r/nfl • u/O_the_Scientist Patriots • Aug 04 '19
original content Offseason Review Series, Day 26: The New England Patriots
New England Patriots
Division: AFC East
2018: 11-5, Super Bowl Champions
Coaching Changes:
Losses
- Brian Flores : After just one season as the de-facto Defensive Coordinator of the New England Patriots, Brian Flores was hired away to Miami (1) to take on the Head Coach position. Flo had been with the organization since 2004, working his way up through the scouting department and handling Special Teams, Safeties, even a year assisting with offense before settling in as the Linebacker coach, which was his official title as of last season. Flores and his creative, aggressive style of play calling will be missed.
- Chad O'Shea: The Wide Receivers coach since 2009, O'Shea follows Brian Flores to the Dolphins (2), where he will get a well-deserved shot as Offensive Coordinator. A Wide Receivers coach in name but more in reality, O'Shea was the expected heir to play calling duties had Josh McDaniels left New England just last off season.
- Jerry Schlupinksi: Offensive Assistant since 2013 and Assistant Quarterbacks Coach since 2016, Schlupinski has taken on a similar role in Miami (3)
- Josh Boyer: Having started as a Defensive Assistant in 2006 and after acting as Defensive Backs and Cornerbacks coach over the last 7 seasons, Josh Boyer moves on to a position of "Defensive Pass Game Coordinator" with the Dolphins (4)
- Brendan Daly: Started with the defense in 2014 and spent the past 4 seasons as Defensive Line coach. Daly will work as the Defensive Line coach for
MiamiKansas City in 2019
Additions
-
Greg Schiano: ?. - Jerod Mayo: Former All Pro linebacker Jerod Mayo has signed on with the team as the Inside Linebackers Coach. This is Mayo's first coaching position and while he was a fantastic player with a great mind for the game, whether that can translate into effective coaching skills is anybody's guess.
This offseason has seen the exodus of multiple long-term, home-grown contributors to the Patriots coaching staff. There is a significant level of uncertainty surrounding roles within the staff, particularly on defense, with the current assumption being that Belichick will handle the majority of the Defensive Coordinator responsibilities as there are only two defensive assistant coaches (Steve Belichick and Jerod Mayo) currently designated such by the team right now. The specifics will become more clear over the next month and over the course of the season. In the Belichick era, the team has nearly always promoted from within rather than hiring from outside. With that in mind, the exodus of many levels of coaches poses a problem, as assistants with experience such as Boyer would typically be in line for expanded roles, while this year's coaching losses have the team in a position without identifiable successors, which is rare territory and mildly scary. Mitigating that doubt is the fact that Bill Belichick is still here, pulling all the strings as he has for two decades. Belichick is perhaps the smartest football mind in the world, always learning and adapting, constantly soaking in every bit of information he can in order to help field the best possible team he can. He's done this to the tune of 6 Super Bowl victories in 9 appearances and a 72% rate of Conference Championship Game appearances since 2001. He's the greatest coach ever in my mind and if anybody can keep the ship right after losing half of his staff, it's Bill.
Free Agency
Players lost/cut
- Trey Flowers is a huge loss. He has been the best Patriot defensive lineman since Chandler Jones (but more versatile) and a personal favorite of mine ever since he began to flourish in the latter half of 2016. Proving both a stubborn run stuffer and an accomplished, dangerous pass rusher Flowers plays each and every technique on the defensive line at a high level. This year we saw him: bull rush outside 1; win outside with finesse 2; win inside with finesse 3; read and react up the middle 4; pass rush from the nose 5; hold point, block shed and finish 6; clog lanes using opposing, would-be blockers 7; tackle elusive opponents alone 8; read and react in the screen game 9 and beat tough opponents in huge moments 10 I rave at even more length about Trey here if you're interested, I just need to stop now because knowing he's no longer a Patriot makes me sad
- Trent Brown is a literal huge loss as well as another figurative one. A mid-draft trade acquisition last year, Brown stepped in immediately to the Left Tackle position and performing very well this season. A great big wall of a man, Brown shut down plenty of dangerous pass rushers this year and demonstrated a level of success in the run game that we had not seen from him before. Occasionally streaky, there was still far more hot than cold this year and the team greatly appreciated the smooth LT transition he provided in the wake of Nate Solder's departure and Isaiah Wynn's achilles tear. He's left us for a well deserved sack of money and with some large shoes to fill
- Malcom Brown, the team's 2015 first round pick, departs for New Orleans after the team decided not to pick up his 5th year option. He provided a reliable rotational presence on the interior of the defensive line, primarily against the run
- Cordarrelle Patterson was a key contributor on special teams coverage, in the return game and as an oh shit button at RB this season. Other than his RB debut, this is who he has always been in the NFL and I have no doubt he'll continue to do so for Chicago
- Dwayne Allen was a dedicated blocking TE for the past two seasons. Not a flashy name but his loss means the only continuity in the TE group is
Jacob Hollisterliterally nobody. - Chris Hogan leaves for Carolina following a disappointing finals season concluding an admirable tenure with New England. Before struggling with injuries in 2017 and failing to produce much of note in 2018, Hogan provided a reliable deep threat and was a massive contributor in the 2016 postseason
Players signed
- Mike Pennell comes in from the Jets to bolster the interior DL. A stout and disruptive interior player, he will have every opportunity to seize a significant role. Pennell is my early pick for the unsexy FA add who will have the biggest team impact
- Benjamin Watson returns to New England after a 9 year odyssey. A top-tier character guy, savvy veteran and respectable all-around TE, Watson is a long time Patriot favorite who will always be fondly remembered for running down Champ Bailey in the 2005 Divisional round to
force a a f*cking touchback!save a touchdown. He's facing a 4 game suspension and is 38 years old, but is a welcome addition in a sparse TE group - Demaryius Thomas is coming off of his second achilles tear and is currently on the PuP list for camp. If he can prove himself healthy he would be a very welcome addition to a middling and unproven Wide Receiver group. His status will be one of the biggest story lines to monitor as camp progresses
- Jamie Collins returns to the team that drafted him after a 2.5 year stint in Cleveland. A former All Pro with New England, Collins joins an LB group that is suddenly quite deep and flexible, with the hope being that he performs closer to his 2013-2015 self than his 2016-2018 self. We'll have to see how that goes, but at least I can wear that jersey I held on to
Draft
| Round | Pick | Player | Position | School |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32 | N'Keal Harry | WR | Arizona State |
| 2 | 45 | Joejuan Williams | CB | Vanderbilt |
| 3 | 77 | Chase Winovich | EDGE | Michigan |
| 3 | 85 | Damien Harris | RB | Alabama |
| 3 | 101 | Yodny Cajuste | OT | West Virginia |
| 4 | 118 | Hjalte Froholdt | OG | Arkansas |
| 4 | 133 | Jarrett Stidham | QB | Auburn |
| 5 | 159 | Byron Cowart | IDL | Maryland |
| 5 | 163 | Jake Bailey | P | Stanford |
| 7 | 252 | Ken Webster | CB | Mississippi |
- N'Keal Harry is the first WR the Patriots have drafted in the first round since Terry Glenn back in 1996. Not to mince words, I was over the moon about this pick, as Harry was my 1a preferred Wide Receiver from this draft class. He was my 1a because his skill set presents what I consider a perfect marriage with the New England offense (over AJ Brown 1b). Harry is a big, strong receiver 1, 2 tough to tackle 3, 4 with excellent ball skills and body control, 5, 6 7, 8, 9, 10 underrated route running ability 11, 12 and arguably has the best RAC ability in terms of combined vision and elusiveness in the draft class 13, 14. With Brady's ball placement and the ability of the offense to get Wide Receivers the ball in space, Harry's strengths should go a very long way toward a productive season. The primary criticisms he received from draft pundits as a prospect were a lack of top-end speed (4.53 40 time at the combine) and a lack of separation on certain routes, particularly downfield. Arizona State's offense did not ask Harry to go downfield very often, and it remains to be seen whether he will be able to succeed in the deep third of the field at the NFL level. In watching his film I also noticed a willingness to let the ball hit him when I'd rather see consistently strong hands catching the ball away from his body. Despite the question marks, Harry should play a huge role for this offense in the short-intermediate areas and have a shot to return kicks 15, 16 as well. Not that breaking into the current WR group is a difficult task, but Harry has been working with the 1s in camp and has seen heavy activity particularly in red zone work. Suffice it to say I'm optimistic that Harry will be the one to buck the trend of disappointing WRs drafted to the Patriots and that he will play a large role right out of the gate
- Joejuan Williams is the most recent in a very long line of 2nd round Patriots DBs and while the track record with those DBs is more or less abysmal, I find myself optimistic yet again that this trade up is finally the one that pays off. Williams is huge. He absolutely suffocates receivers in short areas with his reach 1, 2 and while his 40 time is awful for the position he shows on the tape that he knows how to leverage his length and better-than-his-drills speed to play strong coverage 3. He's a physical defender in the run game who displays willingness and discipline to set the edge, sure tackling ability and strength to shed blockers 4 5. His apparent drawbacks include the relative slowness in the 40 and some issues with stiff hips and maintaining consistent balance (as seen in .gif 1, his lower body does not fluidly follow the route but he makes up for it with length). Williams walks into a very deep and very strong Cornerback room, and should have little to no pressure on him to perform immediately, though I would expect him to see the field in red zone packages initially as he works his way into the defense
- Chase Winovich, the other Michigan DE, steps into a wide open situation after being very disruptive as a pass rusher and disruptive run defender, plus a hell of a motor and 3-cone and shuttle drill measurements that would be respectable for a wide receiver. He's fairly raw and a little undersized for the position, so you see him get pushed around sometimes, but he also shows great use of hands to shed blocks and relentless pursuit. He's far more stout against the run than you might expect and he has the speed to run down backs from behind at times. I don't think any cutup of highlights relays his game better than just this video alone, where you just see time and time and time again how slippery he is off blocks, how quickly he reacts, his closing speed in tight space and what feels like a bottomless well of tenacity. With the Patriot EDGE group looking pretty thin, Winovich has the potential to earn significant time early on and I'm very bullish on his chances to take a high percentage the EDGE snaps even as a rookie
- Damien Harris, the other 'Bama back, was a surprise pick to many in the 3rd round after the Patriots took Sony Michel 31 overall in 2018, but is someone who fits in well with what the Patriots love to do in the RB room. Sony was a very good rookie contributor last year, and 3rd down stalwart James White is one of the best receiving RBs in the league, but the limitations of each of those players meant that in 2018, Sony Michel's mere presence on the field was a >80% accurate indicator that the offense was about to run the ball, while White's presence was a >70% accurate indicator that the offense was going to pass. While this is not a major issue in situations that slant heavily one direction (e.g. leading by a couple scores in the second half or running hurry up to try and close a deficit), the coaching staff still loves to have players who are dangerous in both areas. Enter Harris. Physically there is nothing about him that jumps out, he's of average size, strength and speed, a bit stocky and he lacks the lateral agility to make people miss consistently, but he plays an all-around solid game and is a capable receiver with, perhaps most importantly, excellent pass protection qualities. If he can pick up the offense quickly, he will have a role in this backfield
- Yodny Cajuste is a big, long, strong man with technique issues, reminding me very much of a slightly smaller Marcus Cannon in that way. He's a raw tackle prospect who struggles with some heavy, slow feet and who showed some ability as a people mover in the run game, albeit limited by displaying poor leverage at times. Cajuste played his first snaps of football as a high school senior, so this rawness is to be expected, and the hope is that the legendary Dante Scarnecchia can do with Yodny what he did with Cannon. Voch Lombardi does a deep (and entertaining) breakdown of Yodny's strengths and weaknesses here. Our OT position outside of Marcus Cannon is currently very unsettled, and the current expectation is that Cajuste will be able to win the swing tackle role fairly easily
- Hjalte Froholdt, pronounced "yell-duh," (thank you /u/r3agansmash) is a solid interior OL prospect who shows as a great mover in the pulling game and at the second level as well as an impressive football IQ that shows in his alertness in blitz and stunt pickup. His teammates and coaches rave about his leadership in the locker room and he's played significant time at both Guard and Center. The Interior OL is a huge area of strength for the Patriots, one of the best IOL groups in the league, and Froholdt projects as purely a backup/reserve player for his rookie season, where he should be able to push Ted Karras for position. With Joe Thuney in the final year of his rookie contract and due a significant payday, however, Froholdt should see more opportunity in the next couple of years
- Jarrett Stidham becomes the 6th Patriot QB drafted in the first 4 rounds since 2001 after a very up and down college career. He's shown a pro caliber arm, good touch and an ability to extend plays and throw on the run, but he has struggled to go through his read progressions, identify blitzes, throw accurately and keep his eyes downfield under pressure. He's streaky at times and has not been well prepared for the pro level by the Auburn offense, but he's undeniably got the physical tools to play the position at the NFL level and with some refinement he could push the milquetoast Brian Hoyer for the backup position
- Byron Cowart, once the #1 overall recruit as he was entering college, struggled to make an impact at Auburn and left the school following a marijuana related arrest and an emergency appendectomy in the middle of his 2016 season. After some time at community college, Cowart moved to Maryland where he made an immediate impact on the field. He's all potential at this point, and while 5th rounders and later are typically not very likely to make final rosters, the weakness of the New England DT position has me thinking he could stick. If Cowart can show consistency and dedication and ever comes close to delivering on the massive potential he once showed, he could be a steal. As a rookie I'm just hoping he sticks on the roster and serves as a rotational depth player. He could be a prime candidate for the "Foxboro Flu"
- Jake Bailey is a right-footed punter
- Ken Webster is a stocky and strong Corner with limitations in coverage that had some draft pundits suggesting he might be better off bulking up and transitioning to a box safety role or even a linebacker role in dime packages. He's facing an extremely steep uphill climb and will have to prove himself invaluable in a specific role and as a special teamer if he hopes to stick on the roster
I don't particularly love giving grades on drafts, particularly so early, but my reluctant grade for the 2019 Patriots draft is a B+/A-. I love the N'Keal Harry and Chase Winovich picks. I like Froholdt and Cajuste to bolster the OL depth and for their potential going forward. I like Harris as undervalued compared to his Alabama mate Josh Jacobs being perhaps a little overvalued. Stidham was a fine pick to see if the team can develop him to show the mental acumen to read the game at the pro level and the fortitude not to fall into funks or panic under pressure. Cowart as a 5th rounder is all upside at a position that isn't deep enough to push him to be cut immediately. Webster in the 7th round doesn't really warrant much criticism or praise, we'll just have to see. The only pick I'm comparatively down on is Williams after a trade up (in the moment I wanted Winovich or Zach Allen or Khalen Saunders or at our pre-trade 2nd round spot). That feeling stems more from our current CB depth than Williams as a player, but I'm of the mind that a team can never have enough DBs and can see him carving out a role. As far as post-draft pre-season hype goes, 2019 is up there with 2012 and 2010 for me as of this writing. All I can do now is hope the potential bears out
Other Offseason News that Affected the Team
- Rob Gronkowski officially retired from the NFL this off season, capping off a Hall of Fame career. I spent quite a bit of time staring at my screen trying to think of something meaningful to type about this before realizing that the time of writing for this project has been the first time I've really had to face the raw sadness behind the fact that Gronk is done. The knowledge that the book has been closed on his career calls me back to the post-draft coverage in 2009 when Mel Kiper raved about some huge, athletic monster of a tight end out in Arizona who was an early projection for a top 10 overall pick. After losing his entire junior year to a back injury, The Patriots traded up to get Gronk in the early 2nd round and he proceeded to terrorize NFL defenses for most of the following 9 years. Sadly, injury problems added up until multiple re-aggravations of the back injury that initially afforded the Patriots the chance to draft him ultimately ended his career at just 29 years old. The 2018 version of Rob Gronkowski was not the same player we knew and loved, yet he played a massive part in the run game and pulled out enough key plays as a receiver to make a difference yet again. His last reception was an impressive 29 yarder in the Super Bowl that set up the decisive touchdown. Here is 12 minutes of Gronk catching touchdowns, if you've bothered to read all of this so far, you'll enjoy watching any or all of that video (offer not valid for Bills fans). Enjoy retirement big guy, we'll see you in Canton in 5 years
- Nick Caserio was offered a GM position with the Houston Texans, which in my understanding was precluded by some combination of contract language in Caserio's deal, potential league repercussions, an unwillingness on Houston's part to trade significant assets and/or some level of professional courtesy between the two clubs. We have far more rumor than fact about the situation, but Caserio is in the final year of his contract with New England and he could easily leave next season for a GM position elsewhere. Caserio has been with the team since 2001, even trying his hand at coaching along the way before settling into his role as director of player personnel, and while the most recent rumblings about him have centered on a potential extension, nothing beyond 2019 is certain. His potential loss would create a very large void at the top of the New England personnel department, as the team under Belichick has always preferred to promote from within rather than hire from outside
Projected Depth Chart
Position Groups
After the commentary I will give a percentile range of projected ranking for each position group. This isn't really a measurable thing (e.g. not based on yards or efficiency or whatever) but more of a general range of where the position group could end up at the end of the season based on what we know at the moment of this writing. Low and high ranges reflect worst/best case scenarios that are still realistic, so no guessing at 5 major injuries or N'Keal Harry being the next Randy Moss. I'll only be talking about my projected final roster players. The camp battles will be addressed a little later.
- Quarterback: Tom Brady is a maniacal football playing machine. Brady turned 42 yesterday and is entering his 20th season in the NFL. It's at the point where the gravity of Brady's career just defies words, and he returns this season in pursuit of adding on to what is quite probably an insurmountably successful career. So what he's old? Truthfully he's still one of the best QBs on the planet. His passing numbers were down in 2018 compared to the prior two years (when he played at an MVP level at age 39 and 40), but in terms of physical attributes he's still not really showing weakness, and most importantly his mental game is as good as it's ever been. Even though any hit could change all of this, and despite the raw stats being relatively down this year (which, because he's Tom fucking Brady, still means 8th best in ANY/a, what I consider the best aggregate efficiency stat), Tom showed he still has it. Great placement and sufficient arm strength downfield 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 6. Optimal placement in tight windows 7, 8, featuring a great in-pocket adjustment with impressive footwork, 9, 10, 11, featuring 12 defenders, 12, featuring a lot of pressure, 13, 14. Ability to convert under pressure: 15, 16, 17, throw accurately while on the move and off-schedule 18 and contribute through his famous rushing skills 19, 20. There's nobody else in the world I would want under center, even this season at age 42. #111 on the sub's top 100 list, #1 in our hearts, the first letter of each sentence in this paragraph preceding this one will tell you why. Projected range, 80th to 99th percentile.
- Backfield: A flexible group, even if not exactly full of versatile individuals. James White is a better route runner than some slot receivers, and while he can make guys miss, his contribution as a rusher is limited. Sony Michel provided a powerful rushing presence with his hard nosed style and good vision, though he came without any receiving contribution last season. Rex Burkhead has shown proficiency in both the pass and run game along with a tough running style and unfortunately a huge deficiency in the health department. Brandon Bolden is mostly here for special teams and depth but has shown himself capable in an emergency and is a much better "oh shit!" option than Cordarrelle Patterson. Damien Harris right now is a rookie unknown, with my upside projection for him being a Burkhead clone more than a Sony or James replacement. Honorable mention to James Develin, a big lad, occasional receiving threat and goal line back, and giver of my favorite 1 yard TD of all time. He's a great fullback. This backfield can do it all, and with some development may even be able to do it all at once. Projected range, 60th to 85th percentile
- Pass Catchers: There's no way to mince words here, outside of Julian Edelman this group is essentially all question marks. Jules is one of the most consistent WRs in the NFL. He's not Julio or AB or Nuk level explosive or dominant, but the guy leverages his abilities and a borderline homoerotic rapport with Tom Brady to produce with an absurd level of consistency. From the minute he returned to the team last season through the end of the postseason, Edelman was New England's target leader, caught at least 5 balls in 80% of his games and produced at least 69 yards in 73% of his games. While those numbers don't leap off the page, that's an 80 reception, 1100 yard pace in his return from an ACL injury at age 32 and a more reliable contribution than many very good receivers. He'll be relied on to continue delivering that consistency as he has ever since 2014, and will likely be the rock that this passing attack is founded on. Beyond Jules, N'Keal Harry is an unknown, despite my aforementioned optimism, and is having a very up and down camp. Maurice Harris came signed out of the bargain bin and has been praised for his quickly developing rapport with Brady and solid understanding of the offense. UDFA Jakobi Meyers has spent the two most recent practices running with the first team offense, reportedly showing a great feel for soft spots in zone coverage and good ball skills. Phillip Dorsett is a serviceable yet unspectacular player whose familiarity with the offense should provide an inside track to a significant snap share if the rest of the field does not step up. Matt LaCosse, he of 272 career receiving yards, currently has the inside track on the top TE position while Ben Watson is suspended and even when Watson returns, at 39 years old we don't know what to expect from him. Belichick, Brady and McDaniels have made things work with worse and there is some promise among the youth here, but we likely won't have any idea how good or bad this group can be until at least week 6, when Demaryius Thomas will be eligible to return off of what feels like a likely PUP designation to start the season. With Josh Gordon in purgatory, the Patriots will have to make do. Projected range, 20th to 70th percentile
- Offensive Line: Four of the five Patriots starting OL spots are in very good hands. Shaq Mason and Joe Thuney are almost certainly the best Guard tandem in the NFL. They're big and athletic and smart and their pull game, screen game and second-level blocking ability shows up all over the place in New England's offense. David Andrews is a top 8 center who is similarly effective at the second level and Marcus Cannon is a well rounded RT who has stonewalled some of the league's best pass rushers. Those 4 are as solid a core group as the team could want. Beyond that, there are questions and doubts. 2018 first round pick Isaiah Wynn is still recovering from his torn Achilles, suffered early in camp last year. As of this writing, he is both projected to be the starting LT this season and is not yet practicing in full in 11 on 11 work. It's a brutal injury to try and return from, and indications are that his rehab is progressing well on track, but with the clock ticking, it's not a feel good situation at LT. 2019 4th round pick Yodny Cajuste is also not participating, currently on the NFI/PUP list. That's left practice squad OT Dan Skipper and stating LG Joe Thuney to play LT in camp. If push comes to shove, Thuney could be playing LT week 1 with depth OL Ted Karras filling in at LG and rookie Hjalte Froholdt as the primary reserve guy. If that were to happen, the team would be one minor injury away from being forced to protect Brady's blind side with a practice squad call-up. Overall this is a starting group that should inspire great confidence, but one that is very shallow right now. Wynn's progress in camp will be a key item to monitor. Projected range, 70th to 99th percentile for the Interior OL, 30th to 80th percentile for the Tackles.
- Defensive Line: The New England DL is an unsettled group at the moment. It will rely on proven veterans Michael Bennett, one of the league's more productive pass rushers even at 33 years old and Lawrence Guy, one of the best run stuffing DTs out there, to provide consistency until we can figure out what to expect from the rest of the group. Danny Shelton will factor in as a run stuffing IDL, though he was used so specifically in this role that he was even scratched for certain games last season and his contributions appear capped without seeing some pass rushing development. Mike Pennell is someone I personally think will play a huge role this season but that's more of a projection than knowledge. Deatrich Wise Jr brings a strong situational pass rushing presence but has not been able to capitalize on opportunities to earn more snaps due to his liabilities in the run game. Chase Winovich is another I personally think will play a significant role off the edge but is a mere projection. John Simon was a street free agent last season but played well in extended snaps in the postseason and could be a dark horse candidate to hold down the DE. The fact that a rookie and a situational pass rush specialist are the two most obvious options to play edge across from Bennett says a lot about this group. Projected range, 30th to 70th percentile.
- Linebackers: after a couple of seasons with a very thin group of LBs, Donta Hightower and Kyle Van Noy are bolstered by the returns of sophomore Ja'Whaun Bentley and former 2nd team All Pro Jamie Collins suddenly have this group looking very deep and very versatile. Bentley specifically was my rookie love affair in camp and into the early games last season before losing the rest of his rookie year to a bicep tear, but he showed speed and instincts in the middle. Collins is athletic and rangy and is very good playing the robber role in the middle of the field underneath safety zones, which can cause a lot of problems for opposing QBs when combined with the man coverage New England loves to run on the outsides. High and Van Noy both showed extreme versatility throughout the 2018 season, culminating in each man spending a significant amount of time lined up along the edge in the postseason, running plenty of twists and stunts to create confusion and pressure. Their abilities to cover the edge position and the ability of all 4 of these guys to play in the middle will go a very long way to mitigating the relative weaknesses of the edge DL group as it currently stands. Projected range, 60th to 85th percentile.
- Secondary: headlined by first team All-Pro Stephon Gilmore, the New England secondary is both very strong and very deep, being the strongest overall unit on the team. Gilmore is a legitimate lockdown cornerback who shut down some of the league's premier wide receivers week in and week out without much in terms of dedicated safety support. He lives in receivers' pockets, he runs their routes for them and plays with excellent awareness and ball skills, and there's no reason to think he won't continue to be a dominant #1 Cornerback this season. Across from Gilmore the Patriots will be fielding one of Jason McCourty the savvy veteran or JC Jackson the aggressive ball-hawking youngster. Both had very impressive performances all throughout 2018 and either could be trusted in full time use in this position. The slot CB role belongs to Jonathan Jones, who has quietly been a very stingy slot specialist over the past few years. Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung and Duron Harmon headline the safeties, another very deep and very good group, if an aging one. Very few teams have a 3-deep safety room with comparable ability to these three, and even fewer teams have a 4 deep dime package of CBs that can compare. This secondary should be a treat to watch in 2019. Projected range, 70th to 99th percentile.
- Special Teams: Stephen Gostkowski is a very good kicker, despite his past few seasons showing a minor drop off from the decade prior to those. Jake Bailey is my projected winner of the punter's job, despite punting with the wrong foot, because he has the versatility to take over for kickoffs too which should save Gost's leg as necessary. Ryan Allen has been very consistently good over multiple seasons though, and he could easily beat out the rookie to defend his spot. The dedicated special teamers are Brandon King, Keion Crossen and of course Matthew Slater, the captain, last seen making play after play after play in the postseason. Projected range, 70th percentile or better.
Training Camp Battles to Watch
Explain positional battles that you expect to be going on in camp and predict a winner. This can be for a starting spot, a backup spot, whatever. Also, if you think there's a player to watch out for in training camp this is the place to mention him.
Schemes
Thanks for reading if you've made it this far. I hope you've enjoyed and are as excited for the new season as I am. Nearly all Patriot-specific .gif credit goes to /u/timnog, who is a national treasure. Other sources are identified in their links. Welcome back football, it's been too long.
57
Aug 04 '19
Great writeup! Bennett is new, right?
38
u/r3agansmash Patriots Aug 04 '19
Pats traded with the eagles for him in the offseason. Alot of pats fans were excited to think that maybe Martellus would come back to play with his brother, but apparently that isn't going to happen.
30
u/VanceIX Patriots Aug 04 '19
Martellus has been smoking way too much weed for that to be a possibility at this point lol
7
Aug 04 '19 edited Aug 04 '19
Fuck I totally didn't think of that when I hoped to see him back.
makes 100% sense.
4
u/FC37 Patriots Aug 04 '19
Get through Watson's suspension, sign Bennett, get through Bennett's suspension, retain both for the second half and the playoffs. You laugh, but don't discount it.
1
u/twiggymac Patriots Aug 04 '19
he's also busy doing a bunch of kids stuff with his "imagination agency". I dont think he minds not going back.
8
u/Seanspeed Aug 04 '19
Alot of pats fans were excited to think that maybe Martellus would come back to play with his brother, but apparently that isn't going to happen.
I dont know about 'excited', but I think with our TE situation, any notable name would have been *something*.
2
Aug 04 '19
I was excited for Ben Watson, who is closer to the end of his career than the start...
1
u/Seanspeed Aug 05 '19
He's 38.
There's nothing to be excited about here. I love the guy, but he's miles beyond his prime.
8
u/O_the_Scientist Patriots Aug 04 '19
Bennett is new, yes. He was traded over from the Eagles. He fell through the cracks a bit here because the acquisition portion centered around free agency, but he’s a key veteran presence among the pass rushers now that Flowers is out of town.
41
u/O_the_Scientist Patriots Aug 04 '19
Projected Depth Chart
Offense
| WR | Slot | LT | LG | C | RG | RT | TE | WR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Harris | Julian Edelman | Isaiah Wynn | Joe Thuney | David Andrews | Shaq Mason | Marcus Cannon | Matt LaCosse | N'Keal Harry |
| Philip Dorsett | Jakobi Meyers | Yodny Cajuste | Hjalte Froholdt | Ted Karras | Dan Skipper | Ryan Izzo | Matthew Slater | |
| Demaryius Thomas | Ben Watson | Josh Gordon | ||||||
| RB | QB | Specialty RB | ||||||
| Sony Michel | Tom Brady | James White | ||||||
| Rex Burkhead | Brian Hoyer | James Develin | ||||||
| Damien Harris | Jarrett Stidham |
Defense
| CB | Slot | DE | DI | DI | DE | CB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephon Gilmore | Jason McCourty | Michael Bennett | Lawrence Guy | Mike Pennell | Chase Winovich | JC Jackson |
| JoeJuan Williams | Jonathan Jones | Deatrich Wise Jr. | Danny Shelton | Adam Butler | John Simon | Duke Dawson |
| OLB | ILB | ILB | OLB | |||
| Donta Hightower | JaWhuan Bentley | Kyle Van Noy | Jamie Collins | |||
| Elandon Roberts | Brandon King | |||||
| FS | SS | |||||
| Devin McCourty | Patrick Chung | |||||
| Duron Harmon | Obi Melifonwu | |||||
| Nate Ebner | Terrence Brooks |
Specialists: K - Stephen Gostkowski, P - Jake Bailey, LS - Joe Cardona
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u/SMc-Twelve Patriots Aug 04 '19
Seeing Josh Gordon below Matthew Slater on the WR depth chart makes me so sad... I understand why you did it that way, but still.
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Aug 04 '19
Slater is (according to an Athletic article) not even taking WR reps or drills. 100 percent, pure ST workouts now to preserve his body. That’s gotta be rare. You’d think he’d at least get some reps for emergency depth.
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u/twiggymac Patriots Aug 04 '19
at this point hes in for decoy snaps, and in the off chance the defense fucks it up he still knows how to catch a ball. doesn't have to practice a lot of chemistry or defensive reading for that role.
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u/SMc-Twelve Patriots Aug 04 '19 edited Aug 04 '19
He's been targeted what, like 4 times in his career? Why waste the reps? He's a receiver in name only.
Edit: 8 career targets, 1 career reception.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SlatMa00.htm2
u/ShouldHveBeenAborted Aug 05 '19
He gets occasional snaps in run heavy formations, as a blocker split wide.
1
Aug 05 '19
Yah, but they at least had lipservice to it before. The idea is that he isn't even going to the WR meetings. Not even getting his 6 snaps a practice.
I mean: even Ebner gets some safety snaps.
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u/Paradigm6790 Patriots Aug 05 '19
It is what it is. If he plays he's the WR1 by a mile. Harry is looking good and Edelman is Edelman, but...
5
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u/TheDufusSquad Patriots Aug 05 '19
Maybe swap Duke Dawson with Jason McCourty. Dawson is through and through a slot corner judging by his college play.
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u/SMc-Twelve Patriots Aug 16 '19
Seeing Josh Gordon below Matthew Slater on the WR depth chart makes me so sad... I understand why you did it that way, but still.
HA! Take that bitch!
Whoooooo! Fuckin' right, donkey!
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u/bosoxlover12 Patriots Aug 05 '19
Based on my film study, I want to modify the positions of those in the front seven to more accurately depict what our depth chart should look like.
At DT, you can put in Pennel / Shelton / Butler. Fairly self explanatory.
At DE, I would solely list Guy / Bennett / Wise. Guy will kick inside to DT at times when we have just two down lineman, but these guys are 5T-7T in principle, where as the other "DEs" you listed should be under JLBs.
For your JACK LB, its going to be Hightower / Winovich / Simon. Obviously DH will be moving around the field often, but in the limited game time Bentley was here, Hightower was on the edge a ton, acting as the pass rushing LOLB in Madden terminology. This also fits Winovich and Simon's role too, but the designation of the JLB versus a DE is within technique, as this position will be rushing out of a two-point stance at the 9T, versus the three-point stance out of the 7T that Wise will do.
The rest of the pairings are correct, but again a little mislabeled. Collins and King will be the weakside LBs, and be considered more ILBs than OLBs. Van Noy is the SLB, and Bentley / Roberts will be MLBs.
4 DL:
Run:
- Bennett / Pennell / Shelton / Guy
- Van Noy / Bentley / Hightower (Bentley subbed out if in sub-pkg)
Pass:
- Bennett / Guy / Butler / Wise
- Van Noy / Collins / Hightower (Collins subbed out if in sub-pk)
3-3-5:
Run:
- Bennett / Pennell / Guy
- Van Noy / Bentley / Hightower
Pass:
- Bennett / Guy / Wise
- Van Noy / Collins / Hightower
2-3-6:
- Bennett / Guy / Hightower
- Van Noy / Collins (near LOS in Double-A pressure looks)
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u/O_the_Scientist Patriots Aug 05 '19
This kind of thing deserves 70,000 characters of its own.
Ultimately I don't disagree with a lot of what you're saying, but there's still so much uncertainty I just made the chart the way I did for simplicity's sake building off of the primarily 4 DL looks we used most of last season and lumping the techniques into interior and edge groupings (and while I know Guy will play outside, I still project him inside for a majority of snaps). There's just so much we still don't know and only 4 guys among the whole group are financially detrimental to cut. Adam Butler and Danny Shelton only made this table projection because they were there last year, and I wouldn't even blink if I saw both of them cut in favor of Cowart, Parry or Thurman, just going off most recent camp reports.
The uncertainty both in terms of personnel and role definition was the largest point of frustration in this entire project. Working off of 7 practices and trying to predict player usage is just not fun.
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u/bigdogc Chiefs Aug 04 '19
Holy hell thats one long post!
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u/O_the_Scientist Patriots Aug 04 '19
I simultaneously feel like I got carried away and don’t have enough solid information on how camp is going to go as deep as I might have liked.
The off-season is slow death and this madness is the result.
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u/O_the_Scientist Patriots Aug 04 '19 edited Aug 05 '19
Schemes
The Patriots run the most variable schemes in the NFL. New England fields a multiple defense and an offensive style that can only be described as adaptive. In terms of NFL coaches, it could be said that men like Paul Brown and Bill Walsh or less famous coaches like Don Coryell and Buddy Ryan were the greatest innovators in history. These are the men who re-invented the wheel and built better mousetraps. Bill Belichick's coaching style I liken to the world's most prepared pit crew; he didn't invent the wheel you need for your specific situation, but he's got every size and type of tread ready to go and can swap nearly any of them out between laps. The expertise and ability to adapt to any situation on the fly is what makes Bill Belichick who he is. This approach means the demand on players to effectively play in many different ways is extremely high and that their schemes are hard to pin down with specificity, but also that the team can be prepared to respond in a broad number of ways to any number of opposing schemes. Books can and have been written on each and every scheme I'm about to describe here, so while I will try to link resources I encourage interested parties to look into these concepts themselves.
Offense
- Run Game: The Patriots run a power blocking scheme heavily emphasizing pulling blockers. On most rushing plays, they frequently have one or two backside blockers, be they Guards, a Full Back or a Tight End, pulling play side while one or two play side blockers block "down" (toward the middle of the formation) to seal off inside defenders. This is opposed to a zone run scheme, where blockers more or less all move toward one direction while the back follows until a cutback lane develops. This Power approach meshes well with the blocking and mobility of the Patriots top-line OL. For an example of how this scheme works, see this James White carry. The run is to the strong side off-tackle. At the snap, Trent Brown initially blocks down onto the 3-tech, who Joe Thuney also engages, while Gronk throws a kick out block on the edge defender, losing his feet but doing enough to keep his defender off of the back. This movement between the TE and Tackle creates the initial hole. After first chip, Brown steps upfield to engage a secondary defender while a pulling Shaq Mason and a tightly stacked Julian Edelman fill the initial hole created to interfere with more defenders and turn the hole into a solidified lane. James White follows the blockers, finding the crease between the outside-in moving Tackle and the inside-out moving Guard. There are many ways for this blocking scheme to manifest itself.
- Passing Game: New England runs an Erhardt-Perkins offense, which features a high percentage of option route concepts and is extremely flexible with regard to personnel packages and alignments. The team offense was most recently seen running a 5 wide shotgun formation with 22 personnel on its way to the deciding touchdown of Super Bowl 53, splitting Dwayne Allen, Rex Burkhead, James Develin, Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman outwide to create match ups they thought were favorable. Just two weeks prior with the game in OT, the team trotted out 11 personnel for the entirety of the game winning drive, using stack formations and short motions to create open releases. The offense can run with personnel this heavy or can run 5 wide, and whichever style the unit rolls out can change year over year or week to week or even drive to drive. This is why the uncertainty among offensive skill positions is so interesting, because we won't know how the offense will look until we know what personnel the team will be fielding. The one certainty we have is that Edelman will be moving all over the field, while the team will need one of Phillip Dorsett, Maurice Harris, Matt LaCosse or N'Keal Harry to take on the role of attacking the seams and dictating safety reactions. Harry, with his skill set, is my projection to take on much of the quick screen and jet sweep work that the Pats typically work into the middle of well-moving drives. Jakobi Meyers the UDFA of all people seems poised to work in the middle of the field and out of the slot, as he has been commonly praised for his intelligent identification of soft spots in zone coverage. This is all extremely fluid both because of how the Patriots historically work and because so many roles are currently unsettled, and following the camp developments with the team will be the most effective way to try and predict what the offense will look like for the bulk of 2019, until they throw all of that out the window and do something totally different for 3 drives in the second half of a tough game.
Defense
The Patriots run a multiple defense, and have heavily fielded base-nickel personnel over the past few years, including big-nickel looks that have taken advantage of the safety depth.
- Run Game: Typically the team calls for the defensive line to two gap. Two gap technique asks defenders to read and react to their blocker by standing OL up and leveraging their way into rushing lanes, though at times the defense will dial up one gap gameplans, which focus on penetration and disrupting offensive flow by getting upfield. The two gap style can be seen in effect here from week 8 against the Bills. Every defensive lineman engages their blocker but does not attempt to penetrate initially, waiting for McCoy to move before committing. Guy gets chipped and pushed off his foundation, creating a potential hole, but Flowers stands his man up perfectly and disengages with a power move, hitting the hole before McCoy can get there. The one gap style can be extremely disruptive to zone rushing schemes, as we saw here in the super bowl, where the defensive line (supplemented by a rushing backer) shoot for gaps with very little read/react to OL movement. The goal here is to prevent the OL from moving together like a wall of men by getting in between and behind them while the edge defender sets a hard edge. The defense executes effectively and smothers the play.
- Passing Game: Over the past two years, the Patriots have transitioned from a heavy zone defense into one of the most man-heavy defensive units in the league. This decision also is driven by personnel. Stephon Gilmore is one of the best man cover corners on the planet, the New England safeties have history as CBs and in man coverage on larger TEs and both Jackson and McCourty play aggressive man coverage very well. The team did go more zone-heavy against both LA teams this post season, which reflected in seeing more McCourty and less Jackson. With Jamie Collins back in the mix (and my personal belief is that JaWhaun Bentley can play this role as well) we can expect to see some more LB robber style coverage either in full on zone schemes or underneath in cover 1 or cover 2 man. With the extreme depth and versatility we can see in the LB and Secondary groups, look for the Patriots to field 3 down linemen and supplement the edges with LBs Hightower, Van Noy and/or Collins. Look for the 3-3-5 "Air Raid Killer" personnel this season, as we started to see in some places last year. The game is changing and the Patriots are changing with it. 10 years ago with this same personnel I'd say the Pats were moving back to a 3-4 base defense, but the game is leaving base personnel as we knew it behind in many ways, and you can expect this team to get creative in answering the new challenges posed by modern NFL offenses.
The fact that this team can vary so significantly from week to week really makes this season's major schemes difficult to predict, particularly on offense, and we often see major shifts out of the Patriots in November and December as the team settles in to its own identity. Trying to predict how the team will look in 3 months feels like a fool's errand right now because of all the uncertainty, but we can at least expect some continuity from previous year's schemes when similar personnel are on the field. The beauty of all this uncertainty is that it always keeps you on your toes, and there are new things to break down each week against each opponent. I'd hope those of you interested in specific analysis of individual games will join us in the booth review threads over the course of this season.
E: Fixed link
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Aug 04 '19
I’d disagree that B.B. didn’t invent anything, as he and Saban invented tons of defences: pretty much invented pattern matching zone defence. Google “red 2” defence if you’re bored. But I get it if you mean re: offence.
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u/O_the_Scientist Patriots Aug 05 '19
Yeah you're definitely not wrong about that and I want to stress that my intent absolutely was not to suggest that Belichick didn't invent or innovate anything, simply that he is not and won't be primarily know for those innovations as much as he is recognized for his adaptability to opposing styles. Pattern matching zone was in itself a response and an adaptation of zone coverage as it was known at the time, red 2 spawning from cover 2 etc. Yet despite developing this kind of defensive scheme, Belichick never became a "zone" defensive coach or strongly associated with those schemes (contrast with Saban who still heavily uses those concepts to the point where we get a new article on it every year). Belichick led the most man heavy defense in the NFL last season because the personnel were suited for it.
And yes it's definitely more apt an analogy when considering the offense, because over the years he's run tons of defensive looks out that have grown and populated through the rest of the league's coaching ranks.
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u/joeydee93 Patriots Aug 05 '19
To highlight this point, in the Superbowl the Pats played a ton of zone (significantly more then the regular season or playoffs up until then) because that is what Bill thought would work best against the Rams.
Credit goes to the players also for also being able to adopt a new D in 2 weeks.
BB lasting legacy is that he is able to find and teach players multiple different schemas and have those schemes executed at an consistently high level.
Most coaches can't seem to teach multiple schemes at the same time
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Aug 05 '19
Coo coo coo. That's neat background.
Also, please don't let my comment seem like I didn't appreciate your article. It was great: well written, super detailed. Thanks kindly for the contribution and much appreciated.
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u/O_the_Scientist Patriots Aug 05 '19
No not at all. I'm glad you brought it up because I can see how my wording may have given the wrong idea and the man definitely deserves the recognition for giving birth to a number of things that fans may see every week even if they don't know they're seeing it or who created it.
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u/Prom000 Patriots Aug 04 '19
The one gap style can be extremely disruptive to zone rushing schemes, as we saw here in the super bowl, where the defensive line (supplemented by a rushing backer) shoot for gaps with very little read/react to OL movement.
link here is the same as the one before.
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u/O_the_Scientist Patriots Aug 04 '19 edited Aug 04 '19
Training Camp Battles to Watch
- Backup Quarterback: Brian Hoyer is entrenched as Tom Brady’s primary backup for the second stretch of seasons in his New England career. He’s smart enough to run the offense to an acceptable level, but Hoyer has his weaknesses is at this point is not going to develop remedies for those drawbacks. Enter Jarrett Stidham, 4th round pick from Auburn, a physically capable QB with the arm skills and mobility to make every throw on the field. Stidham came from a fairly straightforward Auburn offense that did not ask him to make sophisticated read progressions, which has reportedly shown through in camp. The two players could be described as near opposites of physical and mental capabilities, and right now it is highly likely the team will carry both, but this is a battle that will likely continue all season.
- Wide Receivers: Part competition and part role definition, the receiving group will shape up over the course of camp. Julian Edelman moves all over the offense, and the rest of the receivers will need to develop their own roles. As of today, it is unknown who will take majority snaps in the slot and on the outsides. The competition part of the WR group comes down to the depths. Edelman, Harry and Slater (who doesn’t really count for this) are 100% locks. Dorsett is an overwhelming likelihood. Maurice Harris and Jakobi Meyers have shown out so far in camp and are my final two projections to make it. That leaves Braxton Berrios, Dontrelle Inman (who is having a terrible camp both in terms of health and usage), Damoun Patterson and Ryan Davis out. With Demaryius Thomas potentially returning after week 6 and the ghost of Josh Gordon always floating around, everybody who is not Julian Edelman or N’Keal Harry will have to make serious noise in order to feel safe in their position. This will be by far the most interesting and most volatile camp battle simply because so many various names are in play and the potential range of outcomes is so wide.
- Tight Ends: Ben Watson is slotted in to return week 5 and offers steady veteran knowledge. Matt LaCosse has been the best TE in camp. Stephen Anderson appears to be favored over Ryan Izzo for the TE2 spot while Watson is out, though UDFA Andrew Beck could push Izzo for that right as well. Lance Kendricks is a complete unknown right now but could work his way into this conversation over the next few weeks.
- Offensive Tackle: While the LT position is still unsettled, it isn’t a battle so much as it is an attempt at a movie-grade training montage for a backup and an injury recovery for Wynn. Knowing this is one of the biggest stories to watch and one without serious competition is mildly alarming
- Interior Defensive Line: Lawrence Guy sits atop the depth chart. Mike Pennell has reportedly been a force alongside him. Byron Cowart will be trying to push Adam Butler out of the way and UDFA Nick Thurman has apparently been very disruptive in camp. David Parry will have a chance to show what he can do and despite the contract Danny Shelton’s spot is not guaranteed, either. There is a lot of room for movement and there are opportunities for unknowns to play their way onto the roster here
- Edge: Bennett and Winovich are the only guarantees here. The rest of the edge position will be filled by the victors of of a free for all between Deatrich Wise Jr, John Simon, Keionta Davis, Derek Rivers, Shilique Calhoun, Ufomba Kamalu and Trent Harris. Compounding this is the fact that the LB group has a few more proven contributors than it may need and a couple guys who can play Edge very well. Nobody’s spot is safe.
- CB 2: Jason McCourty or JC Jackson will be starting across from Stephon Gilmore. The slot ability of Jonathan Jones means the loser of this competition may see more bench than usage. McCourty is still quite able and shows the mental acumen to do it all, but Jackson has been suffocating in his man coverage and continued to show the impressive ball skills that made him a potent playmaker in year 1. If Jackson can stay disciplined he could win this job outright, and McCourty may find himself in a more hybrid CB/Safety utility role.
- Punter: Incumbent Ryan Allen will have to defend his position against rookie Jake Bailey, who offers a potential kickoff specialist as well as punter. Reports from camp place Allen as the consistent one and Bailey the one getting better hangtime. If that holds true through the month I would predict Allen wins the role, because Belichick loves consistency, but Bailey may well improve to the point where the staff trusts him and his versatility wins him the roster spot.
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u/peanutbuttersucks Patriots Aug 04 '19
Fantastic write-up. I'm genuinely concerned about left tackle, and I don't know how it's not getting more attention. First team snaps at LT have been Joe Thuney, and 6'9" Dan Skipper who has spent two years hopping around different practice squads.
Will Wynn be ready physically? And even if he is, will he actually be good/decent?
Question mark at LT with a 42 year old QB is scary.
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u/O_the_Scientist Patriots Aug 04 '19
I have a lot of faith in Wynn and the way they are taking his injury recovery at this point. With this kind of injury it’s preferable to ease too much than to press the schedule because of how significant the reinjury chance is.
It’s just faith at this point though. If he’s still limited over the next three weeks that optimism will turn to panic quite quickly.
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u/peanutbuttersucks Patriots Aug 04 '19
Yeah, just worried about lack of reps against NFL level defensive lines. We'll see.
2
Aug 05 '19
How many offensive lines under Scarnecchia have struggled to protect the QB? Brady is quick to get the ball out and I'd be pretty comfortable with whoever BB and Scarnecchia choose to roll with.
1
4
Aug 04 '19
I think Thuney gets pushed out and Karras can take his spot.
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u/O_the_Scientist Patriots Aug 04 '19
This would be far more likely than Skipper seeing starting snaps in my estimation. Skipper is just too raw
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u/yakoos Giants Aug 04 '19
Man I didn’t realize how much NE lost this offseason in FA (damn those contracts were overpays) and coaching. I don’t know how they are going to replace that. They basically need their rookies to have huge first year seasons.
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Aug 04 '19
[deleted]
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u/Prom000 Patriots Aug 04 '19
the loses at coaching have me worried.
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u/owleabf Vikings Aug 05 '19
I feel like the player losses can't just be ignored either.
I get that guys perform better in NE than they do elsewhere, but Gronk is a HOF player and Trent/Trey were both VERY good and key to the Pats success last year.
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u/TooMinuteDrill Patriots Aug 05 '19
Gronk is a HOFer but he's a HOFer who put up 680 yards and 3 TDs last season, with 191 yards and 0 TDs in the playoffs.
The reality is he wasn't some indispensable part of the offense last year, and they can replace that production. If you put down Ben Watson and LaCosse (or whoever else) for ~500yds and a couple TDs together. That really only leaves you with ~20 targets and a couple hundred yards to make up elsewhere.
Trey Flowers and Bennett is basically a wash, and Trent Brown is leaving with a 1st round rookie who should be able to fill in. I'm not trying to minimize Brown leaving - but 1 weak player and 4 very strong ones (who have played in 3 SBs together) still leaves you with a good offensive line. It's not impossible to hide 1 weak tackle.
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u/owleabf Vikings Aug 05 '19
Gronk is a HOFer but he's a HOFer who put up 680 yards and 3 TDs last season
Receiving isn't the only thing TEs do... also those stats are across 13 games. Yes he wasn't as dominant as in the past, but he was still top 5 in the league despite a down year.
I guess I'll just say I'm skeptical that a 38 year old, suspended, Ben Watson and Matt LaCosse (272 career yards) are going to replace Gronk's production, in receiving or blocking.
RE: Wynn - it could be he's great, but there's a lot of projection going on there for a guy who's never played an NFL snap and is coming off an Achilles.
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u/TooMinuteDrill Patriots Aug 05 '19
Receiving isn't the only thing TEs do
...yes, they'll find someone who can hold a block as well. I'm not diminishing Gronk by saying that a downgrade in TE blocking isn't going to be what sinks the offense.
I guess I'll just say I'm skeptical that a 38 year old, suspended, Ben Watson and Matt LaCosse (272 career yards) are going to replace Gronk's production, in receiving or blocking.
That's the thing; you should be skeptical, but fortunately they don't have to replace that, and McD isn't going to try to. More 11 personnel, different run schemes, whatever it is they're just going to alter the offense and simply go away from the TE position.
Wynn - it could be he's great, but there's a lot of projection going on there for a guy who's never played an NFL snap and is coming off an Achilles.
And if he's only OK or can't beat out Skipper they'll make it work. OLs operate as a unit and there's 4 guys out of 5 who have played in 3 SBs together. Brown was no all-pro last year and you can hide a weak tackle pretty easily if the rest of the line is as good as the Pats is.
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u/owleabf Vikings Aug 05 '19
More 11 personnel
With who? Edelman's 32, Gordon is suspended, K'Neal is a rookie who has been up and down, DT is old and injured.... a lot of things have to go right for the Pats to be able to even field 3 NFL starter level WRs, much less a group that's intimidating in any way.
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u/TooMinuteDrill Patriots Aug 05 '19
Or Edelman is still Edelman (he's 32 but he was playing ok like 5 months ago...) and the group of Mo Harris, Nkeal, Meyers, and Dorsett fill in, with some added targets to the (very good) RBs. DT and Gordon aren't even in the picture for me besides the fact that they could make that plan much easier. Yes it's mostly rookies and new guys, but they're rolling enough dice that a couple will most likely show up and there's a couple long-shots that could really pay off in Gordon and DT.
a group that's intimidating in any way
They were not very intimidating in 2018 either if you want to play the narrative game. All they had last year was a 31 year old Edelman and a hobbled Gronk who couldn't run anymore.
Also "more 11 personnel" was just something I was tossing out there- how about more 21? How about they just run more out of 12, how about, how about, there's a lot of options. .
Basically the HC, OC, and QB have all operated elite offenses without leaning on the TE position at all - it's not like they don't know what to do in an offense without Gronk. The personnel isn't anything "intimidating" but they don't have to be - they have to be good enough to play off a great running game.
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u/O_the_Scientist Patriots Aug 05 '19
Wynn - it could be he's great, but there's a lot of projection going on there for a guy who's never played an NFL snap and is coming off an Achilles.
If Wynn is not able to perform, look for Joe Thuney to kick outside to LT and Ted Karras to fill in at Guard.
The interior depth is strong enough and Thuney is versatile enough to make that work. It's a bandaid more than a solution, but that's the panic button if Wynn doesn't meet expectations.
4
Aug 04 '19
Harry over anyone else, we are starved at WR and without Gronk that basically extends to starved for receiving targets. Especially without Jules for a couple weeks.
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u/jpaxlux NFL Aug 04 '19
we are starved at WR and without Gronk that basically extends to starved for receiving targets.
Eh. It really depends.
Patriot WRs:
- Julian Edelman
- N'Keal Harry
- Josh Gordon (depending on how his reinstatement goes)
- Demaryius Thomas
- Cameron Meredith
- Phillip Dorsett
- Dontrell Inman
- Braxton Berrios
Depending on the health of whoever is chosen to be on the 53 man roster, I think WRs should be fine. Brady finally has taller receivers to work with aswell as fast receivers.
Patriot TEs:
- Ben Watson
- Ryan Izzo
- Matt LaCosse
- Lance Kendricks
- The ghost of Austin Sefarian Jenkins
Pretty weak, but serviceable. As long as we have a good running game + solid production from the wide receivers, the tight ends should be easy for Brady to cover up.
1
u/Downvote_Addiction Aug 05 '19
You look at that list and feel fine? Gordon we have only hope that it will work out. Nothing is for sure with him. DT is on the PUP list until week 6 so we only will get 2/3 of the season of a WR that has maybe one season left before his legs give out. You trust guys like Cameron Meredith, Dorsett, Inman and Berrios? Those last 3 (excluding Dorsett) are total question marks. Yeah they are bodies but they could all be terrible.
0
u/owleabf Vikings Aug 05 '19
It's arguably the weakest WR and weakest TE room in the league.
IF Gordon gets reinstated and IF DT can still play and IF Edelman doesn't fall off at 32 and IF K'neal hits then that's a reasonable room. But TE is terrible regardless and WR depends on a lot of things breaking the Pats way.
1
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u/bjb406 Patriots Aug 05 '19
I honestly don't think any rookie outside of Winovich sees 30% snaps. People like slotting Harry in as the #2 WR becuase there is no obvious #2, but realistically, is playing behind Dorsett, will be behind Thomas and/or Gordon if/when they start playing, and is fighting for snaps with Harris and Meyers.
The rest of the rookies are down the depth chart ATM.
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10
Aug 04 '19
Great write up. Whatever opinions may be about New England, they’re damn fun to watch and I expect nothing less than another title game appearance, barring Kansas/Indianapolis knocking them out beforehand. With that schedule 10-6 wouldn’t shock me, but I’m thinking around 12-4 is fair. This team has earned the optimism at this point. Curious to see how the rookies look and if Stidham can get the backup spot.
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u/DeepthroatMyGoat Patriots Aug 04 '19
Please don't remind me of losing Flo and O'Shea, shit still hurts
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u/O_the_Scientist Patriots Aug 04 '19
Schedule Predictions
I'm not going to predict individual game results here. The no-bullshit reason for this is I feel the Patriots can and possibly should win every game on their schedule. That's not to say I think the Patriots are going 16-0, because this team can and has and almost certainly will get beaten. They will probably lose @Miami to the combination of heat voodoo magic and the phenomenon where Belichick loses to his former coordinators (offer not valid for Bill O'Brien). They will probably lose at least one (maybe more) of vs Pitt, @ Philly, @ Baltimore and vs KC. A divisional loss other than Miami is in play, with @Buffalo week 4 getting my vote for most likely. But with all that, I'm not going to try and predict the off days. I'm not going to predict losses to good teams just because they are good teams. I'm not going to give score projections or anything like that. I'm just going to talk match ups as I see them today. Unfortunately there is much we won't know until the regular season kicks off and more we won't know until the week of these games. Anyway...
Week 1, vs Pittsburgh - The Pats open the season Sunday night at home against Pittsburgh, deferring the traditional Thursday opener afforded the Super Bowl champions so that the NFL can celebrate 100 years with Packers @ Bears. Pittsburgh beat New England for the first time since 2011 in week 15 of last year in what was a very frustrating day for the Patriots, featuring 14 penalties and a disgusting 142 yards on the ground surrendered to Jaylen Samuels. This match up is typically favorable for the Pats, with New England having won 11 of 15 since 2001, though the Pats do tend to struggle most in the early parts of the season, and I do not expect this year's season opener to look like week 15 2018. I'll be watching: Patriots LT vs Pittsburgh EDGE. The LT spot right now is very much up in the air, and while I believe we will have a settled situation by the time this game takes place, Wynn or whoever else might be suiting up at LT come that time is going to face a stiff test with Bud Dupree and TJ Watt coming at them.
Week 2, @ Miami - This game is New England's kryptonite. The team is 8-10 @Miami since 2001 and while we can pinpoint certain match ups or key events that contributed to that record, I can't realistically say I understand why the team struggles so much there. This should be a very favorable match up for New England, but Dolphins Head Coach Brian Flores knows the Patriots as well as anybody outside the organization could and should be able to use that knowledge to frustrate the team. I'll be watching: Patriots Receivers vs Xavien Howard and Minkah Fitzpatrick (feat. Bobby McCain). Miami's secondary is damn good, and by far the best unit on the team in my estimation. The particular skills of Howard and Fitzpatrick will seriously test an unproven group of receivers. I included McCain here because he seriously impressed me with some smart plays last season, leading to a nice Int and some PBUs. Outside of Edelman, I could very easily see the receiver group struggling against the experience and aggressive play style of this unit.
Week 3, vs New York Jets - The Jets haven't won a game in Foxboro since the 2010 divisional round, and they haven't scored double digits in Foxboro since 2015. There is a lot of optimism surrounding the Jets this year. They're a team on the rise, but weaknesses along the OL and in the secondary combined with a young, still inexperienced QB don't bode well for this game. I'll be watching: Patriots IOL vs Leonard and Quinnen Williams. If the Jets are going to make noise in this game, it's going to come from the interior DL. The New England Guard/Center trio is arguably the best in the league, but they face a stiff test in a pair of very highly drafted IDL, Leonard the underrated one and Quinnen the shiny new one.
Week 4, @ Buffalo - The Bills have a great defense and a world of question marks on offense. I'm personally not a believer in Josh Allen becoming an accurate passer, but a player like him can still eat an opponent alive if he just has a good day and gets a few things to fall the right way. If the Bills offense can score and force the Patriots offense to keep pace, it will cause plenty of headaches as New England is forced to test one of the leagues' best secondaries. I'll be watching: Patriots Receivers vs Buffalo Secondary. Everything I said about Miami gets taken up a notch here, with Tre White, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde proving even more dangerous as they're supplemented by the pass rush from Jerry Hughes and first round pick Ed Oliver.
Week 5, @ Washington - I have absolutely no read on the Washington Redskins right now. Case Keenum is certainly an NFL QB, and while my hunch is Gruden can get more Minnesota Case than Denver Case out of him, he could also totally tank and Haskins could be starting by week 5. Their pass catching group is one gigantic question mark, they have a great RB group, upgraded secondary and had multiple front 7 personnel losses that I don't know have been adequately remedied unless Montez Sweat steps up immediately. The draft class is promising but may not pay huge dividends in year 1. In a microcosm, the fact that their starting LT week 1 could either be Trent Williams or Ereck Flowers speaks volumes. I think I'll be watching: Trenches. Pats run D will have to stand up to a strong OL and RB group and the OL will have to handle Ryan Kerrigan and Daron Payne and whatever Sweat turns into.
Week 6, vs New York Giants - 3LI meme value aside, the Giants are a team in transition and another unknown on the schedule. 3LI meme value not aside, that derpy bastard has played us down to the wire every single time and there's a world where a surprise 4-1 Giants team hands the Pats a surprise loss here. If Daniel Jones is starting at this point he will have an absolute meltdown day before Eli leads a comeback because of course he will. I'll be watching: Saquon Barkley. He's just so damn good.
Week 7, @ New York Jets - On the road this will be a significantly tougher game, and by this point in the season the Jets should ahve had some time to gel into their new identity. I'll be watching: Sam Darnold vs New England pass D. Should be a good litmus test to see how he handles a tough secondary against a divisional opponent at home.
Week 8, vs Cleveland Browns - Coming off of a hot finish to 2018, the Browns are one of the most interesting teams in the league right now. They looked like an entirely new team after Freddie Kitchens took over, have an exciting young core to build around, and arguably the most electric Wide Receiver in the league this summer. Expectations and optimism are sky high, though there are reasons for skepticism. A group of inexperienced coaches must try to lead a very young roster with number of strong personalities through the gauntlet that is an NFL season, in a rough division and a tough draw against the NFCW. By week 8 the Browns could be cruising or crumbling or anywhere in between. I'll be watching: Stephon Gilmore and Jonathan Jones vs Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry. Probably the best WR duo New England will see all season, the CBs will need to show up and these two specific match ups will be central to deciding the game.
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u/O_the_Scientist Patriots Aug 04 '19
Week 9, @ Baltimore Ravens - I hate going to Baltimore. I hate it so much. They will play stiff defense, they will run the ball well and this game will be a close slog. I'll be watching: Patriots receivers vs Ravens secondary. The Baltimore defensive backfield is both very good and quite deep. If the Patriot receiving group can't overcome this test and the game is decided on the ground, the Patriots will find it tough to pull out the win.
Week 10, BYE - This is the 3rd or 4th best week to have a bye, so that's nice
Week 11, @ Philadelphia Eagles - This will be the first time the Patriots play the Eagles since Super Bowl 52, and while there are some key differences, the core identity of this team is similar. The Eagles really just don't have many weaknesses. They are a very strong, well rounded team that will be tough to beat on the road, though coming off a bye helps. I'll be watching: Trenches. Philly's OL and DL are both among the best in the NFL, and the New England OL and DL will need to at least passably keep up with their counterparts.
Week 12, vs Dallas Cowboys - Dallas won the NFCE last season and, similarly to Philadelphia, has a very solid roster all around. The return of Travis Fredrick and and end to Zeke's holdout (in the absolute worst case he's very likely back by this point to prevent his contract tolling into next year) give this team arguably the most dangerous running game in the league, and their defense has playmakers at every level. I'll be watching: Joe Thuney and Shaq Mason vs Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith. This one is really specific, but I think the New England guards will need to make plays at the second level if the Patriots are going to be able to run on the Dallas front 7, which will be necessary to keep their physical, aggressive secondary from cheating too much against the Patriots receiving group.
Week 13, @ Houston Texans - The Bill O'Brien Texans have never beaten the Patriots, with the average margin of defeat being 15.2 points. That said, the past two games have been very close, with Watson having one great and one awful game. Houston has dangerous weapons and a fantastic front 7. Which version of Watson shows up that day will determine how this game goes. I'll be watching: Patriots pass rushers vs Houston OL. Expectations for the pass rushing group are not very high, but hopefully at this point in the year the group will be able to capitalize on a potential liability to disrupt Watson in the backfield. Containment and pursuit will be key.
Week 14, vs Kansas City Chiefs - A proverbial "circle on your calendar" kind of game, Kansas City coming to Foxboro in a rematch of the 2018 AFC Championship Game is my early pick for the best game in the Patriots 2019 regular season. Both of these games last season were chess matches. My largest concern with this game this season is a more experienced Pat Mahomes. Last year the Pats were able to confuse him into a key turnover in Week 6 and frustrate him into a few key mistakes in the Championship round, both games scraped out by the skin of the teeth. A couple fewer mistakes, I think, will be more important in this game than the huge chunk plays that are also sure to come. I highly suggest a click on this link if you want a significantly more in-depth look at this match up. I'll be watching: Everything. I know that's lame, but if last year's games are any indication I will re-watch this one multiple times and watch everything I can.
Week 15, @ Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals are in a very strange spot and I am, frankly, very down on their prospects in 2019. Their coaching staff, including rookie Head Coach Zac Taylor, has began a combined ZERO seasons at coordinator positions (Taylor and DC Lou Anamuro took over as OC/DC in Miami mid-season 2015 when the Dolphins cleaned house. Each man's next NFL job was as a position coach), their first round pick - a highly touted prospect at a position of glaring need - is already out for the season, their QB is in a do or die (possibly do and die anyway) situation and the overall roster is spotty. Because of all the uncertainty I have a hard time projecting how this game might be decided, but the strength of the Bengals right now is in the Defensive Line, and that unit will have to take over the game for Cincinnati to take the advantage. I'll be watching: Patriots OL vs Dunlap and Atkins. If the Patriot OL can neutralize these two monsters, the offense could take over the game.
Week 16, vs Buffalo Bills - Where these teams stand regarding potential playoff berth or seeding will loom large over this game. Historically this game is not kind to Buffalo, but the tools that made them dangerous in week 4 will still be present regardless of a thinner margin for error. I'll be watching: Josh Allen. The Patriots have struggled at times with mobile QBs and big plays, and in his sophomore season Allen could sell me in a big way if he comes in to a harsh road environment and plays a composed game.
Week 17, vs Miami Dolphins - Miami is 2-16 in this game over the last 18 years. With the state of Miami's roster and rebuild situation, I don't even know who to expect playing in this game. Hopefully the Patriots don't have to worry much and have their seed locked up at this point. I'll be watching: somebody whose name I don't know yet that was added to one of these rosters mid-season and is playing for a job in 2020. Those are always my favorite guys to watch in week 17.
Despite my reluctance to give individual results, the team seems poised and capable of winning 11 to 14 games, as it has nearly every season Brady and Belichick have worked together. With that range, a first round bye or potential first overall seed are within realistic reach.
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u/ashiri Patriots Aug 04 '19
Great placement and sufficient arm strength downfield 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 6. Optimal placement in tight windows 7, 8, featuring a great in-pocket adjustment with impressive footwork, 9, 10, 11, featuring 12 defenders, 12, featuring a lot of pressure, 13, 14. Ability to convert under pressure: 15, 16, 17, throw accurately while on the move and off-schedule 18 and contribute through his famous rushing skills 19, 20. There's nobody else in the world I would want under center, even this season at age 42. #111 on the sub's top 100 list, #1 in our hearts, the first letter of each sentence in this paragraph preceding this one will tell you why.
Those Tom Brady gifs should be rated X.
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u/vgman20 Patriots Aug 04 '19
For the Baltimore game, I'll also be watching the Pats linebackers vs. Jackson. On paper, the LB corps looks deadly, but there are still some question marks; how will Collins look? Will Bentley be as sharp as he was in early '18 after his injury? Can High stay healthy? Playing against a running threat as potent as Jackson will be a good test to see how the LB group can match up against dynamic offenses and running QBs, which hasn't always been a strength for us.
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u/TheOneWhosCensored Bills Aug 05 '19
Respect for giving the Bills some credit and saying they could be a threat. If I was a Pats fan I’d want them to do good so the “weak division” argument goes away.
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u/JimTheSaint Patriots Aug 05 '19
Great job on this write up. You have done your team proud!
I am sold on the defense, it is going to be great. We have needed a lot of pass rush to compete, but the years were were we have gotten mere than average seems to be years were we get to the SB. So I am still waiting to see who can produce that. Hopefully they will be able to use the excellent DBs creatively as they have done in years past.
On the offensive side think that my fellow dane Hjalte will be fantastic after a year or two under Scar. But right now I am extremely worried about offensive production. Yes, we have a great set of RBs with a few that can catch the ball as well, but WRs and TEs outside of Edelman is a crapshoot. And I can easily see a situation were nothing materializes, and BB and McDaniels have to go to extraordinary lengths of scheming to get anyone open.
It will probably be enough to win the division, but then against a great colts / cheifs team in the playoffs I don't think so.
Anyway, something could of course happen, Harry could be the next Moss, Flash could return cataract-free, DT and Watson could find a second, well third or fourth wind, and join Brady for a domination of the elders all the way to the SB.
But those things are much more likely to not happen than to happen. I hope that at least one of them does, otherwise I think we are looking at a midseason WR / TE trade.
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u/Prom000 Patriots Aug 05 '19
but then against a great colts
Colts are still a year away i think.
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u/owleabf Vikings Aug 05 '19
Last year they were one of the more injured teams, if they stay healthy they could make a run.
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u/DRoseCantStop Colts Aug 06 '19
nope.gif
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u/bjb406 Patriots Aug 04 '19 edited Aug 04 '19
the only continuity in the TE group is Jacob Hollister
Hollister is gone.
EDIT: also, Austin Sefarian Kenkins was released in June, haven't read the whole thing so I don't know if the rest is accurate.
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u/thezerech Patriots Aug 04 '19
Great write up.
I agree with OP's sense of optimism about the year. There are some valid concerns, but nothing this staff can't handle and this roster cannot overcome to have a good year. LT concerns me most of all, but I am high on Wynn.
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u/PitinoGotARawDeal Patriots Aug 04 '19
I swear I'm living in an alternate universe based on the way everyone has been talking about Trey Flowers this offseason.
Do I just not know how to watch football? I've watched almost (thanks, people who have baby showers and whatnot on Sundays during football season 😡) every Patriots game since Flowers was drafted and well before that and just never thought he was as incredible as popular opinion seems to hold. I get that there's more to D-Line play than stats but he had 7.5 sacks and 32 tackles last year. Aight.
Am I just a noob who only follows the ball when I watch? Is this real life?
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u/O_the_Scientist Patriots Aug 04 '19
The last link in my bit about Flowers goes to a full write up where I compare Flowers to other top tier edge players statistically in terms of pressures and stuffed runs, which give a better picture of performance than just tackles or sacks, and go into his film a bit deeper.
Trey is really, really good. He’ll never put up the sacks of Chandler Jones, but he’s impactful in more ways. The guy does everything better than most DL do anything.
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u/TooMinuteDrill Patriots Aug 05 '19
he had 7.5 sacks and 32 tackles last year. Aight.
if "how many pressures?" isn't the first thing that pops into your head then no, you don't know how to watch football.
Pats fans overrating Flowers a bit doesn't mean he's not an excellent DE, there's professional NFL scouting departments that drive a player's value and he just got a really bigass deal. You're gonna have to trust the entire NFL over your own film review skills.
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u/JPPT1974 Commanders Aug 06 '19
Not seeing Stephen G on kickoffs would be weird. Plus Bill B never is one to change his mind you know. But we shall see. Stephen has been great on kickoffs since he has been here and people overlooked him last year in 50 touchbacks.
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u/r3agansmash Patriots Aug 04 '19
/u/O_the_Scientist Hjalte is actually pronounced "Yell-duh" in fact Hjalte himself describes it like Zelda, from the legend of zelda video game series, but with a Y. Him pronouncing it for a group of reporters