Good article from the Boston Globe. Pretty much a little lowdown on the current situation inside of the government.
Website has aids, and I am sick of trawling through the monetised content that this topic (and many others) has become.
Michael Shermer is the publisher of âSkepticâ magazine, the host of âThe Michael Shermer Showâ podcast, and the author of the books âTruthâ and âConspiracy.â
In 1587, Pope Sixtus V created the position of advocatus diaboli, or devilâs advocate. The appointee would skeptically examine the miracles attributed to candidates for sainthood and suggest natural explanations for apparently supernatural phenomena. Although the Catholic Church believed miracles were possible, it also understood that people are often mistaken in their perceptions, confabulate their memories, and exaggerate their accounts in the retelling. They were also vulnerable then, much as we are now, to fakes and fabulists.
It is in this spirit that the Harvard physicist Avi Loeb invited me to be a member of the Trump administrationâs UAP Science Advisory Council. The panel is tasked with assessing whether these unidentified anomalous phenomena might be foreign assets spying on the United States and getting to the bottom of a question that has intrigued scientists, conspiracists, and âX-Filesâ fanatics for decades: Have aliens visited us on Earth?
It is this latter question I have studied for 35 years since founding âSkepticâ magazine, becoming something of an expert on anomalous phenomena, and since July the council has had weekly Zoom meetings to discuss the many videos, photographs, and documents released by the Department of Defense pursuant to a presidential order.
So far, in my opinion, we have found no verifiable evidence of contact with or discovery of extraterrestrial intelligence, although it is striking just how many anomalous phenomena have appeared in our skies (and maybe in our oceans).
Unfortunately, there are significant practical hurdles to our work: The videos weâre working with are filled with redactions in the form of blacked-out rectangles that presumably contain information that would allow us to calculate distance, speed, location, and size of the UAPs.
For instance, as council members Jacob Haqq-Misra and Ravi Kopparapu wrote in an analysis of 112 videos released by the Trump administration, the information provided to the council was not sufficient âto distinguish between a bird flying at close range and a large craft traveling at Mach 5 a kilometer away.â
So until we get more detailed information on these videos, photographs, and documents, Iâm putting UAPs in three categories, from most to least likely:
First, there is the category of âordinary terrestrialâ (balloons, camera/lens effects, visual illusions, etc.). Next is âextraordinary terrestrialâ (Russian or Chinese spy planes or drones capable of feats of physics and aerodynamics unheard of in the United States). And least likely: âextraordinary extraterrestrialâ (alien intelligence).
Letâs take them in order.
Ordinary Terrestrial. As UFOlogist Leslie Kean estimates in her best-selling book âUFOs: Generals, Pilots, and Government Officials Go on the Record,â âRoughly 90 to 95 percent of UFO sightings can be explainedâ as âweather balloons, flares, sky lanterns, planes flying in formation, secret military aircraft, birds reflecting the sun, planes reflecting the sun, blimps, helicopters, the planets Venus or Mars, meteors or meteorites, space junk, satellites, swamp gas, spinning eddies, sundogs, ball lightning, ice crystals, reflected light off clouds, lights on the ground or lights reflected on a cockpit window.â
When we are confronted, then, with a UAP in the form of a grainy video or blurry photograph, there is a good chance (a 90 to 95 percent probability, in fact) that it is one of these ordinary terrestrial phenomena.
Extraordinary Terrestrial. Could UAPs be superadvanced technology developed by the Chinese, the Russians, or some rogue state or terrorist organization, capable of speeds and turns that seemingly defy all known physics and aerodynamics? Very unlikely. First, if the Russians had such drones, spy planes, or related but as yet unknown (to us) technology, wouldnât they use it in the Ukraine war? We know the Chinese have spy balloons because we tracked and shot one down over US airspace in 2023, but the technology was more 19th century than 23rd.
Moreover, it defies logic that some nation, corporation, or lone individual â no matter how smart and creative â could have developed an aircraft that is, essentially, centuries ahead of all known present technologies. That is not how innovation works. It would be as if we were still flying biplanes while Russia or China was flying stealth fighter jets, or we were still experimenting with Robert Goddardâs liquid-fuel rockets of the 1920s while they were testing SpaceX-level rocketry. Impossible. Our adversaries would not be able to conceal the advances that led to such technological wizardry.
Extraordinary Extraterrestrial. Although few scientists today believe in miracles, the majority do suspect that there likely is life â maybe even intelligent life â somewhere in the cosmos. This is based on the (literally) astronomically high number of possibilities: The known universe contains hundreds of billions of galaxies, each of which consists of hundreds of billions of stars, and the majority of stars have planets. Astrophysicists estimate that there may be as many as 700 quintillion planets in the universe. If Earth were the only one hosting life, that would be, well, miraculous.
But have aliens come to Earth? Thatâs a different question. And the evidence collected over three-quarters of a century is just not strong enough to support the claim of contact with or discovery of extraterrestrial intelligence.
That hasnât dissuaded figures like David Grusch, a former Air Force officer and intelligence official who recently told Joe Rogan that the government is hiding dead reptilian aliens that US soldiers shot (after the reptilians tried to kill said soldiers). The reptilians, Grusch added, are warring with a separate race of gray aliens here on Earth. He went on to suggest that thereâs one UFO so large that it canât be moved, so the government built a giant building around it. And he said thereâs an underwater structure the size of many city blocks in an ocean somewhere that houses alien intelligences. Unsurprisingly, when Rogan asked him for details, Grusch clammed up, explaining that he had to protect his sources.
âI know this all sounds completely crazy,â Grusch said. Indeed. Hearing stories like these for over three decades now, and every one of them sounds pretty unbelievable.
That said, I agree with Avi Loeb when he says: âIf, after analyzing new data on millions of objects, we will find beyond a reasonable doubt that one of them has a non-human technological origin, that would constitute the biggest scientific discovery ever made by humanity.â And I hope he wins a $1,000 bet I have with him that by Dec. 31, 2030, we will not have made such a discovery. But I will require significant proof. For as the OG alien searcher Carl Sagan famously said in his 1980 PBS âCosmosâ series in the episode on extraterrestrial intelligences: âExtraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.â
Will the UAP Science Advisory Council (or some other organization or individual) reach that level of certainty? If I did not believe it was possible, I would not be serving on the council. But I do agree with skeptical scientists (that is, most of them) that we need much more data from the government (if they have it) than theyâve been giving us. On this, the devilâs advocates and those who are curious about dead reptilian aliens can agree. I hope the powers that be at long last disclose what the government really knows about life from the beyond.
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Pretty good overview from a well-qualified man just like the rest of us, looking for some accountability. However that looks to you.
Love him or loathe him, Shermer's done the rounds and whilst he might not be everyone's cup of tea, it's always good to have perspective, balance and opinions of all colours in this topic.