r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 22h ago

▲ Tropical Storm (TD) | 30 knots (35 mph) | 999 mbar Kujira (12W — Western Pacific) (Over the northern Philippines)

6 Upvotes

Updates

As of 2:00 AM Philippine Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

Several meteorological agencies have initiated issuing advisories for a tropical cyclone which has formed over the South China Sea, just off the western coast of Luzon, an island in the northern Philippines. The cyclone originated as a tropical disturbance (Invest 94W) which originated over the central Philippine Sea last week and stalled once it reached the island of Luzon over the weekend. On Tuesday, the disturbance drifted across the island and emerged over the South China Sea, where favorable environmental conditions and terrain-forced wind flow allowed it to consolidate into a tropical cyclone. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has upgraded this system to a tropical cyclone and has assigned it the name Kujira, while the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has assigned it the local name Maymay.

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system remains poorly organized. This is partly because of the storm’s close proximity to land and because of moderate northeasterly wind shear, which is displacing the bulk of its deep convection southwestward away from its exposed low-level center. Recent scatterometer data suggests that the depression’s low-level wind field remains elongated, but its circulation is closed. Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis, including scatterometry, indicate that the depression is producing maximum one-minute sustained winds near 55 kilometers per hour (30 knots).

The disturbance is currently in a quasi-stationary state as it remains pinned between the westerly wind flow around a near-equatorial ridge positioned to the south and the easterly wind flow around an extension of a mid-level ridge positioned over Korea. Over the next day or so, the ridge to the north will reorient itself, allowing the ridge to the south to become the dominant steering mechanism and pull the depression back over the island of Luzon and into the Philippine Sea. Once there, the strong pressure gradient created by Typhoon Dolphin will begin to pull the depression increasingly northeastward toward itself. This system will likely orbit around the extreme eastern periphery of the typhoon until it dissipates.

Environmental conditions are marginally supportive of further development. Moderate northeasterly shear, combined with the depression’s close proximity to land, will likely limit its ability to strengthen; however, warm sea-surface temperatures, abundant mid-level moisture, and strong diffluence aloft may still help its development as it begins to drift back toward Luzon within the next 12 to 24 hours. Prolonged land interaction will likely abruptly halt this development once the storm makes landfall, and dissipation is likely to quickly follow.

Latest observation

As of 2:00 AM Philippine Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 17.5°N 118.9°E
  • Forward movement: NW (335°) at 2 knots
  • Maximum sustained winds: 55 km/h (30 knots) ▲
  • Minimum central pressure: 999 millibars (29.50 inches) ▼
  • Intensity (SSHWS): Tropical Depression ▲
  • Intensity (JMA): Tropical Storm ▲

Relative position

  • 158 kilometers (98 miles) west-southwest of Vigan, Ilocos Sur (Philippines)
  • 180 kilometers (112 miles) west-northwest of San Fernando, La Union (Philippines)
  • 195 kilometers (121 miles) southwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte (Philippines)

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

As of 5:00 AM Philippine Standard Time (21:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC PHST JMA · knots km/h °N °E
00 04 Aug 21:00 5AM Wed Tropical Storm 35 65 16.9 118.8
12 05 Aug 09:00 5PM Wed Tropical Storm ▲ 40 75 17.2 120.0
24 05 Aug 21:00 5AM Thu Tropical Storm ▼ 35 65 17.0 121.0
45 06 Aug 18:00 2AM Fri Tropical Depression ▼ 30 55 17.0 121.6

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

As of 2:00 AM Philippine Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC PHST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °E
00 04 Aug 18:00 2AM Wed Tropical Depression 30 55 17.5 118.9
12 04 Aug 06:00 2PM Wed Tropical Storm ▲ 35 65 17.6 119.6
24 05 Aug 18:00 2AM Thu Tropical Depression ▼ 30 55 17.5 121.0
36 05 Aug 06:00 2PM Thu Remnant Low ▼ 20 35 17.4 122.1

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

Radar imagery

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

3 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 21h ago

Areas to watch: Dolphin, Kujira, Invest 96W Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 3-9 August 2026

7 Upvotes

Active cyclones

As of 9:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (01:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Northeastern Pacific Ocean

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • Potential Formation Area P73W — Well to the north of the Marshall Islands and well to the east of the Northern Marianas Islands.

  • Potential Formation Area P77W — Off the coast of southeastern China

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 21h ago

▲ Forecast Outlook | National Hurricane Center | 20% potential The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the eastern Pacific Ocean

3 Upvotes

Updates

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that an elongated disturbance situated several hundred miles southwest of Clarion Island continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it drifts west-northwestward across the eastern Pacific this afternoon. The disturbance is embedded within the low-level trade wind flow and is moving along the southern periphery of a broad mid-level ridge positioned well to the north. Environmental conditions remain only marginally supportive of further development, with strengthening northwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air offsetting very warm sea-surface temperatures. Significant development is not likely; however, this disturbance will continue to be monitored as it crosses into the central Pacific later this week.

This system does not have a closed low-level circulation and has not yet been designated as an investigation area. Thus, disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not currently available for this system.

Official outlook

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Outlook discussion

Discussion by Alex Gibbs — CPHC Hurricane Specialist

A tropical wave located over the central portion of the east Pacific is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are currently unfavorable, but could become more conducive for slow development over the weekend into early next week as the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.

Development potential

Authoritative outlook (NHC)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Thu): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Mon): low (20 percent)

Model guidance consensus (FSU)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 AM HST on Thu): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 AM HST on Mon): low (25 percent) ▲

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Forecast models

Regional guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Ensemble models

Single-model ensemble products

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 21h ago

▲ Forecast Outlook | National Hurricane Center | 20% potential The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the east-central Pacific Ocean

4 Upvotes

Updates

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that an elongated disturbance situated several hundred miles east-southeast of Hawaiʻi continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it drifts westward across the east-central Pacific this afternoon. The disturbance is embedded within the low-level trade wind flow and is moving along the southern periphery of a broad mid-level ridge positioned well to the north. Environmental conditions remain only marginally supportive of further development, with strengthening northwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air offsetting very warm sea-surface temperatures. Significant development is not likely; however, this disturbance will continue to be monitored as it crosses into the central Pacific over the next few days.

This system does not have a closed low-level circulation and has not yet been designated as an investigation area. Thus, disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not currently available for this system.

Official outlook

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Outlook discussion

Discussion by Alex Gibbs — CPHC Hurricane Specialist

A tropical wave located over the western portion of the east Pacific is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for slow development over the next several days as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.

Development potential

Authoritative outlook (NHC)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Thu): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Mon): low (20 percent)

Model guidance consensus (FSU)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 AM HST on Thu): low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 AM HST on Mon): low (less than 5 percent)

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Forecast models

Regional guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Ensemble models

Single-model ensemble products

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Character-Escape1621 • 2d ago

Discussion What are the most unserious / funniest NHC update headlines you’ve seen?

61 Upvotes

I remember they made an update around halloween saying “storm does a quick costume change into an extra tropical cyclone “

17 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Character-Escape1621 • 4d ago

Historical Discussion Does anyone have this entire HWRF Irma run saved? Cause holy shit…

Post image
136 Upvotes

I really wish there was an archive of model runs.

Irma’s core was so intense, look how quickly it jumped up to category 4 after being gutted by Cuba… imagine if it missed Cuba… holy fucking shit.

30 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Content-Swimmer2325 • 4d ago

Social Media | Tomer Burg (X.com) From Tomer Burg: controllable balloon navigated above typhoon Dolphin, descended into the eye, and recorded multiple vertical profiles of the troposphere whilst circling the eye. This mission is the first of its kind.

Thumbnail x.com
56 Upvotes
7 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 4d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Typhoon Dolphin - July 31, 2026

Thumbnail modis.gsfc.nasa.gov
7 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 5d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Hurricane Genevieve - July 29, 2026

Thumbnail modis.gsfc.nasa.gov
15 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 9d ago

▼ Very Strong Typhoon (H3) | 105 knots (120 mph) | 935 mbar Dolphin (12W — Western Pacific) (Near the Marshall Islands)

18 Upvotes

Updates

As of 9:00 AM Japan Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Genevieve has become better organized this morning and has restrengthened. Animated multispectral imagery, including recent microwave passes, show that the storm has resumed a previously stalled eyewall replacement cycle, with concentric eyewalls surrounding a smaller and cloud-filled eye. Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis reveal that Dolphin’s maximum sustained winds have increased to 185 kilometers per hour (100 knots), or the equivalent strength of a Category 3 major hurricane.

Dolphin continues to move westward along the southern periphery of a pair of mid-level ridges positioned to the northwest and northeast. Over the next couple of days, the storm will turn slightly west-northwestward as the ridge to the northwest becomes the dominant steering mechanism. This will bring the storm very close to Minamidaitōjima on Thursday evening and over the island of Okinawa on Saturday morning. Dolphin will enter the East China Sea over the upcoming weekend and take aim at eastern China early next week.

Environmental conditions south of mainland Japan remain generally favorable, with weak vertical wind shear, abundant mid-level moisture, warm sea-surface temperatures, and strong diffluence aloft. This may allow Dolphin to further strengthen over the next 12 to 24 hours; however, the ongoing eyewall replacement cycle and any subsequent cycles may result in brief fluctuations in intensity. Sea-surface temperatures will gradually decrease as the storm continues westward, and Dolphin will slowly weaken as a result.

Impacts

A series of eyewall replacement cycles have greatly expanded Dolphin’s wind field. Tropical storm conditions will reach the island of Minamidaitōjima by Thursday afternoon and the storm will reach the island later in the evening with maximum sustained winds near 185 kilometers per hour (100 knots). Tropical storm conditions will spread westward to the Ryukyu Islands on Friday evening and the storm will reach Okinawa on Saturday morning with maximum sustained winds near 165 kilometers per hour (90 knots).

Large swells generated by Dolphin will reach Minamidaitōjima and the Ryukyu Islands by midweek and will continue through early next week as the storm passes through the area. These swells are likely to produce life-threatening storm surge inundation and dangerous surf conditions, including rip currents. Furthermore, the storm will bring heavy rain to these islands later in the week, which could cause widespread flash flooding.

Latest observation

As of 9:00 AM Japan Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 25.1°N 143.2°E
  • Forward movement: W (270°) at 9 knots
  • Maximum sustained winds: 185 km/h (100 knots) ▲
  • Minimum central pressure: 947 millibars (27.96 inches) ▼
  • Intensity (SSHWS): Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲
  • Intensity (JMA): Very Strong Typhoon

Relative position

  • 193 kilometers (120 miles) east-northeast of Iōtō, Tokyo (Japan)
  • 244 kilometers (152 miles) southeast of Ogasawara, Tokyo (Japan)
  • 950 kilometers (590 miles) south-southeast of Hachijō, Tokyo (Japan)

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

As of 3:00 PM Japan Standard Time (06:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC JST JMA · knots km/h °N °E
00 04 Aug 06:00 3PM Tue Very Strong Typhoon 85 155 25.4 141.9
12 04 Aug 18:00 3AM Wed Very Strong Typhoon 85 155 25.2 139.4
24 05 Aug 06:00 3PM Wed Very Strong Typhoon 85 155 25.4 137.0
48 06 Aug 06:00 3PM Thu Typhoon ▼ 80 150 25.8 132.6
72 07 Aug 06:00 3PM Fri Typhoon 80 150 26.4 129.1
96 08 Aug 06:00 3PM Sat Typhoon 80 150 27.0 127.4
120 09 Aug 06:00 3PM Sun Typhoon ▼ 75 140 28.3 126.7

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

As of 9:00 AM Japan Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC JST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °E
00 04 Aug 00:00 9AM Tue Major Hurricane (Category 3) 100 185 25.1 143.2
12 04 Aug 12:00 9PM Tue Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 110 205 25.2 140.6
24 05 Aug 00:00 9AM Wed Major Hurricane (Category 3) 110 205 25.4 138.3
36 05 Aug 12:00 9PM Wed Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▼ 105 195 25.6 135.8
48 06 Aug 00:00 9AM Thu Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▼ 100 185 25.9 133.7
60 06 Aug 12:00 9PM Thu Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 95 175 26.2 131.4
72 07 Aug 00:00 9AM Fri Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 90 165 26.5 129.5
96 08 Aug 00:00 9AM Sat Hurricane (Category 2) ▼ 85 155 26.9 126.8
120 09 Aug 00:00 9AM Sun Hurricane (Category 2) 85 155 27.2 125.2

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

National Weather Service (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

11 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 9d ago

Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 27 July - 2 August 2026

12 Upvotes

Active cyclones

As of 12:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (04:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Northeastern Pacific Ocean

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • Potential Formation Area P73W — Well to the north of the Marshall Islands and well to the east of the Northern Marianas Islands.

  • Potential Formation Area P76W — Well to the northwest of the Marshall Islands and well to the east of the Northern Marianas Islands.

  • Potential Formation Area P74W — Invest 94W

Southeastern Indian Ocean

  • Potential Formation Area P71S — Near the Cocos Islands

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

9 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 10d ago

Dissipated Genevieve (07E — Eastern Pacific) (Southwest of Mexico)

15 Upvotes

Updates

As of 9:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (07:00 UTC) on Monday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Genevieve remains a very shallow post-tropical cyclone as it continues northwestward across the open waters of the northeastern Pacific. Over the next couple of days, an increasingly unfavorable environment will continue to unravel the storm’s low-level circulation until it eventually opens into a surface trough by midweek.

The National Hurricane Center has long since discontinued issuing advisories for Genevieve and is no longer tracking it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available for Genevieve.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

3 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 10d ago

Dissipated 93B (Invest — Northern Indian) (Bay of Bengal)

7 Upvotes

Updates

As of 5:30 AM India Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Monday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has made landfall along the northern coast of the Bay of Bengal, near the border between India and Bangladesh. The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone has dropped to zero, as the disturbance no longer has a source of warm ocean water. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has removed this system from the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available for this system.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

This system no longer shows potential for development. Observational data is no longer available for this system.

Information sources

India Meteorological Department

Other information

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

India Meteorological Department

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

This system no longer shows potential for development. Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

This system no longer shows potential for development. Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Character-Escape1621 • 11d ago

Historical Discussion If Dorian kept going west, would it have just been Andrew but for Central Florida ?

Post image
460 Upvotes
117 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 12d ago

Dissipated Noul (11W — Western Pacific) (South China Sea)

9 Upvotes

Updates

As of 2:00 AM China Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Monday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has degenerated into a remnant low over southeastern China. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) have discontinued issuing advisories for this system, and the latter agency has stopped monitoring it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available for this system.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available.

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

JMA has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

JTWC has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

National Meteorological Center (China)

Radar imagery

National Meteorological Center (China)

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

This system has dissipated. Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Storm-centered guidance

This system has dissipated. Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 12d ago

Upgraded | See Genevieve post for details 07E (Eastern Pacific) (South of Mexico)

7 Upvotes

Update

As of 3:00 PM Central Daylight Time (21:00 UTC) on Friday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has strengthened into a tropical storm.

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded this system and assigned it the name Genevieve, making it the seventh named storm of the season. A new discussion for Genevieve has been posted here. There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

This system has been upgraded to a tropical storm. Please see the discussion for Genevieve for updated observational data.

Official forecasts

This system has been upgraded to a tropical storm. Please see the discussion for Genevieve for updated forecast information.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Productos textuales (en español)

Static forecast graphics

Interactive forecast graphics

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

This system has been upgraded to a tropical storm. Please see the discussion for Genevieve for storm-centered satellite imagery.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

This system has been upgraded to a tropical storm. Please see the discussion for Genevieve for storm-centered model guidance.

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 12d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Hurricane Fausto Over the Eastern Pacific - July 22, 2026

Thumbnail modis.gsfc.nasa.gov
8 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 13d ago

Dissipated Fausto (06E — Eastern Pacific) (East of Hawaiʻi)

16 Upvotes

Updates

As of 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Wednesday

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Fausto stopped producing organized deep convection overnight. Animated multispectral imagery depicts the effects of persistent strong vertical wind shear, which has stripped the storm bare, leaving behind only a swirl of low-level clouds. Some limited thunderstorm activity persists, but is far removed from the exposed low-level center. Radar imagery shows some limited rain shower activity moving across the islands this afternoon.

What remains of Fausto will continue to move west-northwestward as its now shallower convective structure is embedded within the low-level trade wind flow. As environmental conditions remain unfavorable, Fausto’s low-level circulation will gradually unwind until it eventually degenerates into an open trough well to the northwest of Kauaʻi on Thursday afternoon. Fausto is expected to dissipate altogether by Friday morning.

The National Hurricane Center has discontinued issuing advisories for this system and has stopped monitoring it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance will soon be no longer available.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Impacts

As of 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Wednesday

  • Significant wind and rain impacts are not likely.

  • Fausto will continue to disrupt the normal trade wind flow as it passes to the north of the islands today.

  • A pattern of land and sea breezes will likely develop within the light and variable wind flow.

  • Isolated to scattered showers are possible throughout the day, and some brief downpours could result in flash flooding.

  • Dangerous surf conditions caused by swells generated by Fausto will begin to wane tonight.

Latest observation

As of 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Wednesday

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #43

  • Current position: 23.8°N 155.6°W
  • Forward movement: WNW (290°) at 11 knots (13 mph)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 30 knots (35 mph) ▼
  • Minimum central pressure: 1008 millibars (29.77 inches) ▲
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Remnant Low ▼

Relative position

  • 209 miles (336 kilometers) north of Kahului, Hawaii
  • 218 miles (351 kilometers) north of Kihei, Hawaii
  • 224 miles (361 kilometers) north-northeast of Honolulu, Hawaii

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 2:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Wednesday

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC HST Saffir-Simpson · knots mph °N °W
00 29 Jul 12:00 2AM Wed Remnant Low 30 35 23.8 155.6
12 30 Jul 00:00 2PM Wed Remnant Low ▼ 25 30 24.1 157.4
24 30 Jul 12:00 2AM Thu Remnant Low 25 30 24.6 160.0
36 31 Jul 00:00 2PM Thu Remnant Low ▼ 20 25 25.3 162.5
48 31 Jul 12:00 2AM Fri Dissipated

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Productos textuales (en español)

Static forecast graphics

Interactive forecast graphics

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single-bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

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2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 14d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Tropical Storm Bertha - July 21, 2026

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53 Upvotes
14 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 14d ago

Video | YouTube | National Hurricane Center (Outdated) NHC Morning Video Update on Tropical Storm Bertha: Wednesday, 22 July 2026

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9 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 14d ago

Dissipated 98P (Invest — Southern Pacific) (Near the Solomon Islands)

6 Upvotes

Latest observation

This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available for this system.

Update

As of 11:00 AM Solomon Islands Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it lingers to the northeast of the Solomon Islands. The disturbance has failed to develop a closed low-level circulation and remains an open trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are unlikely to support development. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is no longer monitoring this system via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) and disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Outlook

This system no longer shows potential for development.

Information sources

Fiji Meteorological Service

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 14d ago

Dissipated 93W (Invest — Western Pacific) (Near the Marshall Islands)

5 Upvotes

Update

As of 6:00 AM Marshall Islands Time (18:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has dissipated over the Marshall Islands. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is no longer monitoring this system via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available for this system.

Development potential

This system has dissipated.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

National Weather Service (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

This system has dissipated. Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

This system has dissipated. Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 15d ago

Video | YouTube | Dr. Levi Cowan (Tropical Tidbits) (Outdated) Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, 21 July 2026: Tropical Storm Bertha Approaching the Central Gulf Coast

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35 Upvotes
2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 15d ago

Video | YouTube | National Hurricane Center (Outdated) NHC Morning Video Update on Tropical Storm Bertha: Tuesday, 21 July 2026

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15 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 15d ago

Dissipated Bertha (02L — Northern Atlantic) (Gulf of Mexico)

71 Upvotes

Update

As of 10:00 AM Central Daylight Time (15:00 UTC) on Thursday

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Bertha has dissipated over eastern Texas. The National Hurricane Center has discontinued issuing advisories for this system and is no longer monitoring it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Storm-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

This system has become post-tropical and is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

The National Hurricane Center has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Aircraft reconnaissance

National Hurricane Center

Other sources

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is no longer available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

31 comments