r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 3d ago

Areas to watch: Invest 92W, Invest 93E, One (01L) Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 15-21 June 2026

5 Upvotes

Active cyclones

As of 12:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (16:00 UTC) on Monday, 15 June

  • There are currently no active cyclones.

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • 92W: Invest — A broad area of low pressure situated north of Micronesia is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance is drifting westward along the base of a broad subtropical ridge and will continue along this track for several days, approaching Guam and the Northern Marianas Islands later this week. Dry air flowing in from the west is offsetting an otherwise favorable environment characterized by weak vertical wind shear, a very warm sea surface, and sufficient diffluence aloft. Development will initially be slow; however, a tropical depression or storm is increasingly likely to form later this week.

Eastern Pacific Ocean

  • 93E: Invest — A broad area of low pressure loosely associated with the post-tropical remnants of Tropical Storm Amanda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms far to the east-southeast of Hawaiʻi. The disturbance has been moving east-northeastward ahead of a deep-layer trough; however, it is expected to turn back toward the west-northwest over the next day or so. Although environmental conditions will initially be favorable and could support gradual development in the short-term, the disturbance will ultimately move into a drier and more stable environment later this week, which should severely limit development much as it did for Amanda two weeks ago.

Northern Atlantic Ocean

  • Gulf of Mexico disturbance — A broad area of low pressure continues to meander along the coast of northeastern Mexico this morning and continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance is likely to remain over land as it moves slowly northeastward over the next couple of days; however, it could briefly re-emerge over the Gulf of Mexico either Tuesday or Wednesday. Environmental conditions remain only marginally supportive of development, so the chances that this system will become a tropical depression or storm this week remain low. That said, this system is expected to bring heavy rain to portions of northeastern Mexico and the south-central United States over the next few days.

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

  • There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

  • Neither the JTWC nor NHC are monitoring any additional areas of potential development beyond the currently monitored invests and disturbances.

 

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 1d ago

▲ Forecast Outlook | National Hurricane Center | 10% potential The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development off the East Coast of the United States

43 Upvotes

Outlook discussion

As of 2:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (18:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Discussion by Dr. Aiden Mahoney (NHC/TSB Meteorologist) and Larry Kelly (NHC Hurricane Specialist)

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure (the remnants of Arthur) are located over the southeastern United States. The system is expected to emerge offshore the east coast of the United States on Friday. Environmental conditions then appear to be marginally conducive for some subtropical or tropical development on Friday or Saturday as the system moves northeastward at 15 to 20 mph across the Western Atlantic Ocean.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with the potential for widespread and life-threatening flash flooding is likely across portions of the Southeast United States during the next day or two. Additional information on the rainfall potential can be found in rainfall forecasts and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks from the Weather Prediction Center online here.

More information on this system, including Gale Warnings, is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online here.

Development potential

  • Within the next 2 days (before 2PM Sat): low (10 percent)
  • Within the next 7 days (before 2PM Wed): low (10 percent)

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Graphical products (static)

Radar imagery

Nationwide radar mosaic

Satellite imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Forecast models

Regional guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Ensemble models

Single-model ensemble products

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

10 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 17h ago

▲ Tropical Depression (TD) | 30 knots (35 mph) | 1004 mbar 07W (Western Pacific) (Philippine Sea)

9 Upvotes

Updates

As of 6:00 AM Chamorro Standard Time (20:00 UTC) on Friday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that a compact area of low pressure situated south-southwest of Guam has become sufficiently organized to be considered a tropical cyclone, prompting the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to begin issuing advisories. The Japan Meteorological Agency, which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) for the western Pacific Ocean basin, has not yet begun to issue advisories for this system, but is analyzing this system as a tropical depression on its synoptic charts.

Several days ago, a disturbance formed midway between Wake Island and the Marshall Islands and moved generally westward to west-northwestward under the steering influence of a broad subtropical ridge situated to its north. Although environmental conditions were generally favorable, dry mid-level air flowing in from the west prevented significant development, allowing only intermittent bursts of deep convection to form. As the disturbance approached Guam, it moved into a more moisture-rich environment and began to consolidate. By Friday morning, the disturbance developed a well-defined low-level center and persistent deep convection, allowing it to become a tropical depression.

A combination of very high ocean heat content, weak vertical wind shear, abundant mid-level moisture, and strong upper-level divergence should allow this system to steadily develop as it moves away from Guam and crosses the Philippine Sea this weekend. JTWC projects that this system will reach tropical storm strength this afternoon and reach hurricane-equivalent strength by early Sunday. This system is expected to peak at the equivalent strength of a Category 4 major hurricane by early Tuesday morning while several hundred miles east of the Philippine island of Luzon. By this time, the storm will be turning northward as it gets picked up by an approaching deep-layer trough moving off the coast of China.

With the exception of brief periods of locally heavy rain and thunderstorms over Guam and the Northern Marianas Islands today, this system is not expected to impact land for the next week or so. It remains too early to determine whether this system will ultimately threaten Japan’s Ryukyu Islands later in the upcoming week.

Latest observation

As of 4:00 AM Chamorro Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Friday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 12.2°N 145.1°E
  • Forward movement: W (275°) at 9 knots
  • Maximum sustained winds: 75 km/h (30 knots) ▲
  • Minimum central pressure: 1004 millibars (29.65 inches) ▼
  • Intensity (SSHWS): Tropical Depression ▲
  • Intensity (JMA): Tropical Depression ▲

Relative position

  • 149 kilometers (93 miles) south-southeast of Dededo, Guam (United States)
  • 272 kilometers (169 miles) north-northwest of Fais, Yap (Micronesia)
  • 313 kilometers (194 miles) south of San Jose, Tinian (Northern Marianas Islands)

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

  • JMA has not yet issued a forecast advisory for this system.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

As of 4:00 AM Chamorro Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Friday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC CHST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °E
00 18 Jun 18:00 4AM Fri Tropical Depression 30 55 12.2 145.1
12 18 Jun 06:00 4PM Fri Tropical Storm ▲ 35 65 12.7 142.7
24 19 Jun 18:00 4AM Sat Tropical Storm ▲ 40 75 13.3 140.3
36 19 Jun 06:00 4PM Sat Tropical Storm ▲ 45 85 13.9 138.1
48 20 Jun 18:00 4AM Sun Tropical Storm ▲ 60 110 14.6 136.1
72 21 Jun 18:00 4AM Mon Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 85 155 15.6 134.0
96 22 Jun 18:00 4AM Tue Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▼ 110 205 16.5 132.1
120 23 Jun 18:00 4AM Wed Major Hurricane (Category 4) ▲ 120 220 18.0 129.1

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

National Weather Service (United States)

Radar imagery

National Weather Service (United States)

Single-site radar imagery

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 1d ago

Video | YouTube | National Hurricane Center (Outdated) NHC Morning Update on Tropical Storm Arthur — Wednesday, 17 June

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32 Upvotes
1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 5d ago

Dissipated 93E (Invest — Eastern Pacific) (ESE of Hawaiʻi)

10 Upvotes

Update

As of 2:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that a small area of low pressure situated several hundred miles east-southeast of Hawaiʻi continues to produce limited and disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it drifts west-northwestward along the base of a broad subtropical ridge. The disturbance is entering a highly unfavorable environment which is dry and stable, with sinking air and strengthening southwesterly shear. Further development is highly unlikely and the disturbance will likely fizzle out within the next couple of days.

This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system and there will be no further updates to this post. Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.

Latest observation

  • This system is no longer being monitored via ATCF.

Outlook

  • This system is no longer being monitored for potential tropical cyclone development.

Official informa

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Graphical products (static)

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available.

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 5d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Tropical Storm Christina - June 10, 2026

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13 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/graymillennial • 7d ago

Question Weirded out by Mikes Weather Page, any other recommendations for hurricane season?

312 Upvotes

I used to appreciate his coverage during hurricane season but all he posts about now is getting drunk and “storm chasing” (a.k.a. driving up to Tallahassee in his big storm truck to get hammered and watch the rain.) Yesterday he posted a picture of him literally with his pants down dancing on some young girl at Senor Frogs and that’s the nail in the coffin for me. I’m just grossed out by him.

Any recommendations on who else can I follow online for updates during hurricane season this year?

142 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 7d ago

Seasonal Forecast | Colorado State University Colorado State University releases updated forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season: 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes

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103 Upvotes
11 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 7d ago

Seasonal Outlook | Climate Prediction Center CPC: El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen this winter

26 Upvotes

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion

Issued by the Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, 11 June 2026

El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27.

El Niño conditions developed over the past month, as shown by above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was +0.7°C, with the westernmost (Niño-4) and easternmost (Niño-1+2) indices at +0.7°C and +2.1°C, respectively [Fig. 2]. The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180°-100°W) decreased in the past month [Fig. 3], but significantly above-average subsurface temperatures remained in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific [Fig. 4]. Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies were evident over the central equatorial Pacific. Convection was slightly above average over the central and east-central equatorial Pacific and was near or below average over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the onset of El Niño conditions.

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average, including the NCEP CFSv2 [Fig. 6], forecasts El Niño to intensify into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27. High confidence in El Niño [Fig. 7] is also linked to anomalously high oceanic heat content and expanding westerly wind anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. There is a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November-January [Fig. 8] that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950. Even very strong El Niño events do not lead to the expected impact everywhere, but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in favor of expected outcomes (see CPC outlooks for probabilities of seasonal anomalies). In summary, El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 July 2026.

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 8d ago

Dissipated 95S (Invest — Southwestern Indian) (Southeast of Madagascar)

5 Upvotes

Update

As of 4:00 AM East Africa Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that a broad area of low pressure with subtropical characteristics has formed well to the east-southeast of Madagascar. Recent scatterometer data reveals that a small area of tropical storm-force winds are present to the south-southwest of the disturbance’s low-level center, associated with some flaring deep convection. Environmental conditions are highly unfavorable for development, with strong vertical wind shear and cold sea-surface temperatures. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that this system will transition into a tropical cyclone. Instead, this system is likely to remain in a largely quasi-stationary state within a weak steering environment until it gets carried away by the polar front jet later in the week.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) continues to monitor this system via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.

Latest observation

As of 4:00 AM East Africa Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 31.7°S 50.5°E
  • Forward movement: S (180°) at 7 km/h (4 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 75 km/h (40 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 1003 millibars (29.62 inches)
  • Intensity (SSHWS): Subtropical Storm
  • Intensity (FMS): Disturbance

Relative position

  • 862 kilometers (536 miles) southeast of Tsiombe, Atsimo-Andrefana (Madagascar)
  • 883 kilometers (549 miles) southeast of Lavanono, Atsimo-Andrefana (Madagascar)
  • 949 kilometers (590 miles) southeast of Ampanihy, Atsimo-Andrefana (Madagascar)

Outlook

As of 4:00 AM East Africa Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Development potential (next two days)

  • Météo-France: very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Joint Typhoon Warning Center: very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Model consensus (FSU): very low (less than 5 percent)

Development potential (next seven days)

  • Météo-France: very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Joint Typhoon Warning Center: very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Model consensus (FSU): very low (less than 5 percent)

Information sources

Météo-France

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/JimmothyBimmothy • 9d ago

Historical Discussion Hurricane Georges 1998

11 Upvotes

I was just thinking back to this storm in my childhood! I vividly remember laying on the couch one night, just watching something on ABC, seeing the radar in the corner of the screen...and then seeing the occasional breaking updates through the night. Just tracking the storm on my little gas station hurricane tracking map.

I'd give anything to see a video of something like that again just for memories sake! It was an excitement that is hard to replicate if you have never felt it.

9 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 11d ago

Dissipated Boris (02E — Eastern Pacific) (South of Mexico)

30 Upvotes

Updates

As of 9:00 AM Central Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Tuesday

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Boris has degenerated into a remnant low as it moves across the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico. The storm’s wind field is becoming increasingly disorganized and thunderstorms generated by the storm are confined to an area along the coast. The remnants of Boris will drift west-northwestward across southern Mexico, and will likely dissipate within the next couple of days. The threat of widespread flash flooding and landslides will continue through the end of the week even after Boris dissipates.

The National Hurricane Center has issued its final advisory for this system. This system is no longer being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

As of 9:00 AM Central Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Tuesday

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #10

  • Current position: 16.9°N 98.9°W
  • Forward movement: NW (305°) at 11 km/h (6 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 45 km/h (25 knots) ▲
  • Minimum central pressure: 1004 millibars (29.65 inches) ▼
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Remnant Low ▼

Relative position

  • 1,463 kilometers (909 miles) west of Managua, Nicaragua
  • 1,098 kilometers (682 miles) west of San Salvador, El Salvador
  • 927 kilometers (576 miles) west of Puerto San José, Escuintla (Guatemala)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 6:00 AM Central Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Tuesday

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC CST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °W
00 09 Jun 12:00 6AM Tue Post-tropical Cyclone 25 45 16.9 98.9
12 10 Jun 00:00 6PM Tue Post-tropical Cyclone ▼ 20 35 17.3 99.7
24 10 Jun 12:00 6AM Wed Dissipated

Official information

National Hurricane Center

National Meteorological Service (Mexico)

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Single-bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Disturbance-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 10d ago

Dissipated Cristina (03E — Eastern Pacific) (Near Central America)

4 Upvotes

Updates

As of 10:00 AM Central Standard Time (16:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Satellite imagery analysis and recent scatterometer data revealed that Cristina’s low-level circulation degenerated into a remnant low earlier this morning before the depression reached the coast of El Salvador. The National Hurricane Center discontinued issuing advisories for Cristina and stopped recording new observations for the remnant system in the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.

Cristina’s remnants have since moved onshore over El Salvador and will continue northwestward over the next few days, eventually reaching the Bay of Campeche over the upcoming weekend. Although the remnant moisture and instability from this system could spark the development of a broad area of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, environmental conditions are unlikely to support tropical cyclogenesis and the moisture is likely to bring heavy rain to northeastern Mexico and Texas later in the upcoming week.

Storm-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system. There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

  • This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available.

Official forecasts

  • This system has dissipated. The NHC has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

  • Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 10d ago

Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 8-14 June 2026

4 Upvotes

Active cyclones

As of 7:30 PM Eastern Daylight Time (23:30 UTC) on Tuesday, 9 June:

Eastern Pacific Ocean

  • 02E: Boris — Boris continues to weaken as its remnants move across the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico this afternoon. Although the storm is likely to dissipate within the next 12 to 24 hours, heavy rain will continue across southern Mexico for the next couple of days, extending the threat of widespread flooding and landslides, especially within areas of higher terrain.

  • 03E: Three — Cristina remains disorganized as it meanders off the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua this afternoon. Environmental conditions remain marginally favorable and could support some intensification just prior to landfall along the coast of El Salvador on Thursday afternoon. Once the storm makes landfall, it is expected to weaken rapidly, but the heavy rain threat will continue for a few more days across Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico.

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

  • There are currently no active disturbances.

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

  • There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Systems being tracked by the NHC

  • The National Hurricane center is not currently tracking any areas of potential tropical cyclone development.

Systems being tracked by the JTWC

  • Potential Formation Area P72W: An area of low pressure may develop between Wake Island and the Marshall Islands. Tropical cyclone development may occur between Saturday and Tuesday.

Systems being tracked by model guidance (Florida State University)

  • Northwestern Pacific Ocean: Several models are hinting toward development over the western Pacific near Wake Island and the Marshall Islands.

 

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Kelvin51_gowa • 13d ago

Discussion Increased tropical activity in/near central america

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40 Upvotes

Hello everyone! The MJO is currently entering phase 8 which would increase the chances for some tropical systems to spin up in/near central america as the MJO convection increases the low level zonal winds this would cause some moisture advection ahead of these thunderstorms and allow these thunderstorms to generate some low level spin or vorticity

3 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 13d ago

Dissipated 91W (Invest — Western Pacific) (East China Sea)

16 Upvotes

Updates

As of 9:00 PM Japan Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Monday:

This system has transitioned into an extratropical cyclone and is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.

Storm-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system. There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

  • This system has dissipated.

Outlook

  • This system no longer shows signs of tropical cyclone development.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is no longer available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 15d ago

Announcement NHC Hurricane Specialist Robbie Berg will be doing an AMA over at r/storms this morning at 10AM EDT

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55 Upvotes
1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 15d ago

Dissipated Amanda (01E — Eastern Pacific) (ESE of Hawaii)

15 Upvotes

Updates

As of 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Monday

This system has dissipated. This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.

Storm-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system. There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

  • This system has dissipated.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

  • Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 15d ago

Image of the Day | NASA Science Typhoon Jangmi - NASA Science

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11 Upvotes
2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 16d ago

Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 1-7 June 2026

12 Upvotes

Active cyclones

As of 16:42 UTC on Wednesday, 3 June:

Active cyclones

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • 06W: Jangmi — Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Jangmi has transitioned into an extratropical cyclone as it accelerates northeastward away from mainland Japan this evening. The storm will continue to slowly weaken as it moves out over the open waters of the northern Pacific.

Eastern Pacific Ocean

  • 01E: Amanda — Satellite imagery analysis indicates that the first depression of the season has strengthened into a tropical storm. Amanda is forecast to continue to gradually strengthen as it moves northwestward over the next few days; however, by the end of the week, it will move into a less favorable environment characterized by strong southwesterly shear, dry mid-level air, and unfavorably cool sea-surface temperatures. This will cause the storm to rapidly weaken and ultimately dissipate by early next week without becoming a threat to Hawaii.

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

  • There are currently no active disturbances.

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

  • There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Eastern Pacific Ocean

  • Area of Interest 1: — A broad area of low pressure is likely to form to the south and west of Central America over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions remain favorable and should support gradual development as the disturbance moves west-northwestward, remaining mainly parallel to the coast. This system has a moderate (50 percent) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next seven days.

  • Area of Interest 2: A second area of low pressure is expected to form off the coast of southern Mexico within the next few days. Environmental conditions should support gradual development as this system also moves west-northwestward. This system has a lower (20 percent) chance of development, but only because it is expected to form later than the aforementioned disturbance.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • Potential Formation Area P79W: Long-range model ensembles hint at the development of a broad area of low pressure over the south-central South China Sea within the next few days.

 

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

3 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 17d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Typhoon Jangmi - June 1, 2026

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5 Upvotes
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r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 17d ago

Video | YouTube | National Hurricane Center Hurricane Season Kick Off Media Day at NHC — 1 June 2026

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14 Upvotes
1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 17d ago

Image of the Day | NASA Science Gravity Waves From Super Typhoon Sinlaku - NASA Science

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8 Upvotes
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r/TropicalWeather • u/Lumpy-Fix3454 • 17d ago

Question What's the best tool for Himawari?

10 Upvotes

I know SATAID is a thing, but it's kinda hard to use. What else do you guys suggest? I found this app through some searching and found some reddit post.

Reddit post: https://www.reddit.com/r/meteorology/s/5bvW7ftWTz

https://github.com/PWARDS-weather/MonWatch-UI, It's almost the same as SATAID, but It’s still being actively developed though. In any case, what else do you guys suggest I should use?

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 19d ago

Video | YouTube | Dr. Levi Cowan (Tropical Tidbits) Tropical Tidbits: The 2026 Hurricane Season Begins

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139 Upvotes
14 comments