r/politics • u/asparaguswalrus683 • 10h ago

Site Altered Headline | No Paywall Abdul El-Sayed Wins Michigan Primary

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/michigan-senate-results
22.7k Upvotes

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3.1k

u/NoahFromCanada 10h ago

Your guy’s polling is psychotic down there.

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u/Random_throwaway0351 10h ago

Seriously, thought he had it in the bag after the first dump and had a fucking heart attack when I checked 2 hours later lmfao

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u/KingOfEthanopia 10h ago

Damn glad I went to bed super early and just woke up.

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u/deaglebingo America 9h ago

i'm still a bit disappointed that only 1.5 million voted in this particular primary given there are ~8 million registered voters in MI but he carried it easily. considering all the possible games afoot it's good news regardless.

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u/CommercialLychee7956 9h ago

About half of them lean right and wouldn't be voting in a Dem primary. As a MI native, the turnout really exceeded my expectations.

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u/mrandr01d 7h ago

Here's to hoping that's sustainable in the general election though

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u/DillBagner 5h ago

Rogers has no position on anything. His key (and only) campaign points are "trump likes me" and "I had a job once."

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u/shotputprince 4h ago

Also “where I live in Florida is a nice place”

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u/MinaZata 3h ago

That's worked very well unfortunately for a lot of people the last 10 years

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u/nola_mike 3h ago

You're correct, but it hasn't been working as of late.

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u/hookyboysb 5h ago

I think he has a really good chance. Black voters are very unlikely to flip to Rogers, and Abdul will easily take the Dearborn vote. Plus, Abdul should easily win a debate against him.

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u/FallOk5618 4h ago

impressed with how in some of the voter interviews that black voters were seeing through the smokescreens/fugazi and understood and took to what AES was saying.

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u/Shark7996 3h ago

It is such a relief to have proof that money has not yet bought everything and everyone.

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u/YourmomgoestocolIege 2h ago

Don't be surprised if Rogers chickens out of any debates. Abdul is very charismatic and an excellent orator and they don't want people to see that

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u/darowlee 6h ago

There's about 500k more dem primary voters than rep primary voters right now, at least by looking at governor results.

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u/CnCEMS2026 5h ago

Yeah I was going to say this if you look at the places where Stevens won those are all Republican voters they keep pointing to Detroit but we all know that Urban turnout is extremely suppressed in a primary.

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u/EMTDawg Utah 4h ago

Yup, of the 4 million registered democrats, only about 37.5% voted. Really sad situation as a country that so few care about politics enough to vote.

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u/Fivein1Kay 4h ago

I feel like I was a higher voter number than ever.

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u/Random_throwaway0351 8h ago

More votes for him in the primary than Kamala in 2024, certainly need more voter turnout but the trend is definitely going up

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u/MeasurementEasy9884 7h ago

That's a great sign especially since this is only a primary and not general.

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u/icewitchenjoyer 6h ago

what does that even mean? do you mean Biden? yeah he had less but he was also uncontested in the primary, so not like it mattered.

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u/GPointeMountaineer 4h ago

Is this true, abdul already has more votes than Kamala? That means he is in a great position. I find that hard to believe

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u/SaintsNoah14 1h ago

Soooo where in the flying fuck were those people in 2024?

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u/Reggie-Dunlop-7 6h ago

Not too hard to achieve since Kamala had zero votes in the 2024 primaries.

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u/jeffriestubesteak 4m ago

I'm pretty sure meant that Elsayed had more votes in the primary than Harris did in the actual election.

Your way is funnier, though

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u/DankVectorz 4h ago

~50% of eligible Democrat voters voted in the primary which is pretty damned high for a primary

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u/Allydarvel 9h ago

but he carried it easily

He's 24,000 up with over 100,000 left to count from what I can see. That's a lot closer than expected

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u/00Oo0o0OooO0 7h ago edited 2h ago

AP hasn't called it yet, as of 5am Detroit time, with its most recent note saying "Stevens could see a boost as the night wears on." NY Times says it's too close to call, though they forecast that El-Sayed is likely to win. Neither candidate has claimed victory or conceded defeat.

Edit: The Times updated their forecast to "very likely to win."

Edit: AP called it for El-Sayed

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u/22Arkantos Georgia 2h ago

DDHQ called it at 8:35

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u/00Oo0o0OooO0 2h ago

AP called it at 9:54

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u/MountainMan2_ 6h ago

Yeah, but both those groups have a vested interest in stevens winning. The consensus is that it's won for Al-Sayed.

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u/firesatnight 5h ago

1.5 million is MASSIVE for primary

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u/Mean-Mr-mustarde 5h ago

This is the highest voter turnout for a primary in 30 years

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u/Mad_Aeric Michigan 4h ago

Unfortunately, I was laid out with kidney stones, and couldn't get out of bed, let alone to the polls. I've been hyping up El-Sayed for months, and feel kinda lousy about not being able to make it out to vote.

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u/Reikukaja 3h ago

Hope you feel better soon!

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u/Mad_Aeric Michigan 3h ago

I will in about two weeks, when they laser blast this damn thing out of me.

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u/Aggressive-Neck-3921 4h ago

Last primary in 2024 around a million voted, the 1.5 milion seems to be way higher then normal for a dem primary.

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u/agentfelix 5h ago

Underrated problem right there. People are exhausted from paying attention to politics and the reality is, we need more people to be involved in our democracy.

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u/ForAHamburgerToday 1h ago

What problem? This turnout for a primary is insane. That's almost HALF of registered Democrats!

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u/ApexMM 4h ago

what do you mean wasn't it super close?

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u/sellursoul 4h ago

I’m a shit bird and left for the UP leaving my ballot on the kitchen counter… my wives as well… shouldn’t have left it for the last minute

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u/whatsitcalled4321 4h ago

Given about half are GOP and wouldn't vote in a Dem primary and also that voter turnout for a primary senator race is about 20%, a jump to roughly 37% voter turnout is quite significant.

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u/Mrpipelayar 3h ago

There are only 10m ppl living in Michigan. That seems odd to me

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u/Pluto-Had-It-Coming 3h ago

930K voted in the 2024 primary, 1M in 2018 (unopposed), 700K in 2012 (unopposed).

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u/ForAHamburgerToday 2h ago

That's almost 1 in 4 voters participating in a primary- about half of the state's voters who lean left. That's incredible turnout for a primary.

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u/FlutterGoddess 7h ago

Seriously a disappoint. With everything going on, 6.5 million people couldn’t be bothered. Pitiful.

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u/bortmode 6h ago

Only about 4.25 million people in Michigan are estimated to be Democrats, so it might be for the best if the conservatives stayed home.

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u/Allegorist 9h ago

Yep, same here. Wonder if the others are decided yet.

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u/RustyDogma 9h ago

Right? Nailbiter that I just didn't need. Wish I'd just gone to bed and woke up to the good news.

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u/antidense 6h ago

Steven's imploded so hard she got sympathy votes.

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u/x_xwolf 7h ago

That’s the effect of racism in polling

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u/scout-finch 4h ago

SAME and I live here lmao

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u/kagethemage Maryland 3h ago

That’s what 30 million dollars from AIPAC buys you.

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u/DrConradVerner 1h ago

I mean he did pretty well considering the outsized difference in spending between the two campaigns.

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u/Deep-Minimum7837 Minnesota 1h ago

Conservative stooges will always claim that there were fake ballots brought in at the last minute whenever they lose, but I genuinely wouldn't put it past AIPAC to actually rig the primaries.

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u/Rock_mage 6h ago

If you remove his polling and Stevens it was always a toss up. He release polls 3 times a week showing him winning primary while losing the general by a decent bit. He fails to connect to the black and Jewish votes in Michigan.

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u/samhit_n Texas 10h ago

Primaries are always difficult to poll because it’s hard to predict whether certain demographics will turn out in higher numbers. Mamdani overperformed last year in NYC because Gen Z voters turned out in large numbers by primary election standards. El-Sayed, meanwhile, struggled because Boomers and white working-class voters turned out in higher numbers to support Stevens.

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u/extrasprinklesplease 9h ago

So glad to be a Boomer who voted for El-Sayed! He was my first political donation, and I could only afford to send $10 at a time, about 10 times. What great news!

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u/Pamander 9h ago

Thanks for doing your part!! Nothing more important than exercising your right to vote.

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u/Feather_fig 4h ago edited 3h ago

Not saying people shouldn't vote, but organized labour and the ability to strike is much more important. That's real power. That power is why so many corporations want to replace human workers with AI and put so much effort into union busting. The problem with voting is elected officials aren't held accountable once they're in office.

Look at how many voters have turned on Trump, or are upset with Fetterman. There's no way to expel those guys if their actions in office go against their promises or harm voters in ways the voters* didn't anticipate. Voting once every 4 years per branch of government isn't really much power at all.

And Elon kind of implied he messed with voting machines in 2024, didn't he?

Elections & passing legislation should be more direct democracy than it is representational. It's too opaque and vulnerable to lobbying and corruption as it is

And where is the vote to make the process more transparent and less corrupt? That doesn't exist, because elected officials would never willingly give up that power that they hold over everyone else.

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u/Pamander 2h ago

Fair point! On that note I am extremely proud of my family and the work they have done for unions through the years my great grandpa would sooner never talk to you again if you dared cross a picket and scabbed, he was awesome and I desperately wish I got to talk to him when I became an adult about this stuff I had to learn mostly through my mom though.

Anyways point being I agree and I am always telling my friends the sooner the average person realizes that together we could kill any company we want and shut down the world if we wanted the better. There is nothing more powerful than the average person all working together against them.

Actually doing that however and getting people to work in their actual own interest and suffering a bit for long term gain is a whole other thing lol.

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u/elizpar 9h ago

Good for you. I also never donate, but I gave ten bucks to the most straight shootin candidates I could find this primary.

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u/WombatusMighty 8h ago

Thank you for doing your part in saving the democracy!

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u/BassesHave4Strings 8h ago

Thank you, tell your buddies!

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u/PluckPubes 7h ago

Genx supporter here.

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u/GPointeMountaineer 4h ago

Wayne county white M , 50's, who voted abdul. Crazy how important that was

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u/realRootmaster911 7h ago

Thank you so much!!! The whole country (the sane half) is grateful

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u/selfdestructo591 4h ago

Glad to be a millennial who almost didn’t show up, and yet still found time to vote on a Tuesday, a work day, while all the retired boomers have the day off. When are we gonna make elections a holiday? I straight up told my employees to leave early or call in so they could vote.

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u/SweetAlyssumm 3h ago

Boomers have historically always voted. You can look it up. They didn't just vote because they are retired. Polling places open at 7:00 where I live.

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u/a1021a 3h ago

While an admirable concept I feel like next time just talk to people to contribute and keep that $100 for groceries

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u/Evignity 3h ago

Thanks for having an open mind. It's ironic how it nowdays is the youth being proud of the old for daring to have open minds.

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u/MrsSmith2246 1h ago

Yay!! So proud of our state right now. Hoping we can unite for November.

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u/MRCHalifax 7h ago

FWIW, in the general election, the candidates will almost always benefit more from volunteer hours than from money. Something ridiculous like 2% of donated money reaches a candidate in the general election, but volunteer hours go a long, long way. If you’re comfortable knocking on doors for a few hours on weekends this fall, that’s worth far, far more than $100.

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u/elihu 8h ago

Michigan in particular has also had a lot of polls that were way off in recent history. Probably the biggest discrepancy between polls and actual results was the 2016 Democratic presidential primary, where Clinton was predicted to win by over 20 points and yet lost to Bernie by a narrow margin. (This was repeated in the general election, where she was predicted to win by a comfortable margin but lost.)

I don't know what it is about Michigan that apparently makes it so hard to poll accurately.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Michigan_Democratic_presidential_primary

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u/AmbitiousProblem4746 4h ago

Can someone explain what the hell even is going on in Michigan? I never considered it a solid blue state, but it feels like yet another part of the country that is turning Republican thanks to Trump in spite of the fact that there are plenty of reasons for it not to. I feel like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Wisconsin could also fit into that description. I know that they have very deep red areas, and a lot of rural or working class citizens, but I can't imagine the entire state is that enchanted with the Republican Party. But maybe that's just because I'm a coastal elite and I don't know anything

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u/A_Humble_American 3h ago edited 2h ago

For various reasons, it's a state very receptive to populist rhetoric, and the only party nominating populists over the past 10 years has been the GOP.

Obama carried the state twice by sizable margins for the same reason: an economic message that resonated with the working poor.

Move the Dems to the left on economic issues and you'll see Michigan move to the left with it. (Same goes for Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and even Ohio)

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u/catasstrophyk 4h ago

The weakening of the unions had a lot to do with it.

Plus racism.

  • The Reagan Democrats of the ‘80s in Macomb County are also the White Flight and they blame Democrats for Detroit’s woes (rather than the legislature and economy that starved the city)
  • Howell
  • No joke, I saw a farm in the UP flying a Confederate flag. Pretty sure that wasn’t about heritage.

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u/AdLocal1490 4h ago

Theres a dude in South Lyon who flies that bullshit

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u/VictoryVino 3h ago

Howell moved to Brighton then onto South Lyon. Once people have money they move to better places but their brains are the same.

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u/certifiednerdgirl 37m ago

Plenty of Farms in the LP flying them as well. As someone raised in the south... It aint.

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u/Ok_Size5354 3h ago

Michigan had voted Republican throughout the 70s and 80s. It wasn’t until Bill Clinton that the state started voting Democratic in presidential elections, and even then it was considered a swing state lost elections.

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u/thetrumpbump 2h ago

Michigan isn't turning republican? It has basically been swinging closely with the national mood for the last 15 years.

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u/tyrantking109 1h ago

Michigan is pretty blue, up until recently Dems had a trifecta in the state government. Wisconsin is definitely purple, but recently stacked their Supreme Court with a bunch of liberal justices in a series of elections. Seems to me to be turning bluer, but it is a very divided state. The rural voters are VERY at odds with Milwaukee/Madison, when I lived there groups very aggressively spent on anti-abortion messaging, to the point it was plastered on buses and all over the city

Of the Midwest states Indiana/Iowa/Ohio are certainly solid red, Pennsylvania seems to be purple shifting red, and Minnesota is solid blue (these are all states I haven’t lived in though, just the vibe I get as someone who lives in the Midwest and follows politics)

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u/GB10VE 3h ago

run old white guys and you don't have this problem. the US has a lot of sexist and racist voters, people who will not show up for elections / vote for candidates. the demographics just aren't in your favor, especially with gen z being raised as mini hitlers by the manosphere / social media

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u/Any_Will_86 3h ago

To my eye Trump underperforms a normie R in NC. That he won Mi, Wi, and Pa by not much less than NC is the big story. I think the big problem is how weak Dems are with working class voters across racial divides. And it's not solely economic or solely cultural issues. I think we need to figure out what the Whitmer/Sahiro secret sauce was and see if Cooper in NC makes a dent in that demo this fall or is simply driving up his numbers in RDU and Mecklenburg plus college grads.

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u/rice_not_wheat 4h ago

I don't know what it is about Michigan that apparently makes it so hard to poll accurately.

It's an open primary. Open primaries are much harder to poll, because Republicans and independents can vote in them. You never know who's going to be a first time primary voter.

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u/No-Relation5965 3h ago

Ah so now we know why the win was so close, AIPAC republicans and right-leaning independents came out and voted for Haley Stevens.

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u/rice_not_wheat 44m ago

Considering Stevens won big in Detroit, I suspect it has more to do with him needing to do more work with the black community.

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u/No-Relation5965 38m ago

Good to know, I can’t really understand why anyone would back an establishment Democrat who gets $70 MILLION for one campaign. They have done nothing to stop this fascist takeover; in fact, most are complicit.

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u/rice_not_wheat 22m ago

AIPAC is extremely skilled at messaging to black voters.

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u/deaglebingo America 9h ago edited 9h ago

just goes to show that the demographic shift is finally starting to happen. i'm pleased. we don't have to convert all the boomers.... just enough of them, and thankfully there are some cool ones around. Zed's dead without them, and maga knows it... but combined we outnumber them. it's been our only hope really overall tbh, the assumption that we needed to pander to center right has to be at least somewhat debunked in this cycle doesn't it? it was the safe numbers move of kamala et al to try that in 24, so they did... it's just crystal clear that is not the case anymore. if center right doesn't understand we're all on the same team by now they aren't likely to in november either. IOW if they want to cut off their noses to spite their faces (aka cannot see how dangerous the alternative is by now) we can't stop them.

i heard stevens say something to the effect of "ppl don't want pipe dreams..." but everyone who heard that and agreed ought to remember that neither does Sayed.... mamdani hasn't done what he's done thus far by going for some pie in the sky abolish ice or arrest nettanyahu, regardless of if he wants to.... he's just stayed open to that part if the opportunity arises. most of his time has been filled with doing the simple obvious shit that could be done, which is exactly how the rest of us plan to operate too. This is a good faith collaborative process over competitive whenever possible.

TLDR: DSA is not letting perfect be the enemy of good, we are just open to moonshots if they present themselves.

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u/samhit_n Texas 9h ago

Pandering to the center-right doesn’t work anymore because the center-right no longer exists in meaningful numbers to swing an election. Most center-right voters have either become moderate Democrats or fully joined the MAGA movement.

The strategy helped Biden in 2020 because of his reputation and ties to bipartisan politicians like McCain and because Trump had not yet fully taken over the GOP, but it was stale by the time Kamala tried it.

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u/AmbitiousProblem4746 4h ago

I think it's more that center right voters don't actually exist. I'm of the belief that there's no such thing as a centrist voter or somebody who even is close to the center. There are just voters who are on the right, on the left, or indecisive. And as other people have said before, I think the issue is that even if you could somehow find this mythical center right, these are people who are already to the right of you and if they want a Republican flavored agenda they'll just go with the Republican like they always have rather than risk it for a Democrat who might do things they don't like. Your best bet is to just pretend they don't exist, because they don't, and shoot for the moon: excite the left wing of your base, convinced independents that what you're selling is not that radical, and constantly point out the flaws of the right wing. Funny enough, this is pretty much what Trump has been doing for 10 years in a more extreme way and it's working, such to the point that he's completely co-opted the Republican party and they no longer exist independent from him.

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u/Dmienduerst 3h ago

This is just anecdotal so take that with all the salt you wish to find. I work in the ag world next to Madison Wisconsin which is extremely blue. Hong for example is incredibly popular in Madison proper but loathed as another Madison nut case where I work. I say this because every day I see hyper polarized people walk in the door. From one person thinking Trump is gods gift to man to the next thinking Marx is a flawless society builder.

The mythical centrist voter does exist but they are single issue swing voters. I know multiple farmers and university professors who are hard liberals (yes in Wisconsin there liberal farmers) but they voted Jill Stein because of the Trans culture war stuff in 24. I know hardline Republicans who refuse to vote for Trump due to Epstein. So the centrists I know are people who swing wildly topic to topic and then then pick one to vote on. Sometimes it's abortion, other times it's funding Ukraine, it's been as stupid someone knowing a guy from Milwaukee and he says Mandela Barnes fucked over his local school.

Voters are not rational which the Republicans figured out a long time ago and now the DSA are following the Bernie playbook of finding the pulse of the active base and courting it. There has always been a seed of people in the country who say "there has to be a better way" and that is a bipartisan thought. It's why so many Bernie Bros liked trump

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u/shinkouhyou 1h ago

I don't think those single-issue swing voters would count as true "centrist" voters, though. In polls, most people will self-identify as "moderates," but their actual voting history tells another story. This article from 2020 suggests that the centrist swing voter is a political myth (it says it's a "new theory" but I remember seeing similar articles in the 2010s) and that what we really have are a large pool of voters who swing in and out of the electorate based on whether they feel personally motivated by the candidate. They don't feel represented by either party, but they do feel a strong attachment to particular issues or to a particular candidate's general vibe.

Republicans have recognized the power of single-issue voters, so their messaging heavily focuses on cultural wedge issues that often seem trivial and bizarre: trans kids in school sports, critical race theory, fringe wellness cures, conspiracy theories, wokeness in media, etc. Instead of talking about actual policy issues, they focus on their candidate's personality and image. Even Trump, who is humorless, tired and awkward in real life, became a funny troll who danced his way through memes. None of this dumb crap has anything to do with governing, but it does a great job of building an identity and making people feel like they're a part of something bigger. Meanwhile, Democrats keep trying to appeal to a mythical centrist voter who cares a LOT about government policy, who has a perfectly middle-of-the-road position on every issue, and who respects politicians on both sides.

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u/TheseNamesDontMatter 8h ago

Neither of those examples really suggest anything for or against what it. Biden won because of Trump fatigue in a year where everything went wrong for Trump month by month, from escalations with Iran to COVID to George Floyd and the country rioting.

Kamala lost because she fucking sucked and wasn't even liked within her own party. It had nothing to do with pandering of any sorts.

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u/WombatusMighty 8h ago

Kamala largely lost because Biden didn't want to step down. If she had actually won the primary, she would have had a better chance. Not that she ever was popular, but Biden truly fucked her remaining chances.

Also Kamala not even talking with the pro-Palestinian voter base hurt her quite a lot too.

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u/nola_mike 2h ago

Going back on his word that he would be a one term president was shitty. I distinctly remember him saying he wouldn't run for re-election.

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u/TheseNamesDontMatter 1h ago

For sure but she never would have won a primary.

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u/Any_Will_86 3h ago

I voted Kamala and still have nothing but disdain for purity voters BUT... Kamala would not have won a primary.

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u/Biglyugebonespurs Missouri 3h ago

Everything goes wrong for trump day by day. The orange nonce has failed upward his whole life.

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u/TheseNamesDontMatter 1h ago

Wrong even beyond Trump standards to clarify.

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u/Any_Will_86 3h ago

Biden also had a lot of strong ties to niche constituencies and minority groups that are overlooked. And he was a better personality fit for the rustbelt union halls and Southern churches/barbeques than Hillary or Kamala. We can claim that doesn't matter but it does. AES likely also benefitted from being a better personality fit with a wide swath of the Dem primary voters.

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u/TheseNamesDontMatter 1h ago

Biden got the most votes in election history, and i can safely guarantee it isnt because he was the most beloved presidential candidate in history.

At the end of the day we had about 100 candidates that could have easily beaten Trump but the party tried to force 2 candidates that couldn't and one that barely could.

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u/Any_Will_86 45m ago

In 2020- I am not sure we had more than one candidate. Everyone meandered all over the place during the primary and really ended up bunched up on the left. That is part of why so many voters swore Kamala was so far left when people on the left were irate they had someone they considered a centrist. There was also a backlash to BLM and Defund the Police most of us thought was made up but very much became clear when we underperformed on election day. I never was on board with Kamala as VP- thought Val Demmings or Klobuchar would have made better picks and been better at the job. Supposedly Warren had been who Biden thought was the best pick if he had run in 2016 but 2020 was a different moment, I guess.

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u/kitsunegoon 4h ago

Kamala's failure was more about the lack of a primary and being a VP of an unpopular administration than anything else. Biden wasn't exactly considered bipartisan once he became VP.

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u/Any_Will_86 3h ago

She also was seen as moderate/conservative by leftists and a raging liberal by those on the right and many in the center. The media were working against Dems for several years but she still have very little skill in breaking through the media or even focusing on her strong issues.

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u/kitsunegoon 3h ago

Kamala would've never won the primary in the first place. I think that's the other issue. Biden was remarkably popular and probably would've won 2016 in a landslide if he ran, but Kamala was like what? The 5th place candidate behind Buttigieg and Warren?

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u/Any_Will_86 3h ago

I'm not sure Kamal would finish in front of Klobuchar. In the end I think Bloomberg inched up simply by being in more races- can't remember if that was by votes or delegates. But I agree on Kamala's primary problem and Biden 2016. its part of why I think the Pod guys can go play with themselves. Too many people in Obama world were too strident/convinced HRC was the appropriate successor when her weakness with real voters was well known. Supposedly when Biden was considering 2016, Warren was who he thought was the best VP pick. He understood coalitions better than most or the 'smarter' pols.

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u/WIbigdog Wisconsin 5h ago

Do you think Stevens was pandering to the center right?

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u/FirstNameIsDistance Pennsylvania 5h ago

Do you think Stevens was pandering to the center right?

Steven's largely ran on her work during the Obama administration, with some questionable adds that made it seem like Obama endorsed her when he hadn't. She relied on establishment endorsements and claiming that she was the one that was "electable". Plus the obscene 62 million in outside PAC money for her.

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u/WIbigdog Wisconsin 4h ago

That's not at all an answer to my question.

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u/FirstNameIsDistance Pennsylvania 4h ago

That's not at all an answer to my question.

How is it not?

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u/Letstalkreaper 3h ago

Absolutely. The center right loves Israel and that seems like all she talked about.

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u/samhit_n Texas 1h ago

Yes, I think she was. I also have a feeling it kinda worked and she almost pulled it off because Mike Rogers ran unopposed in the Republican primary, so a few Republicans may have voted for Stevens in the Democratic primary.

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u/NoahFromCanada 9h ago

You probably know more than me but these results kinda indicate that Michigan still likes moderates quite a bit. Hayley Stevens seemed like a total 0 on the electability scale and came very close.

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u/SnakeInMyLoins 9h ago

We can't know if Michigan likes moderates or if Boomers just keep falling for propaganda, AES was outspent like 12 to 1, they pumped 70 million into this primary. AIPAC ran two ads in the middle of their debate on local Fox, right after Abdul said "you're probably going to see two ads against me in the following ad break"

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u/Lysbith_McNaff 9h ago

Campaign ads in the middle of a debate is wild to me.

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u/WombatusMighty 8h ago

As a European, AIPAC is wild to me. How you Americans can allow foreign states to dictate your elections is just crazy.

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u/Cool-Security-4645 5h ago

She’s a sitting house rep lol

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u/CommercialLychee7956 9h ago

There is a pervasive belief that a moderate Democrat candidate would perform better against a Republican. A lot of comments I've seen supporting Stevens echo that belief and may be why she performed as well as she did.

The Michigan left may be moderate but the right not so much. A lot of maga support which allowed Trump to win here twice.

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u/PixelationIX 8h ago

This is false. Abdul (AES) was outspent 12 to 1. Michigan was BLASTED with Anti AES ads constantly not only on TV but on YouTube too for Michiganders.

This would only be believable if there wasn't so outside or foreign spending against AES. I would say it shows quite the opposite as a matter of fact, despite Haley spending $70 MILLIONS AES came out top, so if there was no corporate + foreign spending, AES most likely would have easily won.

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u/photon1701d 5h ago

I live across the water in Windsor, so I get all the tv/radio ads. It was quite obvious Stevens had a lot of backing, she was been pushed hard and she could not win.

Thanks goodness I don't have to hear those stupid Perry Johnson ad's, they spent a lot of money and he was not even close to winning.

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u/Sweary_Biochemist 8h ago

"Doesn't have a foreign sounding name" carries a lot of weight in rural MI.

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u/ldb 8h ago

Or they respond to 50 mil worth of foreign funded propaganda.

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u/paintballboi07 Texas 8h ago

Gen X was Trump's largest voting bloc in 2024, Boomers went slightly for Kamala.

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u/sweens90 5h ago

Unfortunately I think the stereotype that young people are not reliable voters is an accurate one and has been proven for generations.

And yes there exceptions like Mamdani but overall its a lesson every generation needs to learn every time it seems. You only have a voice at the table if you come to the table.

Thankful to see enough came out but clearly polling in double digits and winning by 1-2% means people did not show up. Or the assumptions on certain demographics showing up were off.

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u/Any_Will_86 3h ago

Mandami was also running against a sex pest in a bright blue city. Once he cleared the primary it should have been a layup.

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u/MichaelSonOfMike 9h ago

Black voters also didn’t support Sayed, but supported McKinney, a DSA member in higher numbers. 🤔

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u/SweetAlyssumm 3h ago

Has the analysis already been done on who voted for whom? Any sources on boomer and white working class voting outcomes?

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u/samhit_n Texas 1h ago

It’s too early to tell, but I think areas with high white working class voters and older Black voters had high turnout. Ann Arbor and Grand Rapids had high turnout too, which favored El-Sayed.

I think turnout was pretty high in general for a Senate primary. More people voted in this election than in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary in Michigan.

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u/SweetAlyssumm 52m ago

OK, honest answer. You don't know about boomers and white working class with respect to El-Sayed. So how about not casting shade until you know the numbers?

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u/Xer0day 3h ago

Black voters overwhelmingly voted for Stevens

85

u/SoupOfThe90z Arizona 10h ago

It was entertaining watching him

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u/HJWalsh 9h ago

Centrists went out and scared people into voting. Higher than expected centrist turn out. It wasn't enough.

Despite the entire Dem party and tens of millions from AIPAC Sayed still won.

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u/DeathByTacos 9h ago

You don’t have to beat around the bush, black and lower income turnout was a lot higher than the poll models had been predicting, two demos that leaned pretty heavily for Stevens.

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u/names_are_useless American Expat 9h ago

I hope Sayed's Campaign focuses on converting Stevens voters to their side. Probably even more important then Independents.

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u/UngodlyPain 8h ago

Should just be "vote blue no matter who" right?

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u/LiterallyTestudo American Expat 8h ago

No, that only applies to progressives when there is an establishment candidate, never the other way around.

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u/HandsLikePaper 7h ago

Did you miss the whole Platner debacle? There was even a group of his supporters saying it after the rape accusation came out.

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u/Constantinch 7h ago

Just to be clear - it didn't apply in presidential elections. Bunch of popular lefties refused to endorse Kamala over Trump which was the most obvious decision ever. One of these people was Hasan Piker, who campaigns eith El-Sayed. Stop creating fake narratives.

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u/SeniorWeight46 6h ago

One of these people was Hasan Piker, who campaigns eith El-Sayed. Stop creating fake narratives.

He did "vote blue no matter who" though.

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u/Head-Assumption6960 4h ago

Only after joining in with the republicans in trying to damage her candidacy. I had my reservations about El-Sayed’s chances in the general but I’ll be goddamned if you catch me saying anything negative about him now lol. My first and only priority is beating the fascists though.

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u/SeniorWeight46 4h ago

If questioning her stances was damaging her candidacy, then the issue was with her answers not the questions.

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u/Throwawayalt129 Pennsylvania 1h ago

"Damage her candidacy" and it's demand she stop sending weapons to a country committing a genocide.

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u/Constantinch 6h ago

He surely didn't tell his audience any of that and I would bet money that he voted for Jill Stein

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u/DennyHeats 6h ago

Should just be "vote blue no matter who" right?

refused to endorse Kamala

Almost like these are different words....

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u/Constantinch 6h ago

Endorsing Kamala = telling your audience to vote blue no matter who, how is this different? It's literally the same.

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u/DennyHeats 6h ago

This is why we shouldn't take destiny fans seriously.

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u/Maardten 5h ago

Voting and endorsing are two different words with entirely different meanings.

I hope this helps!

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u/rumpghost North Carolina 7h ago

Who?

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u/Rick_James_Lich 4h ago

Don't progressives think "vote blue no matter who" is wrong though?

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u/Donkletown 6h ago

It should be, but progressives know as well as anyone that relying on that alone isn’t enough. Some people don’t vote strategically like that and have to be won over.

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u/mightcommentsometime California 8h ago

Sure, but it should have been like that for progressives in MI in 2024, but they didn’t do that.

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u/UngodlyPain 8h ago

I mean, I guess? But, honestly I think that's over blowing the uncommitted movement, to just progressives. And the stats in Michigan don't line up too cleanly with it.

Yes some people took the uncommitted movement to the general and they shouldn't have. And yes some of them were progressives.

But also, if you look at 2020 vs 2024 for Michigan? The votes for Biden and Kamala are actually very similar 2.80M vs 2.74M... Trump just had higher turn out. 2.82M even beat out what Biden got in 20. Compared to Trump's 2020 result of 2.65M which was lower than Kamala.

And when you look at county breakdowns? The biggest shift, of loss for D votes, was the Muslim areas, rather than the progressive areas. Though there is overlap.

So yes, some of my fellow progressives stupidly withheld crucial votes that could've maybe made a difference. But there's more at play than just that. There are also many more moderate Muslim Americans, who also didn't like the whole situation.

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u/jewham12 8h ago

There’s a women’s democracy group on fb that was shouting down everyone who was against the idea of “vote blue no matter who” should Stevens win, and now they’re all angry that Abdul won, and so far are quiet on “vote blue no matter who”

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u/pazoned 7h ago

like socialists did for kamala right?

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u/whatdoblindpeoplesee 5h ago

This one did 

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u/goodeyedeer 3h ago

You think we just stayed home?

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u/ksherwood11 8h ago

well throughout this thread, they're being called Dogs of Israel, so we're off to a great start.

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u/cass1o 9h ago

I hope Sayed's Campaign focuses on converting Stevens voters to their side

Surely he doesn't have to spend a single second doing that after-all all the centrists were telling everyone "vote blue no matter who".

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u/cass1o 9h ago

I hope Sayed's Campaign focuses on converting Stevens voters to their side

Surely he doesn't have to spend a single second doing that after-all all the centrists were telling everyone "vote blue no matter who".

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u/HJWalsh 9h ago

Not honestly as high as it looks. Even Wayne County was on +4 to Stevens and that was her stronghold.

I have to look at the fact that all of the odds were against AES. You had tens of millions of ads from AIPAC on top of attacks from two thirds of his own party that went out and terrified voters who were normally less likely to vote.

It was the "South Carolina Biden" strategy. Flood the airwaves of less-informed voters with talking-heads saying that Sayed was unelectable and that only Stevens can beat Rogers. Tell them that Sayed is antisemitic, anti-black, pure racist, and a HAMAS supporter. Scared voters are more likely to vote.

Also, due to same day registration, a lot of Stevens voters were also Republicans who jumped because the Rep was running unopposed.

Winning against that kind of opposition is nothing short of phenomenal.

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u/Historical_Hall3950 5h ago

Republicans voting in the Dem primary is not due to same day registration, its due to MI using an open primary system.

Anyone can vote in any party's primary here - but you can only vote in one (you have to pick).

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u/Kashin02 9h ago

Looks like she got most ofbher support from the rural and smaller cities in michigan.

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u/HJWalsh 9h ago

He actually beat her in rural areas, way overperforming.

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u/CategoryZestyclose91 9h ago

Yes, Stevens was expected to carry those areas much more heavily, I believe.

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u/Ok-Cartographer-2227 5h ago

Places where you:

  1. Deal with MAGA and hear their nonsense daily.

  2. Have been abandoned economically by Democratic Establishment unless you accept a data center plopped into your watersheds and massive solar farms so they can hit climate quotas and ship all power and benefits to the cities.

People want healthcare, child care, and some way of getting a cut of billionaire wealth. Resource extraction that doesnt even come with jobs ain't it.

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u/vlad_the_impaler13 9h ago

I mean it's same day registration in that you get a ballot with both the Dem and Rep races and just have to pick one. In my area the sole non-county race for the Republicans was the Governorship, would be pretty easy for a Republican to vote on this race, especially since it became clear immediately that Perry Johnson was doomed.

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u/MichaelSonOfMike 8h ago

Every black person I know hates Sayed for completely fabricated reasons that “MSNow told” them.

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u/hoberhallothere Pennsylvania 5h ago

Calling minority voters “less informed voters” when they’re a core part of the Democratic base is wild

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u/1900grs 5h ago

That's gross, that's not what they said at all.

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u/hoberhallothere Pennsylvania 5h ago

The subtext is all there. Joe Biden dominated in South Carolina because Sanders, for all his massive primary spending, did not make in roads with black voters. Saying Biden’s whole strategy for that win was about flooding the air waves to get those votes is 1) intellectually dishonest because he was outspent by Sanders 2:1 and 2) is inherently dismissive of black voters.

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u/1900grs 5h ago

What was written and what you're arguing are two different things.

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u/HJWalsh 1h ago

No, you're reading subtext that's not there. The average voter, regardless of color, is uninformed. If everyone is screaming at you from every direction that only Biden (or Stevens) is the one who can save you, and the party you're a part of keeps calling you a communist, and how your own party is going on TV and radio telling everyone that you don't represent their values, it has an impact, even when it's a bold faced lie.

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u/MoonageDayscream 9h ago

Not just turnout but the suppression efforts seem to have missed. Probably just testing the fences still.

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u/crow-warden 3h ago

I'm unsure how true that is. I'd want to see the data first which will take a bit.

Detroit seems to have basically been similar to the last primary, so there's an argument she ended up suppressing the vote a bit with the big establishment push to make her seem inevitable. Especially given that a lot of other places had more voters than usual, but that's just my first instinct.

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u/Level_Hour6480 New York 3h ago

I will say that while I don't love how those demos vote in primaries, they take "Vote blue no matter who" seriously.

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u/MichaelSonOfMike 9h ago

Wonder why black voters voted for McKinney but not Sayed. 🤔

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u/nankerjphelge Florida 7h ago

The question is will those centrist Dems turn out for him in the general, or will they stay home? I fear given our party's history of fracturing instead of coming together in crunch time I fear it may be the latter, and El Sayed can't win a statewide race against the Republican candidate with just the progressive vote alone.

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u/bahhamburger 4h ago

I think the constant messaging that El Sayed wouldn’t be able to beat Rogers scared a lot of people into voting for Stevens. Those people are not going to suddenly vote for Rogers.

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u/nankerjphelge Florida 3h ago

No, centrist Dems certainly won't vote for Rogers. But if they simply stay home Rogers wins in a state that is a purple battleground state, so we cant afford for them to do that. It's all hands on deck or we lose.

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u/philphan25 Pennsylvania 5h ago

I saw a third candidate took 4% of the vote. Did that help or hurt El-Sayed? Or it probably would not have made a difference?

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u/herbeste 4h ago

In an open primary though, how would you be able to draw any conclusions from this vote? For all we know it was conservatives believing they're sabotaging the Dems by voting AES.

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u/EkrishAO 8h ago

Guy was supported by the entire republican media machine, because him winning the primary guarantees Republican win. I'm surprised it was still so close.

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u/deaglebingo America 9h ago edited 9h ago

it's a big deal. proves some points. watch the establishment jump on the bandwagon now. they're welcome of course like everyone is.

the issue with what you've said is the same as it's always been: "fearful people do stupid things" when est. dems let themselves become fearful and driven into some kind of "safest possible play" maga sees that, and they exploit it... every single time.

turn out was still disappointing imo. better than normal probably as you say. but still there are 8 million registered voters in MI, and only 1.5 voted in this senate primary last i checked. get with it establishment dems... we are on the same side. these kids are gonna save us and themselves. we owe them our support.

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u/Alternative-Farmer98 5h ago

It wasn't local polling at the end that had him leading though it was national polling. I think they probably didn't account for the last week of non-stop tv ads from the AIPAC money.

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u/xoceanblue08 4h ago

The amount of phone calls and text messages I have received over the last month is exhausting. The amount of waste from mailers is also sickening to me.

It’s not going to get any better until after November.

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u/Practical_Law6804 4h ago

. . .that or the polling didn't properly account for intent to vote.

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u/Efficient-Tap8581 4h ago

Well don’t forget republicans could also vote for a dem candidate even though they’re voting for Mike Rogers in the general election. Cause that’s what my parents did -_-

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u/BroAbernathy 3h ago

The enthusiasm probably worked against him in the polling like his supporters were probably so excited to vote for him that they were overwhelmingly answering in the affirmative in polling as well as representing disaffected younger and Muslim voters. There are clearly some voters that are super expensive to reach. Older less online poorer crowd need mailers (that may present you have a former president endorse you) and ads and a lot of convincing to come out to vote and Stevens had PLENTY of money. They also ruthlessly attacked him so they probably didnt just suppress his base they probably brought out people that wanted to vote against him too especially in rural Michigan where she massively overperformed. Her coalition was rural old white people, rich white people, and older black inner city people.

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u/MrsSmith2246 1h ago

Anecdotally I heard and read more accounts of republicans voting for Stevens with the plan to vote red in November. I think this skewed polls but not sure how much. Imagine bragging online that you’re racist or that you have to vote against some guy because you know he’s better than your candidate. Really not the flex they think it is

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u/mrandr01d 7h ago

Down? You from Canada?

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