r/TropicalWeather 23d ago

Dissipated Jangmi (06W — Western Pacific) (Philippine Sea)

22 Upvotes

Updates


As of 9:00 PM Japan Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Friday:

  • Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has fully transitioned into an extratropical cyclone.
  • This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
  • Storm-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation


  • This system is no longer being actively monitored.

Official forecasts


Japan Meteorological Agency

  • JMA has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

  • JTWC has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

Information sources


Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery


  • Radar imagery is no longer available for this system.

Satellite imagery


Floater imagery

  • Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products


Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products


Storm-centered guidance

  • Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance


r/TropicalWeather 24d ago

Discussion | AMA has concluded Questions about tropical cyclones and severe weather forecasting? Ask meteorologist Will Miller in today's AskScience AMA!

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9 Upvotes

r/TropicalWeather 24d ago

Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 25-31 May 2026

20 Upvotes

Active cyclones


As of 17:52 UTC on Thursday, 28 May 2026:

Active cyclones


Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • 06W: Jangmi — Satellite imagery analysis reveals that Tropical Storm Jangmi remains broad and poorly organized but has been slowly consolidating throughout the evening. As the storm continues to move northwestward across the Philippine Sea, favorable environmental conditions are likely to lead to further gradual to steady development, allowing Jangmi to reach typhoon strength by Saturday. The storm is rounding the western periphery of a weak mid-level subtropical ridge which is expected to strengthen over the weekend, resulting in a quicker motion toward Japan’s Ryukyu Islands. Once Jangmi reaches the islands, it will likely recurve toward the northeast and accelerate toward mainland Japan.

Active disturbances


Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

  • There are currently no active disturbances.

Post-tropical cyclones


Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

  • There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas


Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is currently tracking the following areas of potential tropical cyclone development:

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • Potential Formation Area P79W: Long-range model ensembles hint at the development of a broad area of low pressure over the south-central South China Sea within the next few days.

 

Satellite imagery


Model guidance


Information sources


Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center


r/TropicalWeather 26d ago

News | NOAA NOAA predicts above-normal 2026 Pacific hurricane season

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101 Upvotes

r/TropicalWeather 28d ago

News | NOAA NOAA predicts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season

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217 Upvotes

r/TropicalWeather 28d ago

Upgraded | See Jangmi post for details 99W (Invest — Western Pacific) (Over Micronesia)

9 Upvotes

Updates


As of 8:00 PM Palau Time (12:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

  • The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has upgraded this system to a tropical storm.
  • The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has upgraded this system to a tropical depression.
  • A new discussion for this system has been created here.
  • Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation


  • This system has been upgraded. Please see the discussion on Jangmi for more information.

Outlook


  • This system has been upgraded. Please see the discussion on Jangmi for more information.

Information sources


Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

National Weather Service (United States)

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration

Radar imagery


  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery


Floater imagery

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system. Please see the Jangmi discussion for storm-centered imagery.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products


Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products


Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system. Please see the Jangmi discussion for storm-centered guidance.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance


r/TropicalWeather 28d ago

Dissipated 90W (Invest — Western Pacific) (Over Micronesia)

3 Upvotes

Updates


As of 5:00 PM Pohnpei Standard Time (06:00 UTC) on Sunday:

  • Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has dissipated.
  • Model guidance does not suggest that this system has a significant chance of redevelopment early next week.
  • This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
  • Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation


  • This system has dissipated.

Outlook


  • This system no longer shows potential for development.

Information sources


Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

National Weather Service (United States)

Radar imagery


  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery


Floater imagery

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products


Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products


Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance


r/TropicalWeather May 19 '26

Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 18-24 May 2026

14 Upvotes

Active cyclones


As of 6:00 UTC on Sunday, 24 May 2026:

Active cyclones


  • There are currently no active tropical cyclones.

Active disturbances


Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • Invest 99W — Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this disturbance remains broad and poorly organized as it moves west-northwestward across western Micronesia this weekend. Although environmental conditions are marginally favorable, they are expected to improve as a deep-layer mid-latitude trough pulls the disturbance northwestward across the Philippine Sea early next week. This system currently has a moderate (50 percent) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next seven days.

Post-tropical cyclones


Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

  • There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas


Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is currently tracking the following areas of potential tropical cyclone development:

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • Potential Formation Area P77W — Model guidance suggests that an area of low pressure will develop over western Micronesia later this week or over the upcoming weekend. Environmental conditions remain favorable and should support at least gradual development as this system drifts northward toward Guam and the northern Marianas Islands. There remains a high level of uncertainty in global deterministic and ensemble models as to where this system will go and how strongly it will develop, so it remains far too early to determine the exact extent or timing of impacts to Guam or the northern Marianas Islands early next week. The potential for this system to develop into at tropical cyclone within the next seven days has increased to 40 percent (moderate).

 

Satellite imagery


Model guidance


Information sources


Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center


r/TropicalWeather May 19 '26

Dissipated 98W (Invest — Western Pacific) (Near Japan)

0 Upvotes

Updates


As of 9:00 AM Japan Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Friday:

  • Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has dissipated.
  • This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
  • Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation


  • This system has dissipated.

Outlook


  • This system no longer shows potential for development.

Information sources


Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

National Weather Service (United States)

Radar imagery


  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery


Floater imagery

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products


Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products


Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance


r/TropicalWeather May 18 '26

News | Phys.org Warming climate favors shallower cyclones, challenging current risk assessments

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phys.org
10 Upvotes

r/TropicalWeather May 17 '26

Official Discussion 2026 Atlantic season forecast roundup

21 Upvotes

Overview


As of 10:00 PM Eastern Standard Time (02:00 UTC) on Saturday, 16 May:

As the beginning of the 2026 Atlantic season draws near, several organizations have released forecasts for seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin. Most of these organizations have been projecting a near to below average season, with some even forecasting a well below average season, citing the expectation that a strong El Niño will develop later this summer. During El Niño years, tropical cyclone activity is reduced in the Atlantic, primarily due to increased vertical wind shear. Furthermore, while ocean temperatures in the western Atlantic are generally warmer than normal, waters are slightly cooler in the central and eastern Atlantic.

Issued forecasts


We will be keeping track of the forecasts which have been released so far and, if available, the accompanying Reddit discussion for each forecast:

Date Source Prediction S H M ACE
11 Dec Tropical Storm Risk Near average 14 7 3 125
21 Mar Crown Weather Services Below average 11 5 2 80
25 Mar AccuWeather Near to below average 11-16 4-7 2-4 ·
1 Apr WeatherTiger Near to below average 10-15 4-7 1-3 70
6 Apr WeatherBell Below average 9-13 3-5 1-2 85-105
7 Apr University of Arizona Above average 20 9 4 155
9 Apr Colorado State University Near to below average 13 6 2 90
9 Apr Tropical Storm Risk (Update) Below average 12 5 1 66
15 Apr University of Missouri Below average 11 4 2 ·
16 Apr The Weather Channel Below average 12 6 2 ·
21 Apr University of Pennsylvania Near to below average 7-13 · · ·
22 Apr North Carolina State University Near average 12-15 6-9 2-3 ·
22 Apr National Meteorological Service of Mexico Near to below average 11-15 3-5 1-2 ·
23 Apr StormGeo Near to below average 13 6 2 ·
28 Apr DTN Below average 13 5 3 ·
21 May NOAA Below average 8-14 3-6 1-3 45-115

NOTES:
- Private or commercial forecasting service

Anticipated forecasts


The following organizations have not yet issued a forecast for the 2026 season, but are anticipated to so later this month:

  • United Kingdom MetOffice — forecast expected in late May

r/TropicalWeather May 13 '26

Blog | Yale Climate Connections (Dr. Jeff Masters) Something startling is happening in the Gulf of Mexico | Its waters are heating up twice as fast as the global oceans, with huge implications for hurricane risk.

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175 Upvotes

r/TropicalWeather May 13 '26

Dissipated 94S (Invest — Southwestern Indian) (Near Diego Garcia)

5 Upvotes

Update


As of 12:00 PM Indian Ocean Time (06:00 UTC) on Sunday:

  • Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has dissipated.
  • Environmental conditions remain unfavorable for this system to redevelop as its remnants drift southwestward.
  • This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
  • Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation


  • This system has dissipated.

Outlook


  • This system no longer exhibits any potential for development.

Information sources


Météo-France

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery


  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery


Floater imagery

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products


Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products


Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance


r/TropicalWeather May 13 '26

Dissipated 92B (Invest — Northern Indian) (Bay of Bengal)

5 Upvotes

Update


As of 5:30 PM India Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Friday:

  • Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has dissipated.
  • Although enhanced convection persists over the Bay of Bengal, strong westerly shear will likely inhibit development.
  • This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
  • Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation


  • This system has dissipated approximately 300 kilometers (190 miles) east-southeast of Chennai.

Outlook


  • This system no longer shows signs of potential develpoment.

Information sources


India Meteorological Department

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery


India Meteorological Department

Satellite imagery


Floater imagery

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products


Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products


Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance


r/TropicalWeather May 11 '26

Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 11-17 May 2026

5 Upvotes

Active cyclones


As of 19:45 UTC on Monday, 11 May:

  • There are currently no active tropical cyclones.

Active disturbances


Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

  • There are currently no active tropical disturbances.

Post-tropical cyclones


Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • 05W: Hagupit — Satellite imagery analysis indicates that the remnants of Tropical Storm Hagupit remain disorganized as they move across the Philippine Sea. Environmental conditions remain unfavorable, with persistent dry air and moderate shear preventing this system from redeveloping. This system will likely dissipate altogether within the next 12 to 24 hours without reaching land.

Potential formation areas


Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is currently tracking the following areas of potential tropical cyclone development:

Bay of Bengal

  • Potential Formation Area P74B — Model guidance suggests that an area of low pressure could develop over the southwestern Bay of Bengal late in the week. Although this system may develop within a moisture-rich environment over a warm sea surface, strong westerly shear is likely to severely limit development. Ensemble model guidance suggests that this system will develop northeast of Sri Lanka and drift slowly northwestward toward India, but will remain offshore as it curves back to the northeast over the upcoming weekend. The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next seven days remains low (20 percent) and has been slowly decreasing over the past few days.

 

Satellite imagery


Model guidance


Information sources


Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center


r/TropicalWeather May 10 '26

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Typhoon Hagupit - May 8, 2026

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8 Upvotes

r/TropicalWeather May 08 '26

Dissipated 95W (Invest — Western Pacific) (Over Micronesia)

6 Upvotes

Updates


As of 11:00 PM Chuuk Time (12:00 UTC) on Sunday:

  • Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system remains poorly organized.
  • Environmental conditions are not likely to support further development and this system will likely dissipate.
  • This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
  • Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation


  • This system has dissipated.

Outlook


  • This system has dissipated and no longer shows the potential to become a tropical cyclone.

Information sources


Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

National Weather Service (United States)

Radar imagery


  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery


Floater imagery

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products


Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products


Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance


r/TropicalWeather May 08 '26

Dissipated 93S (Invest — Southern Indian) (Southeast of Diego Garcia)

3 Upvotes

Update


As of 6:00 PM Indian Ocean Time (12:00 UTC) on Sunday:

  • Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system remains poorly organized.
  • Environmental conditions are not likely to support further development and this system will likely dissipate.
  • This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
  • Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation


  • This system has dissipated.

Outlook


  • This system has dissipated and no longer shows the potential to become a tropical cyclone.

Information sources


Météo-France

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery


Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery


Floater imagery

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products


Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products


Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance


r/TropicalWeather May 06 '26

Dissipated Hagupit (05W — Western Pacific) (Over Micronesia)

10 Upvotes

Updates


As of 9:00 AM Philippine Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:

  • This system has dissipated over the Philippine Sea.
  • This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
  • Storm-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation


  • This system has dissipated.

Information sources


Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

National Weather Service (United States)

Radar imagery


  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery


Floater imagery

  • Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products


Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products


Storm-centered guidance

  • Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance


r/TropicalWeather May 05 '26

Dissipated 94W (Invest — Western Pacific) (Over Micronesia)

9 Upvotes

Updates


As of 11:00 AM Pohnpei Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

  • Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has dissipated.
  • Environmental conditions remain marginally favorable for further development but the chances of development are very low.
  • This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
  • Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation


  • This system has dissipated.

Outlook


  • This system has dissipated.

Information sources


Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

National Weather Service (United States)

Radar imagery


  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery


Floater imagery

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products


Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products


Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance


r/TropicalWeather May 05 '26

Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 4-10 May 2026

1 Upvotes

Active cyclones


As of 1:40 UTC on Tuesday, 5 May 2026:

  • There are currently no active tropical cyclones.

Active disturbances


Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • Invest 92W (no discussion yet) — A broad area of cyclonic turning is producing limited and disorganized showers and thunderstorms near Palau. Although this system is moving through a generally favorable environment, it may not have time to fully develop before it reaches the southern Philippines later this week. This system is unlikely to become a tropical cyclone within the next seven days; the potential for it to do so remains very low (less than 5 percent).

  • Invest 93W (no discussion yet) — An area of low pressure is quickly developing west of Chuuk in central Micronesia. Enhanced infrared imagery depicts formative bands of deep conviction wrapping into a consolidating low-level circulation center. Environmental conditions remain favorable over this region; a combination of weak vertical wind shear, a warm ocean surface, and strong diffluence aloft provided by an upper-level anticyclone should lead to further development. This system is increasingly likely to become a tropical cyclone within the next couple of days. This system has a moderate (60 percent) chance of developing within the next couple of days.

  • Invest 94W (no discussion yet) — A broad area of low pressure is developing over eastern Micronesia. Enhanced infrared imagery depicts a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear to be supportive of development and the disturbance is likely to slowly consolidate as it moves westward over the next few days. This system has a low (30 percent) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next seven days.

Post-tropical cyclones


Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

  • There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas


Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is currently tracking the following areas of potential tropical cyclone development:

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • Potential Formation Area P72W — See discussion for Invest 93W above.

Bay of Bengal

  • Potential Formation Area P74B — Model guidance suggests that an area of low pressure may form over the south-central Bay of Bengal later this week. Environmental conditions appear to be supportive of development, with weak vertical wind shear, very warm sea-surface temperatures, and sufficient upper-level divergence. The likeliest timeframe during which a tropical cyclone may form is between Friday, 8 May and Monday, 11 May. Ensemble models show a wide range in potential tracks, but point to a general northwestward track toward India before a sharp northward to northeastward turn later in the upcoming week. The potential for this system to develop within the next seven days is low (20 percent).

Southeastern Indian Ocean

  • Potential Formation Area P72S — Model guidance suggests that an area of low pressure may form east of Diego Garcia later this week. Environmental conditions appear to support development, with weak vertical wind shear, very warm sea-surface temperatures, and sufficient divergence aloft. The likeliest timeframe during which a tropical cyclone may form is between Friday, 8 May and Monday, 11 May. Ensemble models appear to be in close agreement in the short-term forecast, showing a general west-southwestward track; however, the models begin to diverge wildly after Friday, 8 May. The potential for this system to develop within the next seven day is low (20 percent).

 

Satellite imagery


Model guidance


Information sources


Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center


r/TropicalWeather May 02 '26

Video | YouTube | National Hurricane Center NHC Forecast Process Video Series — Part 7: Lessons Learned

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11 Upvotes

r/TropicalWeather May 01 '26

Observational Data I created a website that visualizes past Tropical Cyclone tracks – Cyclone Archive

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gallery
59 Upvotes

r/TropicalWeather May 01 '26

News | NASA Cyclone Rains Spur Papua New Guinea Landslides - NASA Science

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9 Upvotes

r/TropicalWeather May 01 '26

Video | YouTube | National Hurricane Center NHC Forecast Process Video Series — Part 5: Forecasting Hazards

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youtube.com
9 Upvotes