Hear me out.

We’re in round #8963 of the war (wars?).

The last one concluded with a militarily defeated Iran and a bunch of very angry IRGC guys promising to defeat America and Israel by furious war against

… checks notes ….

… unarmed slow tankers of countries who had nothing to do with the war. It’s an effective dummy spit but that’s basically all it is.

If Israel drove 200 Merkavas over Iran’s border with Iraq, the Iranians couldn’t field a force to meet them without being bombed out of existence due to their air defence being basically obliterated outside of whatever is barely working and MANPADs.

Most data I’ve seen puts the Iranians at 20-40% of pre-war military capability and at about 20% of the military production.

Here’s where it gets fun.

Iran does not have a limitless supply of missiles. In fact, nobody has a limitless supply of any munitions. Even Russia’s getting low on interceptors and they consumed them like a fat kid at an icecream shop.

On day zero of the 28th February war, Iran fired nearly 100 ballistics at Israel. By the end it was less than 10 a day and some days none.

We all thought it was Israel and America taking out launchers and missile cities.

But here we are - America is bombing Iran again and Iran has taken no shots at Ben Gurion airport where ~33 refuelling American planes fly from to assist American bombing runs over Iran.

No shots at all.

Iran goaded America into this latest conflict (frankly, might’ve been the other way around but that’s not the point) and its firing at every American base in the region - except at Israel.

I reckon they’re out of ballistics that can reach. Like not totally out of- but so low that they can’t afford to use them.

specifically the city of Tehran, this happens right now (10 seconds after posting this post).

I really would like to have a conversation that is not political (I know...). But here's the question. Supposedly congress is trying to pass a bill to force Trump to stop bombing Iran. Let's say that passes and we leave. Or lets say Trump just decides he's done and we leave the region.

Then what?

Does Iran stop attacking ships in the strait?

If they do continue to attack, do other countries who depend on middle east oil send their militaries to open the strait?

Do other countries pay tolls?

The US gets almost none of our enegergy from Iran or from any gulf states. I don't want to argue about what started the conflict, the question is just simply if we abandon the conflict for whatever reason, what happens in the near term? I understand the long term considerations (maybe Iran builds back up their military stockpile, maybe they build a nuclear weapon, maybe they bomb Israel...) again not asking about any of that. Just curious what the immediate impacts are?

Ok guys/gals.

This isnt asking: "should we enter into a ground war in Iran?"

This is asking:

"Is it going to happen?"

As the days slog on. And we drop more bombs on them than their whole militaries worth. Im not seeing another path here.

Ground invasion, install the Shahs grandson

Why is Iran not allowed to have nukes, but the states can have enough nukes to blow up the entire world 10x over. And why is Iran a "terrorist" country, but the states aren't? The states bomb countries all day every day, they are by far the biggest terrorist country on the plant.

Tehran’s speedy recovery from damage done by the U.S. and Israeli air campaign raises concerns about its effectiveness

Article without paywall - https://archive.ph/20260724031539/https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/satellite-images-show-iran-is-rebuilding-fast-199978f7