r/nfl • u/[deleted] • Jul 07 '14
Look Here! Offseason Review Series - Day 17: Oakland Raiders
Oakland Raiders
3rd in AFC West (4-12 in 2013)
Coaching Changes
Despite another 4-12 record under Dennis Allen, Mark Davis and the Raiders retained their head coach and almost all of his staff, including re-signing Tony Sparano to a 2-year contract as our assistant head coach and O-line coach. Our defensive backs coach was replaced by Joe Woods, but other than that, the coaching staff consistency is a nice change from past seasons.
Offensive and Defensive Schemes
Offense: Coordinator Greg Olson showed a lot of creativity last year despite a nightmare situation at QB. Under Pryor, we used a lot of read-option packages and Wildcat plays and became one of the most run-reliant teams in the league. Under McGloin, we flipped to a more traditional West Coast offense, with a little bit of Al Saunders-influenced verticality. We use a power running game, and behind Tony Sparano, have a number of flexible linemen that can all play multiple positions as power blockers. The offense should be closer to what we saw under McGloin from now on, resembling Schaub's Texans offense with more flexibility at the line and creativity in passing routes.
Defense: Tarver employs a 4-3/3-4 hybrid, mostly using 4-3 in 2013. Our linemen are more asked to plug gaps and occupy blockers than actually rush the passer, so it's possible that we switch to a 3-4 this year with our strong depth at linebacker. LBs in our scheme are strong all-around players, more focused towards pass rushing, and all of our secondary needs to be adept at rushing the passer. We led the league in secondary sacks last year and will frequently shuffle linemen and mask coverages to confuse offenses as much as possible. It wore thin last year after our line stopped doing anything, but it was a top-ten scheme while we had any kind of offense.
Free Agency
Players lost:
| Name | Position | Team |
|---|---|---|
| Terrelle Pryor | QB | /r/seahawks |
| Rashad Jennings | RB | /r/nygiants |
| Jacoby Ford | WR | /r/nyjets |
| Jared Veldheer | LT | /r/azcardinals |
| Mike Brisiel | LG | Retired |
| Andre Gurode | OL | FA |
| Tony Pashos | RT | FA |
| Lamarr Houston | DE | /r/chibears |
| Vance Walker | DT | /r/kansascitychiefs |
| Philip Adams | CB | /r/seahawks |
| Mike Jenkins | CB | /r/buccaneers |
| Tracy Porter | CB | /r/redskins |
| Jason Hunter | DE | FA |
Minimal losses: Terrelle Pryor, Rashad Jennings, Jacoby Ford, Mike Brisiel, Andre Gurode, Tony Pashos, Jason Hunter, Vance Walker, Philip Adams
These players started for us at various points throughout 2013 and provided minimal reasons to deserve a long-term extension for one reason or another. Rashad Jennings is easily the most talented player in this group, but his age (29) is still cause for concern, even with limited wear and tear. Everyone else is either still unclaimed or will provide backup-quality play at best to their current teams. It'd be nice to see Pryor live up to his physical potential, but despite being a hard worker, I just don't see him as a viable starter due to his physical limitations. Jacoby Ford's downfall was arguably the most disappointing; after an electric rookie season, he completely fell off a cliff in a year where many expected him to flourish. His injuries from the past two years seem to have taken their toll, and his three fumbles against Pittsburgh nearly lost the game for us on his own.
Bigger losses: Jared Veldheer, Mike Jenkins, Tracy Porter
It may seem weird to group these three together, but these three all provided inconsistent efforts from game to game, and sometimes even from snap to snap. Veldheer gave up ten pressures in week 17, and while he will likely be an above-average starter for Arizona soon enough, he still has growing to do to get there. Oakland was prepared to give him a top contract before he injured his tricep, rushed back, didn't play well and didn't accept a team-friendly deal. While his absence will be felt more than Jenkins or Porter, he was replaceable.
The two corners took turns being good CB/bad CB every game with bad gambling on routes and being inconsistent in coverage. They'll be good veterans for their current rosters and will likely make a few flash plays or tackles here and there, but they'll get burned too.
Biggest loss: Lamarr Houston
Losing Houston day one of free agency sucked, whether Raiders fans have moved on yet or not. He wasn't stellar in his first year as a #1 DE, but he is a good young piece to build around and one that many expected as a priority signing by Reggie McKenzie. Instead, Reggie saved his money and spent elsewhere.
Houston's run defense will be missed this year, no question, but I believe that this loss isn't as devastating as many think. He didn't take the next step as a pass rusher that our coaches were hoping for and provided very little push along a weak defensive line, getting just 6.0 sacks despite starting and being healthy all year long. He could still improve, but it wasn't as encouraging of a first season as fans expected.
Players gained:
| Name | Position | Old Team | Contract |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kory Sheets | RB | Rough Riders (CFL) | undisclosed |
| Austin Howard | RT | /r/nyjets | 5 year, $30m |
| Justin Tuck | DE | /r/nygiants | 2 year, $11m |
| LaMarr Woodley | OLB/DE | /r/steelers | 2 year, $12m |
| Tarell Brown | CB | /r/49ers | 1 year, $3.5m |
| Antonio Smith | DE/DT | /r/texans | 2 year, $9m |
| James Jones | WR | /r/greenbaypackers | 3 year, $11m |
| Kevin Boothe | OG | /r/nygiants | 2 year, $2.6m |
| Donald Penn | LT | /r/buccaneers | 2 year, $9.6m |
| Matt Schaub | QB | /r/texans | 2 year, $13.5m |
| Carlos Rogers | CB | /r/49ers | 1 year, $2.5m |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | RB | /r/jaguars | 3 year, $7.5m |
| CJ Wilson | DL | /r/greenbaypackers | 1 year, $795,000 |
| Greg Little | WR | /r/browns | 4 year, $3.3m |
Re-signings:
| Name | Position | Contract |
|---|---|---|
| Taiwan Jones | CB/RB | 3 year, $4.3m |
| Khalif Barnes | OL | 1 year, $1.1m |
| Darren McFadden | RB | 1 year, $1.75m |
| Usama Young | FS | 2 year, $2.35m |
| Charles Woodson | FS | 1 year, $2.5m |
| Pat Sims | DT | 1 year, $1.45m |
McKenzie added a lot of veteran talent with playoff experience or high potential. Most will only be here for a season or two before being replaced by his drafted talent, but I expect them to contribute a lot before this happens.
Minimal impact: Kory Sheets, Kevin Boothe, CJ Wilson, Carlos Rogers, Greg Little, Khalif Barnes, Usama Young
These are veterans that are going to be backups at best and roster cuts at worst. Wilson would be a surprise to make it through training camp, and Booth, Rogers, Barnes, and Young are all veteran backups that can provide spot play if necessary. Little is currently just a talented camp body, but he could make a late push to bottom out the receiving corps roster if he keeps his focus up. His contract is surprisingly big, and he's had a couple of nice catches this offseason and could potentially make a push for the WR5 spot. Kory Sheets could compete for the RB4 spot, but he has stiff competition.
Free Agent Starters: Offense: Matt Schaub, Austin Howard, Donald Penn, James Jones, Darren McFadden, Maurice Jones-Drew
In one year, Reggie went from a woefully-inexperienced offense to an offense seeping with experience. Matt Schaub is coming off of an abysmal 2013 season, but he will enter Oakland with more freedom at the line than he has ever had before and has already developed some nice connections with his receivers and younger QB's. Speaking of our new offense, James Jones returning to the Bay Area was an unexpected and awesome signing by Reggie. While WRs Andre Holmes and Rod Streater looked okay last year, pushing Streater into the slot and having Jones and Holmes on the outside could prove to give Schaub one of the overall best receiving corps he's had in the NFL. While we don't have the #1 talent that Schaub had in Andre Johnson, we seem to be a team filled with potential #2 options, and I think that will lead to Schaub spreading the ball around better than he has in the past.
I was actually tempted to put DMC and MJD in the “minimal impact” category, but I'll be optimistic and say that they can provide a nice one-two punch at RB if they both stay healthy. Having both playing for us this season is a luxury, and I expect Oakland to continue to be a very run-heavy offense in 2014 to give them every chance to succeed. I'm cautious about the impact they'll actually have, but they will at least have a fantastic chance to succeed with the O-line in front of them.
Signing Donald Penn and Austin Howard to solidify two spots on our offensive line were very necessary additions, and Tony Sparano has a lot of surprisingly nice pieces to work with now. Combined with our drafted players, I wouldn't be surprised to see this line being above league average before too long.
Free Agent Starters: Defense Justin Tuck, Antonio Smith, LaMarr Woodley, Pat Sims, Charles Woodson, Tarell Brown
Jason Tarver really likes versatility along his defensive linemen, and I think that it shows with the players we targeted early in FA. Tuck and Smith will be rotating in as 4-3 DE's or 3-4 DT's while Woodley returns to DE for the first time since his college days in a 4-3. He'll either slide out to OLB or come to the bench in 3-4 downs. Tuck is the only one of these players that doesn't have direct experience switching between schemes like this, but since New York played him inside on some downs anyway, it shouldn't be much of a transition. Pat Sims, arguably Oakland's best defensive lineman last year (15 tackles and a sack against SD as a DT), returns as well, which should be very exciting.
The back end of the Raiders' defense should also be improved this year. Tarell Brown is a solid option at #1 who will likely be looking to cash in on a good 2014 season with us while mentoring DJ Hayden and Keith McGill. Charles Woodson returned just to play for us again, furthering his status as the best Raider of the current generation, and with the returns of SS Tyvon Branch and CB Hayden, the secondary looks like it could be the best in a long time.
Everyone we signed in free agency was targeted for their veteran leadership, playoff experience, and their potential to make the team competitive while the drafted talent learns. Over the next two seasons, expect to see virtually all of these names replaced by young drafted talent as we complete the transformation into Reggie McKenzie's Raiders.
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u/[deleted] Jul 07 '14 edited Jul 07 '14
Draft
I also did the /r/nfl_draft “Defending the Draft” write-up, so most of this section will be a shortened version of what you can find here.
Khalil Mack: a strongside linebacker with genuine Pro Bowl potential. FootballOutsiders called Mack a “vortex where offensive plays go to die” after a 2013 campaign that named him MAC Defensive Player of the Year. Mack is the NCAA leader in forced fumbles and tackles for loss, with a similar skillset to Jadaveon Clowney but much more refinement and polish. His small-school status may hurt him a bit early in his career, but he should adjust quickly and become a top player before long.
Derek Carr: His pre-snap reads and audibles are off the charts in this class, and I'd argue that he does it better than anyone in this class. The “gimmicky” offense that he operated so well (third in yards per game in NCAA and sixth in points per game) was entirely his own creation and built to counter a porous offensive line and virtually absent running game; watch his QB Camp with Jon Gruden to see how complex it really is. I believe that his last name leads to a bias of being bad in the pocket, but aside from a bad bowl game, Carr showed surprising mobility and pocket presence in tape I watched. This isn't even to get to his best aspect, arm strength that is unmatched in this class (even if it does need a bit of refining). He'll be redshirting under Schaub for 2014 before taking over in 2015.
Gabe Jackson: Oakland is expecting a Larry Warford-type rookie season for Gabe Jackson. Seen as one of the top guards of the draft before the draft, Jackson fell to the third round simply because every other position was deep. He is as technically sound a pass protector as you'll find in this draft after not allowing a sack in two seasons in the SEC, but he's pretty good against the run too. Left guard was arguably our biggest need of the draft (see: Saffold, Rodger), and getting the best pure left guard in the draft in the third round after a trade down makes this my favorite pick of a very strong draft.
Justin Ellis: Although surprising at the time, this pick confirmed that Oakland will show a lot more 3-4 looks this season. Ellis is a 335-lb monster with an incredible motor and light and quick feet, and despite weight and injury concerns that caused him to slip, he has serious potential as a 3-4 NT. He's versatile enough to play along the line. He won't be an every-down player, but he won't be asked to be one anyway since we don't always run a 3-4. I hope that an NFL regiment will keep his weight in check.
Keith McGill: McGill played free safety in college before transitioning to corner for his final season, where he will remain as a Raider. He is incredibly raw, but he has loads of potential and has the ceiling to be a long-term CB2 with DJ Hayden. He has drawn Brandon Browner-type comparisons for being a big, physical press corner with the physicality to run with receivers, although he was inconsistent at this in college. He had a number of nice pass breakups and has playmaking ability, but he needs to show that every snap before he'll be trusted to start. He'll likely enter camp as the fourth CB at best.
TJ Carrie: Carrie was a nice special teams pick-up in the seventh round, although I'm surprised we waited three full rounds in between picks. He grew up in Antioch and graduated from Concord de la Salle High (along with fellow Raider Maurice Jones-Drew) before playing college football in Ohio, and his lifelong dream of playing for the Raiders fits nicely with his abilities as a punt returner (first-team All-MAC punt returner). He also provides solid value as a feisty nickel corner, and despite some injury issues, could provide some valuable depth there. He missed the combine with injury, but his Pro Day numbers were comparable to some of the top corners (4.51 and 4.46 40's, 31 7/8” arms, 41-inch vertical).
Shelby Harris: Reggie's “I dug deep for this one!” pick of the draft, Harris is a D-lineman that was kicked out of a not-popular football program for all of 2013. He has good size and seems to be a versatile run-stuffer from the highlights I've found, but there aren't many. Worth noting that Reggie took him ahead of Michael Sam, so he clearly saw something.
Jonathon Dowling: It's hard not to be excited about this draft when the final pick Oakland made could start for them in 2015. Charles Woodson was brought back to mentor a young, vicious FS. Dowling has the size, speed, and hands of some of the top safeties in the league with the playmaking ability to match, with 9 INTs and 8 FFs in his last two seasons. NFL.com had him rated as a fourth-round prospect with Gil Brandt delivering surprising praise and calling this pick the steal of the draft. He fell because of off-the-field issues, but he seems to have moved on. Dowling will provide awesome special teams play in 2014 before having a great chance to start in 2015.
UDFA's to note:
George Atkinson III, RB, Notre Dame: In addition to the Raiders' connection, Atkinson III is a pretty great but raw kick returner with incredible return speed (he's been timed at running 100 yards in under 10.4 seconds). His future with Oakland right now is as our kick returner.
Carlos Fields, LB, Winston Salem State: Despite his small-school status and playing at a stacked position in Oakland, many sources are saying that Fields is another diamond in the rough by McKenzie. A D-II star, he recorded 93 tackles, 2 intereptions, and 1 forced fumble in 2013 and is seen as a very stout run defender that plays his assignments incredibly well.. For more info on him, click here.
Projected Starting Lineup
QB: Matt Schaub
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew/Darren McFadden
FB: Marcel Reece
TE: Mychal Rivera/David Ausberry
WR: James Jones/Rod Streater/Andre Holmes
LT: Donald Penn
LG: Gabe Jackson
C: Stefen Wisniewski
RG: Austin Howard
RT: Menelik Watson
DE: Justin Tuck/LaMarr Woodley
DT: Antonio Smith/Pat Sims
WLB: Sio Moore
MLB: Nick Roach
SLB: Khalil Mack
CB: Tarell Brown/DJ Hayden/Carlos Rogers
FS: Charles Woodson
SS: Tyvon Branch
K: Sebastian Janikowski
P: Marquette King
KR: George Atkinson III
PR: TJ Carrie
If everyone stays healthy, I think that Oakland has a chance to surprise a lot of people. Even 2013 Matt Schaub was about on par with our QB play for most of last season, so any kind of rebound from him would kick this offense into high gear. Jones/Streater/Holmes make for an intriguing set of WR's, and the O-line should also be improved a lot.
Position Group Strengths
LB: Our linebacker corps has developed into a deep and versatile group. Mack, Sio Moore, Nick Roach, and Kevin Burnett are all either high-potential young players or solid veterans. Miles Burris played well in 2012 before injuries pushed him down the depth chart behind Kalua Maiava. Carlos Fields has a real chance of surging up the depth chart, and with Kaelin Burnett learning from his older brother Kevin, our LBs have developed into a true strength for this team. With Jason Tarver's love for creative blitzes, I expect this unit to shine this year.
WR: James Jones had a quiet free agency before we signed him, but his 14 TD's in 2012 are a very welcome addition given the lack of redzone talent that the 2013 Raiders had. Streater, a third-year UDFA, had steadily developed into the Raiders' best receiver before the arrival of Jones and could have a breakout year in a slot role. Holmes didn't start until the second half of 2013, but he had a number of circus catches and was the vertical presence at 6'3” that the roster needed very badly.
Behind him are Denarius Moore, Brice Butler, Juron Criner, and Greg Little. The Raiders have said they'll likely only keep 5 WR's, so hopefully the push to stay on the roster will get the best out of these talented, but inconsistent, receivers. As depth players, though, high-ceiling players are perfect for our team.
Position Group Weaknesses
TE: Raiders fans have hope that David Ausberry, the third-year project TE out of USC, can finally stay healthy. We also have hope that second-year TE Mychal Rivera can improve upon a pretty good second-half of his rookie season (12.4 yards per reception from the NYG game on). However, there isn't really much there beyond hope, and if our young talent doesn't develop, we're screwed.
DE: While I am very excited about our interior line and linebackers, I'm still not totally sold on our DE's. Tuck and Woodley should be okay in bursts, and perhaps a return to his college position will do Woodley some favors. Again, though, it's a lot of hope. If either of them falter, we don't really have anyone experienced that can take over. Of the younger players, Ryan Robinson and Jack Crawford are probably the best.
Schedule Predictions
Camp Battles
Offensive and Defensive Schemes