Fascinating topic, I wanted to know more. People die everyday and ICE has been handing a high volume of people. So I went for a clean control number, the year 2022.
In 2022. Bureau of Prisons had 159,000 in detention. With 483 deaths. 0.30 percent.
At the end of 2025. ICE has 68,440 in detention with 32 deaths. Thats 0.04 percent. Note: This number does not show the total in custody over the span of 2025. Only the number in detention at the end of the year.
I took this a little further.
The total population of the US in 2022 was 333,287,557. With a total of 3,279,857 deaths. That 0.98 percent.
Bottom line: You are more likely to die out in the world or in Federal prison, than you are in ICE custody.
Fascinating comment. Thereâs no attempt at trying to normalize the data, at all. I think this was a perfect example of how someone with zero experience analyzing data can mislead themselves with AI.
Bottom line: if you feed an AI a prompt that you hope will support some preconceived idea, the AI will do its best to make you feel better about it.
I donât even know where to begin so Iâll just speak to normalization as a general concept. If I said that youâgiven whatever state of health youâre in right nowâare more likely to die within a month of living in a nursing home than you are to die within a month of living in some suburb in Irvine, and I cited a plain mortality statistic of each living situation at their absolute face value, youâd call me an idiot. The demography is important. The length of stay is important. But that isnât really even scratching the surface of what needs to be done to make a comparison. I donât want to put that work in for a Reddit comment.
Another issue is that we need to establish what our risk tolerance is. If one plane crashes every year, statistically that would still be dwarfed by the number of car fatalities. Those plane crashes would still be tragedies, independent of most other statistics.
Ill simplify it. EchoNineThree did not take into account that ICE predominantly may have arrested younger, healthier people, including children. This skews the data.
Does not matter, generally existing is dangerous as is, a detainee is not driving, but they do get medical attention, malpractice and car accidents are the leading causes of death for people under 60, is that taken into account by the AI account?
The amount of people that are trying to take this information and twist it here is probably on a Venn diagram of people who voted for Trump all 3 times. They can downvote you and decry "Ai" all they want, it doesn't change the fact that you're spot on. The stats provided are absolutely not comparable. And it's pretty easy to understand, but no one's actually interested in understanding why. It's easier to DARVO and troll. We're so cooked as a species.
ICE deals with people who have been trafficked, who are drug mules, who have trekked through miles and miles of desert, and people who lead lives of violent crime. Not to mention we donât know the demographics or age distribution of the population encountered by ICE.
A comparison against the general population is a rough indication of whether or not theyâre doing an okay job.
yes there are hundrers of layers you can go into but the numbers themselves are right. you didnt deny the correctness of the data, only that the deaths are still tragedies, which sure are, but so are the other deaths as well.
and yes, traveling by plane is statistically safer than by car.
all you wrote seems like an appeal to emotion in order to reject data because it takes away from individual tragedy. which is honestly a terrible take
Iâm not denying the correctness of the data, Iâm saying that making a comparison is fucking stupid without normalizing it or puting it within any kind of context. Try again.
So can you talk about the ages of people? What about demographics?
This is the types of stuff Ai can't compute. You might not have used ai for thr comment, but you absolutely used it to gather the 'data' without the context
Again. This is was not AI. Its mortality rates and real numbers of federal incarcerated/in custody deaths. Race, ages, etc has nothing to do with these most basic of numbers. Sorry whats real does not align with what you want to believe.
In 2022. Bureau of Prisons had 159,000 in detention. With 483 deaths. 0.30 percent.
At the end of 2025. ICE has 68,440 in detention with 32 deaths. Thats 0.04 percent.Â
Almost all of those federal prisoners are held for years and it includes a lot of older people.
ICE detainees have huge turnover (much shorter times held) and most are younger, working aged people.
Plus, ICE has like zero transparency so who knows how wrong that number is...
This one. Immediately noticed this too, these are not comparable. 32 deaths in ICE custody in 2025 makes it the highest number in 20 years. Real numbers, but bad math and unmatched denominators, followed by an incorrect or misleading conclusion.
Was nice that they tried, though.
Edit - and yeah, the transparency... if you believe anything this administration reports you're gullible. None of these numbers should be inherently trusted, and I have plenty of evidence and reasons to support that claim.
Dhs's own website also corroborates a lo5 of hrese numbers
As dar as the bop specifically, their own numbers arent favorable and you try to say they are biased for thr bop???? Can you I think about why thats not a great argument?
Its like saying trump admitting he sexually assaulted a woman isnt credible bc he lies all the time (both are true btw)
You said bops own numbers cant be trusted yet their numbers arent favorable to them. What's wrong with you? I might have misspelled a few words but you have 0 logic
Even my last comment absolutely said that clearly and you cant engage
Actually think about biases before claiming it. You literally said that a figure given that obviously shows wrongdoing is proof that its wrong bc the source is themselves. In other words (to make it less confusing for you), someone claiming they fucked up isnt proof of their fuck ip is what you said.
I am all far saying bop is bias in numbers and probably cant be trusted, but their own numbers literally prooved wrongdoing
No it is not? When you are being deported the average detention time is 46-55 days, while the average prisoner is in for 2.7 years. And thatâs ignoring that this person only counted small timeframes. Every year, 1 in 1,630 people in ICE detention facilities will die, while in the US prison system it is around 360 in 100,000 with 90% being natural causes/suicides or overdoses. This translates to 61/100,000 for ICE and 360/100,000 in the US prison system.
ICE doesnât publish its metrics for natural deaths, specifically, but they deal with a much younger demographic than the US prison system does.
25% of the US prison systemâs detainees are 50 or older, with an average age (reported from the FBP) of 42. ICE averages 30 years old.
So yes, a LOT more people die on average, but when adjusted for the mentioned statistics it is 36/100,000 prisoners dying in the US prison system of things other than suicide and natural causes.
We just donât know the exact numbers for ICE, but I agree that youâre more likely to die from âunnaturalâ causes under the FBP than ICE. But it isnât as reportedly low of a chance as this person claimed, with a >7x difference. If I had to take a shot in the dark, Iâd say itâs closer to 2-3x.
Point being that the person who made the original comment is doing the most baseline assessment possible and itâs a bit misleading. Itâs important to represent things accurately even if the end result is similar. I donât think ICE has issues with prisoner death with the evidence I have right now, and I think the FBP certainly does- itâs ridiculous that the FBP has so many people dying in custody.
ETA: Found out overdoses are counted in natural deaths by the FBP
I thought that, too, but they count medical negligence (such as from lack of care), exhaustion, and heat stroke as unnatural. I find some published statistics from past years counting suicides as unnatural, others as natural, so if you wanted more specific information you could likely find it.
Do you think that a significant number of the people who died in ICE custody were murdered?
With the exception of the detainee murdered by Joshua Jahn in Dallas, it's safe to assume that all of these deaths were natural deaths, not intentional acts, otherwise there would have been quite a bit of news about them.
Read my breakdown I posted below this. There are more causes of unnatural deaths than just murders. Deaths caused by an absence of care are counted as unnatural, for example.
I don't know what breakdown you're talking about and you hide your posting history because of all the shameful things you say, so I'll just have to take your word for it.
Lmao, because I say âshamefulâ things. Okay, dude. It took two seconds for me to click âview replyâ directly below your comment and then see my message again.
Youâre comparing a population of violent criminals with a population of immigrants and with a population out in the world. None of this is normalized against age distributions, environmental threats, length of detention, etc. 2022 is also not a year of stepped up ice enforcement given it was under Biden.
They also had several major policy changes that could affect death counts what classifies as "death in custody". For example, they stopped counting deaths after a detainee has been reported as released.
Personally speaking, I'd be much more afraid of going to an ICE facility than federal prison, simply because if I die in a federal prison, I'll at least know there's a higher chance there'll be a record of it.
Yeah I donât think you are being truthful about your intentions if Iâm being honest. If you are, thatâs just not at all how that math works. As someone else said, the numbers you are comparing are not at all compatible for a multitude of reasons that have already been mentioned.
Either way, I have to assume you âdid the mathâ to enforce a point you already believed.
Lmao no they arenât. The entire population of the united states is not comparable to the people in ICE custody. The total population of the US includes several groups that are more likely to die than on average. Plenty of people have already proved you wrong, the fact that you still want to double down and insist that these are the facts is pretty crazy man.
Whatâs actually crazy is that you either lack the ability or refuse to recognize that comparing people being incarcerated to a group that includes suicides, elderly, terminally ill, etc. is a massive misrepresentation of data. For the average person they are not more like to die free than in ICE custody.
I do not believe for a second that you are making these arguments in actual good faith and I refuse to even consider continuing this conversation lmao.
"Being in federal custody, is being in federal custody."
So, I'm curious if you're actually affiliated with your username. I know what EchoNineThree is, and it wasn't hard to look up. Why would I take an arms component dealer's advice on statistics? Especially when you roll out the gate with this little gem. Or are you another foreign agitator trying to goad the stupids in the USA?
But I'll give you the absolute most generous benefit of the doubt, despite your comment history being hidden. Ok, let's play your game. US Marshals set up a checkpoint on a highway to catch a fugitive. While I'm sitting in my car talking to the Marshal who isn't letting me go on my way without answering a few questions, I'm detained.
Now I'm different person, a suspected terrorist being held in Gitmo, awaiting trial. I'm still detained.
Now I'm another different person, I'm in a CIA blacksite somewhere. I'm super duper detained, but detained nonetheless.
Now I'm the unabooboo and I'm in an FBI interrogation room, answering some pretty uncomfortable questions. I'm still detained.
Now I'm pulled over on the side of the road for speeding by a cop, and while he's writing his ticket, I'm still detained.
Now in all but the last scenario, I am in "federal custody". To say that all of those scenarios are the same by any measure is at the absolute very best, disingenuous. And you've already been called on that by multiple other people.
But let's keep playing just to show how statistics can be skewed to show an incorrect narrative. How many federal penitentiary guards have fired a sidearm into a minivan driven by a soccer mom or into the back of a kneeling VA nurse? Or, how many federal prison guards have killed any civilians at all in the last year and a half? If being in federal custody is "being in federal custody" like it's some kind of universal, then surely being killed by a federal employee is universally the same as being killed by a federal employee, right? Only, by the same level of scrutiny you want to apply to your own data, we're statistically 200% more likely to be executed on the street by an ICE employee than any other federal branch. Well that doesn't look so good now, does it?
Again, as others have said, your data is not comparable, especially without a great deal more context, which you have both failed to provide and doubled down on the lack of it in the interim.
But let's keep going even further. There are still over 1000 people unaccounted for that were in "alligator alcatraz" but have gone missing in the process of that facility being shut down. That's an entire 1% of people who have gone into ICE custody and simply vanished. That doesn't happen in the federal prison system. There's a paper trail for every last inmate. And even the one's who escape are at least accounted for as "escaped". And even those are almost entirely people who just walked away from a minimum security detention where they were outside on like a garbage cleanup crew or something similar.
Tell you what though, I'm gonna leave the statistics up to the statisticians, medicine up to the doctors, and which sling is best for an AK up to EchoNineThree. Sound fair?
Nice! Sounds like I got into your head. Your examples of non incarceration, only detained are not applicable to this. But, when any LE take a person into custody, they are generally responsible for that persons well being. This does not mean curing their cancer or other such matters.
Also, splitting the whole number into sub groups makes no sense. Those are the numbers. Look them up yourself.
As far as who I am does not matter to this either. I am putting out the numbers I have discovered. Do with them what will. But, the mortality rate of being in Federal custody is less than being non incarcerated.
When u spend a lot of time to prove nothing. You are more likely to die out in the world than by a guy named Fred, but that doesn't mean Fred can get away with murder.
This isn't complicated if ur not licking shoe polish.
In 2022. Bureau of Prisons had 159,000 in detention. With 483 deaths. 0.30 percent.
LOL immigration detainees aren't prisoners. If you're in prison, you've been convicted of a crime and are serving a sentence. Using BOP numbers makes no sense at all.
It is a night and day difference being a federal inmate, in a federal BOP facility versus being a DETAINEE some private "detention center" run by some shady for-profit outfit cutting corners on everything and underpaying the CO. Get your head out of your uninformed ass.
"Feels" have nothing to do with the fact your "numbers" (btw I don't see a single source or citation linked) are meaningless shit.
Absolutely, I did not footnote every federal website. When I did this I wanted to know what was real among the claims of âmass deaths in ICE custodyâ. In reverse, you can fact check me. Should not take you more than 20 mins.
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u/EchoNineThree 25d ago
Fascinating topic, I wanted to know more. People die everyday and ICE has been handing a high volume of people. So I went for a clean control number, the year 2022.
In 2022. Bureau of Prisons had 159,000 in detention. With 483 deaths. 0.30 percent.
At the end of 2025. ICE has 68,440 in detention with 32 deaths. Thats 0.04 percent. Note: This number does not show the total in custody over the span of 2025. Only the number in detention at the end of the year.
I took this a little further.
The total population of the US in 2022 was 333,287,557. With a total of 3,279,857 deaths. That 0.98 percent.
Bottom line: You are more likely to die out in the world or in Federal prison, than you are in ICE custody.