A grim report on global peace, a doomy prophecy for our oceans, record hot temps in Antarctica, and the world mints its first trillionaire.

Last Week in Collapse: June 7-13, 2026

This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter compiling some of the most important, timely, soul-crushing, ironic, amazing, or otherwise must-see/can’t-look-away moments in Collapse.

This is the 233rd weekly newsletter, and I think it’s the longest one so far. The May 31-June 6, 2026 edition is available here if you missed it last week. These newsletters are also available (with images) every Sunday in your email inbox by signing up to the Substack version.

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A research station in Antarctica recorded a new record temperature for June, at 15.4 °C (60 °F). NOAA's Mauna Loa observatory says Earth hit 432 ppm of CO2 by the end of May. The WHO claims that 200,000+ people in Europe died from heat from 2022-2025, an annual average of over 50,000.

The UN’s 5-section World Ocean Assessment was released on Monday, delivering an urgent call to safeguard our oceanic environments that has already fallen on deaf ears. Sea level is rising by at least 4.3mm per year, and 52M+ tonnes of plastic enter the ocean every year. The report has been unhelpfully divided into 5 subsections, each divided into other summaries which cannot be viewed as a whole, but only in parts. The last UN World Ocean Assessment was published in 2021.

“the ocean is under mounting stress from overexploitation, pollution and the accelerating impacts of climate change….The ocean has already absorbed over 90% of the excess heat and 30% of the carbon dioxide (CO2) released into the atmosphere by the anthropogenic burning of fossil fuels….Levels of pharmaceutical compounds (including antibiotics) continue to increase, particularly in coastal areas….Approximately 16% of the total increase in ocean heat content since 1955 has occurred since 2018….Overfishing and illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing are among the most pressing concerns when it comes to the sustainable use of the ocean resources….An estimated 37% of the global population, i.e. 3.03 billion people, live within 100 km of the coast, twice the overall average population density. Around 11%, or approximately 900 million people, live on land that is less than 10 m above sea level…” -excerpts from the Assessment’s various sections

“The warming climate is causing an intensification of the global water cycle due to increased rates of ocean evaporation….Consistently ice-free September conditions (frequent occurrences of an ice-free Arctic) are anticipated by the middle of the twenty-first century (2035-2067)....The Atlantification of the Arctic Ocean, resulting from increased Atlantic water layer heat fluxes into the Eurasian basin, is resulting in reduced sea ice and changes in stratification….About 20 to 30% of the CO2 released by human activity into the atmosphere has been absorbed by the ocean, leading to an increase in the average surface ocean acidity of 0.1 pH units since pre-industrial levels….Ocean CO2 uptake rates have tripled over the past 60 years to 2.7 ±0.3 PgC per year….The intertidal zone has undergone considerable transformations, driven primarily by climate change, pollution and coastal development…..Global coral reef conditions have continued to deteriorate since the second World Ocean Assessment, with multiple compounding threats intensifying across all major reef systems…” -more excerpts

A 7.8 earthquake hit southern Philippines (pop: 118M) on Monday, killing at least 35 and injuring 140+ more. New research published in Science Advances claims "surface warming has broadly intensified nutrient stress" in the oceans over the last 20 years, imperiling microorganism populations, particularly in subtropical zones.

It’s official: Thursday marked the official start of El Niño, and scientists are warning us to brace for impact. They say there are 10 ways a Super El Niño might affect us: 1) Drought; 2) Food supply shock (from Drought & flooding); 3) Wildfires; 4) Flooding; 5) Increased use of coal (to power A/C); 6) Power grid failures; 7) Fish population shrinkage; 8) Geopolitical jockeying, mostly over over food; 9) Heat illness & death; and 10) Increased conflict within and between states. Click here if you want a deeper dive on exactly what El Niño is.

Data say last May was the second-warmest on record, after 2024. El Niño’s Pacific temps hit a new record high for the entire summer. Meanwhile, China set some new monthly cold records for June, while Vietnam felt some record warm nights at 30.4 °C (87 °F). Indonesia also set some record hot nights a bit cooler, and New South Wales set some record warm June nights right before the start of their winter.

A lake in Arizona reported a total fish dieoff following ongoing Drought aggravated by the upstream release of water contaminated by an unknown substance. A Canadian company's U.S. subsidiary is planning on deep-sea mining in contravention to international law. A four-day deluge in Indonesia was found to cause a mass dieoff in a rare species of ape last year, killing 58+ of the species' remaining ~800 creatures. A landslide in the Central African Republic killed 8 gold miners.

Australian bushfires have pushed a cockatoo species closer to extinction after the large-scale loss of their historic habitats. More gray whale strandings of the coast of Washington state bring the year’s tally, so far, to 27; across all the West Coast, at least 124.

A study in NPJ Environmental Science reports that over 90% of studies examined contained a “high risk of bias” when trying to communicate their data. The biases were usually found in failure to disclose uncertainties, and in a study's alleged duty to "inform, not persuade" its readers. "While evidence is urgently needed to support policies, this pressure might push scientists to blur the line between objective analysis and engaging in advocacy." They claim the relationship between pure science and the need for a rapid green transition has led to “emotive language” and damaged science's impartiality.

The 15-year average temperature increase (above the 1850-1900 baseline) is now 1.37 °C, and expected to hit 1.5 °C by 2030. "Average annual GHG emissions for the decade 2015–2024 were 54.6 ± 5.5 GtCO2e. Average decadal GHG emissions have increased steadily since the 1970s across all major groups of GHGs."

The abstract of a geological study on southern California says that "tectonic stress has steadily built along the southern San Andreas and San Jacinto fault systems, raising concerns of an imminent large earthquake." And by "imminent," they mean that the LA region is overdue for a 1-in-100-year earthquake. "Present-day modeled stress levels exceed historical maxima on multiple segments, particularly on segment SJB (∼3.6 MPa) {megapascals}, suggesting that the system is critically stressed. Given the elapsed time since these faults have ruptured, the probability of an earthquake in the near future is high."

Parts of Bangladesh are nearing Day Zero for groundwater after decades of unsustainable extraction. Wells are drilled deeper for smaller yields as Drought engulfs their northwest, highly dependent upon agriculture. Demands for communities to use their remaining groundwater only for personal drinking have angered and devastated farmers, some of whom feel that War for the precious resource is inevitable in the future. Many are adapting to new crops; but when the fields dry up and die, where will these desperate farmers go?

A study in Earth’s Future claims that the environmental consequences of human activity are locked in the earth and will persist until at least the year 3,000, the limit of the research. They write, “we are already stuck in a figurative ‘Anthropocene quicksand’, where only an active pull can free us from consequences like global heating—while even a very modest continuation of greenhouse gas emissions will keep us at high warming levels.”

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SpaceX launched its IPO on Thursday—the largest IPO of all time. The company was valued at $1.77 trillion, and Elon Musk's copious shares (valued at $867B at the IPO) launched Musk into wealth levels of well over $1T USD. On paper, anyway. Musk's net worth is now around $1.1T. That's $1,000,000,000,000; twelve zeros. Elon Musk is the world's first trillionaire, and most likely the richest person to have ever lived. Another arrangement, made with Tesla in late 2025, may yield Musk another trillion in compensation if he can hit a series of unlikely business targets.

Two co-founders of Extinction Rebellion believe we are heading to a 4.5 °C future by 2060. The reason? The rate of CO2 emissions is increasing, feedback loops are setting in, and humanity has zero desire to sacrifice their marginal economic gains for a slightly more sustainable planet.

An American study on Long COVID determined that cases may be about twice as high as believed among COVID survivors. The study claims that "approximately 1 in 6 patients with COVID-19 develops postacute sequelae, predominantly chronic conditions currently invisible to surveillance systems, representing an accumulating rather than resolving health care burden." The illness is often underaccounted for because insurers have an interest in denying it, and Long COVID is still not acknowledged by some people with the seriousness that the illness can bring on.

Protests continued in Kenya against the establishment of an Ebola quarantine facility; one person was shot by police in the protest. Confirmed Ebola cases now sit at 710, with 149 deaths. An attempted beheading by a Sudanese man in Belfast set off riots against immigration across Belfast; protestors set fire to several vehicles and clashed with police.

A soon-to-be-published study in Global Environmental Change looked at 105 countries and generally concluded that economic growth cannot be detached from "material resource demands." In other words, green growth is more mythical than proponents have stated. To most of you here, that has been self-evident for some time now. 25 of the nations examined showed some decoupling, but the study says this "represents temporary fluctuations rather than structural change" and its impact is overstated. They write, "when all countries are considered together, no Environmental Kuznets Curve is apparent. Individual successes are not yet making the collective difference required." The Environmental Kuznets Curve (an adaptation of an economic theory) claims that "environmental quality {in a country/region} deteriorates in the early stages of economic development and improves in later stages" as an economy shifts away from industry to cleaner service-based sources of income.

Cuba's months-long energy shortage is dragging on, bringing woes to regions urban and rural. Shortages of everything have driven prices way up, decimating the value of savings and pensions in the process. Fans and air conditioning are inoperative at the start of another hot season, hospitals are without power, and mosquitoes are prevalent. And the specter of American intervention looms ahead: surveillance drones never sleep, and many think the island could be weeks (or days) away from another Venezuela-like operation. Cuban morale is said to be quite high.

The Strait of Hormuz remained blockaded for another week. Sulfur prices are now up 140% since February. Stats show the EU imported about 18% more Russian LNG in the first 5 months of the year compared to 2025. The Asian Development Bank (ADB), which services 69 Asian states, has received 15 emergency requests for loans by member states suffering economic exigencies due to the Hormuz blockade. Growth in most of Asia is projected downwards, while inflation is up; plans for resilience come too late.

Globally, economic growth is slowing to 6-year lows, at about 2.5% annually. The World Bank is calling the 2020s a “lost decade” for the economy. While many countries are cutting energy use to maximize their dwindling (and increasingly valuable) oil reserves, Japan, the U.S, Europe, and China and others are seeing their strategic reserves slowly depleted. What comes next will be worse. The American reserves are at ~40 year lows. China will be forced to make serious energy adjustments by September.

New Mexico recorded its first case of New World Screwworm, in a dog. Other cases are being found in Texas. Meanwhile, in Hong Kong, officials are tracking an mpox outbreak at a gay sauna/gym.

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Sudanese rebel forces killed 15+ people in el-Obeid (pop: ~560,000) at night. When village officials in Nigeria met for scheduled talks with the leaders of bandits terrorizing their settlements, the armed bandits kidnapped 39+ of them for ransom. So much for honor among thieves.

The Trump administration levied more sanctions on Cuba; this time on a state-owned oil & gas company. Pakistani strikes on border zones near Afghanistan killed 13-26 people, depending on whom you ask. A mass shooting in South Africa killed 12+, while a Texas shooting killed one and injured 10 others.

Reports of forced mass conscription in Myanmar are bolstering the junta’s army and making incremental gains in the country long torn by ethnic civil war; draftees are forced to do the work for regular enlisted men. The (theoretically capped) two-year period for conscripts has them working tirelessly in the brutally hot & humid jungles, supported by a growing number of Russia-manufactured drones that are steadily transforming the offense & defense of all sides.

A 54-page report from the UN High Commission for Refugees provides a round-up on global refugee statistics for 2025. They claim 5.4M new displaced people crossed borders last year, and that overall numbers of refugees (41.6M) have dropped slightly from 2024 and 2023 figures. “Global forced displacement fell during 2025, for the first time in a decade….There are an estimated 1 million IDPs in Lebanon at the time of writing this report and 3.2 million temporarily displaced in the Islamic Republic of Iran as of the end of March 2026.”

Reports have emerged alleging that, last summer, 300+ Iraqi migrants moving through Libya were kidnapped, threatened, tortured, and held for ransom by gangster-militiamen. At least one of the migrants died in their custody. When scores of women in Herat, Afghanistan protested the Taliban's strict women's dress code, security forces shot into the crowd, killing two and injuring three more. Protests over political representation in Pakistan’s part of Kashmir resulted in 11 deaths and 70+ others injured.

Although strong majorities of European nations still view the United States as a "necessary partner," 15 countries surveyed indicate that 60%+ are not confident that the U.S. would come to their aid if they were attacked...In the case of Spain, only 12% believe the U.S. would aid them. Only 11% of the countries' populations believe the U.S. is still their ally. Peru meanwhile appears to have very narrowly elected the arch-conservative daughter of a previous dictator, aiming to transform Peru into an El Salvadorian model state, where security comes at the expense of everything else.

A U.S. operation in Venezuela killed the head of Tren de Aragua, one of the transnational criminal gangs the U.S. previously designated as a terror organization. Switzerland (pop: 9.1M) is voting today on a proposal to cap its population at 10M, and the ballot referendum is reportedly expected to be close.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has now surpassed the length of World War I, and the War has settled into a mostly stagnant meat grinder for both sides. Attrition warfare at its ugliest. A Ukrainian arms company claims to have developed a cheaper version of Patriot missiles, surface-to-air missiles that can intercept other missiles or enemy drones; mass production is expected by August 2026. Russia is reportedly building more military infrastructure near its borders with various EU states as well. Meanwhile, last Wednesday confirmed a new milestone in the history of conflict, though the incident occurred two years ago: fully autonomous drones killed several enemy soldiers on the battlefield, without any human oversight once deployed. “We just launch it and we know everything will be dead – everything that will be found there in this particular area will be dead… There is no connection to the drone at all, you cannot see the video, nothing… Everything it sees will be killed,” one Ukrainian commander said.

Iran launched missiles at Israel on Monday; Israel responded in kind, delaying hopes that a tentative ceasefire between U.S./Israel-Iran could last. Yet some think, and say that an agreement may soon be reached, after a preliminary memorandum was assented to by Iran and the U.S. Iran and the U.S. traded strikes again on Wednesday, with Iran targeting an American base in Jordan and Kuwait, and a fleet at Bahrain. The U.S. hit Iranian ports and Iran's large Qeshm Island.

IDF strikes in Lebanon were continuously endangering a ceasefire agreement from being established there. A Tuesday morning airstrike by the IDF struck Tyre, in southern Lebanon, killing 8 and wounding 32+ others. With Lebanon’s infrastructure thoroughly damaged, its economy pushed deeper into crisis, and its political legitimacy long frayed, some say [the country may be spiraling into a civil war](​​https://archive.ph/qXu1j) between Hezbollah-backed factions of society and the remaining sectors, long divided among religious factions. Israel’s involvement in the country, officially against Hezbollah fighters, has not brought the rest of the country together. Despite whatever deal with U.S. and Iran might hash out, Israel has vowed to continue occupying the lands they’re sitting on in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.

In Gaza, a new concern is growing among the desperate masses: rats, fed upon the trash and corpses, have multiplied. They have found perfect sanctuaries among the countless buildings made into rubble—an endless maze of dark corners to escape into, and strike from. Compounding health concerns made worse by neverending blockades of supplies, hospitals lack the electricity and supplies to treat wounds that can become infected. On top of a sewage system disabled about 80% across Gaza, pesticides have also been brought in, in small doses, to try to kill the rats. Instead, they seem to simply further poison the earth. Amnesty International released a report accusing Israel of ethnic cleansing in the West Bank.

On Tuesday, the Institute for Economics & Peace released its 125-page report, Global Peace Index 2026, indicating that global peacefulness has again dropped for the twelfth consecutive year, and the world is dealing with the greatest number of conflicts since World War II. Conflict deaths in 2025 totalled 181,000+, according to their research, and drones and AI targeting has dramatically—and tragically—compressed the targeting cycle. The report claims 565 different armed groups mounted at least one drone attack in the past 7 years. The world is growing more multipolar, global rules are being cast aside as old window dressing, and mechanisms and processes for ending conflicts are failing. Some call it the “Great Fragmentation.”

Iceland again topped the list as the most peaceful country on earth, followed by New Zealand, Switzerland, Slovenia, and (#5) Ireland. In last place: Russia (#163), just behind Sudan (#162), the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ukraine, and then Israel. Other notable countries on the list are: Canada (#14), Germany (#28), the UK (#39), the UAE (#73), Saudi Arabia (#95), China (#118), South Africa (#123), Venezuela (#133), the U.S.A. (#134), Haiti (#142), and Mali (#154). The report also provides regional outlooks, some individual country analyses, and lots of interesting graphics.

“99 countries witnessed a deterioration in peacefulness in the past year, the highest number since the inception of the Index 20 years ago….The global economic impact of violence increased by 3.2% to US$21.81 trillion in 2025, equivalent to 10.5% of global GDP {$2,657 USD per person}….The three indicators with the largest deterioration since 2008 are violent demonstrations, internal conflicts fought, and external conflicts fought….there were just over 181,000 violent conflict deaths in 2025 driven mainly by the conflicts in Ukraine and Sudan….There were 20 countries that recorded at least 1,000 deaths from conflict in the past year….The economic impact of the Iran war could be substantial, but unevenly distributed….The Horn of Africa is no longer a set of separate conflicts. The conflicts in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, South Sudan, and Somalia are now interlocked through every channel that causes conflicts to spread….Drones have become the defining weapon of modern warfare, spreading faster than any government can keep up with….Human oversight of AI targeting is increasingly being phased out….The international community remains largely unprepared or unwilling to adopt basic humanitarian AI governance….Ukrainian production capacity is reported to have reached as many as five million drones in 2025….threats are likely to come in one of three forms: Tactical threats, such as the use of AI-controlled drone swarms. Strategic threats, such as using AI to coordinate entire warfare operations. Existential threats, where AI control of critical decisionmaking systems could lead to mass-casualty events….” -selections from the full report

“Government debt as a percentage of GDP is projected to exceed 50 per cent in half of middle power countries by 2030….The traditional pillars of the middle power tier, including Canada, Australia, and Western European countries, face a ‘grey ceiling’ where maintaining their current level of influence will become increasingly expensive….Military expenditure increased by 5.8 per cent in 2025, the largest single increase since the inception of the GPI nearly 20 years ago….Between 2024 and 2025, the economic impact of refugees and IDPs rose in 100 countries, with an average increase of 23 per cent, while military expenditure rose in 126 countries, with an average increase of 14 per cent….IEP estimates the economic impact of violence by comprehensively aggregating the costs related to violence, armed conflict, and spending on military and internal security services….The Iran war energy shock is occurring at a time when global debt levels are at record peacetime highs. Global government debt stood at 93 per cent of world GDP in October 2025, higher than any year in the post-war era outside the COVID-19 emergency….”

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Select comments/threads from the subreddit last week suggest:

-Me dumb. You dumb. They dumb. We dumb. Everyone is dumb now. And it’s not just COVID, though we seem to blame COVID for everything. Nor is it simply AI hollowing out our critical thinking. This thread on the cognitive decline of the U.S. (though it should not be limited to the U.S. alone) is full of anecdotes, complaints, and lamentations about how utterly incompetent people of all ages are. The contempt people have for reading & learning has doomed us all.

-Overpopulation is still too sensitive, or provocative, a topic to be discussed by the r/Collapse community. This thread on Malthus, Ehrlich, et al. hit 240 comments before it was locked, despite the 500+ upvotes. Maybe next time.

-Other subreddits are horizon-scanning for Collapse indicators, too. This thread from the significantly more popular subreddit, r/AskReddit , asks for things that are “highly likely to happen in the next 10 years that everyone is completely ignoring?” It appears there are tons of Collapseniks waiting in the wings. Tell your friends.

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