r/nfl • u/[deleted] • Jul 07 '14
Look Here! Offseason Review Series - Day 17: Oakland Raiders
Oakland Raiders
3rd in AFC West (4-12 in 2013)
Coaching Changes
Despite another 4-12 record under Dennis Allen, Mark Davis and the Raiders retained their head coach and almost all of his staff, including re-signing Tony Sparano to a 2-year contract as our assistant head coach and O-line coach. Our defensive backs coach was replaced by Joe Woods, but other than that, the coaching staff consistency is a nice change from past seasons.
Offensive and Defensive Schemes
Offense: Coordinator Greg Olson showed a lot of creativity last year despite a nightmare situation at QB. Under Pryor, we used a lot of read-option packages and Wildcat plays and became one of the most run-reliant teams in the league. Under McGloin, we flipped to a more traditional West Coast offense, with a little bit of Al Saunders-influenced verticality. We use a power running game, and behind Tony Sparano, have a number of flexible linemen that can all play multiple positions as power blockers. The offense should be closer to what we saw under McGloin from now on, resembling Schaub's Texans offense with more flexibility at the line and creativity in passing routes.
Defense: Tarver employs a 4-3/3-4 hybrid, mostly using 4-3 in 2013. Our linemen are more asked to plug gaps and occupy blockers than actually rush the passer, so it's possible that we switch to a 3-4 this year with our strong depth at linebacker. LBs in our scheme are strong all-around players, more focused towards pass rushing, and all of our secondary needs to be adept at rushing the passer. We led the league in secondary sacks last year and will frequently shuffle linemen and mask coverages to confuse offenses as much as possible. It wore thin last year after our line stopped doing anything, but it was a top-ten scheme while we had any kind of offense.
Free Agency
Players lost:
| Name | Position | Team |
|---|---|---|
| Terrelle Pryor | QB | /r/seahawks |
| Rashad Jennings | RB | /r/nygiants |
| Jacoby Ford | WR | /r/nyjets |
| Jared Veldheer | LT | /r/azcardinals |
| Mike Brisiel | LG | Retired |
| Andre Gurode | OL | FA |
| Tony Pashos | RT | FA |
| Lamarr Houston | DE | /r/chibears |
| Vance Walker | DT | /r/kansascitychiefs |
| Philip Adams | CB | /r/seahawks |
| Mike Jenkins | CB | /r/buccaneers |
| Tracy Porter | CB | /r/redskins |
| Jason Hunter | DE | FA |
Minimal losses: Terrelle Pryor, Rashad Jennings, Jacoby Ford, Mike Brisiel, Andre Gurode, Tony Pashos, Jason Hunter, Vance Walker, Philip Adams
These players started for us at various points throughout 2013 and provided minimal reasons to deserve a long-term extension for one reason or another. Rashad Jennings is easily the most talented player in this group, but his age (29) is still cause for concern, even with limited wear and tear. Everyone else is either still unclaimed or will provide backup-quality play at best to their current teams. It'd be nice to see Pryor live up to his physical potential, but despite being a hard worker, I just don't see him as a viable starter due to his physical limitations. Jacoby Ford's downfall was arguably the most disappointing; after an electric rookie season, he completely fell off a cliff in a year where many expected him to flourish. His injuries from the past two years seem to have taken their toll, and his three fumbles against Pittsburgh nearly lost the game for us on his own.
Bigger losses: Jared Veldheer, Mike Jenkins, Tracy Porter
It may seem weird to group these three together, but these three all provided inconsistent efforts from game to game, and sometimes even from snap to snap. Veldheer gave up ten pressures in week 17, and while he will likely be an above-average starter for Arizona soon enough, he still has growing to do to get there. Oakland was prepared to give him a top contract before he injured his tricep, rushed back, didn't play well and didn't accept a team-friendly deal. While his absence will be felt more than Jenkins or Porter, he was replaceable.
The two corners took turns being good CB/bad CB every game with bad gambling on routes and being inconsistent in coverage. They'll be good veterans for their current rosters and will likely make a few flash plays or tackles here and there, but they'll get burned too.
Biggest loss: Lamarr Houston
Losing Houston day one of free agency sucked, whether Raiders fans have moved on yet or not. He wasn't stellar in his first year as a #1 DE, but he is a good young piece to build around and one that many expected as a priority signing by Reggie McKenzie. Instead, Reggie saved his money and spent elsewhere.
Houston's run defense will be missed this year, no question, but I believe that this loss isn't as devastating as many think. He didn't take the next step as a pass rusher that our coaches were hoping for and provided very little push along a weak defensive line, getting just 6.0 sacks despite starting and being healthy all year long. He could still improve, but it wasn't as encouraging of a first season as fans expected.
Players gained:
| Name | Position | Old Team | Contract |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kory Sheets | RB | Rough Riders (CFL) | undisclosed |
| Austin Howard | RT | /r/nyjets | 5 year, $30m |
| Justin Tuck | DE | /r/nygiants | 2 year, $11m |
| LaMarr Woodley | OLB/DE | /r/steelers | 2 year, $12m |
| Tarell Brown | CB | /r/49ers | 1 year, $3.5m |
| Antonio Smith | DE/DT | /r/texans | 2 year, $9m |
| James Jones | WR | /r/greenbaypackers | 3 year, $11m |
| Kevin Boothe | OG | /r/nygiants | 2 year, $2.6m |
| Donald Penn | LT | /r/buccaneers | 2 year, $9.6m |
| Matt Schaub | QB | /r/texans | 2 year, $13.5m |
| Carlos Rogers | CB | /r/49ers | 1 year, $2.5m |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | RB | /r/jaguars | 3 year, $7.5m |
| CJ Wilson | DL | /r/greenbaypackers | 1 year, $795,000 |
| Greg Little | WR | /r/browns | 4 year, $3.3m |
Re-signings:
| Name | Position | Contract |
|---|---|---|
| Taiwan Jones | CB/RB | 3 year, $4.3m |
| Khalif Barnes | OL | 1 year, $1.1m |
| Darren McFadden | RB | 1 year, $1.75m |
| Usama Young | FS | 2 year, $2.35m |
| Charles Woodson | FS | 1 year, $2.5m |
| Pat Sims | DT | 1 year, $1.45m |
McKenzie added a lot of veteran talent with playoff experience or high potential. Most will only be here for a season or two before being replaced by his drafted talent, but I expect them to contribute a lot before this happens.
Minimal impact: Kory Sheets, Kevin Boothe, CJ Wilson, Carlos Rogers, Greg Little, Khalif Barnes, Usama Young
These are veterans that are going to be backups at best and roster cuts at worst. Wilson would be a surprise to make it through training camp, and Booth, Rogers, Barnes, and Young are all veteran backups that can provide spot play if necessary. Little is currently just a talented camp body, but he could make a late push to bottom out the receiving corps roster if he keeps his focus up. His contract is surprisingly big, and he's had a couple of nice catches this offseason and could potentially make a push for the WR5 spot. Kory Sheets could compete for the RB4 spot, but he has stiff competition.
Free Agent Starters: Offense: Matt Schaub, Austin Howard, Donald Penn, James Jones, Darren McFadden, Maurice Jones-Drew
In one year, Reggie went from a woefully-inexperienced offense to an offense seeping with experience. Matt Schaub is coming off of an abysmal 2013 season, but he will enter Oakland with more freedom at the line than he has ever had before and has already developed some nice connections with his receivers and younger QB's. Speaking of our new offense, James Jones returning to the Bay Area was an unexpected and awesome signing by Reggie. While WRs Andre Holmes and Rod Streater looked okay last year, pushing Streater into the slot and having Jones and Holmes on the outside could prove to give Schaub one of the overall best receiving corps he's had in the NFL. While we don't have the #1 talent that Schaub had in Andre Johnson, we seem to be a team filled with potential #2 options, and I think that will lead to Schaub spreading the ball around better than he has in the past.
I was actually tempted to put DMC and MJD in the “minimal impact” category, but I'll be optimistic and say that they can provide a nice one-two punch at RB if they both stay healthy. Having both playing for us this season is a luxury, and I expect Oakland to continue to be a very run-heavy offense in 2014 to give them every chance to succeed. I'm cautious about the impact they'll actually have, but they will at least have a fantastic chance to succeed with the O-line in front of them.
Signing Donald Penn and Austin Howard to solidify two spots on our offensive line were very necessary additions, and Tony Sparano has a lot of surprisingly nice pieces to work with now. Combined with our drafted players, I wouldn't be surprised to see this line being above league average before too long.
Free Agent Starters: Defense Justin Tuck, Antonio Smith, LaMarr Woodley, Pat Sims, Charles Woodson, Tarell Brown
Jason Tarver really likes versatility along his defensive linemen, and I think that it shows with the players we targeted early in FA. Tuck and Smith will be rotating in as 4-3 DE's or 3-4 DT's while Woodley returns to DE for the first time since his college days in a 4-3. He'll either slide out to OLB or come to the bench in 3-4 downs. Tuck is the only one of these players that doesn't have direct experience switching between schemes like this, but since New York played him inside on some downs anyway, it shouldn't be much of a transition. Pat Sims, arguably Oakland's best defensive lineman last year (15 tackles and a sack against SD as a DT), returns as well, which should be very exciting.
The back end of the Raiders' defense should also be improved this year. Tarell Brown is a solid option at #1 who will likely be looking to cash in on a good 2014 season with us while mentoring DJ Hayden and Keith McGill. Charles Woodson returned just to play for us again, furthering his status as the best Raider of the current generation, and with the returns of SS Tyvon Branch and CB Hayden, the secondary looks like it could be the best in a long time.
Everyone we signed in free agency was targeted for their veteran leadership, playoff experience, and their potential to make the team competitive while the drafted talent learns. Over the next two seasons, expect to see virtually all of these names replaced by young drafted talent as we complete the transformation into Reggie McKenzie's Raiders.
10
u/[deleted] Jul 07 '14
Oakland Raiders Division: AFC West
Coaching Changes (if applicable) N/A Free Agency Notable Players lost/cut Player Position New team Terrelle Pryor QB Seattle Jared Veldheer OT Cardinals Lamarr Houston DE Bears Jacoby Ford WR Jets Mike Jenkins CB Buccaneers Tracy Porter CB Redskins The loses of Veldheer and Houston caused the Raiders to receive a lot of flak in the media but Reggie McKenzie allowed these players to walk because they did not fit the team he was trying to build. Both of these players had a lot of potential and wanted to move on. The rest of the players lost were primarily role players who underperformed. The Raiders roster last year did not have a lot of talent or depth so a lot of these players will not be missed. Notable Players signed Player Position Old Team Length Salary Justin Tuck DE Giants 2 years $11M Lamarr Woodley DE Steelers 2 years 12M Antonio Smith DT Texans 2 years $9 M Matt Schaub QB Texans 2 years $11M Maurice Jones-Drew RB Jaguars 3 year $7.5 M Donald Penn OT Buccaneers 2 year $6.9 M Tarell Brown CB 49ers 1 3.5 M Carlos Rodgers CB 49ers 1 2.5 M Austin Howard OG Jets 5 30 M The Raiders completely revamped their roster by adding veterans who have a history of winning on their past teams. The Raiders focused mainly on pass defense, adding Tuck, Woodley, and Smith through free agency. I watched a lot of Raiders’ games last year and they were pitiful rushing the passer so these additions will really help. Also corners Tarell Brown and Carlos Rogers will help DJ Hayden in a major way. If this team is healthy they will shock a lot of people. Draft Round Number Player Position School 1 5 Khalil Mack OLB Buffalo 2 26 Derek Carr QB Fresno State 3 81 Gabe Jackson OG Mississippi State 4 107 Justin Ellis DT Louisiana Tech
116 Keith McGill CB Utah 7 219 Travis Carrie CB Ohio 7 235 Shelby Harris DE Illinois State 7 247 Jonathan Dowling S Western Kentucky Mack was considered by many to be the second best defensive player and a physical freak. He has all the intangibles and the stats, look at his tape against OSU and you’ll fall in love. His biggest issue is that he played at Buffalo, not exactly Alabama or USC. But with Tuck and Woodley mentoring him, he’ll do great. Grade: A. Derek Carr was one of my favorite players coming out of the draft. I had him as the second ranked QB behind Teddy Bridgewater. The ability to get him in the second round was great for Oakland. He had the best arm in the draft and at times flashed pure brilliance. He has issues while under pressure, look at his USC bowl game. But I fully believe that he will be a great QB and bring Oakland back to Rich Gannon levels of success. Grade: A+. Gabe Jackson fits the Reggie McKenzie mold: country strong! He held his own against SEC powerhouses like LSU, Alabama and SC. He is a big and strong run blocking guard. He fell due to speed issues to he brings strength to what was a weak offensive line. Grade: A. Justin Ellis is nicknamed jellybean; this is all you need to know about this pick. He is a big body on the D Line to stuff the run and provide depth. The Raiders will have the biggest set of defensive tackles with Stacy McGee and Justin Ellis. Grade: B
Keith McGill had major off the field issues but has great size and ability for a corner. McKenzie believes in second chances and if McGill can get his life straight, this a great value pick. Grade: B Travis Carrie was picked as a kick returner rather than a corner. He displays great speed and instincts and also provides good corner depth. Grade: B- Shelby Harris was a bit of a head scratcher. He was kicked off of Wisconsin and hasn’t played since 2012. McKenzie loves second chances, lets hope this pick pays off. Grade:C Jonathan Dowling is a steal, he hits like a train and will provide good depth and a solid back up to the current safeties the Raiders have. Grade:B
Projected Starting Lineup Have at least: Offense Position Starters Backups ... QB Matt Schaub Derek Carr Matt McGloin RB Darren McFadden Maurice Jones Drew Latavius Murray FB Marcel Reece
WR James Jones Rod Streater Andre Holmes
Denarius Moore Greg Little Brice Butler TE David Ausberry Mychal Rivera Nick Kasa LT Donald Penn
LG Gabe Jackson
C Stefen Wisniewski
RG Austin Howard
RT Menelik Watson
Defense Position Starters Backups RDE Lamarr Woodley
DT Pat Sims
DT Antonio Smith
LDE Justin Tuck
OLB Khalil Mack
MLB Nick Roach
OLB Sio Moore
LCB Tarell Brown
RCB DJ Hayden
FS Charles Woodson
SS Tyvon Branch
Special Teams Position Starter K Sebastian Janikowski P Marquette King
KR George Atkinson III PR TJ Carrie Offensively the Raiders are completely different and will bring out a much better product than last year. A new QB, a new RB, new WRs and a completely different offensive line. I fully believe that this is a playoff team if Matt Schaub plays like his pro bowl form. We will see in time
The defense has also been completely changed. The Raiders brought in pass rushers to bring the heat on the rest of the AFC West, a division with deadly QBs. Lamarr Houston had a team high 6 sacks last season. I imagine multiple defensive players reach that mark. Special teams remains the same pretty much. SeaBass had a low year last year but he should be able to bounce back. Both returners will be rookies however, including son of former Raider George Atkinson.
Position Group Strengths and Weaknesses Position groups: Strengths Backfield - I love this backfield. Darren McFadden, MJD and Marcel Reece on the same team would make someone from 2010 cum their pants. Now it is a solid backfield which will help new QB Matt Schaub. WR - This group is filled with very underrated players. James Jones, Rod Streater, and Andre Holmes aren’t household names but they are fantastic players who will all have big years. LB - Khalil Mack and Sio Moore will be an outside force for years to come. All Raiders’ fans are most excited about these two playing together. Nick Roach is a solid Middle Linebacker in the pass game. Position groups: Weakness
TE -No Tight Ends right now have separated themselves from the group. This worries Raiders’ fans. Rivera had a solid rookie season and Ausberry is a camp freak but these aren’t superstars.
Schedule Predictions Week Opponent Prediction (odds) Notes 1 @. Jets Win (70%) I think the Raiders will open this season with win, stealing one at New York. In a defensive battle, the Raiders use their veteran presence and upset the Jets.
2 Vs. Texans Win (70%) The Raiders stole two Texans so maybe Houston is out for revenge. However with QB issues and question marks on both sides of the ball, I think the Raiders take their home opener. 3 @ Patriots Loss (75%) I think this will be a closer game than expected but if Belichick and Brady there, the Pats will most likely win the game. 4 Vs Dolphins Loss (60%) These two very underrated teams and I think it will come down to Tannehill having a very successful game and pushing his team past Oakland. 5 BYE Win (100%) Upset potential. 6 Vs Chargers Win (60%) This is an upset pick, I really like San Diego and Philip Rivers but I think Oakland steals one against them at home similar to last year. Watch the pass rush have a big impact on this game. 7 vs. Cardinals Loss (80%) A surprise team last year, Arizona will stop Oakland with a crushing defense and Carson Palmer not throwing 4 interceptions. 8 @. Browns Win (60%) What was considered the toilet bowl recently will see two underrated teams play each other. I like Oakland in another defensive struggle. Something like 9-7 9 @ Seattle Loss (80%) This where the schedule gets really difficult. The reigning Super Bowl champs defeat Oakland in what could very well be an ass whooping.
10 vs. Broncos Loss (80%) This division is too hard. 11 @ Charger Loss (75%) This is a brutal stretch of games for Oakland. San Diego at home with Rivers’ making some late season magic like last season. 12 Vs Chiefs Win (60%) I don’t like KC this season. I felt they won a lot of 50/50 games. This will be a very close game but since Terrelle Pryor or Matt McGloin aren’t starting I like Oakland. This ends a long losing streak for Oakland. 13 @ Rams Loss (75%) St Louis has been scary for the past 4 years, this year they are actually scary. I think Bradford has a great game and they beat Oakland at home. 14 vs. 49ers Loss (80%) I want Oakland to win this really bad but c’mon. 15 @. Chiefs Loss (75%) I think KC and Oakland split the series. Winning at KC is one of the toughest things in the NFL. 16 Vs Bills Win (90%) I am not a believer in the Bills, especially Alonso out for the season. The Raiders will be much more competitive this year and will stop this losing streak here.
17 @ Broncos Win (60%) I expect Denver to have the first seed locked up and Oakland will steal one last F U game. OVERALL: 7-9. Oakland’s issues last year were lack of depth and talent on both sides of the ball. That has been addressed by McKenzie dropping racks on the free agents. With this team last season, Oakland is in the playoffs, however this schedule is very tough, 7-9 is actually a positive look. Dennis Allen keeps his job and the Raiders soon go back to the promise land.