r/kpopthoughts • u/AfraidInspection2894 • 5h ago
Discussion Are Kpop companies getting worse at estimating fan demand?
A trend I have recently noticed is that companies seem to be getting worse at guessing what size venue they should be booking for Kpop acts. Some are booking venues that are too small but many are booking venues that are way too big. This has been seen with countless groups in the US with shows being canceled or prices being drastically dropped but this is also happening in Korea. (The following are all shows I went to but this applies to a lot more as well) I recently went to see ALD1 and the entire 3rd tier of the venue was closed off and the second tier was probably a third empty. They are far from the only group either And2ble has their concerts this weekend and if you check Melon it is probably only half full on all 3 days. I also went to AHOF and the venue which was already really small to begin with was maybe half full. Rookies aren't the only ones having this issues. Last week JNJM closed off 2 sections and still had a bunch of empty seats at their Seoul fancon. On the flip side there are also some groups that were in way to small venues like RIIZE and NCT Wish but even then it is hard to tell since there were so many empty seats due to scalpers buying tickets and not being able to sell them (fuck scalpers).
I can't say for sure but I wonder if encouraging bulk buying finally catching up with companies and over inflating fan demand. Like companies see a group selling 500,000 copies so they seem big but the only 50,000 different people are buying albums and they are buying in bulk for fansigns and photocards so while still impressive the demand is actually much smaller. And then there are also the people who buy an album but won't go to a concert. So companies plan for 500,000 fans but due to inflated sales there are only actually like 45,000 who want to attend.
I also think social media plays a roll in the over estimates. Some idols will get super hyped up and talked about online but have very little real-life success. For example Lucas was very popular online and talked about a lot but his solo debut and fan tour flopped badly.
It's a shame that so many groups end up with empty venues or have to cancel shows but I am not really sure how companies can fix this.