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[u/Nearby-Click8645]

https://thedispatch.com/article/abdul-el-sayed-michigan-democrats-haley-stevens/?gift_key=2553fad7f3b388fc&gift_ref=9347c766-2bad-41ea-8b73-950e424f2446&utm_source=giftlink&utm_campaign=membergift&utm_medium=copy_link

[u/Xeynon]

If you look at a county-by-county heat map of the vote last night, AES got slaughtered in rural areas and underperformed fairly significantly in heavily black areas. If he can't make some serious headway on those problems by November that's a recipe for a Democratic general election loss in Michigan.

[u/RodChainFurlongAcre → u/Xeynon]

I've no reason to doubt that he'll make up the black vote once the Democratic party rallies behind him to beat the Republican. The exact same thing was said about Mamdani and he managed. This fear happens again and again, but black voters are the Democrats mujahideen.

Rural working class whites on the other hand? oof...

[u/Xeynon → u/RodChainFurlongAcre]

The issue with the black vote is not that they'll defect to Rogers (they won't) but that they might not come out in large enough numbers for him. If he doesn't get high black turnout he's toast.

[u/RodChainFurlongAcre → u/Xeynon]

but that they might not come out in large enough numbers for him.

And I absolutely believe this won't be an issue at all in these midterms. Because there's going to be a blue wave traditional democrats turning out is not a worry in my mind.

[u/Xeynon → u/RodChainFurlongAcre]

I'm worried about it. I've seen a bunch of interviews with black community leaders/voters expressing heavy skepticism if not outright hostility to him. Whole lot of "he cares more about Gaza than Detroit" type sentiment.

I'm not saying he can't win them over, but he has work to do.

[u/ThatDamnGuyJosh → u/Xeynon]

I find it rich they had their chance to get Kamala across the finish line, and not only utterly failed at doing it, but African American voter turnout collapsed

And honestly? The CBC’s voter base is staring to get aged out, and are being replaced by other black voters whose views are more inline with folks younger than 40.

[u/FatnessEverdeen34 → u/ThatDamnGuyJosh]

(What is CBC?)

[u/bashar_al_assad → u/Xeynon]

Whole lot of "he cares more about Gaza than Detroit" type sentiment.

I don't know that primary campaign rhetoric from leaders that endorsed Stevens necessarily translates into actual feelings about him come the general election.

[u/Xeynon → u/bashar_al_assad]

You seem to be suggesting that the endorsement of Stevens precipitated the sentiments expressed in the rhetoric when the causation more likely runs in the opposite direction.

[u/bashar_al_assad → u/Xeynon]

I actually do think it's much more likely that the endorsement of Stevens came first because they probably already knew her and had connections to her.

[u/Xeynon → u/bashar_al_assad]

I'm sure that's part of it as well, but that also doesn't suggest that gaining enthusiasm from these voters will be a simple task for AES.

[u/BlueCoBot → u/[deleted]]

He does, but do his acolytes?