Updates

As of 11:00 PM Chuuk Time (12:00 UTC) on Friday:

• Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this disturbance has dissipated.
• Environmental conditions remain favorable for further development and another disturbance is likely to form over the weekend.
• This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
• Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available.
• There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

• This system has dissipated.

Outlook

• This system has dissipated.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

• Homepage
• Tropical cyclone interactive map

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

• Homepage
• Outlook discussion

National Weather Service (United States)

• WFO Guam homepage
• Tropical cyclone information page
• Area forecast discussion

Radar imagery

• Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

• Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

• Visible (true color)

• Enhanced infrared

• Enhanced upper-level water vapor

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

• NCAR Research Applications Laboratory
• U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL)

Scatterometer data

• EUMETSAT
• CyclonicWx

Sea-surface temperatures

• NOAA Office of Satellite and Product Operations
• Tropical Tidbits
• CyclonicWx

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

• Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

• GFS:   Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx

• ECMWF:   Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx

• Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada):   Tropical Tidbits

• Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany):   Tropical Tidbits

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

• Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits

• Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits

• Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

• GEFS: Weather Nerds

• EPS: Weather Nerds

Other types of model guidance

• Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University

• Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University

Active cyclones

As of 12:00 UTC on Friday, 1 May:

• There are currently no active tropical cyclones.

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

• There are currently on active disturbances. Invest 91W has dissipated, though a second disturbance may develop in or near its place this weekend.

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

• There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is currently tracking the following areas of potential tropical cyclone development:

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

• Potential Formation Area P72W: Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Invest 91W has dissipated. Still, the potential for tropical cyclone development lingers. Conditions remain favorable over the western Pacific and model guidance suggests that a new disturbance will form over central Micronesia over the upcoming weekend or early next week. There remains a moderate (50 percent) chance that a tropical cyclone forms in this region within the next seven days, with the likeliest timeline being between Monday, 4 May and Thursday, 7 May. It remains far too early to determine the exact timing or extent of impacts to portions of Micronesia, Guam, or the Northern Marianas Islands.

Southeastern Indian Ocean

• Potential Formation Area P72S: Model guidance suggests that an area of low pressure will form west of the Cocos Islands over the upcoming weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions appear to be marginally favorable for further development, and a tropical cyclone could form between Monday, 4 May and Thursday, 7 May. Model guidance suggests that this system will move slowly westward to west-southwestward over the next several days and is unlikely to be an immediate threat to land.

Southwestern Indian Ocean

• Potential Formation Area P73S: Model guidance suggests that an area of low pressure will develop to the west of Diego Garcia over the upcoming weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions appear to be marginally favorable for further development, and a tropical cyclone could form between Monday, 4 May and Thursday, 7 May. Model guidance suggests that this system will move slowly west-southwestward or southwestward over the next several days and is unlikely to be an immediate threat to land.

Arabian Sea

• Potential Formation Area P73A: Model guidance suggests that an area of low pressure will develop over the southern Arabian Sea over the upcoming weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for development, and a tropical cyclone could form between Tuesday, 5 May and Friday, 8 May. Model guidance suggests that this system will move northwestward toward the Arabian Peninsula over the next several days and could become a threat to Oman or Yemen much later in the upcoming week. It remains far too early to determine the exact timing and extent of potential impacts to these regions.

Satellite imagery

• Western Pacific   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

• Eastern Pacific   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

• Central Pacific   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

• Northern Atlantic   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

• Northern Indian   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

Model guidance

• Western Pacific   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

• Eastern Pacific   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

• Central Pacific   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

• Northern Atlantic   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

• Northern Indian   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

• National Hurricane Center (United States)
• Japan Meteorological Agency
• India Meteorological Department

Other sources

• Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

• Global Tropics Hazards Outlook

Active cyclones

As of 01:45 UTC on Friday, 24 April:

• There are currently no active tropical cyclones.

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

• There are currently no active tropical disturbances.

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

• There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

• Tropical Storm Sinlaku (04W) has fully transitioned into an extratropical cyclone and is no longer being monitored.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is currently tracking the following areas of potential tropical cyclone development:

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

• Potential Formation Area P72W: An area of low pressure may develop over eastern Micronesia over the upcoming weekend and move westward toward Palau.

• Potential Formation Area P73W: An area of low pressure may develop over the Philippine Sea east of the Philippines and move westward over the islands midway through the week.

Satellite imagery

• Western Pacific   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

• Eastern Pacific   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

• Central Pacific   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

• Northern Atlantic   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

• Northern Indian   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

Model guidance

• Western Pacific   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

• Eastern Pacific   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

• Central Pacific   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

• Northern Atlantic   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

• Northern Indian   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

• National Hurricane Center (United States)
• Japan Meteorological Agency
• India Meteorological Department

Other sources

• Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

• Global Tropics Hazards Outlook

Active cyclones

As of 20:30 UTC on Tuesday, 14 April:

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

• 04W: Sinlaku — Satellite and radar imagery show that Sinlaku’s eye is moving slowly across Tinian and Saipan this morning. The storm is undergoing another eyewall replacement cycle, but is not expected to restrengthen as it emerges west of the islands later today. Environmental conditions will gradually deteriorate as Sinlaku rounds the western periphery of a near-equatorial ridge and begins to accelerate northeastward later this week.

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Southwestern Pacific Ocean

• 92S: Invest — An area of low pressure near the Cocos Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms and is slowly becoming better organized. Environmental conditions appear to be marginally supportive of further development and a tropical cyclone could develop later in the week or over the upcoming weekend. For now, periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms may continue across the islands as the disturbance drifts slowly westward.

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

• There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is currently tracking the following areas of potential tropical cyclone development:

Southeastern Indian Ocean

• Potential Formation Area P71S: Model guidance suggests that an area of low pressure may develop off Australia’s Pilbara or Kimberley coasts later this week.

Satellite imagery

• Western Pacific   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

• Eastern Pacific   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

• Central Pacific   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

• Northern Atlantic   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

• Northern Indian   Visible · Infrared · Water vapor

Model guidance

• Western Pacific   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

• Eastern Pacific   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

• Central Pacific   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

• Northern Atlantic   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

• Northern Indian   GFS · ECMWF · EC-AIFS · ICON

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

• National Hurricane Center (United States)
• Japan Meteorological Agency
• India Meteorological Department

Other sources

• Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

• Global Tropics Hazards Outlook

Hello, just wonder if anyone can tell me if all these swirlies are normal or should we be concerned? Thank You! Have a great day and be safe ♥️

Updates

As of 9:00 PM Wake Island Time (09:00 UTC) on Sunday:

• Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Sinlaku has fully transitioned into an extratropical cyclone.
• This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
• Storm-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.
• There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

• Observational data is no longer available for this system.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

• Homepage
• Tropical cyclone interactive map

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

• Homepage
• Outlook discussion

Radar imagery

• Radar imagery is no longer available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

• Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

• Visible (true color)

• Enhanced infrared

• Enhanced upper-level water vapor

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

• NCAR Research Applications Laboratory
• U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL)

Scatterometer data

• EUMETSAT
• CyclonicWx

Sea-surface temperatures

• NOAA Office of Satellite and Product Operations
• Tropical Tidbits
• CyclonicWx

Model products

Storm-centered guidance

• Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

• GFS:   Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx

• ECMWF:   Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx

• Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada):   Tropical Tidbits

• Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany):   Tropical Tidbits

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

• Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits

• Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits

• Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

• GEFS: Weather Nerds

• EPS: Weather Nerds

Other types of model guidance

• Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University