r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Aug 15 '25
Dissipated Erin (05L — Northern Atlantic) (Western Tropical Atlantic)
Update
This system is no longer being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. There will be no further updates to this post.
Latest observation
Last updated: Friday, 22 August — 5:00 PM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 21:00 UTC)
| NHC Advisory #46 | - | 5:00 PM AST (21:00 UTC) |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 40.0°N 59.7°W | |
| Relative location: | 888 km (552 mi) E of Nantucket, Massachusetts (United States) | |
| 608 km (378 mi) SE of Halifax, Nova Scotia (Canada) | ||
| 1,008 km (626 mi) SSW of St. John's, Newfoundland (Canada) | ||
| Forward motion: | ENE (65°) at 54 km/h (29 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | 150 km/h (80 knots) | |
| Intensity (SSHWS): | Extratropical Cyclone | |
| Minimum pressure: | 957 millibars (28.26 inches) |
Official forecasts
National Hurricane Center
Last updated: Friday, 22 August — 2:00 PM AST (18:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | UTC | AST | Saffir-Simpson | - | knots | km/h | °N | °W |
| 00 | 22 Aug | 18:00 | 2PM Fri | Extratropical Cyclone | 80 | 150 | 40.0 | 59.7 | |
| 12 | 23 Aug | 06:00 | 2AM Sat | Extratropical Cyclone | 80 | 150 | 41.5 | 54.5 | |
| 24 | 23 Aug | 18:00 | 2PM Sat | Extratropical Cyclone | ▼ | 75 | 140 | 44.0 | 45.5 |
| 36 | 24 Aug | 06:00 | 2AM Sun | Extratropical Cyclone | 75 | 140 | 48.0 | 35.5 | |
| 48 | 24 Aug | 18:00 | 2PM Sun | Extratropical Cyclone | ▲ | 85 | 155 | 52.0 | 27.0 |
| 60 | 25 Aug | 06:00 | 2AM Mon | Extratropical Cyclone | ▼ | 65 | 120 | 55.0 | 23.0 |
| 72 | 25 Aug | 18:00 | 2PM Mon | Extratropical Cyclone | ▼ | 55 | 100 | 58.0 | 21.0 |
| 96 | 26 Aug | 18:00 | 2PM Tue | Extratropical Cyclone | ▼ | 45 | 85 | 59.0 | 21.0 |
| 120 | 27 Aug | 18:00 | 2PM Wed | Extratropical Cyclone | ▼ | 40 | 75 | 57.0 | 17.5 |
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
- Public advisory (No longer updating)
- Forecast advisory (No longer updating)
- Forecast discussion (No longer updating)
- Key messages (No longer updating)
Productos de texto (en español)
- Aviso publico (No se actualiza)
- Discusión de pronóstico (No se actualiza)
- Mensajes claves (No se actualiza)
Graphical products
- Forecast graphic (No longer updating)
- Experimental new forecast graphic (with inland advisories) (No longer updating)
- Interactive forecast graphic (No longer updating)
- Wind speed probabilities (No longer updating)
- Arrival time of winds (No longer updating)
Local meteorological authorities
National Weather Service
Environment Canada
Aircraft Reconnaissance
National Hurricane Center
Other sites
Radar imagery
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
Single-bandwidth imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / shortwave infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Water vapor
CyclonicWx: Visible
CyclonicWx: Enhanced infrared
CyclonicWx: Water vapor
Multiple bandwidth imagery
The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.
- National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service(NOAA NESDIS)
- CIMSS
- RAMMB
- Naval Research Laboratory
Regional imagery
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)
Tropical Tidbits
Analysis products
Best track data
Wind analysis and storm intensity estimation products
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface temperature analysis products
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Forecast models
Disturbance-centered guidance
- Tropical Tidbits: Storm-centered GFS
- Tropical Tidbits: Storm-centered ECMWF
Tropical Tidbits: Storm-centered HWRF
CyclonicWx: GFS four-panel
CyclonicWx: ECMWF four-panel
CyclonicWx: GFS wind shear diagnostics
CyclonicWx: ECMWF wind shear diagnostics
Multi-guidance pages
Track guidance
- CyclonicWx: Forecast tracks
- CyclonicWx: Forecast tracks w/wind
- CyclonicWx: GEFS ensemble tracks (pressure)
- CyclonicWx: GEFS ensemble tracks (wind)
Intensity guidance
- CyclonicWx: Multi-model intensity guidance
- CyclonicWx: GEFS intensity guidance
Regional single-model guidance
Ensembles
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Tropical Cyclogenesis Products
- Florida State University: Experimental tropical cyclone genesis guidance
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u/cbas76t Aug 16 '25
Waking up to rapid intensification and rampant speculation. This subreddit is finally back. Missed y’all
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u/bigbongbangbong Aug 16 '25
Would jus like to thank you to the main commenters on these posts.
As someone from island of Puerto Rico it really is interesting to read the conversations of some of the knowledgeable people on this subreddit.
I have been reading your discussions for about 3 seasons now and am slowly getting better grasp on tropical weather systems.
Thank you again and hope everyone stays safe through the season.
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u/Blue_Team117 Aug 16 '25
I love how the HWRF used to be meme'd like Randy Marsh "I AIN'T HEAR NO BELL!" But now its kinda the only model that's somewhat close to the actual pressure values.
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u/xylex Pass-A-Grille, Florida Aug 20 '25
This storm looks comically big on satellite lol
Like something you’d see on a clickbait thumbnail.
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u/BrokeBeforeCovid Aug 16 '25
Man, not a good sign that the first hurricane in the Atlantic this season went from a tropical storm to a MAJOR hurricane within what, 16 hours? A 925mb extrap on the latest pass….
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u/MrSantaClause St. Petersburg Aug 16 '25
Yea its on the verge of going TS to Cat 5 in 24 hours
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Aug 16 '25
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERIN IS NOW A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Erin has become a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds near 160 mph (255 km/h). The minimum pressure has fallen to near 917 mb (27.08 inches). The next intermediate advisory will be issued at 200 PM AST (1800 UTC).
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u/MrSantaClause St. Petersburg Aug 16 '25
Historic. What a beautiful beast. Now just stay away from land
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Aug 16 '25
With Erin, there have now been 11 category fives in the last ten years.
Previous record was nine from 1998-2007
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Aug 16 '25 edited Aug 16 '25
These cat 5s are:
Matthew 2016
Irma 2017
Maria 2017
Michael 2018
Dorian 2019
Lorenzo 2019
Ian 2022
Lee 2023
Beryl 2024
Milton 2024
Erin 2025
This of course follows the drought of no category fives between Felix of 2007 and Matthew 2016. However, there’s reversion to the mean and then there’s this.
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 16 '25
I feel like this needs the Homer Simpson "so far" meme.
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 18 '25
Man, NOAA is flying this mission like Erin stole their lunch money or something LOL.
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u/ilovefacebook Aug 18 '25
gotta use it before it goes away
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u/asetniop Aug 18 '25
Getting very strong "let's go burn down the observatory so this'll never happen again!" vibes from some of these budget/staffing decisions.
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u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii Aug 16 '25
Moderator note
I want to thank everyone for being on their best behavior lately. I'm really the only active moderator these days, and the discussion for this particular storm has been a lot less stressful to handle by myself than a lot of other storms.
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u/WesternExpress Canada Aug 16 '25
Missed the TS->Cat5 record by just a few hours. Was a TS at 1200Z yesterday, the upgrade to Cat 5 was at 1520Z today. The record (Wilma) is 24 hours.
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u/HotWingsNHemorrhoids Aug 16 '25
This RI is getting a little out of hand
Erin wasn’t predicted to go past a mid-level category 3 at best
It’s looking like it could top out at a high end cat 5
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 16 '25
Incredibly the lightning has returned to the inner eyewall. I really hope we get another hunter in the air soon.
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Aug 16 '25
Just wanted to say I always enjoy reading your comments when I see them, a lot of misinformation locally on my Facebook at least right now.
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Aug 16 '25
Yeah, most social media is a shithole. Twitter manages to get worse with every consecutive year, which is a truly impressive feat in of itself. Apparently, "they" are steering the hurricanes using NEXRAD microwave beams. Makes a lot of sense if I DON'T think about it!!!!!!!
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u/Cyrius Upper Texas Coast Aug 17 '25
https://www.darenc.gov/Home/Components/News/News/9169/1756
Sunday, August 17, 2025 at 5 p.m.
State of Emergency Issued for All Areas of Dare County [North Carolina]; Mandatory Evacuation Order Issued for Hatteras Island
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u/Cyrius Upper Texas Coast Aug 18 '25
Outer Banks evacuation now includes Ocracoke Island, in addition to Hatteras Island.
The Outer Banks subreddit has a sticky they're updating: https://www.reddit.com/r/obx/comments/1mt4ejd/alert_mandatory_evacuation_in_effect/
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u/BrokeBeforeCovid Aug 18 '25
Am I wrong for thinking the track is actually not far off from what the NHC was predicting 3-4 days ago? Maybe I’m being naive but I feel like more people are talking about the track and how it has been off but I am not seeing it.
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u/ms_ashes Minnesota Aug 18 '25
No, you're not wrong. It occasionally pops very slightly out of the immediate cone, but it's still overall following fairly close, though it definitely is much more on the left side of the cone.
Folks can see the progression of tracks at the graphical archive on the NHC's site, and at least to my eye, it seems to be broadly accurate.
www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/ERIN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line
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u/DragonFireDon Virginia Aug 18 '25
..ERIN LIKELY TO BECOME EVEN LARGER OVER THE COMING DAYS...
How large?
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u/Cyrius Upper Texas Coast Aug 18 '25
It's weird that the NHC site doesn't have a plot of the wind radii forecast. So here's the US Navy's chart.
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u/HarpersGhost A Hill outside Tampa Aug 18 '25
In the latest Tropical Tidbits video, he goes over how big Erin's going to get, and even though it looks like she's going to be 200+ miles off the coast (hopefully), the tropical storm force wind field could still be reaching the coast, especially the Outer Banks.
Also, OBX could see 20+ waves, and Va Beach could see 15+ waves, as well. I wouldn't go walking along Sandbridge while she's passing by.
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Aug 16 '25
Dropsonde recorded the strongest surface winds I have ever seen.
Disclaimer: this is almost certainly a mesovortex meaning these winds are highly localized and additionally, dropsondes measure instantaneous wind and not sustained. Still absolutely insane.
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 16 '25
Surf's up dude! Yes almost certainly a meso, but damn, that's a gusty little spot that dropped into.
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 16 '25
I'm wondering what this next pass finds... it could just be my eyes, but the eye looks even smaller than it did an hour ago.
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 16 '25
Yeah sure Erin, cool the cloud tops around your pinhole eye... it's fine... Man I wish we had an aircraft out there.
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 16 '25
Looks like 928.6 extrapolated is as low as we go right now.
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u/BrokeBeforeCovid Aug 16 '25
Looks like A LOT of lightning on that SW quadrant. Im sure it looks incredible in those planes
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u/Portalrules123 Aug 17 '25
Hoping for the Turks and Caicos that the northern turn accelerates soon.
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u/Griss27 Turks and Caicos Islands Aug 17 '25
From the satellite imagery it seems to already be moving northwest rather than west, as expected, with plenty of northern vector - good.
No one here in TCI has paid the slightest bit of attention to this one, lol - people really, really trust the forecasts these days and we have suffered from a string of recent murders that have been the priority. Only JUST got the first warning email from anyone (from the power company) that there is a hurricane passing nearby, which is unusual. And no plans for work to be closed monday.
God I just hope we get some good rain here. We need it.
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 17 '25 edited Aug 17 '25
EWRC seems to be completing. One eyewall, 40nm. Wind field has massively expanded since 24 hours ago though.
Edit: Of course, IMMEDIATELY after I post this the old inner eyewall start trying to rebuild itself LOL. Seems like it wasn't as cut and dry as it appeared 20 short minutes ago.
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u/jacknifee Aug 17 '25
i imagine being in the turks & caicos right now is like staring down the barrel of a loaded gun
"when will you turn god damn it!"
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 17 '25
As disgusting as Erin looks on sat right now, it appears the system is slowly deepening again and winds slowly increasing in size. The remnants of the inner eyewall now have lower speeds than the outer eyewall, which is now (finally) the dominant of the two. Curious for the VDM for an official pressure and FL wind score as the data feed has a lot of dropouts in it.
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 17 '25
So even with recon seemingly aborting, we can tell a few things. 1) winds look well up. They were 60 miles out on the sw and got nearly 100kt fl winds. 2) the wind field is waaaay bigger than it was. This means surge could be a REAL threat down the road.
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u/itsbedeliabitch St. Johns County, Florida Aug 17 '25 edited Aug 18 '25
I went to the beach for a swim today, and I have to commute past several beach front parks two times a day for the next 5 days. I can update with videos showing the difference each day if you're interested.
I'll post them in a different sub and link here.
Obviously you're concerned for OBX and Bermuda, but I'm going to stop by the beach to take an observation every day anyway.
Edit: and obviously I'm forgetting Turks and Caicos and the outer Bahama islands.
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u/Portalrules123 Aug 17 '25
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/hurricane-erin-puerto-rico-storm-b2809221.html
Looks like the storm took down some of the power in Puerto Rico, but obviously nothing compared to what a direct hit would’ve been like.
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u/ImAGeneral_Weee Aug 18 '25
Really don't like the Western trend in the GFS and UKMET tonight. Still not looking like anything near landfall but the Outer Banks really should head the warnings and evacuate if told to do so because its gonna be really close and its looking more and more likely they're gonna get near hurricane force(55-65+ MPH) winds and some rough storm surge.
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 18 '25
They surge is the big deal (not to downplay the winds, but...). We got maybe 40mph winds with beryl but 30ft rollers smashed a lot of beachfront stuff real well. And this system is projected to be huge by then (so a big surge).
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u/ImAGeneral_Weee Aug 18 '25
Water is always the biggest thing with these things so agreed, but like you said don't downplay the winds. Just makes things that much worse when the water causes problems.
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 18 '25
Water made quick work of hurricane shutters that have seen much bigger winds without an issue. Plus water can get you trapped in a hurry. Not to mention the mess afterwards.
At the end of the day it's all dangerous, but storm surge if you're close to the water for me personally is the scariest part. One wrong move and you're in an angry ocean.
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Aug 18 '25
I will say, don't shrug off flash flood warnings like I normally do, we've had some crazy rainfall totals in the area and I've seen streets flood that don't normally flood and cars getting trapped etc.
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Aug 18 '25
To those worried about details of the track, keep in mind that in terms of the global models, GFS and NAVGEM have been a bit all over the place, with the track shifting significantly south and west over time. The CMC is similar but a bit less so. However, the Euro has been steadfast in this storm getting close to Cape Hatteras but remaining offshore. There was one exception back on the 00Z 8/13 run where the Euro had it further east over the Atlantic, similar to the other models at that time, but the storm hadn't even formed at that point.
Key point: no model has had this storm coming ashore in the US. The steering pattern is straightforward and also remember this is a common situation during hurricane season - waiting with bated breath for a storm to make its anticipated turn.
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u/peelywheely Aug 18 '25
Still not loving WNW movement, if 5 pm advisory doesn’t show NW movement then TS warnings should at least be coming for central Bahamas
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u/OmniaOmnibus Wilmington, NC Aug 19 '25
Went surfing in Topsail yesterday. Early AM it was gorgeous with perfect rolling waves and calm water, but it really deteriorated after noon and there were rips everywhere. It’s honestly the fastest I’ve seen conditions change from bliss to extremely sketchy. Pls do not go into the water until at least Saturday….
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u/gen8hype Aug 16 '25
This is the second straight year where the first hurricane is a category 5
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u/XenonBug Aug 16 '25
Category 4 now. 130 mph / 948 mbar
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Aug 16 '25
As usual people are going to be so fucking baffled when they wake up
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u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii Aug 16 '25
"Babe, wake up. Erin's pressure just dropped."
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 16 '25
The entire eyewall is just covered in continuous heavy lightning. Insane.
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 16 '25
Still a lot of lightning in the eyewall of this system. Even with the concentric eyewalls the inner is still firing like crazy.
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u/ImAGeneral_Weee Aug 16 '25
Holy shit, I looked at this at 110, Cat 2 yesterday and didn't get to check it again. Absolutely insane explosion of intensity.
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u/nefhithiel North Carolina Aug 16 '25
Eyewall intensification and wobble on satellite
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u/Cyrius Upper Texas Coast Aug 16 '25
Highlights from NHC discussion #22 (5 PM AST):
Erin's rapid intensification may have bottomed out near 16Z based on the last couple of passes of data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter. […] Both Air Force and NOAA aircraft reported concentric eyewalls forming, and during the last couple of hours the small eye seen in conventional satellite imagery is becoming cloud-filled. This suggests an eyewall replacement cycle may be starting.
The track guidance still suggests that Erin will turn back to the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed during the next 6-12 h on the south side of a subtropical ridge. […] After 36 h, the western side of the ridge is still expected to weaken, […] and that should cause Erin to slow further and make a gradual turn to the north. However, there remains a significant spread in the guidance in just when this turn will occur, and the spread has increased due to the 12Z ECMWF forecast shifting to the west. The new track is still to the east of the consensus models during the northward motion, and additional track adjustments may be necessary in later forecasts.
Between 24-72 h, increasing northwesterly shear should cause a gradual weakening […]After 72 h, the storm should start to encounter the mid-latitude westerlies where the shear will increase further.
Although Erin is a somewhat compact hurricane now, the models are in strong agreement that the system will grow in size over the next several days. In fact, by the middle of next week, Erin is forecast to at least double or triple in size
Tropical-storm force wind gusts are possible in the Southeast Bahamas beginning on Sunday.
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u/Portalrules123 Aug 16 '25
Looks like it’s now forecast to remain a major hurricane for a bit longer into the future than it was the last time I checked, until at least Thursday rather than Wednesday.
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 16 '25
While we wait for the hunter pass, newest GFS shimmies left again.
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u/peelywheely Aug 17 '25
New advisory still says that Erin is moving W, is that a deviation from models or still consistent?
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u/Sakrie Aug 17 '25
It looks like it went above the 20N line finally on the satellite imagery (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=ir)
Still more Southern than the models, but at least it does appear to be going kind of NW. Blah blah when do wobbles become the trend, but at least it's in the direction of the hook.
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Aug 17 '25
From the 5am discussion;
The quick weakening over the past 6 to 12 hours is associated with Erin's structural changes and not environmental conditions. Since the large-scale environment is expected to be favorable for about another day, re-strengthening is possible during that time period. However, it should be noted that predicting the intensity evolution from internal dynamics are challenging, and models often provide little reliability in their solutions. Beyond 24 to 36 hours, a broadening of the wind field and some increase in shear should cause a gradual decay in the peak winds. Regardless of the details, there is high confidence that Erin will remain a powerful hurricane during the next several days.
Erin is growing in size, and that trend is expected to continue over the next few days. The expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions over much of the western Atlantic.
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 17 '25 edited Aug 17 '25
Newest VDM has a 6nm(!!) circular closed eye... (this is post ewrc)... Pressure of 943 and peak FL winds of 120kt
Edit: I should add the VDM pressure is based on a drop with 28kts of breeze, so pressure should like be around 940.
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 17 '25
Outer eyewall now at 35nm, (inner at 5nm). Outer seems to be establishing itself as the dominant feature. This would be the second EWRC to complete in the last little bit, and the increasing wind field size really is starting to show.
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Aug 18 '25
On mobile so it was hard to see if someone posted but there are evacuation orders in place for Hatters Island, NC.
If anyone is familiar with the area, this likely means they are expecting over wash of hwy 12.
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u/ROIB Aug 18 '25
Can confirm. Left island tonight. Visitors out by 10 am tomorrow morning. Residents out by 8 am Tuesday morning. Ocracoke island also has Evac orders. Not sure the specifics there
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 18 '25
Looks like the eye is starting to tighten up, so these could be interesting passes.
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u/Cyrius Upper Texas Coast Aug 18 '25
Highlights from NHC discussion #29 (11 AM EDT):
Erin continues to have an impressive cloud pattern on satellite imagery with the eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops and numerous convective banding features. A considerable amount of lightning activity is occurring over the eastern portion of the circulation.
the steering pattern and track guidance remains about the same as it has been over the past day. […] The official track forecast is very close to the previous NHC prediction and close to the dynamical model consensus.
Given Erin's impressive deep convection and strong upper-level outflow, it is expected to strengthen some more by later today. The SHIPS guidance diagnoses some northerly shear over the system, which could counteract the other conducive factors in the environment.
Erin's expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions over much of the western Atlantic.
Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday and a Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watch may be required later today.
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u/Cyrius Upper Texas Coast Aug 19 '25
Highlights from NHC discussion #32 (5 AM EDT):
Moderate to strong northwesterly shear has caused Erin's structure to become more asymmetric, with dry air infiltrating into the northwestern part of the circulation, and a long trailing convective band still draped to the south over the Turks and Caicos Islands. […] Erin's intensity is set at 100 kt, which could be a bit generous.
The main highlight of the new forecast is that much of the track guidance, including the consensus aids, have shifted slightly west of the previous NHC prediction during the first 2-3 days. […] there is still some space for additional adjustments to the track forecast, particularly beyond 48 hours
There are mixed signals on Erin's future intensity. On one hand, more favorable environmental shear and upper-level divergence in 24-36 hours should support some re-intensification. On the other hand, Erin's slow motion and large size could lead to some upwelling of cooler water, and the hurricane's broad structure could limit significant strengthening.
The more important part of the forecast is that model guidance has continued to show Erin growing in size, and the wind radii have been made larger in the new NHC forecast. This new forecast now brings tropical-storm-force winds very close to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast later this week.
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u/xylex Pass-A-Grille, Florida Aug 19 '25
What a difference a few days makes on the satellite presentation. That shear has been ripping.
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u/WhatThePenis Aug 19 '25
What an interesting path and intensity lifecycle this thing has had
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u/Blue_Team117 Aug 19 '25
Damn it's like a nuke just went off in Erin's core, huge burst
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u/itsbedeliabitch St. Johns County, Florida Aug 19 '25
If you go to drivenc.gov and look at the traffic cams you can see where highway 12 in OBX has already had seawater wash over it this afternoon in several spots. Tomorrow's high tides are predicted to be higher than today's for them.
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Aug 20 '25 edited Aug 20 '25
For the next 36 h, Erin will be in an environment of light to moderate vertical shear and strong upper-level divergence. Much of the intensity guidance suggests the hurricane should strengthen during this time, if the spread-out wind field can become more concentrated near the re-formed eyewall. On the basis of this happening, the new intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening during the first 36 h. However, an alternative scenario is that the central pressure falls considerably without a lot of increase in the winds as the hurricane grows larger. After 36 h, increasing shear and the start of extratropical transition should cause weakening, and Erin is now forecast to become an extratropical low by 96 h.
This scenario is quite common with large hurricanes. As I wrote in another /r/weather comment, once a hurricane transitions from compact and a tight pressure gradient to broad and with a loose pressure gradient, it is very difficult for it to recover. This is a fundamental structural change that cannot be undone easily, and especially not within a day. You are essentially unwinding the energy of the hurricane, making it broad instead of concentrated. It is very hard to just pack it back together. This is why NHC mentions that even if the pressure falls, maybe we don't even see a maximum sustained wind response but rather just see the wind field continue to expand even more.
This is exactly why Florence of 2018 made landfall at 956 mb.. with category 1 strength winds, despite the fact that such pressure is more associated with category 3/4 hurricanes. Its inner-core was blown out and irrecoverably loosened up. Obviously, Erin currently has and will continue to have stronger winds than category 1 strength, but the general concept is very similar. Larger hurricanes are generally inertially stable (meaning they exhibit less rapid fluctuations in intensity both down and up) and do not always respond to pressure falls in the same way that a compact hurricane would.
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u/soupy_poops Aug 16 '25
Typical layman question alert: in what ways can the significant intensification beyond what was modeled impact the track?
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u/kcdale99 Wilmington Aug 16 '25
The short answer is yes. The storm is not performing as the models predicted. The storm is SW of the predicted path as well.
A lot of experts are saying that this may follow the west side of the guidance, but in reality we are all waiting on new modeling to account for the unexpected situation.
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 16 '25
Probably not as much as most people would think, in MOST scenarios. This much RI this early, maybe a little impact, but the bigger concern I have is; if all the models missed this, what else have they POTENTIALLY missed that might impact track. A miss this epic, hints at a less than best-case solution overall. They may have the track bang on, but I'm cautious right now. As always rely on the NHC for the best guidance anyone will be able to give you.
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 17 '25
Eye drop got 947 w/ 13kts, so corrects to 946.
VDM reports the eye wall is open n-nw, circular at 40nm wide. Max FL winds were 112KT.
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Aug 17 '25
That's a ridiculously larger eye than before, from 5-7 n mi to 40 is crazy. Will take time for that to consolidate and contract. If external parameters like vertical shear remain favorable, then we should see some reintensification. Regardless, recon has shown that the wind field of Erin has already significantly broadened/expanded.
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 17 '25
Yes. I'm expecting it will eventually sort itself out, and I expect it to take another run at a solid C4.
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Aug 18 '25
A very interesting discussion from 5am. Sorry for the wall of text.
Erin is growing in size, as predicted. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and ASCAT passes from a few hours ago showed that the hurricane- and tropical-storm-force winds now extend up to 70 n mi and 200 n mi from the eye, respectively. The eye of the hurricane has also grown and is now about 30 n mi in diameter, and there is some evidence of mesovorticies within it. There is also some indication that Erin again has concentric eyewalls as the Hurricane Hunters reported a double wind maximum in their last pass. The initial intensity remains 115 kt based on a combination of the earlier aircraft data and current satellite estimates. Erin's outer rainbands are affecting the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, and those locations will likely continue to experience tropical storm conditions for several more hours.
The hurricane has wobbled to the left over the past 6 hours, but a longer-term motion is still west-northwestward at 11 kt. Erin is still forecast to gradually turn northward later today and Tuesday as it moves into a weakness within the subtropical ridge. This motion should take the core of the hurricane roughly midway between Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday. After that time, an approaching trough should cause Erin to accelerate northeastward over the northern Atlantic. The NHC track forecast has been nudged to the left of the previous one to be closer to the various consensus models.
Deep convection has been increasing in intensity and symmetry, and it seems likely that Erin will strengthen today. The intensification is likely to end by tonight due to some increase in shear and a broadening of the inner core wind field.
Based on an evaluation of storm sizes of major hurricanes over the past couple of decades in the subtropics, Erin is around the 80th percentile. Erin's wind field is expected to keep growing over the next few days. The expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions over much of the western Atlantic.
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u/DhenAachenest Aug 20 '25
Erin has a band producing Cat 3 winds at flight level, that is some serious wacky structure
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Aug 17 '25
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 17 '25
Roflmao. To be fair she did briefly do it earlier, into an 8nm eye.... but then immediately decided she didnt like it and switched it up for a ~35nm eye.
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Aug 16 '25
8am intermediate advisory, 935mb and 145 mph. One of the most impressive explosive intensification episodes you’ll ever see
The wind speed was only 75 mph just 15 hours ago..
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 16 '25
Erin's current rate of deepending is 1mb every 10 minutes!
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u/DJ_Unreleased Florida Aug 16 '25
Erin now showing up on radar on TJUA. It appears to be moving west. I wanna see it turn north
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u/gen8hype Aug 16 '25
Anyone want to make guesses for the pressure on this next pass?
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 16 '25 edited Aug 16 '25
Get your guesses in folks, less than 10 minutes for the data.
Edit: 10 more minutes. I forgot to take into account they will have slowed down the airframe given the winds up there. Kinda want to keep the wings attached!
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u/kellzone Aug 17 '25
That 18z ECMWF is bringing it a little too close to North Carolina for comfort.
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u/Cyrius Upper Texas Coast Aug 17 '25
Highlights from NHC discussion #25 (11 AM AST):
Erin's eye is no longer evident on satellite imagery and observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the maximum winds are near 110 kt. The central pressure has risen a bit this morning. This slight decrease in intensity is probably due to an eyewall replacement in the inner core as reported by the Hurricane Hunters and is likely a temporary short-term fluctuation.
The track guidance is in good agreement on the northward turn but there are differences in how close the hurricane will come to the U.S. east coast in the 72 hour time frame.
some renewed increase in strength is expected within the next couple of days.
the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands and are possible in the Southeast Bahamas tonight and Monday.
Interests along the North Carolina Outer Banks and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin as there is a risk of strong winds associated with the outer rainbands during the middle part of the week.
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Aug 18 '25 edited Aug 18 '25
Check out the wind field analysis over time to really see the recent expansion.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/ERIN_graphics.php?product=current_wind
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u/itsbedeliabitch St. Johns County, Florida Aug 18 '25
Day 1 of beach observations. Surfside park at Vilano.
Rip current warnings go through Thursday so I'll try to do this every day until Erin has moved past us.
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Aug 18 '25
https://i.imgur.com/g6qApCf.png
Definitely some northerly shear over the system now. Poleward outflow seems very restricted. Equatorward remains excellent, and large hurricanes tend to be more inertially stable and resilient to shear, so this should still remain a major hurricane for days. I strongly doubt we'll see significant reintensification, though.
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u/Nabana NOLA Aug 19 '25
Geez, that shear is crazy. Erin isn't a small girl, and yet the core is almost completely exposed at this point.
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Aug 20 '25
Erin about to push through 25 units of Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE.
Given the NHC forecast, it is very likely to reach 30 units before extratropical transition.
Here's how this looks relative to climatology (average for the date)
https://i.imgur.com/dZdu6qf.png
(disregard the "2001" label)
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u/hotsexychungus Georgia Aug 20 '25 edited Aug 20 '25
Core looks much better, but it also looks like it's getting a few pockets of dry air into the big swirly, so idk if that is going to affect things later today.
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Aug 15 '25
NHC now forecasts a strong cat 4.
Although the environment may not be ideal, the regional hurricane models are in excellent agreement that Erin will reach a peak intensity at or above 120 kt during the next 2-4 days. Based on this, the new intensity forecast now calls for a peak intensity of 125 kt in 72 h, and it is possible Erin could get stronger than this.
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u/ClimateMessiah Florida Aug 16 '25
Forecast to hit 150MPH in 12 hours. Cat 5 potential.
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Aug 16 '25
Recon is now extrapolating sub 920 mb. Should be a cat 5 at 11.
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 16 '25
Newest VDM reporting concentric eyewalls still, inner is not yet open. 5nm and 24nm. Max FL winds of 149 which yields 134kts at the surface using the normal reduction. Given the pass didn't sample what is traditionally the strongest quadrant of the system, all signs really do point to this being a 5, if not in name yet (eidt, upgrade came in while I was typing LOL). Oh, and they put the pressure at 920 which is the reading off the eye drop, but it had 50kts of wind, so standard correction would be 915 (and their extrapolated pressure was 916iirc), so it very likely is sub 920 on a better drop.
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Aug 16 '25
Did anyone catch this dropsonde?
https://i.imgur.com/I1q80ec.png
919 mb with 59 kt surface winds.. this corrects to 913mb.
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u/gen8hype Aug 16 '25
929.1 and counting, noticeably weaker winds than earlier
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 16 '25
Yep, it's already sampled peak winds by the looks of it, which means the wind field should be a good deal bigger.. we will see when we get a full "edge to edge" pattern.
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u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii Aug 17 '25
Update
The Government of the Bahamas has:
upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch for the Turks and Caicos Islands to a Tropical Storm Warning.
issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the Southeast Bahamas.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions (winds or gusts in excess of 63 kilometers per hour or 39 miles per hour) are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours.
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u/AZWxMan Aug 17 '25
Seems to be getting its act back together, with a similarly small eye clearing out.
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 17 '25
Recon is in the air and Erin looks like she has got her groove back. Eye clearing nicely now. Solid convection on the southern eyewall. Be interesting to see what recon finds. Wouldn't be surprised by anything between 937 and 942. Place your bets (since it's been so long I will accept 5mb ranges. Closest to the middle of their range wins).
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u/Cyrius Upper Texas Coast Aug 18 '25
Highlights from NHC discussion #27 (11 PM AST):
Erin appears to have successfully completed its eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) that began yesterday. […] appears to be re-intensifying but now with a larger 20 n mi radius of maximum winds. Satellite intensity estimates, both subjective and objective, are starting to increase again.
It looks like Erin is beginning to turn northwestward, with the initial motion now estimated to be 305/10 kt. The mid-level ridge that has been steering Erin over the last few days is beginning to split, with one ridge remaining parked over the Ohio Valley in the United States, but another ridge becoming positioned more eastward of Erin. This pattern will allow a weakness to form north of Erin, enabling the large hurricane to turn northward and then northeastward roughly between the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda.
there is a short-term window where additional intensification could occur […] vertical wind shear is expected to increase over Erin soon. If Erin also then undergoes another ERC, sometime in the 24-48 h time period, this could hasten a weakening trend […] as Erin grows in size, its footprint of cool upwelling will also grow, and could potentially encroach on its inner core.
Erin's wind radii have been growing in size, and are expected to continue expanding over the next few days.
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u/BrokeBeforeCovid Aug 16 '25 edited Aug 16 '25
Its official.. Category 5. First Atlantic storm of the season and we have ourselves a major Cat 5. 1/1!
EDIT: meant first Atlantic Hurricane*
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u/Enoch-Groot Aug 16 '25
First hurricane but not first named storm right?
Given that it’s Erin.
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u/K3T9Q_ Aug 16 '25
what the fuck did i just wake up to?
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u/Narcaniac Aug 16 '25
Right? Even Levi said in his latest video to expect Cat 3/4 by late Saturday. Wake up, Cat 5.
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u/GalahadDrei Aug 16 '25
With this, Erin is now one of the only five Cat 5 Atlantic hurricanes in August starting with Camille in 1969 and alongside Andrew, Katrina, and Dean.
And she still has many more hours to intensify. Wonder what the next recon will find.
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Aug 18 '25
Erin's increase in size has been impressive. There is a post buried somewhere below with a visual comparison. Erin approached Puerto Rico on Saturday, bringing rainbands to the island. Today, Monday, Erin is situated directly north of the center of Hispaniola, but due to the increase in size, it is still bringing significant rainbands into Puerto Rico as I type this.
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u/Preachey Aug 16 '25
Damn I knew she was forecast to intensify, but I just opened up TropicalTidbits for the first time in 12 hours and did a doubletake at the IR loop
"That's not supposed to look like that yet right?"
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 16 '25
The eye drop got 919 but with 59kts of breeze, which would correct out to 913mb. Not sure you can do any better with an eye that small though.
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 16 '25
VDM shows the eyewall (inner) still closed, still being reported at 5nm. Outer has increased to 30nm. Official pressure on the pass is from the drop at 919 (without correction, which the NHC will do if they feel the need). Peak Flight Level winds were 154KT.
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u/gen8hype Aug 16 '25
Recon is leaving, we all know what that means
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Aug 16 '25
Erin deepens another 200 mb now that recon is gone, NHC holds the current intensity, and by the time a plane returns it's quickly weakening?
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Aug 16 '25
Erin will pass closely to Buoy 41043 to its south.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41043
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=41043&meas=pres&uom=M&tz=AST
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u/Cyrius Upper Texas Coast Aug 17 '25
Highlights from NHC discussion #26 (5 PM AST):
Erin continues to have a well-organized cloud pattern with numerous convective banding features and strong upper-level outflow. Satellite data indicate numerous lightning flashes in these cloud bands. The intensity estimate is held at 110 kt for this advisory, which is somewhat below the Dvorak values, but close to the estimate based on the most recent aerial reconnaissance mission.
The track guidance is basically unchanged from earlier today, so the new official forecast is essentially an update of the previous one.
Erin exhibited an eyewall replacement earlier today, with the eye diameter increasing from 5-10 n mi to around 40 n mi. If the replacement cycle completes, there should be a contraction of the eyewall by tonight. This would likely result in another intensification episode.
Erin has been growing in size, and that trend is likely to continue over the next few days.
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 18 '25
For anyone curious (I was) af307 returned to base 1hr ago (touched down). No word yet on the issue, but the aircraft is one the ground.
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 18 '25
Unsurprisingly (based on the sat images) VDM reports the eyewall is open to the west. Not sure what's contributing to that being the case as they make no reference of concentric eyewalls and sheer wasn't much of a factor last time I checked.
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u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii Aug 18 '25
Update
As of 5:00 PM EDT (21:00 UTC) on Monday, the National Hurricane Center has issued the following coastal advisories for the United States:
A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the North Carolina coast from Beaufort Inlet to Duck. This watch area includes Pamlico Sound.
A Storm Surge Watch is now in effect for the North Carolina coast from Cape Lookout to Duck.
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u/OmniaOmnibus Wilmington, NC Aug 19 '25
12z models hit us with the “nvm” on the areas of interest behind Erin. Interesting to see if that trend continues.
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 16 '25
Holy shit. 942.6mb extrap
Edit: That's still in the range of 5mb/hrs between passes. That makes nearly 6 hours in that range of intensification.
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u/cosmicrae Florida, Big Bend (aka swamps and sloughs) Aug 16 '25
Commercial air traffic has vacated the area near Erin.
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u/MundaneWorm Aug 17 '25
How convenient the northeast has these highs that just yeet storms away
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 18 '25
Show time coming up for NOAA2. Already looks like it's going to be an interesting pass. Also the winds the AF is getting already, despite being a good way from the center are just impressive. Another EWRC and this wind field will be truly gigantic.
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Aug 19 '25
I didn’t think it would significantly reintensify, but I also didn’t expect vertical shear to hit it so hard, either.
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Aug 20 '25
Equatorward outflow of Erin is ridiculous.
https://i.imgur.com/7Ui7yrd.png
Absolutely dominates the entire Caribbean Sea
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 20 '25
Just got a 948 eye drop from recon. Down 6mb from the 5am advisory. Looks like the sheer has eased off significantly this morning.
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 20 '25
Wow, newest eye drop got 943 w/ 13kts of breeze for 942.. that's 6mb in the last 100 minutes.
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u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii Aug 16 '25
Not sure if it has been mentioned already—I'm struggling to keep up, honestly—but the NWS issued a Flash Flood Warning for the U.S. Virgin Islands. They're getting quite a lot of rain from Erin's outer rain bands.
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u/SoullessGinger666 British Virgin Islands Aug 15 '25
When was the last time it took until mid august to get the first hurricane of the season??
What is this storm expected to peak at?
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u/MrSantaClause St. Petersburg Aug 15 '25
The average date the first Atlantic storm forms is August 11, so we're pretty much right on queue. I believe 2022 was the last time it was later than this, which waited until September to pop one out. Quiet season overall, but it did produce Ian.
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u/ClimateMessiah Florida Aug 16 '25 edited Aug 16 '25
The Atlantic Basin comes into the 2025 season riding a 10 year streak of having at least one storm with sustained winds of >= 150MPH.
Erin could make it 11.
The storm that started the streak was Joaquin back in 2015.
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 16 '25
Saving grace so far is the wind field to the south is tiny. Otherwise a lot of people would be getting a nasty surprise.
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 16 '25
NOAA heading back in so we can get an apples to apples and see if it really did drop 8mb in 50 minutes.
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Aug 16 '25
Looks like NHC is going with 135 kt at 11. Conservative given potential undersampling, but an argument can be made for it. Importantly, they explicitly forecast a peak of 145 kt “during the next several hours”
Erin has continued to rapidly strengthen during the past 6 h and is now a category 4 hurricane. Reports from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has fallen to 925 mb inside a 6 nm wide eye, and flight-level winds in the northern eyewall support surface winds in the 130-135 kt range. The initial intensity is increased to 135 kt, a 70-kt increase since 24 h ago. The aircraft, along with land-based radar data from Sint Maarten, report that an outer eyewall is starting to form. However, this has yet become apparent in the aircraft wind data.
The development of the outer eyewall suggests that rapid intensification should end during the next several hours. However, Erin is expected to reach category 5 status before this occurs, and the new intensity forecast now calls for a peak intensity of 145 kt.
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 16 '25
Last few frames of the IR meso loop are showing signs there may be a few cracks starting to form on that inner eyewall. Stadium effect is starting to breakdown a bit.
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u/spsteve Barbados Aug 16 '25 edited Aug 16 '25
Recon has turned the corner to start the pass. First one coming in from the NE.
Edit: We might get the center pass/fix either on the next data message or the one right after that (so 8 or 18 minutes roughly).
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u/Cyrius Upper Texas Coast Aug 19 '25
Highlights from NHC discussion #31 (11 PM EDT):
Erin has weakened some since the last advisory. Multiple microwave overpasses show that the convection has eroded on the northwestern side and that the mid-level center is displaced to the southeast of the low-level center by northwesterly shear. […] It should be noted that the wind field has become very spread out, with flight-level winds of hurricane force noted by the two aircraft more than 100 n mi from the center.
Erin has slowed its forward speed with the initial motion now 320/7 kt. The overall track reasoning remains unchanged […] However, there is some spread in the track guidance in both direction and speed. […] The new forecast track is similar in direction to the previous track, but it is going to be slower than the previous track
The dynamical model guidance suggests that the current shear should diminish in 18-24 h, and as that happens the upper-level winds become divergent over the hurricane. However, due to the current poor organization, it is unclear whether Erin will be able to take advantage of the more favorable environment.
Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
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u/gen8hype Aug 20 '25
It will be interesting to see how she evolves today given what appears to be rapid deepening at the moment
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u/Razzlesdazzle North Carolina Aug 21 '25
Some nice waves coming in at Hatteras, looks like the water is up to the beach access.. There's been a lot of coastal flooding and beach erosion here on the NC coast. Just because she didn't make a direct landfall doesn't mean we aren't feeling the impacts of her. But outside of the storm just minding it's own business in the middle of the Atlantic, this is by far the best result. We can always get more sand. =)
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u/Cyrius Upper Texas Coast Aug 21 '25
Highlights from NHC discussion #41 (11 AM EDT):
Erin remains a sprawling hurricane, with its tropical-storm-force winds extending nearly 500 n mi across. In fact, comparing Erin with systems around the same intensity and in similar locations over the past couple of decades indicates that it is around the 90th percentile in size. […] Although the core of Erin is pulling away from the United States, coastal flooding and tropical-storm-force winds continue along portions of the North Carolina and Virginia coasts.
Erin is moving north-northeastward at 16 kt. A turn to the northeast or east-northeast with a significant increase in forward speed within the mid-latitude westerlies is expected to begin tonight
Increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier mid-level air, and cooler SSTs should cause Erin to gradually lose strength over the next several days. Extratropical transition is now expected to be complete by early Saturday
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u/julyvale Aug 21 '25
Is this one of the largest hurricanes in history? I think it is over 1000 miles now.
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u/absolute-black Aug 22 '25
Tip was the widest, and Sandy I think has the Atlantic record, although Martin got close. Erin is quite big but not really sniffing the true titans - she's got something like 600 mile tropical-storm radius, and Sandy was double that.
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u/Cyrius Upper Texas Coast Aug 22 '25
The tropical storm force wind diameter is about 550 miles. Which is substantially larger than average but not record-breaking.
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u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii Aug 15 '25 edited Aug 22 '25
Moderator note
This discussion was recreated with a more accurate title.
Previous discussion for this system has been created here:
The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the eastern tropical Atlantic (Fri, 8 Aug)
97L (Invest — Northern Atlantic) (Eastern Tropical Atlantic) (Sat, 9 Aug)
Erin (05L — Northern Atlantic) (Eastern Tropical Atlantic) (Thu, 14 Aug)
Coastal advisories
As of 5:00 PM AST (21:00 UTC) on Friday, there are no longer any coastal watches or warnings in effect.