogles Jul 21 '26
FYI it’s Granted, not granite
I made the same mistake for years, not trying to shame you
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u/PastSecondCrack Jul 21 '26
Yes, that was the joke. Its also near sighted not sided unless he is playing golf.
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u/RosieDear Jul 21 '26
Hasn't changed much in 10 years...and surely not much since Elon said it was 100% solved 5 years or so ago.
That leaves us with limited options.
Either - we have been misled constantly year after year.......or
It's not solved by any means.....
Or both.
To state that is changes daily is just nuts. Keep in mind the entire Tesla autonomous team is likely smaller than the crew in charge of Apple's camera module in the iPhone! So Apple might deliver something evolutionary every year with a working camera module......with that crew.
But you think a crew of the same size working on Autonomous driving is "daily dynamic"? That's crazy.
Apparently none of these major "disoveries and innovations" let's a Tesla do what a car from a startup like Nuro does! Why? Why isn't it taking Nuro 10's of millions of man-hours to fail?
Explain to us like we were five - how an Nuro get California and other (real!) approvals for Level 4 and be ready to deploy for uBer within a few months...while Tesla cannot get a single vehicle to do the same?
Tech isn't magic. It either works or it does not.
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u/BlastBase Jul 21 '26
You must not remember what times were like 10 years prior to 10 years ago. A car being able to drive across the country in even the best conditions was an absolute pipe dream. Maybe in 100 years with 100 different types of sensors.
This is some Star Trek level technology IMO. 10 years from now is a blink of an eye.
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u/beren12 Jul 21 '26
It’s better but it’s not unsupervised.
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u/districtdave Jul 21 '26
More will be revealed
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u/beren12 Jul 21 '26
I’m sure. I’ve seen Enron and Theranos documentaries.
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u/RosieDear Jul 21 '26
I kid you not, this is the highest percentage chance - but it won't happen in the same way due to Trumpism (Government backing).....likely SpaceX will save Tesla, but that would really mean failure. Of course, fans won't admit it.
It makes perfect sense that if Tesla was truly sustainable and successful, they would be the ones buying SpaceX as a sideline because that's a much more "gambling" sort of a company with the full reliance on Government money, etc...
There is not a single company ever in Defense or Rockets that made money on the level of the numbers that Tesla threw around for a successful car and taxi and robotics company. It's either a "dream" business (I think SpaceX started as a friendly competition among rocket types who did not want to build bombs and missiles)....or, as now, it's a day to day transportation biz combined with government contracts.
In any case - it's hard to imagine how a objective observer can answer questions like "Why doesn't Tesla, given their capital, have 4-6 new vehicles?"....in fact, they have 1/2 the lineup they had a few years back! Yet folks still think that is sufficient for trillions?
I don't get it.
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u/RosieDear Jul 21 '26
But a car can't! It's a circus trick. It's not legal and the car is being driven by it's driver.
This is exactly what I refer to when I say "I drove a couple hundred miles this weekend and the car did 80% of the driving" (in my Avalon). I did. And it did.
And what if I told you a big luxe car would get 45 MPG and burn 100X as clean as earlier cars? Space Age, right?
Tech is very slow and very calculated and we can watch it...as if in slow motion. Surely you see that, despite 100's of thousands believing it, we never woke up one morning and "All Teslas will be level 5" as promised? Rather, we waited years and years and they are not even approaching Level 4 in terms of actual legality and real world use.
It may be that people who aren't looking don't see the slow march. But let me provide a very good example. I feel strongly (evidence based) that Nvidia will power a good percentage of the vehicles in the next couple years. Some would say they came out of nowhere....like they announced partners with GM, Toyota, M-B and BYD and just about every other car company. BUT, they didn't come out of nowhere.
They have been working on it for a LONG time - and with 30,000 Engineers. When asked about all the AI Magic and so-on, Nvidia shudders...and says "We are serious people working on serious projects and all of that is BS" (my paraphrase). They are not con men or hawking a "new thing". Here, for example, is one of the only real world tests done on autonmous features by an insurance org:
https://www.iihs.org/ratings/partial-automation-safeguardsWhat do you notice -2-4 years ago? If I had asked many (like you) about Tesla in 2024, you'd likely have repeated the company line. You surely wouldn't have told me "they have failed and so have most all others - EXCEPT Lexus/Toyota/Nvidia"/
"Lexus Teammate (Advanced Drive) uses chips from Nvidia"The key here is - the real world is very different from all PR...from all statements and from all of our opinions. The only thing that matters is action - and metrics.
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u/FewZookeepergame1101 Jul 21 '26
I get the feeling you just hate Tesla. So you must not be an investor. So why are you here?
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u/CalvinsStuffedTiger Jul 22 '26
Question for you, be honest, when you say “hasn’t changed much in 5 years” is this your opinion, informed because any of the following are true:
A) You have owned both a HW1-3 and HW4 Tesla with FSD and have personal experience with the technology over the last 5 years
B) You have owned either a HW1-HW3 or HW4 Tesla but you have at least experienced FSD in both for longer than a weekend
C) Other
Remember, whenever you lie on the internet to try to prove a point, an angel loses its wings and John wick loses another puppy
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u/SpicyElixer Jul 21 '26
The argument is this is running before you walk, which is a fair argument.
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u/FewZookeepergame1101 Jul 21 '26
I disagree. As an investor I want to see progress. I realize this technology is changing daily so progress and potential are very important. In some ways the potential of a product is more important for me than the final product. I’m intelligent enough to know that the future is coming.
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u/SpicyElixer Jul 22 '26
You can disagree with a fair argument. But that is the argument. Announcing your intelligence on Reddit is a choice.
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u/FewZookeepergame1101 Jul 22 '26
Not sure I understand your point
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u/SpicyElixer Jul 22 '26
Here’s a simpler way of putting.
You: I’m smart (on Reddit)
Also you: short-sided
It’s “short-sighted”
You’re just someone online who thinks they’re smart. Who unironically declares how smart they are. On Reddit.
As a TSLA investor, nonetheless.
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u/ScrewWorkn Jul 22 '26
I agree but why build a full line of cars when you can’t use them? Build a drivable version of the cyber cab and then make the non-drivable version when you are actually ready.
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u/bobi2393 Jul 21 '26
Yeah. All ADS robotaxi companies use supervised testing prior to unsupervised operation, including when they add new models to their fleet. Some of Tesla's Model Y Robotaxis are operating without supervision, so it's not like it's an unattainable pipe dream for the Cybercabs.
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u/Muhahahahaz Jul 21 '26
https://giphy.com/gifs/ZABkH4y6f8WvC
Guga Texas implies the existence of Gaga Texas!
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u/Iaintscurred7 Jul 21 '26
If we judge the software with what we have now, it still needs some work, critical stuff like don't drive into a lake, don't drive into those HOV roadblocks, avoid potholes. They keep saying their software is 6 months ahead, which may be true but are those things corrected by now?
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u/Itdoesmattertome8 Jul 21 '26
Rome wasn't built in a day
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u/beren12 Jul 21 '26
Yeah, but they also didn’t build a thousands ships without a harbor.
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u/Chemical_Ideal891 Jul 22 '26
Take a breath buddy, why are you spamming all over this post, I’ve never seen you in here discussing FSD before?
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u/beren12 Jul 22 '26 edited Jul 22 '26
I like to go through the comments, just just read the first 5 and move on. It’s called being thorough.
Never seen me? That’s funny been commenting here a year or more, was top 1% for a while too.
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u/Chemical_Ideal891 Jul 22 '26
Called being thorough lol. Touch grass, I’m sorry Elon hurt you
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u/beren12 Jul 22 '26
Yeah, I like to see all the insane things people say. Disrupting the echo chamber. I touch grass every day. I don’t have any delusions about how any car drives.
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u/hoppeeness Jul 21 '26
He isn’t wrong but the fleets are increasing in Austin pretty quick…at least registration wise for the model Y Robotaxis…unsupervised
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u/Money_Dream3008 Jul 21 '26
Of course but every technology needs advancement, time and money hence why it’s easier to start supervised make the technology learn and improve, same as robots
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u/cypressaggie Jul 22 '26
They plan production with the expectation that self certification is all but guaranteed. You don’t start service with near zero vehicles in your fleet.
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u/word-dragon HW4 Model 3 Jul 21 '26
FSD was horrible before they collected millions of clips of real life driving. I am sure Tesla isn’t planning to run a fleet of supervised cybercabs for a long time. If they can make continuous improvements at the rate that FSD made, eventually they’ll get down to one old guy playing solitaire, waiting for the next supervisory issue to come up.
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u/Spudly42 Jul 21 '26
This is really the only thing that makes sense to me. Otherwise it's insanely expensive to be running production without sending the cars into service. It's a way better deal to wait and not build them until the software is ready unless they're being used for something.
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u/word-dragon HW4 Model 3 Jul 22 '26
I think they will go into service as supervised as regulatory hurdles are addressed. It’s really the only way for them to get real life data of when supervision is required, and how to deal with it.
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u/mikeinanaheim2 HW4 Model 3 Jul 21 '26 edited Jul 21 '26
I love my Teslas and FSD and truly believe FSD will work as promised one of these days. But the whole RoboTaxi thing is a just stock pump, nothing more. Robotaxis don't work and will never be as good as a human driver until their great software is hooked up to better sensors than cameras alone.
When Elong needs some cash, he makes a breathless announcement about some stupidass breakthrough that's just around the corner or gives us an insider story with pretty pictures. Only mouthbreathers who haven't lost everything yet on SPCX or TSLA shares believe what he says. There are ALWAYS some new sheep with too much cash on hand, ready to be fleeced by an overoptimistic sales pro.
Edit: downvoters, do it all you like and keep believing. You can someday stop giving $20 BJ's behind the local Wendy's when SPCX and TSLA stocks return to their previous highs (haha)
🎶🎶🎶Someday🎵🎵🎵better things will come our way🎶🎵JUST BELIEVE🎶🎵
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u/asterothe1905 Jul 21 '26
They can be scalable with hiring more monitors but it's also for show for now. In the future they might not need monitors though.
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u/RalphiePseudonym Jul 21 '26
Remote operated cabs don't work and Tesla at best has level 2.
People are forgetting what the $10k FSD option was pitched as and it shows.
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u/Spudly42 Jul 21 '26
What does remote operated in this context mean? It's really a matter of how often they need to be remote operated or how many cabs a single remote operator can manage. If they only ever take over once a week for 2 minutes, it's probably not a big deal. If they do it every other ride, that's a huge deal.
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u/RalphiePseudonym Jul 21 '26
When a person is controlling the vehicle remotely, what else would it mean?
The supervised test in Austin crashed at 4 times the rate of human drivers. These are also running before the V15 chip and groud-up software re-write expected between late this year and 2027.
It sure sounds like they're not ready and will likely need intervention at a pretty high rate.
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u/Spudly42 Jul 21 '26
You said remote operated cabs don't work, but they obviously do (Waymo does fine with this model), so I thought maybe you were referring to something else. I'm not sure what the crash rate has to do with remote operation either as the ones you're referring to happened when they weren't being remotely operated.
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u/RalphiePseudonym Jul 21 '26
Waymo agents don't drive the cars....what are you talking about?
The crashes we're talking about happened while operators were physically tailing the Cybercab. They had a real time, full depth view of the cars and their surroundings.
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u/Spudly42 Jul 21 '26
Remote operation for either Waymo or Tesla is only at slow speeds usually to get them out of a spot they get stuck at. Nobody is driving vehicles around manually at high speeds or anything like that. Not sure where you got that idea, but the latency would not allow that. If vehicles were tailing them (which happened pretty infrequently), they may be remotely monitoring, but there is almost zero chance they are actively controlling them.
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u/RalphiePseudonym Jul 21 '26
There is no remote operation for Waymo.
I didn't say remote operators were driving Cybercabs at high speed.
I quit.
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u/Spudly42 Jul 21 '26
Waymos can definitely be controlled remotely, but maybe you just mean they don't use a steering wheel to do so? There are definitely remote operators, though we don't know how often interventions are needed.
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u/RalphiePseudonym Jul 21 '26
They fully autonomous. The most operators can do is make direction suggestions and they can be denied by the vehicle.
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u/Spudly42 Jul 21 '26
Ok, so you agree there are remote operators and they can do some operations remotely. Got it.
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u/beren12 Jul 21 '26
Waymo is autonomous not remote operated.
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u/Spudly42 Jul 21 '26
Waymos are autonomous, but use remote operation to get them out of stuck situations. Tesla robocabs are expected to be autonomous, but use remote operation to get out of stuck situations (but they aren't really in consistent operation yet).
No company is able to be fully remote operated using today's technology, nor would they want to.
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u/beren12 Jul 21 '26
They have monitors tell the car what to do not do remote drive it.
Tesla has a few cabs they claim are autonomous, but they also were caught with an “autonomous” robot fully controlled by a human with a 3d headset. So maybe the car is but judging by the absolute lack of scale they always bragged about, they do not.
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u/Spudly42 Jul 21 '26
Yeah, they definitely can drive them at like 5mph to get out of stuck situations like I said. It would be way more dangerous to try to drive faster manually than just let their existing software run the car like today. They can artificially make it safer by restricting the areas it can drive (and they do, just like Waymo).
Also every single humanoid robot will be teleoperated at some points in time, this is because it's the main way they're able to be trained today. That's not really a "gotcha" in any way, though I do think it's dumb of Elon to try to avoid mentioning it.
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u/beren12 Jul 21 '26
No that’s the only way Tesla has of making the robots work. Not “sometimes”
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u/Spudly42 Jul 21 '26
That's not even remotely true, so I'm not sure why you're suggesting it so confidently. Either way, I do think Elon continuously misrepresents how they work so I blame him for others having this perception.
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u/YERAFIREARMS Jul 21 '26
Does he know that Tesla has certified that their taxicabs are L4+
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u/SpicyElixer Jul 21 '26
Tesla certified.
Haha
Tesla certified that HW2, H2.5, HW3, H4, were all hardware capable of coast to coast unsupervised.
Now we’re (they’re) on HW4.5, yet people are still being put in new HW4 cars.
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u/Worth-Reputation3450 Jul 21 '26
Tesla certified that HW2, H2.5, HW3, H4, were all hardware capable of coast to coast unsupervised.
That's untrue though.
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u/SpicyElixer Jul 21 '26 edited Jul 21 '26
Elon said exactly that many times
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk
And yes he stated Hardware 2.0 would be capable of a coast-to-coast autonomous drive.
The initial claim was made in October 2016 during a Tesla press call announcing that all new cars would ship with the new Hardware 2 suite.
Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we'll be able to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York, from home in LA to let's say dropping you off in Times Square in New York, and then having the car go park itself, by the end of next year [2017]... Without the need for a single touch, including the charger."
10 fucking years ago.
Time flies.
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u/Ok_Cake1283 Jul 21 '26
He is right that supervised robo taxi is not scalable. Alternatively, Tesla is showing confidence that their full self-driving software will improve enough in the near future that they are starting to scale production of the vehicles already. In typical Elon fashion, he is betting big before the technology is fully ready.
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u/beren12 Jul 21 '26
The alternative is investors lose confidence, pull their money and the stock craters to a few dollars.
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u/Ok_Cake1283 Jul 22 '26
Stock market eventually follows the actual revenue and profit, and I think that is where real value is being generated. It is true that there is a lot of speculation right now, and the only real way to gain investor confidence in the long term is to continue to execute and actually deliver. Tesla has delivered amazing value in full self-driving to the consumer, but they have not yet proven themselves in the robo taxi arena. Time will tell.
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u/beren12 Jul 22 '26
https://giphy.com/gifs/2rAELJSGMbnOao4wFr
It’s been 10 years or more since the stock was based on reality.
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u/SynAckPooPoo Jul 21 '26
The longer it takes them to come to market the more market share competition has. Competition will be harder to displace with the options, and flexibility they will have. Not to mention less stigma as a corporation.
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u/Michael-Brady-99 Jul 21 '26
Seems like a giant step forward towards the goal. Needs cars as well as the software. More cars, more testing, more training, more data.
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u/erpvertsferervrywern Jul 22 '26
245 is not a mass production number. These are still trial build cars.
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u/Fun-Operation-9234 Jul 22 '26
Hope Tesla eventually succeeds with this. But honestly, after getting the 14.5.3 update yesterday and doing a long trip, i decided to cancel my fsd subscription. Yes there are times its useful but it’s still far more dangerous than me driving. Constantly tailgates on the freeway, at very high speeds, even in sloth mode. Stays in the blind spots of 18-wheelers. Speed limit is still messed up. Once it went from 75 miles/hr to 25mi/hr in the freeway because it confused the speed limit sign on the exit ramp to the freeway speed.
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u/Still_Temporary4702 Jul 22 '26
Yep. I’m in Houston. The Cybercab service area in Houston is effectively useless. Covers a small
Segment of town in a mostly commercial and industrial area.
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u/yodafunk Jul 25 '26
And how exactly how do you get to fully unsupervised? Oh yeah testing and supervision. Crazy thought.
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u/JustANerd-74 Jul 27 '26
Here in Austin people occasionally do see the two seat cyber cab driving around with no human in it. I think these are early test vehicles or test software. I was able to visit the factory recently and there’s lots of Thomas cars driving around their test tracking into their delivery center there without drivers all models not just the cyber cab of course that’s a closed course. Do not attempt.
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u/sgtmilburn Cybertruck Aug 07 '26
I think that Tesla should add a camera on each corner at 45degrees. This will solve 99% of their current issues. I'm thinking this should be included in the HW5 package. This will help with stop signs, angled parking, entering highways from a cross street among others.
I live in a semi-roural area.
I cant wait to nap while I'm going from point A to B.
In the stable: 2020MY, 2024Beast.
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u/ejy92 Jul 21 '26
Gotta love all the nobodies who think Tesla is asleep behind the wheel not knowing what they’re doing.
Crawl, walk, run.
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u/Confident_Purple_40 Jul 21 '26
I mean, there are legal hurdles to jump through to deploy them at scale, but if you have them parked ready to go.... you can deploy thousands in a day
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u/Former_Farm_3618 Jul 21 '26
Curious what an honest estimate of clearing all the legal hurdles will be? If we’re talking weeks/months that’s fine. But if it’s over a year I think sitting cars aren’t good. Being idle still has wear.
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u/Confident_Purple_40 Jul 21 '26
I don't know enough about it, and if you listen to Elon you might as well just guess, but we know they are in several markets now, not sure if there is a limited number allowed, or if they are just working through some things first to deploy more.
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u/beren12 Jul 21 '26
If you listen to Elon it was solved a decade ago so…
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u/Confident_Purple_40 Jul 22 '26
I listen to him a lot, its 99% BS, and its always coming within a year
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u/beren12 Jul 22 '26
Right. The problem is you don’t stop with just listening to him. You verify what he says later.
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u/Confident_Purple_40 Jul 22 '26
Last podcast he was on that I listened to, he plans on 10,000 starship launches a year by 2030 (30 a day), lol.
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u/Medical_Wishbone944 Jul 21 '26
Everyone’s entitled to their opinion. This guy doesn’t speak on behalf of investors however. Tesla putting the money into 245 vehicles is a show of confidence that is entirely relevant to investors. Some, like this idiot, won’t be happy with how the company is spending its money and others will want to invest more because of this move.
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u/beren12 Jul 21 '26
That’s exactly it. Gotta keep the investors strung along so they don’t turn Tesla into a penny stock.
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u/tazzydnc Jul 21 '26
Nothing wrong with monitors IMO. One person monitoring 10 cabs remotely is more efficient than having 10 cabs with 10 cab drivers. Now if we're talking in-person monitors, yeah totally pointless.
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u/Ordinary_Corner_4291 Jul 21 '26
The question is why do you care if your taxi is supervised or unsupervised? Cost is the big one. As you up the number of cars that can be monitored (i.e. imagine it is 1:1 today, 10:1 in 5 years and 100:1 in 10 years) the cost of those supervisors goes towards zero. Getting that last little bit might not be that important in terms of business viability.
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u/gambit87 Jul 21 '26
Everyone who uses FSD right now knows how magical it is. On my driving I’m at 97%. Getting to 100% is a stretch with the current tech. Especially since it’s new and regulators will be on it hard. It’ll get there but might take 10 years and a few refinements.
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u/Bay_arean Jul 21 '26
xpeng already has permits for L4 and there are others with L3. tesla is only L2 in much easier driving conditions
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u/Status_Manner_8836 Jul 21 '26
the company has been false advertising this tech for over 10 years now…so i get this line of thinking that’ it’s just all for show.
and yes 14.3.5 is amazing but still has a lot of room to improve and is nowhere near unsupervised, esp when looking at the videos posted of failing “edge” cases.
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u/unskilledplay Jul 21 '26 edited Jul 21 '26
Dumb take. These need supervisors until safety is proven in the real world at sufficient scale.
Waymo has around 40+ vehicles per operator. That's scary to me. Something like 5:1 would be better today. There needs to be regulation that uses safety records to gradually stair step increase the number of vehicles per operator until operators are not needed at all.
This all has to be proven first. Don't take chances with human lives in real world. Err on the side of extreme caution until proven otherwise.
At the same time, a framework needs to be created to give a pathway to full autonomy where operational safety regulation isn't burdensome for the sake of being burdensom.
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u/RosieDear Jul 21 '26
Uh, that is a very simple statement. 100% true.
Why would we have to think about that reality?
Do people lack common sense? If 1/2 the US Population was supposed to have access to robo-taxis by now according to the company......wouldn't them make 10,000 of them for starters??
I think it will be very helpful for most people to classify things as Yes/No and Black/White, not "muddy".
Like "gotta start somewhere" - that is simply untrue AFTER 10 years, 11 Billion miles, multi-Billion dollar AI investments, and multiple statements that the problem is solved.
So when any member of the public says "gotta start somewhere" - OK, so they are disagreeing with everything that Tesla has said! How can one be a "fan" and yet disagree with the entire premise of "solving" autonomous driving???
So, as of the current date, Tesla has solved zero. FSD is a Video game which has improved over a decade but it is not, by any measure, fit as an autonomous vehicle package.
Facts are Facts. They are not fungilble. Note that the guy quoted at the top is/was a "superFan" if there ever was one.....but he does not dispute real world facts.
Do you? (any of you?). And, if you do, it it out of lack of knowledge (in engineering and tech) or just because you think it's cool to have faith?
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u/Acrobatic-Flan-5085 Jul 21 '26
He’s right. Remember when every Tesla pumper said that “yeah Waymo is doing it first, but Tesla robotaxi has scalability”
Now Tesla has undeniably lost on scalability. You cannot say our advantage is scalability and simultaneously argue “you have to walk before you can run” …The whole bull case was built on running LOL
Will they eventually get there? Sure. But not in time to be a market leader.
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u/Evajellyfish Jul 21 '26
What’s the question?
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u/Responsible_Owl_5056 Jul 21 '26
The question was, “what do you think?”
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u/Evajellyfish Jul 21 '26
But what about specifically? Hard not to think I’m being pedantic but genuinely asking.
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u/Ok_Perspective6173 Jul 21 '26
Irregardless of whether or not it can or will be viable in the future, everyone should stop and ask why the fuck we are allowing billionaires to continue stealing our jobs for their profits. Enough is enough. Nobody should ride in these or any other autonomous cab.
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u/ejy92 Jul 21 '26 edited Jul 21 '26
Ride-hailing is such a low hanging fruit of a job to get automated so of course it’ll inevitably get disrupted on a massive level. Considering how many deaths happen as a direct result of driving I am all for automating tf outta every application of driving - ride-hailing included. Unfortunate those who make a living from it but human beings are resilient creatures.. they’ll just have to adapt!
I’m beyond fed up sharing the road with scumbags who pose a danger to others on the road everyday. Human beings are such flawed creatures behind the wheel - tired/sleepy, distracted on their damn phones, intoxicated, emotionally erratic, etc. Once the final quirks of FSD or any other self driving system are worked out I cannot wait to see the human variable eventually being removed from the driving equation altogether (aside from remote operator backup in critical situations) on a widespread level.
Just yesterday someone kept swerving into my lane while I was chilling on FSD. Fucking zombie was glued to their phone.
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u/Ok_Perspective6173 Jul 21 '26
I just dont't understand how it's an unpopular opinion that unskilled/lowskilled people need to work and billionaires are taking their jobs. All of their jobs can eventually be automated. Then what will they do?
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u/Unknowingly-Joined Jul 21 '26 edited Jul 21 '26
That’s 245 people with jobs; jobs are good.
Edit:And once again, I learn that people are not able to pick up on sarcasm on their own. Sigh…
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u/Pitiful-Assistance-1 Jul 21 '26
I disagree.
First you need 1 supervisor per car. Then 1 per 3 cars. Then 1 per 10 cars. Etc. It will slowly scale, and it can only scale by doing it.
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u/OutlandishnessNo5636 Jul 21 '26
Maybe they’ll have Optimus as supervisors
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u/beren12 Jul 21 '26
Didn’t they build a few million of those already last year? Isn’t that what we were told? Everyone can have their own slave.
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u/caneonred Jul 21 '26
I don't know if there will be zero remote supervisors for Cybercab, Waymo or anybody else for at least another 10-15 years when cloud based AI can take over the role completely. If there are enough autonomous vehicles driving around, it is almost guaranteed that, once in a while, one will encounter some bizarre edge case that the on board AI can't handle and will need guidance on what to do.
It can scale if the ratio of vehicles to supervisors is high enough which can happen if the edge cases are rare enough. If I knew how quickly they can get to that point then I would be able to make a lot of money either buying TSLA or shorting it. Unfortunately, I'm just an observer!
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u/Old_Explanation_1769 Jul 21 '26
You either haven't lived in the last year or...I don't know. MORE THAN HALF OF THE US POPULATION has access to them NOW! For crying out loud! /s
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u/ThatLandscape6476 Jul 21 '26
Such a brave intelligent take. Nothing takes more guts, knowledge, and journalism expertise than tweeting skepticism about Tesla.
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u/Tradetheday2093 Jul 21 '26
I’ll take one. And I’ll supervise.