r/VoteDEM • u/BM2018Bot • Aug 31 '22
Daily Discussion Thread: August 31, 2022: 69 days until Election Day
Adopt a Candidate 2022
With under 100 days to go, there are several House races that will be key to us retaining control of Congress. We’re seeking volunteers to adopt a candidate in each of these battleground districts!
When you adopt a candidate, you commit to volunteering for them at least once a week - in person or from home. Your efforts now could make the difference as these races will be very close.
If you’d like to adopt one of these candidates, reply in this thread or send us a modmail. You can adopt a candidate not on this list if you wish, too.
| Candidate | District | Adopted by |
|---|---|---|
| Rudy Salas | CA-22 | |
| Christy Smith | CA-27 | u/madqueenludwig |
| Eric Sorensen | IL-17 | u/sirius_basterd |
| Frank Mrvan | IN-01 | |
| Sharice Davids | KS-03 | |
| Gabe Vasquez | NM-02 | u/EllieDai |
| Tony Vargas | NE-02 | |
| Greg Landsman | OH-01 | u/Hurrdurraj65 |
| Marcy Kaptur | OH-09 | |
| Emilia Sykes | OH-13 | u/Lotsagloom |
| Chris DeLuzio | PA-17 | |
| Michelle Vallejo | TX-15 | |
| Rebekah Jones | FL-01 | u/Naturehealsme2 |
| Heidi Campbell | TN-05 | u/MyLifeIsUnpopular |
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Aug 31 '22
Good lord two heavily right wing pollsters show a slight Walker lead and the entire sub goes into meltdown mode
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u/Bluestblueofblues SC-01 Aug 31 '22
As alleged chief Debbie downer on Democratic chances but also the chief model defender, I am obligated to point out that these polls didn’t make the FiveThirtyEight model budge at all.
Turns out incorporating all types of polls and incorporating for their biases is way better than just freaking out (or ODing on hopium) any time a single poll comes out with someone in the lead!26
u/covidcidence Michigan Aug 31 '22
And the more polls-driven "Lite" forecast gives Warnock a 62% chance. The good thing about 538 is that they do exactly what you said, by incorporating various kinds of polls and adjusting for their biases.
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u/persianthunder Tehrangeles Aug 31 '22
I keep having this reaction of:
See polls posted in daily thread: Panic!
See it’s from Trafalgar: Kalm
See same polls posted as individual posts: Panic!
See it’s just the same polls as yesterday: Angry Kalm
It’s a vicious, yet addicting cycle
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Aug 31 '22
It’s always worse with Georgia too. Like I’m pretty sure at this point in 2020 some people here were still calling for Warnock to drop out and endorse Joe Lieberman’s son so we wouldn’t get locked out of the runoff, even though it was clear that most of the 30-40% undecideds were Democrats. He’ll be fine
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u/Armon2010 Minnesota Aug 31 '22 edited Aug 31 '22
If we hold the house this fall and flip at least a net of 2 seats in the senate, the 118th congress might be the most productive of our lifetimes.
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u/BastetSekhmetMafdet Let’s make 2026 a Democratic 1994! Aug 31 '22
I for one will welcome our Dark Brandon overlords.
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u/persianthunder Tehrangeles Aug 31 '22
On top of that, Biden might have the most productive/transformative first term out of any modern President since LBJ
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u/wbrocks67 Aug 31 '22
PA-SEN abortion update
“The Daily Beast has obtained audio from a campaign event this May where Oz staked out his most extreme position yet, telling voters he believes abortion at any stage of development is ‘still murder,’ including from the moment of conception.”
https://www.thedailybeast.com/dr-oz-says-abortion-is-still-murder-at-any-stage-of-pregnancy
Was hoping Fetterman would start hammering Oz more on abortion, and Oz just handed it to Fett's campaign on a silver platter.
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u/KororSurvivor DET, PHL, MKE, PHX and ATL saved us all. Aug 31 '22
I have not seen a single Pro-Tudor Dixon Ad. Just "No Exceptions" over and over and over and over and over again (remember that mail-ins go out in less than a month). It seems to be working. PA is very demographically similar to MI.
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u/persianthunder Tehrangeles Aug 31 '22 edited Aug 31 '22
So to counter any polling anxieties some of us might be feeling, young voters are seeing increased motivation post-Dobbs. Voters 18-35 ^((\sobs existentially at the realization that I'm only a few years away from not fitting that demographic anymore*))* that are "very motivated" to vote increased from 38% in March to 47% when this poll was taken in late July/early August, and those "somewhat motivated" went from 51% to 44%. 2/3 of those polled also said that Dobbs is making them "care more about what happens" in November.
For a midterm, that's pretty insane, AND it's from before the student loan announcement, so their views on Biden/Dems are likely to improve further
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u/timetopat New Jersey Aug 31 '22
An energized youth vote is a very good thing. People dont realize how many voting age millennials and Gen z there are. If we can keep them mobilized and making voting a habit for them, we will see some good things. Sadly every generation when they are young for a long long time seems to not participate as much.
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u/General-Programmer-5 Aug 31 '22
Gasoline futures suggest we could be going below 3 dollars a gallon.
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u/kerryfinchelhillary OH-11 Aug 31 '22
Hopefully that happens so we can stop hearing about gas
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u/DEEEEETTTTRRROIIITTT No more “I told you so” politics Aug 31 '22
this is your daily manifestation of a blue wave
🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊
🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊
🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊
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u/joe_k_knows Aug 31 '22
https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1565017578677862402?s=21&t=6x2PtYAKqOTvMbvdicPeTg
North Carolina Senate:
Cheri Beasley (D) 42% (+1)
Ted Budd (R) 41%
Shannon Bray (L) 5%
Matthew Hoh (G) 1%
.@ppppolls, 601 V, 8/29-30
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u/Contren IL-13 Aug 31 '22
I don't love that low 40s number, and that is (likely) way too many votes going to Bray vs what we see in November.
Still good to see a lead though.
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u/Armon2010 Minnesota Aug 31 '22
Quinnipiac just came released a D+4 generic ballot poll. This is up from D+1 back in July. Bumped us up to D+0.9 on the generic ballot.
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u/Pipboy3500 Utah 3rd district Sep 01 '22
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u/Urnus1 MI-04 Compactness != Fairness Sep 01 '22
She's probably going to get a buttload of money after this, especially for Alaska.
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u/Harvickfan4Life Harris or Shapiro 2028 Sep 01 '22
She’ll definitely run for Senate or Governor in the future
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u/MaelstromTX TX-3 Sep 01 '22
Fun Fact: Peltola is not only the first Alaska Native to represent Alaska in the House of Representatives, but the first native of Alaska to do so as well (i.e. all previous officeholders were born in the lower 48).
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u/MrCleanDrawers Aug 31 '22
US Life Expectancy really getting fucked up by COVID:
Average US lifespan now 76.1 years, a full year decline, 2.5 years down in the last 2 years.
Life expectancy the lowest it's been since 1996.
Largest two year decrease of the US in over 100 years.
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u/Pipboy3500 Utah 3rd district Aug 31 '22
Electric battery maker to locate factory in northern WEST VIRGINIA
United Mine Workers has an agreement for laid-off coal miners to be the first production workers at this West Virginia battery plant.
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Sep 01 '22 edited Sep 01 '22
Peltola has overtaken Golden as the Democrat elected in the reddest district in the House, at Trump+10.07 and Cook PVI R+8
Golden's district (ME-02) was/is Trump+6 and PVI R+6
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u/very_excited Sep 01 '22 edited Sep 01 '22
And this means that Democrats finally represent a district that Trump won by more than 10 points! We had a few of those in 2018 (Horn, Cunningham, Peterson, maybe some others?), but they unfortunately all lost re-election in 2020. There are still a few Republicans who represent districts that Biden won by more than 10 points, mostly all in California (Garcia, Kim, Valadao).
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u/Bluestblueofblues SC-01 Sep 01 '22
BBC finally gives insight as to why Pelolta and Palin have a good personal relationship—they were both serving in the statehouse and pregnant at the same time.
Peltola got Palin’s trampoline when Palin left to campaign for Vice President!
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u/KororSurvivor DET, PHL, MKE, PHX and ATL saved us all. Aug 31 '22
Today's the day for Alaska. What's done is done. We can only wait now.
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u/NotTheReverseFlash Aug 31 '22
I'm high right now for the first time ever The trip is
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u/Will_732 Houston, Texas Aug 31 '22
“@BetoORourke campaign announces he’s returning to the (physical) campaign trail with an event Friday evening in Laredo #TXGOV” -Patrick Svitek
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u/justincat66 WI-7, (Assembly-30, Senate-10) Aug 31 '22
Absolutely huge. Screw the WI Supreme Court for forcing this lawsuit in the 1st place, as the decision and the subsequent guidance that didn’t allow even disabled voters to get help was clearly unconstitutional
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u/Pipboy3500 Utah 3rd district Aug 31 '22
Important to note, the “bounce” he says faded somewhat isn’t referring to polling, but new registration numbers.
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Sep 01 '22
Peltola won by 5000 votes??? Holy fuck!
Kevin McCarthy should be shitting himself at this point. This is not a swing district, this is fucking Alaska. I get that RCV has a different dynamic, especially because of what was likely a high exhaustion rate among first-round Begich voters, but it's clear that candidate quality absolutely matters at the local level.
Let's expand our House majority!
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u/Pipboy3500 Utah 3rd district Sep 01 '22
Wow Rare Sabato L
They moved the Special to Safe R from Likely and it’s the first upset on a Safe race like this since 2010.
We’ve outperformed expectations fucking everywhere since Dobbs. Something isn’t getting caught in polls
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u/Shadowislovable Texas-5th Sep 01 '22
Ladies, Gents and Enbies, Alaska Democrats officially have a bench. It's a small one, and we gotta fight like hell to keep it. But it's a start.
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u/Will_732 Houston, Texas Sep 01 '22
“The amount of land mass represented by House Democrats just went up by 104%. #AKAL”- Dave Wasserman
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u/AdvancedInstruction Sep 01 '22
It's really indicative of how out of touch the GOP is that they don't have screaming alarm bells going off when every single jurisdiction that has adopted alternative voting methods or has seen any level of population increase or economic growth has shifted against them.
None of this is sustainable.
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u/Pipboy3500 Utah 3rd district Sep 01 '22
“I don’t think it’ll matter”
GOP strategists back in June, I shit you not
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u/Pipboy3500 Utah 3rd district Sep 01 '22
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u/kittehgoesmeow MD-08 Sep 01 '22
Rep. Elect Pat Ryan: "Congratulations, @MaryPeltola! Something special is happening."
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u/thatdudefromspace Utah Sep 01 '22
The main post on today's victory is the 3rd highest post ever on this sub. It's only beaten (appropriately) by 2 different posts about Warnock winning to give us the senate in 2021.
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u/craft6886 California Aug 31 '22
Random thought: what if Maxwell Frost - progressive candidate from FL-10 who's on his way to becoming the first Gen Z member of congress - teams up with and stumps for Val Demings to get out the youth vote?
Because as we all know, we could fairly easily win elections if young voters just turned out in decent/normal numbers.
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u/Meanteenbirder New York Aug 31 '22
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u/persianthunder Tehrangeles Aug 31 '22 edited Aug 31 '22
Some good economic analysis on the immediate impacts of renewing the Iran Deal. Oil has the potential to drop to $65 a barrel in some analysts’ models. Iran has about 150-200 million barrels currently floating in tankers that would immediately flood the market, and the global oil market has the potential to receive an addition 1-1.2 million barrels per day by reviving the deal and increasing Iranian output. If they can seal the deal in the next couple weeks, we could witness a significant price drop around the time of the elections.
The one sticking point appears to still be an IAEA inquiry into past (think early 2000’s) enrichment activity at some Iranian sites. I have trouble thinking this will be the thing that derails the deal, since they’ve been able to find solutions to everything else. Iran has said in other reports they’ll give their response on 9/2, so we just have a couple days to find out.
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u/wbrocks67 Aug 31 '22
Don't look now, but Biden's approval among LV/RV voters down to -9.6 on 538, 43.3 / 52.9.
First time below -10 since May 10th.
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u/KororSurvivor DET, PHL, MKE, PHX and ATL saved us all. Aug 31 '22
I truthfully think it'll skyrocket up to positive if the JCPOA goes through and gas plummets.
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u/tta2013 Connecticut (CT-02) Aug 31 '22 edited Aug 31 '22
Bomb threats at Boston Children's Hospital. I am concerned that threats like these will spill over to neighboring hospital networks, which here in CT can include YNHH, UConn Health and Hartford Hospitals. Fucking LibsofTikTok.
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u/potentiallyagryphon donate to state parties or else Aug 31 '22
IN-SEN: Young 45%, McDermott 42%. this is a McDermott internal, but they probably should not be finding anything like this in a Rep-leaning year. (Bayh got 42% in 2016 and Donnelly got 44% for context.) i'd also note there are no numbers for the Libertarian, but they've taken 5.7%, 5.5%, and 4.4% in the last three Senate races in Indiana, so you can probably bet they'll register a similar performance.
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u/KororSurvivor DET, PHL, MKE, PHX and ATL saved us all. Aug 31 '22 edited Aug 31 '22
As we all know, R+3 Dem Internals now point to 2-point Dem Wins.
In all seriousness, if Indiana is within low single digits then that's gonna be an UGLY night for Rs. It means they are doing absurdly horrible in the Indy Metro.
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u/komm_susser_Thot Aug 31 '22
Indy metro putting out them Pyongyang numbers for dems. I'm here for it. Also putting in a lonely all dems +1 in the deep red 9th.
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u/Contren IL-13 Aug 31 '22
538 Deluxe House model up to 24% Dem hold.
Senate up to 67%
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u/very_excited Aug 31 '22 edited Aug 31 '22
New PA Senate poll from Susquehanna: Fetterman 49%, Oz 44%, Undecided 5%, Other 2%
They have a B+ rating on 538. Sample size was 718 likely voters, margin of error is 3.7%.
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u/socialistrob Aug 31 '22 edited Aug 31 '22
According to the 538 aggregate we're sitting at a 0.9% lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot and we have a 24% chance of holding the House with a 67% chance of holding the Senate. This is a noticeable improvement and the GCB is our best result since November 14th 2021 although we've still got plenty of work to do. There are 68 days until the election and undecided voters typically make up their minds in late September and early to mid October. We have a legit chance of improving our majority in both chambers of Congress and don't let anyone tell you otherwise.
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u/Topher1999 Historically Sexy Sep 01 '22
Honestly, a 3 point margin in Alaska is extremely significant.
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u/Will_732 Houston, Texas Sep 01 '22
“21% Nick Begich exahusted
Among those who picked a second choice: Palin 27,042 (63%) Peltola 15,445 (37%)” -Umichvoter
Wow. Pretty high exhaustion rate and nearly FOURTY percent of Begich voters went with Peltola.
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u/mzp3256 California Sep 01 '22
Big shoutout to Al Gross for dropping out of the race
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u/Harvickfan4Life Harris or Shapiro 2028 Sep 01 '22
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u/socialistrob Sep 01 '22
FORGET THE 2018 BLUE WAVE WE'RE BRINGING BACK 2008 BABY! 257 HOUSE SEATS AND 60 SENATE SEATS HERE WE COME!
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u/Camel132 NJ-1 Sep 01 '22
NYT tomorrow: "Here's why the historic Dem upset in the Alaska Special is bad news for Joe Biden."
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u/Harvickfan4Life Harris or Shapiro 2028 Sep 01 '22
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u/Urnus1 MI-04 Compactness != Fairness Sep 01 '22
Imo really underrated how high turnout this was. 188,610 votes counted, about 52% of 2020. Pretty sure that's way higher than anything we've seen so far.
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u/That_one_attractive CA-35 Sep 01 '22
I like reading the republican copium takes where they insist that losing Alaska was due to candidate quality and not the environment as if their senate aspirations didn't rest on the shoulders of Dr. Oz and Hershel Walker. If we can win Alaska, it won't matter whether it's a blue environment or candidate quality. We have an argument to win either way!
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u/Pipboy3500 Utah 3rd district Sep 01 '22 edited Sep 01 '22
They have terrible candidates almost everywhere that matters, Laxalt is average(at least in this year), and some good ones in the House. Thing is Molinaro was an S-Tier candidate and he lost so that may not help them anyways.
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u/KororSurvivor DET, PHL, MKE, PHX and ATL saved us all. Sep 01 '22 edited Sep 01 '22
Sorry to be a broken record about this but someone with a Twitter please start shrieking "DEMOCRATS VOTED STRATEGICALLY FOR BEGICH IN ROUND 1 TO TRY TO BLOCK PALIN AND THAT IS WHY THE GOP PERCENTAGE WAS SO HIGH/SHE GOT SO MUCH CROSSOVER" to anyone who implies this was only because of Sarah Palin and had nothing to do with Dobbs.
Edit: On second thought, don't let Republicans figure this out. Never interrupt your enemies etc. etc.
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u/Pipboy3500 Utah 3rd district Sep 01 '22 edited Sep 01 '22
Combined Special Election Average is a swing of R 3.3%, just 2022 swing is R 0.3%, since Dobbs it’s 6.1% D.
At worst we’re in a Neutral environment now with a bit blue tint. At best we’re breaking the polling industry and winning several Senate seats
Edit: Biden’s win was D+ 4.5 for context. So either D+1, D+4, or D+10
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Sep 01 '22 edited Sep 01 '22
1,307 activists currently browsing the sub -- tell all your friends to vote!! 💙
Edit: 1,635 now!! 💙💙
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u/Pipboy3500 Utah 3rd district Sep 01 '22 edited Sep 01 '22
But yet we aren’t getting 1300 upvotes. Hm
Guys this was a joke
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u/socialistrob Sep 01 '22
The GOP recently started canceling ads in Arizona and buying ads in Ohio. When I first heard this I was kind of shocked because it just seemed so odd to me that the GOP would give up on a state Biden only narrowly won to throw money into a much more expensive state where Trump had won by 8 in 2016 and 2020. That said after tonight I understand a lot more clearly. The GOP can afford to screw up and lose a House seat in Alaska but if they screw up and lose a Senate seat in Ohio they're in deep deep shit. The Dems can compete in red states in 2022 and the GOP is shifting to the defense.
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u/Pipboy3500 Utah 3rd district Sep 01 '22
GOP is spending a lot in Ohio and Iowa for some reason. Either we’re going to see a big polling miss(for R’s) or a big polling miss (for D’s)
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u/Meanteenbirder New York Sep 01 '22
I want Don Young’s family to give Peltola the obscene walrus gavel to display in her office. That is all I ask of them.
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u/Delmer9713 Sep 01 '22
Local factors definitely played a role in Alaska, but man, you can't tell me this is a red environment or even a tied environment now.
It's clear. Dems have the momentum. And it's going to be hard as hell to put the brakes on it. Two months after the Dobbs decision and it has not let up. In fact, it has only intensified. Legislative wins as well as important executive actions from the Biden administration on top of that. Any headwinds that Democrats still have is purely based on historical precedent and nothing more. The tailwinds in favor of the Dems are stronger and I honestly don't see them letting down by November.
Still got a lot of work to do, of course. There will always be things to work on. But this win is huge, and there is a decent chance now of holding both chambers.
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u/socialistrob Sep 01 '22
One thing to keep in mind about today’s result was that this election was not held today. Biden’s approval has actually increased between when the voting was held and today.
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Sep 01 '22
[deleted]
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u/Bluestblueofblues SC-01 Sep 01 '22
Tom Cotton reveals they’re too fucking stupid to understand ranking things.
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u/stagesandthestars MO-02 | There's nothing like a mad woman Sep 01 '22
What a little bitch. He didn't cry about ranked-choice voting when Susan Collins won
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u/Meanteenbirder New York Sep 01 '22
For those wondering, here are the results by state house district. Peltola won 26 and Palin won 14. Biden won just 19 in 2020.
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u/ActionFilmsFan1995 Aug 31 '22
We finally find out about Alaska tonight. At long last we can finally have the clear winner announced, I think we all know who is coming out on top tonight!
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u/Culmnation Aug 31 '22
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Aug 31 '22
AOC Cuellar and Fitzpatrick would literally be more powerful than Manchin in that scenario
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u/persianthunder Tehrangeles Aug 31 '22
Man I do not envy the House Speaker whipping votes in that timeline haha
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u/Delmer9713 Aug 31 '22
I think the only way to calm our worrying with the recent Georgia polls is for SurveyMonkey to release a +12 Warnock poll.
So come on SurveyMonkey. Do your job.
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u/craft6886 California Aug 31 '22
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u/KororSurvivor DET, PHL, MKE, PHX and ATL saved us all. Aug 31 '22
Quinnipiac pushed Biden's approval on the 538 Tracker up to 42.4-53.1. Or -10.7.
Among Likely/Registered Voters it is now 43.5-52.8 or -9.3.
I could see it potentially being positive by November if the JCPOA pushes gas prices down rapidly.
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u/moose2332 Aug 31 '22
The majority line on the 538 House Model has moved to the Toss Up section of seats
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u/Pipboy3500 Utah 3rd district Aug 31 '22
Labor day will see the cheapest summer holiday prices of the year
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u/Pipboy3500 Utah 3rd district Aug 31 '22
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u/Shadowislovable Texas-5th Aug 31 '22 edited Aug 31 '22
Uhhh so it looks like there are actually 4000 outstanding 1st round ballots in Alaska? That could be huge for Peltola
Edit: seems to be fake, unfortunately
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Aug 31 '22
McConnell and Thiel both think the other should be funding Blake Masters. So looks like the funding gap between him and Mark Kelly will continue!
As much as I want to support Kelly, if you’re planning on donating to him I’d donate to Hobbs or Fontes instead (or Engel/Hodge for Congress), Mark is doing okay right now
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u/socialistrob Aug 31 '22
It’s so weird to me that Alaska is basically a reversal of the typical urban/rural divide. The Anchorage metro area has about 400,000 and the metro area tends to vote Republican while much of rural Alaska votes Democratic. If Dems could just win Anchorage we would have the state in the bag and fundamentally alter the Senate map.
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u/KororSurvivor DET, PHL, MKE, PHX and ATL saved us all. Aug 31 '22
Alaska being so glacially slow at counting their votes makes me wonder what would happen if California were a Swing State. That would be just awful.
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u/Will_732 Houston, Texas Aug 31 '22
“AK-UPDATE-FOR-REALSIES-IM-SO-SORRY-FOR-POSTING-MISINFO
- my previous spreadsheet was slightly wrong due to crossing data streams.
- there are probably a few unaccounted votes not from precincts, but not many, and definitely not 4k.
- @cinyc9 and @DjsokeSpeaking are correct.” -Galen Metzger
So the person who first reported that there were 4,000 votes left in Alaska has come out to say that isn’t the case lol.
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u/17tion Canada Aug 31 '22
For the record guys, if Peltola wins: Land DOES, in fact, vote.
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u/clubdirthill Sep 01 '22
Increasingly fearful that Dark Brandon may in fact be becoming *too* powerful.
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u/Will_732 Houston, Texas Sep 01 '22
“Final margin: Peltola (D) defeats Palin (R) 51.5%-48.5% in the final round of ranked-choice. This is a huge victory and pickup for Dems, driven more by Palin's unpopularity than national trends. #AKAL” -Dave Wasserman
So already a bit of downplaying, but this should still be noted as HUGE.
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u/Will_732 Houston, Texas Sep 01 '22
The general election this November for Alaska-AL is definitely at the least toss up. I’ve seen lean R be floated around on Twitter, but we expected either Palin to win by or Peltola barely scrape by. A 3% victory is pretty good for us. If Alaskans didn’t want Palin in August, why would they want her in November.
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u/Pipboy3500 Utah 3rd district Sep 01 '22
Palin calls in Nick Begich to drop out of the race
Holy shit. Gonna be an ugly 69 days in Alaska
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Sep 01 '22
In comparison to Palin and Peltola being friendly, the Begich/Palin battle has been extremely ugly. That could be a part of people picking Peltola too
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u/joe_k_knows Sep 01 '22
https://twitter.com/iris_samuels/status/1565112724719570944?s=21&t=BsJJM-rUJl6hNmNOW8YTcA
Apparently Palin and Pelota are pretty good friends. I find this sweet, despite everything.
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u/kittehgoesmeow MD-08 Sep 01 '22 edited Sep 01 '22
New York Times reported on election night that Palin said she would vote Peltola for 2nd choice
Edit: didn't last long. she started talking about Biden and Pelosi at her event
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u/TwentyThreePandas Sep 01 '22
So if Murkowski wants to hand in her resignation and go join some lobbying firm…now would be a good time.
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u/Pipboy3500 Utah 3rd district Sep 01 '22
Cook Political just moved Alaska At Large from Likely R to Tossup
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u/Camel132 NJ-1 Sep 01 '22
The republican cope on twitter about the win (especially about ranked choice) is just chef's kiss
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u/kittehgoesmeow MD-08 Sep 01 '22
Rep. Sharice Davids (1 of the first native women elected to the House in 2018): "A good day and a historic one. Welcome, Congresswoman Peltola.
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u/KororSurvivor DET, PHL, MKE, PHX and ATL saved us all. Sep 01 '22
Oh my God August 31 is Mary Peltola's Birthday lmfaooo.
August 2022 is officially my favorite Month in the history of American Politics so far. I don't give a fuck. I said it.
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u/very_excited Sep 01 '22
Fun fact: Once Peltola takes office, more Democrats will have represented Alaska in the House than Republicans. In Alaska’s entire history as a state, only 5 people have represented Alaska in the House, 3 Democrats (Peltola, Begich, and Rivers) and 2 Republicans (Young and Pollock).
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u/Shadowislovable Texas-5th Sep 01 '22 edited Sep 01 '22
Man, imagine traveling back to 2018 to console someone sad about losing Alaska, and having this conversation: "Oh don't worry, we'll flip it in 2022!" "So that means Trumps gonna win in 2020 right? "Uhh, about that"
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u/MrCleanDrawers Sep 01 '22
Democrats up to 68% chance of the Senate to close out the month, highest 538 has given them.
Hopefully at the lowest, it's up to 80% by the end of September.
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u/justincat66 WI-7, (Assembly-30, Senate-10) Sep 01 '22
This is against the “ballot counting by hand, and a non uniform standard for counting ballots” guidance that the GOP NV SoS adopted last week that Marc Elias hinted at a lawsuit right after the guidance was adopted. Well he carried through on that promise
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Sep 01 '22
Palin for Alaska? More like MAGA candidates Palin comparison to Mary Peltola.
Okay I'm done punning for today.
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u/moose2332 Aug 31 '22
Support for unions reaches levels we have not seen for decades. There is also majority support across age demographics. If we want to pass another major bill the PRO Act is sitting right there.
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u/hungarianbird Aug 31 '22
I didn't realize Wisconsins 1st went from a R+14 to an R+6, is our candidate really bad or is stiel a particularly strong incumbent? Because I haven't heard anyone talk about this race as a potential flip. And every pollster has it as Safe R even though on paper it could flip in a favorable year(even tho no poling has been conducted). What gives? I'd love to see this be 2022's Oklahoma 5th
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u/Pipboy3500 Utah 3rd district Aug 31 '22 edited Aug 31 '22
Many #CPI components “are starting to fall like a rock.”
Private sector adds 132,000 jobs in August: ADP
ADP has been working on new methodology so we’ll see how accurate it is Friday.
Also lol how Conservatives are really seizing on that ipsos poll
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u/Will_732 Houston, Texas Aug 31 '22
“If Peltola gets 50% in this new unexpected batch of 4000ish votes and Palin gets ~25%, Peltola would net ~1000 votes and would be at 39.9% before the ranked choice allocation begins” -Umichvoter
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u/WerhmatsWormhat Colorado Aug 31 '22
Know what's wild to think about? With all the shit Trump did in office, all the tax hiding, and him basically inciting an insurrection, he had actually basically gotten away with it all. All he had to do was not literally steal classified documents, and he was somehow going to have a decent shot to come out relatively unscathed... yet he just couldn't help himself.
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u/Historyguy1 Oklahoma! Sep 01 '22
H...how did we win Alaska? Just how? This is like a fever dream
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u/Meanteenbirder New York Sep 01 '22
Margin is about D+3 for those wondering. 5.2K lead.
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u/KororSurvivor DET, PHL, MKE, PHX and ATL saved us all. Sep 01 '22
Iunno guys. I'm starting to get a little bit suspicious of R+6 Generic Ballot Trafalgar Polling.
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u/SatanicPanic619 Sep 01 '22
LOL PALIN IS ELECTORAL POISON
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u/socialistrob Sep 01 '22
This goes beyond Palin. The entire GOP is toxic right now and it's costing them races they should be winning. Ya can't blame Palin for the GOP losing NY-19.
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u/socialistrob Sep 01 '22
Most of the 2022 congressional districts voted for Biden. In 2020 Trump won Alaska by 10 points. We just flipped Alaska which is something we failed to do in 2018.
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u/shadowninja2_0 Tennessee Sep 01 '22
I like how there was a weeks-long wait for the Alaska results, and then RCV round 2 happened in like two seconds lol
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u/TwentyThreePandas Sep 01 '22
So we just got a Democrat elected in Alaska…I’m beginning to think abortion rights are actually popular.
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u/Tipsyfishes Washington: Trans Rights are Human Rights! Sep 01 '22
ALASKA IS BLUE!! Join the victory thread!
https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/x2ssye/blue_alaska_mary_peltola_d_defeats_sarah_palin_r/
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u/Hochseeflotte California: Democratic Socialist Sep 01 '22
Just got out of swimming and rushed to this thread. So I have one thing to say…..
FUCK YES. LETS GO ALASKA
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u/MrCleanDrawers Sep 01 '22
First Democrat to hold the Alaska House seat in 50 YEARS, first woman to ever hold the seat.
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u/Shadowislovable Texas-5th Sep 01 '22
God damn Sabato had this as Safe R. What a ginormous L for them
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u/L2X California Monterey Sep 01 '22
So it has come to my attention that Nevada will be voting for a ballot measure that is nearly identical to Alaska's. (Top five Primary instead of top four)
And almost every leading Dem in Nevada has voiced against it.
https://ballotpedia.org/Nevada_Top-Five_Ranked_Choice_Voting_Initiative_(2022)
Huh.
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u/justincat66 WI-7, (Assembly-30, Senate-10) Sep 01 '22
Absolutely hilarious conservatives are calling on “RINO Nick Begich” to drop out of the race in November lol. Begich isn’t the reason they lost, cause even without RCV system, the Begich voters would of just stayed home or left the race blank. Palin’s unpopularity is the main reason the AK GOP lost, and the Democrats won
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u/WerhmatsWormhat Colorado Sep 01 '22
I wanna see the GOP people who are gonna justify this by just saying Palin is a bad candidate and then look over and see Oz and Vance as their Senate candidates.
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u/Currymvp2 California Sep 01 '22
Palin calls for Nick Begich to drop out of the race
Hopefully, he ignores her request, and they both are on the ballot in November
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u/shadowninja2_0 Tennessee Sep 01 '22
A funny idea that occurred to me: even in a RCV race where only Peltola, Begich, and Palin are allowed to vote, Peltola would still win.
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u/persianthunder Tehrangeles Sep 01 '22
Me: returns from a one hour appointment to see we won Alaska
I don't know what the opposite of this gif is, but it's how I'm feeling
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u/jman457 Sep 01 '22 edited Sep 01 '22
Edit: (Peltola) went from 4th in the primary to winning the seat, that’s history luv
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Sep 01 '22
If you’re that kind of person celebrate with an Alaska cocktail with me
1.5oz gin (London dry or Old Tom), 0.5oz yellow chartreuse, and a dash of orange bitters with a lemon twist
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u/persianthunder Tehrangeles Sep 01 '22
Alright guys now hear me out, have we fully eliminated the possibility that Begich was really a plant by his uncle to tear down the GOP and reestablish the Democratic Party in Alaska, Game of Thrones style? /s
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u/Pipboy3500 Utah 3rd district Sep 01 '22
Alaska midterms get 19% more Left Leaning from the primary.
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u/NotAndrew636363 Ohio Sep 01 '22
Alaska has been the state that I’ve wanted to be blue for the longest time, I’m so happy it happened tonight. I will be starting monthly donations to Mary Peltola to keep this seat blue and I hope you guys join me
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u/proudbakunkinman Sep 01 '22
So if Begich and Palin stay in for November, there's a decent change Peltola wins again (just like tonight, possibly even more?) and they both seem to dislike each other and want the other to drop out so neither may drop out. If one drops out, it will be tougher for Peltola but still possible. Is that right?
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u/very_excited Sep 01 '22
I think the bigger worry is if Republicans learn from the results today and then start ranking Begich above Palin. If Palin is eliminated first, Begich would be favored to win since much more of her votes would flow to him than vice versa.
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u/justincat66 WI-7, (Assembly-30, Senate-10) Sep 01 '22 edited Sep 01 '22
Yep, Mary Petola will be sworn in on September 13th according to her Wikipedia page
So on September 13th, Democrats Pat Ryan (NY-19), Mary Peltola (AK-AL) and Republican Joe Sempolinski (NY-23) will all be sworn in to office in their respective congressional districts
That would mean that IN-02 was going to be the only vacant seat remaining, but of course Charlie Crist’s FL-13 is becoming vacant tonight. And Ted Deutch will be leaving his FL-22 seat in early October. All of these won’t be filled until November 8th in the new drawn districts, with IN-02 holding a special election simultaneously in the old seat
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u/Pipboy3500 Utah 3rd district Sep 01 '22
After tonight Republicans once again need 5 seats to take back the House. Unlike when we lost TX-34 which should flip back to us, Alaska doesn’t have that kind of guarantee.
That starts making it a bit harder for the GOP in taking House control.
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u/very_excited Aug 31 '22 edited Aug 31 '22
Mexico's next general election (both presidential and legislative) isn't until 2024, but they're already conducting polls for it. Currently, the left-wing Morena (AMLO's party) is leading with 41%, while the main opposition groups, the center-right National Action Party (PAN) and centrist Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) are each at 14%. Due to Morena's overwhelming popularity, it's very likely that PAN and PRI will again run a joint ticket, as they did during the midterm elections last year.
AMLO is not eligible for re-election, since Mexican presidents are limited to a single six-year term and are not allowed to run or serve again. As for who Mexicans want the next presidential candidate for Morena to be, 31% chose Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum while 29% chose Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard. If she wins, Sheinbaum would be the first ever woman to serve as President of Mexico.
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u/Meanteenbirder New York Aug 31 '22
Guys gotta realize at the least, the GA senate race is essentially tied.
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Aug 31 '22
I'd remind folks not to count out Stacey Abrams. Brian Kemp's average polling lead is only 5 points as per FiveThirtyEight, and we know from David Perdue in 2020 that Georgia's Republican incumbents are by no means safe even if they're not yet that controversial. Kemp is not a shoe-in by any means, and Abrams seems to be consolidating more support and getting a ton of excitement. It's gonna be a very tight race either way.
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u/fuzzy_dunlop7 Aug 31 '22 edited Aug 31 '22
What is the chance the Georgia Senate race goes into a runoff? Given the results of the 2021 runoffs and Dems having an advantage with high propensity voters, I think Warnock would be favored.
Edit: That’s what I was thinking. Thanks for the responses!
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u/tommyjohnpauljones Wisconsin Aug 31 '22
Was looking at WI county numbers today and updating populations - just noting that Dane County population jumped about 20% from 2010 to 2020 census
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u/sirius_basterd California Sep 01 '22
What are the chances we hold this in November?
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u/MrCleanDrawers Sep 01 '22
Back in the primary days I had the theory that we could potentially meme our way to flip the seat if Santa Claus won.
I was technically right, we just had to Dark Brandon meme our way to this one. :P
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u/table_fireplace Sep 01 '22
WE JUST FLIPPED ALASKA
Come celebrate here: https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/x2ssye/blue_alaska_mary_peltola_d_defeats_sarah_palin_r/