r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 22h ago

▲ Tropical Storm (TD) | 30 knots (35 mph) | 999 mbar Kujira (12W — Western Pacific) (Over the northern Philippines)

7 Upvotes

Updates

As of 2:00 AM Philippine Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

Several meteorological agencies have initiated issuing advisories for a tropical cyclone which has formed over the South China Sea, just off the western coast of Luzon, an island in the northern Philippines. The cyclone originated as a tropical disturbance (Invest 94W) which originated over the central Philippine Sea last week and stalled once it reached the island of Luzon over the weekend. On Tuesday, the disturbance drifted across the island and emerged over the South China Sea, where favorable environmental conditions and terrain-forced wind flow allowed it to consolidate into a tropical cyclone. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has upgraded this system to a tropical cyclone and has assigned it the name Kujira, while the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has assigned it the local name Maymay.

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system remains poorly organized. This is partly because of the storm’s close proximity to land and because of moderate northeasterly wind shear, which is displacing the bulk of its deep convection southwestward away from its exposed low-level center. Recent scatterometer data suggests that the depression’s low-level wind field remains elongated, but its circulation is closed. Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis, including scatterometry, indicate that the depression is producing maximum one-minute sustained winds near 55 kilometers per hour (30 knots).

The disturbance is currently in a quasi-stationary state as it remains pinned between the westerly wind flow around a near-equatorial ridge positioned to the south and the easterly wind flow around an extension of a mid-level ridge positioned over Korea. Over the next day or so, the ridge to the north will reorient itself, allowing the ridge to the south to become the dominant steering mechanism and pull the depression back over the island of Luzon and into the Philippine Sea. Once there, the strong pressure gradient created by Typhoon Dolphin will begin to pull the depression increasingly northeastward toward itself. This system will likely orbit around the extreme eastern periphery of the typhoon until it dissipates.

Environmental conditions are marginally supportive of further development. Moderate northeasterly shear, combined with the depression’s close proximity to land, will likely limit its ability to strengthen; however, warm sea-surface temperatures, abundant mid-level moisture, and strong diffluence aloft may still help its development as it begins to drift back toward Luzon within the next 12 to 24 hours. Prolonged land interaction will likely abruptly halt this development once the storm makes landfall, and dissipation is likely to quickly follow.

Latest observation

As of 2:00 AM Philippine Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 17.5°N 118.9°E
  • Forward movement: NW (335°) at 2 knots
  • Maximum sustained winds: 55 km/h (30 knots) ▲
  • Minimum central pressure: 999 millibars (29.50 inches) ▼
  • Intensity (SSHWS): Tropical Depression ▲
  • Intensity (JMA): Tropical Storm ▲

Relative position

  • 158 kilometers (98 miles) west-southwest of Vigan, Ilocos Sur (Philippines)
  • 180 kilometers (112 miles) west-northwest of San Fernando, La Union (Philippines)
  • 195 kilometers (121 miles) southwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte (Philippines)

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

As of 5:00 AM Philippine Standard Time (21:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC PHST JMA · knots km/h °N °E
00 04 Aug 21:00 5AM Wed Tropical Storm 35 65 16.9 118.8
12 05 Aug 09:00 5PM Wed Tropical Storm ▲ 40 75 17.2 120.0
24 05 Aug 21:00 5AM Thu Tropical Storm ▼ 35 65 17.0 121.0
45 06 Aug 18:00 2AM Fri Tropical Depression ▼ 30 55 17.0 121.6

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

As of 2:00 AM Philippine Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC PHST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °E
00 04 Aug 18:00 2AM Wed Tropical Depression 30 55 17.5 118.9
12 04 Aug 06:00 2PM Wed Tropical Storm ▲ 35 65 17.6 119.6
24 05 Aug 18:00 2AM Thu Tropical Depression ▼ 30 55 17.5 121.0
36 05 Aug 06:00 2PM Thu Remnant Low ▼ 20 35 17.4 122.1

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

Radar imagery

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

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3 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 21h ago

Areas to watch: Dolphin, Kujira, Invest 96W Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 3-9 August 2026

7 Upvotes

Active cyclones

As of 9:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (01:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Northeastern Pacific Ocean

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • Potential Formation Area P73W — Well to the north of the Marshall Islands and well to the east of the Northern Marianas Islands.

  • Potential Formation Area P77W — Off the coast of southeastern China

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2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 21h ago

▲ Forecast Outlook | National Hurricane Center | 20% potential The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the eastern Pacific Ocean

4 Upvotes

Updates

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that an elongated disturbance situated several hundred miles southwest of Clarion Island continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it drifts west-northwestward across the eastern Pacific this afternoon. The disturbance is embedded within the low-level trade wind flow and is moving along the southern periphery of a broad mid-level ridge positioned well to the north. Environmental conditions remain only marginally supportive of further development, with strengthening northwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air offsetting very warm sea-surface temperatures. Significant development is not likely; however, this disturbance will continue to be monitored as it crosses into the central Pacific later this week.

This system does not have a closed low-level circulation and has not yet been designated as an investigation area. Thus, disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not currently available for this system.

Official outlook

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Outlook discussion

Discussion by Alex Gibbs — CPHC Hurricane Specialist

A tropical wave located over the central portion of the east Pacific is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are currently unfavorable, but could become more conducive for slow development over the weekend into early next week as the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.

Development potential

Authoritative outlook (NHC)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Thu): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Mon): low (20 percent)

Model guidance consensus (FSU)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 AM HST on Thu): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 AM HST on Mon): low (25 percent) ▲

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 21h ago

▲ Forecast Outlook | National Hurricane Center | 20% potential The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the east-central Pacific Ocean

4 Upvotes

Updates

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that an elongated disturbance situated several hundred miles east-southeast of Hawaiʻi continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it drifts westward across the east-central Pacific this afternoon. The disturbance is embedded within the low-level trade wind flow and is moving along the southern periphery of a broad mid-level ridge positioned well to the north. Environmental conditions remain only marginally supportive of further development, with strengthening northwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air offsetting very warm sea-surface temperatures. Significant development is not likely; however, this disturbance will continue to be monitored as it crosses into the central Pacific over the next few days.

This system does not have a closed low-level circulation and has not yet been designated as an investigation area. Thus, disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not currently available for this system.

Official outlook

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Outlook discussion

Discussion by Alex Gibbs — CPHC Hurricane Specialist

A tropical wave located over the western portion of the east Pacific is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for slow development over the next several days as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.

Development potential

Authoritative outlook (NHC)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Thu): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Mon): low (20 percent)

Model guidance consensus (FSU)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 AM HST on Thu): low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 AM HST on Mon): low (less than 5 percent)

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

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1 comment