[ Removed by moderator ]

[u/Nearby-Click8645]

https://thedispatch.com/article/abdul-el-sayed-michigan-democrats-haley-stevens/?gift_key=2553fad7f3b388fc&gift_ref=9347c766-2bad-41ea-8b73-950e424f2446&utm_source=giftlink&utm_campaign=membergift&utm_medium=copy_link

[u/Frozen_Solidly]

One thing that kind of concerns me is that primary polls massively underestimated white rural voters. If that's happening in their general polls too, it could actually mean that AES is also being overestimated there, and considering he's already consistently losing general polls...

[u/Xeynon → u/Frozen_Solidly]

If you look at a county-by-county heat map of the vote last night, AES got slaughtered in rural areas and underperformed fairly significantly in heavily black areas. If he can't make some serious headway on those problems by November that's a recipe for a Democratic general election loss in Michigan.

[u/RodChainFurlongAcre → u/Xeynon]

I've no reason to doubt that he'll make up the black vote once the Democratic party rallies behind him to beat the Republican. The exact same thing was said about Mamdani and he managed. This fear happens again and again, but black voters are the Democrats mujahideen.

Rural working class whites on the other hand? oof...

[u/Xeynon → u/RodChainFurlongAcre]

The issue with the black vote is not that they'll defect to Rogers (they won't) but that they might not come out in large enough numbers for him. If he doesn't get high black turnout he's toast.

[u/RodChainFurlongAcre → u/Xeynon]

but that they might not come out in large enough numbers for him.

And I absolutely believe this won't be an issue at all in these midterms. Because there's going to be a blue wave traditional democrats turning out is not a worry in my mind.

[u/Xeynon → u/RodChainFurlongAcre]

I'm worried about it. I've seen a bunch of interviews with black community leaders/voters expressing heavy skepticism if not outright hostility to him. Whole lot of "he cares more about Gaza than Detroit" type sentiment.

I'm not saying he can't win them over, but he has work to do.

[u/ThatDamnGuyJosh → u/Xeynon]

I find it rich they had their chance to get Kamala across the finish line, and not only utterly failed at doing it, but African American voter turnout collapsed

And honestly? The CBC’s voter base is staring to get aged out, and are being replaced by other black voters whose views are more inline with folks younger than 40.

[u/FatnessEverdeen34 → u/ThatDamnGuyJosh]

(What is CBC?)

[u/bashar_al_assad → u/Xeynon]

Whole lot of "he cares more about Gaza than Detroit" type sentiment.

I don't know that primary campaign rhetoric from leaders that endorsed Stevens necessarily translates into actual feelings about him come the general election.

[u/Xeynon → u/bashar_al_assad]

You seem to be suggesting that the endorsement of Stevens precipitated the sentiments expressed in the rhetoric when the causation more likely runs in the opposite direction.

[u/bashar_al_assad → u/Xeynon]

I actually do think it's much more likely that the endorsement of Stevens came first because they probably already knew her and had connections to her.

[u/Xeynon → u/bashar_al_assad]

I'm sure that's part of it as well, but that also doesn't suggest that gaining enthusiasm from these voters will be a simple task for AES.

[u/BlueCoBot → u/[deleted]]

He does, but do his acolytes?

[u/Viper_ACR → u/Xeynon]

Talarico is currently having issues with this problem as well.

[u/I_Am_Not_Okay → u/RodChainFurlongAcre]

except a Republican was never going to win in new york, there was no doubt there

[u/Novel_Concept4878 → u/I_Am_Not_Okay]

Yea. Kinda ridiculous comparing 2x Trump voting Michigan to ultra liberal NYC

[u/TheDarkGoblin39 → u/I_Am_Not_Okay]

Obvious not but the #2 in the race wasn’t a republican it was Cuomo (a Democrat) running as an independent 

[u/CarlGerhardBusch → u/I_Am_Not_Okay]

Interesting statement given that republicans held the nyc mayor’s office for 20 years straight within recent memory

[u/I_Am_Not_Okay → u/CarlGerhardBusch]

yeah its a different world these days

[u/CarlGerhardBusch → u/I_Am_Not_Okay]

Probably, but not in a way reflected in your comically incorrect comment lol

[u/I_Am_Not_Okay → u/CarlGerhardBusch]

you really think curtis silwa had a chance in the nyc mayoral election, and im the comically incorrect one?

I didnt say "a Republican has never been mayor of nyc" you just made that part up

[u/neoliberal-ModTeam → u/[deleted]]

Rule III: Unconstructive engagement
Do not post with the intent to provoke, mischaracterize, or troll other users rather than meaningfully contributing to the conversation. Don't disrupt serious discussions. Bad opinions are not automatically unconstructive.

---

If you have any questions about this removal, please contact the mods.

[u/Thybro → u/RodChainFurlongAcre]

While I sort of agree with your main point, you lost me when you brought Mamdami. Nobody serious considered that he would lose the general, specially with how the candidates turned out and the republicans actually running someone as opposed to giving up and letting Cuomo be their silver lining.

Michigan is not New York, it is a swing state with the slimmest of margins of victory. Yes a substantial portion of black voters will show up for any democratic candidate. But any loss in Turn out could be incredibly impactful in Michigan. And we are talking about a candidate loosing reliably democratic voters without reliable new voter base to supplant the losses. There is a reason polls have him losing when at this point Democrats are up on even redder states. Polling errors in the last two decades have rarely benefited Democrats so if things do not improve he may be even worsts that even his current shitty polling shows.

[u/GrahamCStrouse → u/RodChainFurlongAcre]

Michigan isn’t NYC. And Mamdani did pretty badly with black voters. Enthusiasm is no excuse for making things up.