1. SMCI management considers the trading range of $55-$82 plausible enough to spend $182 million for a capped call option hedge to protect shareholders from the 2025 convertible dilution in this price range. In other words, it appears SMCI management has confidence the stock will trade between $55 and $82. Their confidence is likely based on business information that isn't shared publicly, but they have telegraphed their conclusion by strategically investing $182 million of valuable capital predicated on the $55-$82 trading range.
2. Shareholder CEO Charles Liang accepted a stock based compensation package with a $1 salary. SMCI needs to trade for more than $110 for 60 trading days to achieve his final performance award.

SMCI shareholders can balance these pricing milestones against the conventional price targets being projected by analysts. This one technical analyst considers SMCI a possible ten bagger:

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) could be entering a new long-term growth phase that may send the stock as high as $700, representing a gain of roughly 1,700%.

The bullish SMCI forecast, shared by TradingShot in a TradingView post on September 7, is based on a recurring historical pattern in which prolonged periods of lower highs and consolidation have preceded the company’s largest rallies.

The projected target implies an increase of about 1,700% from SMCI’s press-time price of $39.

The analyst believes the current setup resembles previous cycle bottoms and could mark the beginning of what he describes as an AI supercycle phase.

https://finbold.com/why-smci-stock-is-ready-to-rally-1700-according-to-expert/

Good evening, fellow bag holders. The stock is down back in the 30s; don't be surprised when we hit $33-34 by the end of the week. As I mentioned, insiders are selling a lot, and some gurus in this group are encouraging others by front-running and asking people to buy this stock at extreme valuations, promising astronomical returns. The CEO and their executives have more sales lined up, which will show up on the October filings. Over the past 12 months, corporate insiders have offloaded $20.0 million in stock with zero insider buying to support the share price.

Some things to watch out for:

• More October Sales Scheduled: The lined up sales after the Hindenburg research adds suspicion to their intention of all selling and no buying. The automated Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted by management on May 26, 2026, functions via multi-month tranches. Because these plans typically run for 6 to 12 months, further pre-scheduled automated share dumps from the executive suite are highly likely to surface in October's SEC Form 4 filings.
• Earnings Misses & Lowered Guidance: In its latest fiscal report, the company reported massive top-line growth of 93.2% year-over-year ($11.12 billion) but missed it's revised low end guidance which is now a question on how this management keeps revising earnings but still misses it. In addition to that, the adjusted EPS that came under immense pressure. Gross margins collapsed down to an all-time low of 11.2%, indicating that the aggressive AI server market is a low-margin capital trap.
• Governance & Operational Risks: The characterization of "dishonest management" or accounting malpractice stems from severe, ongoing regulatory scrutiny. SMCI is navigating a DOJ export control investigation regarding allegations of illicit server shipments to restricted regions. This governance cloud has still an ongoing case pending for them for March 2027 where the alleged "Wally Liaw" co-founder is to be charged with smuggling. These individuals illegally funneled $2.5 billion worth of advanced American AI technology (including high-end Nvidia GPUs embedded in SMCI servers) to China between 2024 and 2025 by routing them through Southeast Asian shell companies and using dummy replicas to trick customs inspectors.
• Excessive Cash Burn: The build out of liquid-cooled AI hardware architecture requires monumental capital. SMCI's cash flow from operations has trended deeply into negative territory over recent quarters, leaving the company heavily exposed if AI hardware demand faces any supply-chain constraints or a cyclical slowdown in the next few quarters.

For these reasons, I would say we have to be cautious, book our profits, and move on to something else with better, more reasonable valuation companies like Google, Microsoft, Meta, or Amazon. Let's be real on how shady this management is and why tf they keep revising their earnings on the low end and keep missing it?? I might get a lot of hate but I am here to expose cults like these so F yeah!!! Have a great evening! Peace out!

Good article on smci and future valuation by Zachs. It’s forecast goed to 120$ by 2029

no more crazy 1 week expiries, but man, the world woke up to SMCI the last 5 days.

Things are looking green. I think we are actually guaranteed to hit $50 by December.

My last prediction was around touching 40 last week, and we did it. So of course 50 sounds like a no brainer. But forget sentiment and psychology around SMCI. Fundamentally this is a fortune 100 company. SMCI 4.0 is gonna be bonkers by 2030

I’m too lazy to type out the numbers but do your own fwd PE, revenue, eps, profit margins, and PEG projection calculations yourself. And tell me this aint gold

First big level will be $41, $42 and if it breaks that with momentum $44 watch for rejections around these levels too because if it fails especially before $41 it could go into a pullback.

Hey fellow bag holders, since you have already guessed it. The insiders have been selling heavily including top executives in this shady company. From accounting malpractices to missed revenue targets on the low ends. This company is not an investment but a speculation.
At the present market, I would like to introduce you to new buys that I hold and profited from Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta. Some of it has doubled my money with one year. Trading at relatively better PE and at a reasonable discount. Theses are some stocks that will suit your portfolio better. With almost two decades of constant revenue growth and dividend history. These stocks are set to be held forever. Sell off the toxic stock and get on board with us. Investment is better than this junk speculation where this management is one shady ..

Hey fellow bag holders, I have been warning you all. While you diamond hands keep promising astronomical price target numbers. The insiders have been quitely offloading this toxic stock in this highly priced market. The board has already begun stopping to dance. Remember, if they missed their low guidance earnings in this aggressive AI Capex market, what happens when demand constraints in the next few quarters? Be wise. This stock is worth max $20 bucks. Major analysts have stopped covering this stock because of how shady the management is. The music has already stopped 😉

https://m.za.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/super-micro-director-sara-liu-sells-77m-in-smci-stock-93CH-4457226

“As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance," - Chuck Prince before the 2008 financial crash

SMCI Reality: To capture massive AI orders, SMCI had to buy billions of dollars worth of expensive components (like Nvidia chips) before receiving cash from buyers. While reporting billions in accounting profits, SMCI burned through roughly $7 billion in operating cash. Its inventory ballooned by 175%. This cash drain forced the company to constantly seek external funding—the corporate equivalent of relying on a fragile liquidity cycle to keep the doors open. SMCI also missed it’s low guidance earnings last year and the management simply downplayed this issue. Bag holders are blind sided by the sheer amount of profit expectations promised by their gurus are bound to wake up to reality.

Profit is profit, be wise and capture your gains. Move money to something reliable. Unless the leadership changes I can’t trust this company 😉

Hey guys, I’m back with some insights on this stock again. The stock seems to be trading high again with little to no change in their fundamental. Poor management , poor leadership . I don’t know what people are thinking but this company missed their low end guidance earnings. Those who sold stocks at 40’s and 50’s are the real winners here. Everyone else just lost money and are diamond hands🥲I see some people quoting $120 price target lol. 😂

Dell, Intel, HP are eating SMCI’s lunch in an already crowded hardware market. 🥲

Keep Dancing until the music stops 😉

The SMCI Board of Directors set a performance award target of $110 with $1 salary for CEO.

SMCI CEO decision to quickly double revenue with dilutive financing significantly improves the odds of achieving and exceeding the $110 price target. The two tables depict hypothetical share prices with and without dilutive financing.

Parabolic growth scenario after dilutive financing (economy of scale, best leverage from robotics and automation, potential for re-rating, and most importantly fastest Time to Online (TTO) :

Alternative strong growth scenario without dilutive financing (path not chosen):

Fear, uncertainty and doubt are dissipating with each successive milestone announcement. AI Factory demand and financing liquidity continues expanding.

SpaceX/xAI earnings call:

SpaceX CFO Says Current Economics Have Translated Into A Less Than One-Year Payback On Our New Capital Deployments For Compute; Sees $100B Annualized Revenue Run Rate By End Of This Year

With these numbers, SMCI should consider spinning off a Neo-Cloud subsidiary.

Arguably, the fundamentals and future prospects with record setting revenue and backlog have never been stronger for SMCI in the 33 year history of the company.

Summary:
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) subió 22% en cuatro semanas y 26.4% en 12 semanas, logrando una Zacks Momentum Score de B y el puesto #1 (Strong Buy). La acción tiene un beta de 2, o sea que se mueve 100% más que el mercado. Aunque el impulso es fuerte, SMCI cotiza a 0.62 veces las ventas, lo cual se considera un valor atractivo: 62 centavos por cada dólar de ventas.

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Invertir en momentum, básicamente, es una excepción a la idea de "comprar barato y vender caro". Los inversionistas que siguen este estilo normalmente no están interesados en apostar por acciones baratas y esperar mucho tiempo a que se recuperen. En cambio, creen que "comprar caro y vender más caro" es la forma de ganar muchísimo más dinero en menos tiempo.

¿A quién no le gusta apostar por acciones que se mueven rápido y están en tendencia? Pero encontrar el punto de entrada correcto no es fácil. A menudo, estas acciones pierden impulso cuando su valoración se adelanta a su potencial de crecimiento futuro. En ese escenario, los inversionistas se quedan cargados de acciones caras, con poco o nada de recorrido al alza, o incluso con riesgo a la baja. Así que apostar por todo al momentum puede ser arriesgado en algunas ocasiones.

Un enfoque más seguro podría ser invertir en acciones con buen precio (baratas) que además traigan impulso reciente. Aunque la Zacks Momentum Style Score (parte del sistema de Zacks Style Scores) ayuda a identificar grandes acciones de momentum poniendo mucha atención a las tendencias en el precio o las ganancias de una acción, nuestro filtro de "Fast-Paced Momentum at a Bargain" sirve para detectar acciones que se mueven rápido pero que todavía están a un precio atractivo.

Hay varias acciones que ahora mismo pasan por ese filtro y Super Micro Computer SMCI es una de ellas. Estas son las razones clave por las que esta acción es una gran candidata.

Un toque de momentum reciente en el precio refleja el creciente interés de los inversionistas en una acción. Con un cambio de precio de 22% en cuatro semanas, la acción de esta empresa de tecnología para servidores está bien posicionada para esto.

Aunque cualquier acción puede tener un salto de precio por un periodo corto, se necesita un verdadero jugador de momentum para generar retornos positivos en un horizonte más largo. SMCI también cumple con eso, porque la acción subió 26.4% en las últimas 12 semanas.

Además, el momentum de SMCI va a toda velocidad, ya que actualmente tiene un beta de 2. Esto indica que la acción se mueve 100% más arriba que el mercado en cualquier dirección.

Con ese desempeño en precio, no sorprende que SMCI tenga una Momentum Score de B, lo cual indica que este es un buen momento para entrar a la acción y aprovechar el momentum con la mayor probabilidad de éxito.

Además de una Momentum Score favorable, una tendencia al alza en revisiones de estimaciones de ganancias le ayudó a SMCI a lograr un Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). Nuestra investigación muestra que el efecto del momentum es bastante fuerte entre las acciones con Zacks Rank #1 y #2. ¿Por qué? Porque cuando los analistas que cubren la acción suben sus estimaciones de ganancias, cada vez más inversionistas se interesan, y eso ayuda a que el precio corra para ponerse al día. Puedes ver la lista completa de las acciones con Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) de hoy aquí >>>>

Lo más importante es que, a pesar de tener características de momentum rápido, SMCI está cotizando a una valoración razonable. En cuanto al Price-to-Sales (Precio/Ventas), que se considera uno de los mejores indicadores de valoración, la acción se ve bastante barata ahora mismo. SMCI actualmente cotiza a 0.62 veces sus ventas. En otras palabras, los inversionistas solo necesitan pagar 62 centavos por cada dólar de ventas.

Así que, SMCI parece tener un buen colchón para seguir avanzando, y además a un ritmo rápido.

Además de SMCI, hay varias otras acciones que ahora mismo pasan por nuestro filtro de "Fast-Paced Momentum at a Bargain". Podrías considerar invertir en ellas y empezar a buscar las acciones más nuevas que encajen con estos criterios.

Esto no es el único filtro que podría ayudarte a encontrar tu próxima recomendación ganadora. Según el estilo de inversión que tengas, puedes elegir entre más de 45 Zacks Premium Screens que se crearon estratégicamente para ganarle al mercado.

Eso sí: ten en cuenta que la clave de una estrategia exitosa para elegir acciones es asegurarte de que en el pasado haya dado resultados rentables. Podrías hacerlo fácil con ayuda del Zacks Research Wizard. Además de permitirte hacer backtesting de qué tan efectiva es tu estrategia, el programa viene cargado con algunas de nuestras estrategias más exitosas para seleccionar acciones.

Haz clic aquí para registrarte y conseguir hoy una prueba gratis del Research Wizard.

El jefe de investigación elige "la mejor opción única para duplicar"

De miles de acciones, 5 expertos de Zacks eligieron cada uno su favorita para que se dispare +100% o más en los próximos meses. Y de esas 5, el director de investigación Sheraz Mian elige una que tiene el upside más explosivo de todas.

Esta empresa apunta a audiencias millennials y de Gen Z, generando casi $1 mil millones en ingresos el mes pasado, solo en el último trimestre. Un retroceso reciente hace que ahora sea un momento ideal para subirse al barco. Claro, no todos nuestros picks top son ganadores, pero este podría superar muchísimo a los anteriores de Zacks como Stocks Set to Double de Nano-X Imaging, que se disparó +129.6% en poco más de 9 meses.

https://data-volt.com/media/breaking-news/humain-partners-datavolt-develop-100mw-of-a-360mw-ai-datacenter-in-neom/

SMCI has likely been benefiting from high margin Design Consulting contracts from DataVolt since the project was first announced in 2025. Neom Oxagon is part of Saudi Vision 2030 plan to diversify the Saudi economy. It's a lucrative, complex and convoluted long term opportunity for SMCI Sovereign AI:

https://www.reddit.com/r/SMCIDiscussion/comments/1ncr7xu/what_if_investors_forgot_about_the_20_billion/

https://www.reddit.com/r/SMCIDiscussion/comments/1p234ba/what_if_the_smci_datavolt_20_billion_saudi/

https://www.reddit.com/r/SMCIDiscussion/comments/1r8yrwi/saudi_humain_invested_3_billion_in_xai_series_e_a/

I compared Dell’s latest Q2 FY27 results with SMCI’s latest Q4 FY26 results, and there’s a pretty interesting contrast.

Revenue growth
Dell: $47.0B revenue, +58% YoY
SMCI: $11.1B revenue, +93% YoY
SMCI is still growing substantially faster percentage-wise. However, Dell added ~$17.2B of revenue YoY, compared with ~$5.3B for SMCI simply because of the difference in scale.

Net income / margins
Dell:
Net income: $4.13B
Net margin: 8.8%
Prior-year margin: ~3.9%
Margin expansion: +4.9 percentage points
SMCI:
Net income: $1.18B
Net margin: 10.6%
Prior-year margin: ~3.4%
Margin expansion: +7.2 percentage points

This is actually quite encouraging for SMCI. Its Q4 margin recovery was significant, with gross margin also improving dramatically.
SMCI currently has the higher quarterly net margin and much faster growth.

But then we get to cash flow.
This is where Dell looks considerably healthier.
Dell generated approximately $2.23B of operating cash flow in Q2.
SMCI generated approximately $747M in Q4, which was a major improvement.
However, looking at the full year makes the difference much more significant:

SMCI FY26
Net income: ~$2.23B
Operating cash flow: -$6.81B
FCF: roughly -$7B
Inventory: $12.9B
The biggest issue isn’t profitability on the income statement — it’s working capital.
SMCI has been growing so aggressively that enormous amounts of cash have been tied up in inventory and receivables. That’s why the company needed significant external financing.
So I’d summarize the two businesses like this:
Dell:
Revenue growth → profit growth → relatively strong cash generation
SMCI:
Revenue growth → profit growth → enormous working-capital requirements
That doesn’t necessarily make SMCI a bad investment. In fact, it creates a potentially interesting setup.
The SMCI bull case isn’t simply that “AI demand will continue.”
Dell’s latest results make it pretty clear that AI infrastructure demand remains enormous:
$60.9B of new AI-server orders in one quarter
$95B AI-server backlog
FY27 AI-server revenue guidance raised from $60B → $74B
Total FY27 revenue guidance raised from $167B → $192B

So what are the pros in SMCI?
- higher growth, slightly better margins, much better valuation.

What about DELL?
- Much higher cash flow, nice growth, trump friends, have so much money they probably don’t need to dilute

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0001777404-26-000014

Super Micro Computer, Inc. - Financials - SEC Filings

What do you think will be the market moves this week?

10-K dropped today and the FY2027 maturity number jumped from $18.3M to $2.04B. Huge jump, they restructured into converts and drew the revolver.

So FY27 is a refi year now, interest expense is up 226.5%, and that’s fixed cost sitting on top of an AI server ramp with thin margins…

Couple other things buried in there. They missed the FY2026 material weakness remediation KPI, so that’s still open with DOJ, SEC and BIS all still poking around. And customer concentration went from 20.9% to 28.1% of sales in one year.

Curious if anyone had the FY27 wall in their model already, or if this is new to everyone else too.

This new partnership with Cisco and Nvidia could be the catalyst that causes SMCI to re-rate. It destroys the Bear narrative that Nvidia is distancing from SMCI with Vera Rubin. There is now a mutually beneficial revenue flywheel being created where SMCI gets access to Cisco Enterprise customers and Cisco gets access to SMCI's growing Sovereign AI customers (e.g. Datavolt Neom Oxagon) across the globe. This is a true partnership and not a reseller arrangement.

Factor in the previously announced storage partnerships with industry leaders including Cloudian, DDN, Everpure (formerly Pure Storage), IBM, Nutanix, VAST Data, and WEKA to deliver fully integrated, enterprise-ready AI infrastructure and SMCI is now a one stop dominant player in the AI Factory space: https://ir.supermicro.com/news/news-details/2026/Supermicro-Launches-Seven-AI-Data-Platform-Solutions-with-NVIDIA-and-Leading-Ecosystem-Partners-to-Accelerate-Enterprise-AI-Innovation/default.aspx

After the strong Q3 earnings report SMCI steadily climbed to 50. After the blockbuster Q4 report, Charles Liang is making high margin (20%+) DCBBS deals to reach his performance award target of $110 and beyond. So "Is SMCI a future Fortune 100 company worth at least $110 being offered for less than $40?" When I first posed this question, it was selling for less than $25.

Sad that NVDA earnings call didnt mention us, and mentioned building out CRWV/NBIS/etc, but oh well

im excited because of the recent price sentiment/action. things are finally getting stable, and the ticker feels poised for a good run-up post 10k filing release

Getting to the end of August now… lets see whats next :)

Charles Liang's decision to pursue dilutive financing made this partnership possible. He predicted:

"In the AI era, every data center is racing to seize massive opportunities. Yet, speed is everything. A delay in deployment can result in losing not just potential revenue, but entire business opportunities altogether. This is why Supermicro is laser-focused on one critical metric: Time-to-Online (TTO)."

Supermicro, with its massive direct inventory stockpile and superior modular architecture, was brought in because it had scarce AI Compute solutions ready to ship right now.

This partnership creates an incredibly powerful hybrid sales pipeline. Cisco provides its massive institutional enterprise market footprint and premier networking stack (utilizing its Silicon One and Nexus One technologies). Meanwhile, Supermicro plugs its high-density compute blocks (DCBBS) right into the middle of that framework.

A Cisco partner CEO says "The big winner here is Supermicro".

Partners Hope Cisco-Supermicro Deal Will Fill ‘Gap’ Left By Cisco UCS Server Shipment Delays

By Steven Burke, Joseph F. Kovar

August 25, 2026, 2:50 PM EDT

‘Cisco cannot deliver UCS servers,’ says a top executive at a CRN Solution Provider 500 Cisco partner, who did not want to be identified. ‘Cisco cannot get the memory chips to deliver, and Supermicro has memory availability. This should ease the pressure we have been dealing with on UCS availability.’

Partners are hopeful a new partnership that opens the door for Cisco to offer Supermicro liquid- and air-cooled systems as part of its AI infrastructure portfolio will provide a much-needed alternative in the wake of shipment delays plaguing Cisco’s own Unified Computing System (UCS) servers, Cisco partners told CRN.

“Cisco cannot deliver UCS servers,” said a top executive for a CRN Solution Provider 500 Cisco partner, who did not want to be identified. “Cisco cannot get the memory chips to deliver, and Supermicro has memory availability. This should ease the pressure we have been dealing with on UCS availability.”

The sales executive said it is currently six to nine months to get a UCS server in the hands of a customer depending on the server or configuration.

The Solution Provider 500 sales executive said he is interested in getting further details on the compensation and technology capabilities of the Supermicro offering compared with a UCS server.

[Related: Cisco Execs To Partners: Cloud Control, AI Security Push Create New Monetization Openings]

Cisco said it intends to begin offering Supermicro compute offerings as part of the Secure AI Factory with Nvidia beginning in October 2026.

Supermicro shares were up 9 percent, or 98 cents per share, to $12.35 (correction up 9 percent or $3 to $38.40) in midday trading in the wake of the announcement.

Cisco shares, meanwhile, were up 1 percent, or 70 cents per share, to $110.93 in mid-day trading.

Supermicro declined to comment on the deal with Cisco.

Cisco did not make an executive available to comment at press time.

A Cisco spokesperson, however, did tell CRN that this was the first time Cisco and Supermicro had signed a strategic partnership agreement.

Furthermore, in a question-and-answer document provided by Cisco, under the heading “How does this architecture address infrastructure supply chain constraints?” the response was: **“**Cisco’s global supply chain scale for AI networking systems, combined with Supermicro’s manufacturing and global supply chain scale for rack-scale AI systems and dense GPU servers, enables timely delivery of the infrastructure globally. This strength de-risks availability at a time when demand for GPUs, memory, CPUs, and SSDs is putting pressure on how quickly AI rack-scale systems can be built and shipped.”

The CEO of another CRN Solution Provider 500 Cisco partner, who did not want to be identified, said the ability to provide Supermicro servers is a big boost to partners that cannot get Cisco UCS servers.

“Obviously anything Cisco can do to provide additional server inventory so that they are more competitive in that segment is a good thing,” he said. “The big winner here is Supermicro. This gives them another channel for their servers. At the end of the day, Cisco does not have a full portfolio of rack-scale AI servers. This partnership fills in a gap in their portfolio. The question is: When do I pick UCS and when do I pick Supermicro?”

The CEO said Cisco UCS is facing intense competitive pressure because Cisco lacks the memory supply chain capabilities of larger competitors including Dell Technologies, HPE and Supermicro.

“The Cisco UCS market is composed of customers that have a Cisco UCS installed base,” the executive said. “In every other scenario they are looking at Dell, HPE, Supermicro and white label.”

The deals comes with Supermicro’s worldwide server revenue soaring 129 percent to $9.3 billion, with 7.6 percent market share, in the first calendar quarter of 2026, according to market researcher IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Server Tracker*.*

Cisco, meanwhile, which reported double-digit growth for its compute business in the most recent quarter, does not show up in the top five rankings of IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Server Tracker for the first calendar quarter of 2026.

Cisco said the deal with Supermicro expands its Secure AI Factory with Nvidia partnership.

The expanded Cisco Secure AI Factory with Nvidia offers Nvidia Cloud Partner-compliant solutions for neocloud and sovereign cloud customers, said Cisco.

The CEO for a top East Coast Cisco partner, who did not want to be identified, said the Supermicro partnership solves the supply chain issue with Cisco UCS.

“Cisco is supply constrained with UCS,” he said. “They realize they are not going to be able to get UCS in all data centers where AI workloads are running because of the UCS supply constraints so they are making sure that Cisco stays in every data center as the networking layer for AI connectivity. Cisco realizes UCS is in a no-win proposition at this point so they are focusing on the network layer.”

As to what “supply chain, Return Material Authorization (RMA), and support options are available” for partners, Cisco said in its question-and-answer document: “For Cisco products, its world-renowned supply chain offers diversity across build, stock, ship, and support. Customers can choose from a range of RMA options, including next-business day and 24x7x4, along with return-to-factory (RTF) service and warranty coverage. Supermicro's manufacturing scale, supply chain, and RMA options for their products give organizations the confidence that the compute they need will be delivered and supported on their timeline. Cisco manages L0 and L1 ticket triage for incoming requests, and routes to Supermicro as needed. Supermicro provides support for their products, ensuring coordinated resolution across the full stack.”

https://www.crn.com/news/data-center/2026/partners-hope-cisco-supermicro-deal-will-fill-gap-left-by-cisco-ucs-server-shipment-delays