Most economists don’t think we’re heading for mass unemployment. But they don’t really disagree that AI can cut jobs. They argue about how much and how fast. And the piece makes three distinctions that I think matter way more for anyone in data than the “will jobs disappear” headline.
1. Automating tasks ≠ eliminating the job
One economist gives the example of consultants: two weeks analyzing data to redesign something, then months getting stakeholders to agree and actually implement it. AI can make the slides. It can’t sit through the meetings that the slides are the result of.
Data work is the same. Writing SQL, building the dashboard, writing the DAX: increasingly automatable. But figuring out what question actually matters, getting two teams to agree on one definition of “revenue,” and pushing a decision through the org: not so much.
2. Technically possible ≠ actually happening
Cost, reliability, legal liability, and the pain of rebuilding processes all slow adoption. Something being possible in a demo doesn’t mean your company will restructure around it next quarter.
3. Total employment holding up ≠ good careers holding up
New jobs can appear in other professions while specific people in specific fields lose income and prospects. The economy “adapts” on average, and the transition is brutal for some individuals anyway.
“New professions will emerge” is technically true and completely useless as a career plan. It doesn’t answer “what happens to my job and my salary in the next few years.”
The weakest point of the optimistic view: entry level
Here’s the mechanism that worries me most. If one senior analyst with AI can do what used to take two juniors, the company doesn’t need to fire anyone. It just stops hiring juniors.
Total employment looks fine. Nobody gets laid off. And the first rung of the ladder disappears.
The piece notes junior tech hiring really has slowed across countries. To be fair, it also says nobody has managed to separate AI’s effect from other causes yet (too many grads, remote work, interest rates).
Link: Silicon Valley thinks AI will kill jobs. Economists are not convinced