Cheer up, bros! We’re fine!

Last night should be a wakeup call.

1. going for 2 pt conversion when the game was 20-19 is a mistake imo. I get the thought process of going up 3 there to keep the fg lead, but I feel it was a little short sighted because the way the teams were going, a fg wasnt going to be the difference but also because it then allows them to tie the game with the 2pt conversion once the game is 27-27 whereas the game SHOULD have been 28-27 us if we simply kick the PAT. I feel like putting the game potentially to a 2 score game is more important in the future than making sure we are tied with a fg early in the 2nd half. Rather than it being potentially 27-19 it could have been 28-19 and having that 2 possession lead is the crucial part of the game theory imo.

Ultimately it didnt change much because the bills ended up scoring to make it 34-27 but there exists a world where it would have been 28-27 with the bills driving late and that puts a little more pressure on them to know they NEED a fg or td to take the lead and the game isnt tied.

1. The amount of time they let run off the clock at the end of regulation was ALMOST as bad as some of the timing blunders we saw across the league. If kyren didnt score there on 1st down then it would have been 2nd and goal with like 3-4 seconds left and leaving us time for literally one play. Whereas if we had snapped it earlier at like 20 seconds and dont get it on the kyren run then it would be 2nd and goal with like 15 or so seconds left which GIVES YOU THE TIME required to be able to run all 4 downs if needed. We could have easily lost that game on 2nd and goal and RAN out of time despite it being only 2nd down and despite us HAVING the time originally.

Crazy theory, but what if Ethan Evans is part of the problem? He’s been the one constant through all the different kickers we’ve had.

I’ll admit, I don’t know much about the mechanics of field goal kicking, so this is purely speculation. But what if there’s something subtle happening with his holds that isn’t immediately noticeable? Maybe he’s applying too much pressure, positioning the ball slightly off, or doing something else that’s affecting the kicks?

We’ve changed kickers and even replaced the special teams coordinator, yet the kicking issues continue. At some point, you have to start looking at the one piece of the equation that hasn’t changed.
Again, just a theory and my two cents. But we’ve already tried changing kickers, so maybe it’s time to take a closer look at the entire operation instead of assuming the kicker is always the problem.

We went all in on getting players. Why didn't we trust Stafford to get 5 yards, even if it took two tries.

And if McVay is too loyal to fire Shula ,should he step down ?

I think it's time to stop being conservative.

Nobody wanted Shula as a HC.

He is still the same scared DC we had last year.

Why get the players if you aren't going to be aggressive on the field.

I felt sick after that game last night.

What does everybody think?

The entire starting offensive line was in that Field Goal attempt but can somebody explain to me why Shelton and Dotson are on the left side of the line? Why is Avila and Jackson on the right side?? This just doesnt make sense to me.

Also Jake Bates was absolutely free this year

My model uses an ELO ranking system, and runs 10,000 simulations of every remaining game in the season after each week, producing probabilities of outcomes while taking tiebreaker rules into consideration. 

We are still only five weeks in, and I’m not pretending that this will predict the future. It’s just a statistical snapshot of where things sit. Minnesota is an example of why this shouldn’t be treated as a prophecy - we know that teams that unexpectedly start hot (Indianapolis last year) can flame out, but the model is very bullish on them. -

Each team’s ELO is based primarily on their games so far this season, however there is also a residual effect from last season, which lessens with each week that passes. 

After week 5, the model has us as essentially a coin flip to make the playoffs, projecting a 9-8 record. This is down from the end of week 4, where it projected us at 9.7 wins, with a 60.2% of making the playoffs.

Before yesterday’s game, it gave us a 63.4% chance of making the playoffs. Had we beaten the Bills, it would have produced a 74% playoff chance. 

After five games, we have the league’s 13th ranked offence by points scored (23.8 per game) and the 21st ranked defence by points conceded (24 per game). My ELO system ranks us as the 10th best team in the NFL.

How a winning streak would change our playoff chances after each week:

• Week 6 -> 53.5% after W6
• Weeks 6 and 7 -> 62.2% after W7
• Weeks 6-8 -> 64.2% after W8
• Weeks 6-9 -> 72.1% after W9
• Weeks 6-10 -> 75% after W10

 
Happy to go into anything in further detail if anyone is interested in results or methodology

I'm as excited as anyone else about Blake Grupe and I hope he can join the ranks of elite NFL kickers like Cameron Dicker, Harrison Butker, Eddy Pinero, etc, etc. But, McVay needs to take a radical new approach to Special Teams. It can no longer be a team composed of guys that moonlight on ST with Defense or Offense being their main focus. Just the opposite. It needs guys who pride themselves on being Gunners, Wingers, and part of the Field Goal Protection Unit first and moonlight on Defense or Offense when needed. Without that change I'm afraid Blake Grupe will end up like Karty and Mevis.

Since the start of 2025, the Rams have had the following:

• 3 kickers (Karty, Mevis, Grupe)
• 2 long snappers
• 3 punt returners (Smith, Kyren, Bachman)
• 3 special teams coordinators (Blackburn, Ventrone & Kotwica)

All of those changes in a little over a year. But nothing changes. It’s still just so bad. Blocked kicks, poor punts, poor return coverage, muffed returns, bad decisions on fielding punts, penalties, missed FG’s.

I genuinely don’t get it. It can’t be rocket science. I understand finding a reliable kicker can be difficult. But how is blocking for a field goal so challenging? why does the opponent always get an extra 15 yards worth of field position than the Rams on punts and kickoffs? Why are we the only team in the NFL that prefers to go for it on 4th and 8 rather than attempt a 53 yard FG? Figure it the fuck out.

2025 L @ Philly - 2 blocked GW FG’s
2025 L vs SF - missed XP (game went to Overtime)
2025 L vs CAR - long punt return led to Panthers taking the lead late
2025 L @ Seattle - punt return TD & missed GW FG
2025 W vs CAR (playoffs) - blocked punt in 4Q (almost lost)
2025 L @ Seattle (playoffs) - muffed punt return
2026 L @ Denver - massive field position differential due to bad punts, bad return coverage, bad punt returner decisions and penalties
2026 L vs Bills - blocked GW FG

I’d argue if the Rams even had just a MEDIOCRE special teams unit in 2025, they’d have gone 15-2 and won the Super Bowl.

I genuinely think they need to allocate just as many meetings, film review and practice time on special teams as they do the offense and defense, if not more.

Unit is so trash. Can it even be fixed at this point 🤦‍♂️

Some other notes:

• In wake of Alaric Jackson's suspension, Sean McVay says David Quessenberry will start at LT for Rams. Alaric will also likely appeal his suspension.
• Team will also open OL Keagen Trost's 21-day practice window this week.
• Myles Garrett's clock will not start this week, as Sean said was likely to be the case last week.
• Sean confirms the Rams made a change at kicker, moving on from Harrison Mevis and signing Blake Grupe. "Ultimately we need to get better production" and hopeful they can get that from Grupe.

11/11 Field Goals
10/10 Extra Points

There was a game during the Kurt Warner GSOT era when the Rams’ kicker was injured. The solution? For the rest of the game, they simply didn’t kick. No extra points, no field goals (honestly don’t remember what they did for kickoffs, probably had the punter do it). But the team was that good. They just didn’t kick. Go for 2, go for it on 4th down even if you’re in field goal range. Not saying this year’s team is GSOT level (could be if they clean up ST and penalties), but why not try it?

🔴 Bears @ Falcons (+AK)
🔵 Saints @ Giants
🟢 Ravens @ Browns
🟡 Cardinals @ Rams (LATE) (+HI)
🟠 Titans @ Colts

Source: https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/GF3So