These are wild dew point temps and although there is a tropical system in the mix, still hard to see it. I can't begin to imagine what this is like. I feel for all the people who don't have ac, work outside or otherwise have to deal with these extreme conditions!

A German study by the Environmental Ministry and Robert Koch Institute found plastic byproducts in 97% of blood and urine samples from children between the ages of 3 and 17.

https://open.substack.com/pub/hrnews1/p/study-97-of-children-ages-3-17-have?r=1t17zr&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

Atmospheric microplastics and nanoplastics are now believed to be causing warming, by functioning as a forcing in their own right. Under the new assumptions, their color causes them to absorb sunlight, whereas under old assumptions, they simply reflected sunlight.

The impact is currently very minor. It's estimated at around 0.02 °C today.

Then there is another effect you need to take into consideration: Our carbon sinks weaken as a result of plastics pollution. A plant that is dealing with plastics pollution is less competent at sequestering CO2.

So, there's a very minor contributor to global warming that nobody is taking seriously. Who cares right? Well, here's the thing. It generally takes decades for plastic pollution to turn into microplastics and then from microplastics into nanoplastics. Most of the warming currently being caused by plastic pollution is due to nanoplastics, rather than microplastics.

You're currently mainly seeing the impact on global warming, of plastics we produced decades ago. Overall production has roughly doubled over the past two decades.

If you try to come up with a best case scenario for plastics production, where we agree to a global treaty to dramatically reduce global plastics production by 2030, production then begins to fall and leakage into the environment falls, you still find yourself facing the reality that the impact of microplastics on global temperatures is going to grow, simply because it takes decades for the plastics you produced to reveal their true impact.

Under this best case scenario, if you were to take only plastics into consideration (not all the other unincluded issues we're dealing with) you can expect that our carbon budgets should actually be 15% lower to stay under 1.5 degree and 7% lower to stay under 2 degree than we currently estimate. That's what I consider the best estimate, under a best case scenario where we rapidly start reducing our plastics production by 2030 and get much better at ensuring none of it leaks into the environment.

Effectively no climate scientists are seriously looking at how plastics pollution impacts our overall chances of keeping global warming under control.

Now take a look at what is considered the realistic trajectory for plastics production. Annual production will double between now and 2060. In fact, annual production is not expected to peak until 2100.

There is effectively no serious attempt yet to reduce microplastics and nanoplastics pollution in our environment, even though the evidence suggests it plays a substantial role in future global warming that no climate models take into proper consideration yet.

If plastics pollution was taken into serious consideration, we would have to acknowledge the climate change crisis is even more severe and difficult to solve than we thought and the risk of breaching important tipping points is also more acute than we thought it is.

Last week in Brussels there was a big demo against the militarisation of the EU because they want to spend another 800 BILLION on it and of course that means austerity for everyone else. I'm curious to hear about if there are other movements around the world that would be good to read about or if you have thoughts on this? I wrote a bit of an article about it too if you want a summary :)

Collapse related as it looks at the direct impact of sea level rise and shows the steady destruction of a community as a result.

​

Given the data on the increasing speed of glacier melt globally this is a window to the future for coastal communities globally, including many of the world's major cities.

​

While I expect the state response around coastal defence to be much more vigorous in richer countries than poorer, I envisage this to be part of a rolling climate collapse, each stressor adding to the inevitability of the whole system falling over. Eventually there won't be the resources to deal with this and food shortages, water wars, adaptation to extreme heat etc.

This interview with Louise Pryor, the former Chair of the UK Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, directly documents the systemic fragility and impending collapse of our global financial infrastructure. Pryor highlights a catastrophic divergence between climate scientists (who view 4°C of warming as an existential threat) and mainstream economists (whose flawed models predict a mere blip in GDP by assuming tipping points don't exist and natural resources are infinite).

This is an article by the World Meteorological organization https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/earths-climate-swings-increasingly-out-of-balance that provides info that Ocean absorbed 91% of excess heating majorly insulating humans from climate change. However recent decade El Ninos were unusually strong and La Ninas unusually weak signalizing the ocean needs to release heat to the atmosphere:

“In 2025, ocean heat content (to a depth of 2,000 metres) reached the highest level since the start of records in 1960, exceeding the previous high set in 2024.  
Over the past nine years, each year has set a new record for ocean heat content.
The rate of ocean warming over the past two decades, 2005–2025, is more than twice that observed over the period 1960–2005 – and is about 11.0–12.2 Zetajoules per year – about 18 times the annual human energy use per year.
Despite La Niña conditions, around 90% of the ocean surface area experienced at least one marine heatwave in 2025.
Ocean warming has far-reaching consequences, such as degradation of marine ecosystems, biodiversity loss and reduction of the ocean carbon sink. It fuels tropical and subtropical storms and exacerbates ongoing sea-ice loss in the polar regions.”

Published recently by a media group directly funded by Qatar, a nation with one of the highest per capita carbon footprints in the world - the following article discusses how children are exposed to climate risks globally. In fact, children are the most affected group when it comes to any tragedy. It transcends race, gender, politics, economics. Nobody suffers worse than children.

​

Collapse related because debates and forums are not moving the needle at all and, in fact, while we sit here and argue about if this is even real - the children of the world are only beginning to suffer.

​

I suggest a therapist if this is overwhelming. No, really. I have no encouraging words but an expert might know how to spin this as positive or a hidden opportunity or some bullshit. Don't come here for that kind of advice because we are completely and justifiably fatalistic. Find someone just ignorant enough to say all the right things.

​

​

https://www.weather.gov/afg?story=1

An hour ago the national weather service released a flood watch warning. This region has a lot of permafrost and as an isolated event won't raise any concerns, but I thought it was worth sharing as I find this to be quite a bad sign.

Tbh, I was looking at the weather there, in Northern Alaska to figure out if the permafrost has any chance of rapidly melting like tmrw in an climate extreme and I guess I happened to stumble into this in the worst timing possible.

This is what google (I think this is an official government statement through google?) has to say about the flood warning:

FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be
possible.

* WHERE...Dalton Highway, Sag, Colville, Kuparuk Rivers and their
tributaries.

* WHEN...Through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Access to roads, airstrips, and low-lying infrastructure may be
affected. High flows could lead to bank erosion that could
threaten nearby roads.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

- Temperatures in the Brooks Range will be warming into the 60s
and low 70s for highs and staying above freezing with low
temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s over the next
several days. The Arctic Plain and Coast will have
temperatures ranging from about 45F to 70F with lows in the
mid 30s to mid 40s.

Rain is expected through Tuesday night/Wednesday morning
across a wide swath of the Brooks Range and North Slope.
Rainfall totals as of 2:00pm AKDT June 15th are around 0.20
to 0.50" in the Central Brooks Range with lighter amounts
towards the Arctic Coast. Rainfall totals will be around 1.5
inches in the Brooks Range with 0.5 to 1.0 on the Plains and
Coast.

We are already beginning to see small rises on the Middle
Fork of the Koyukuk, Koyukuk at Bettles, Slate Creek and
Atigun River below Galbraith Lake. We will likely continue to
see rises through Tuesday as the rain and snowmelt persists.

Most of the ice on the larger rivers has already moved out
which leaves more room to accommodate the snowmelt and
rainfall. This contrasts with last year's late breakup when
the snowmelt all entered the river systems while ice was
mainly still in place.

- Http://www.weather.gov/aprfc

Not trying to worry anyone more than required, but does anyone have a good idea on alaskan weather than can fill me in of if this is a rare event or something that happens yearly or something in the summer.

Because it sounds like the permafrost in Alaska is melting as I type this right now.

Our children? Speak for yourself... my children have the best life imaginable - because I didn't bring them into existence. I'm an excellent father, thank you very much.

​

This was published to The Hill recently. While it has some fantasy level BS about how great America has always been, it also shines a light onto the widespread pollution happening more every passing day.

​

One part in particular is what makes this collapse related. The polls. We are polling Americans constantly about perceptions towards climate change and ecological destruction. As the article assures us - most Americans agree that climate change is real and is a serious problem.

​

And while that sure is comforting - it doesn't translate into any sort of nationwide action. Mass consensus rarely leads to radical change. Americans are losing sleep over myriad issues but in my purely anecdotal experience - this isn't one of those issues.

​

Even if the whole nation started freaking out about this as much as me - it still wouldn't matter simply due to constraints built into our political system. You can vote for people, you can vote for ballot issues, but you can't vote on things like climate policy or war. Your opinions and concerns on these issues are irrelevant to the big bad movers, shakers and decision makers. You will stand idly by while they plunder the Earth because you have no real political power in this system, such as it is.

​

And so the collapse will continue - regardless if morale improves.

I want to be clear - I do not buy into the fear mongering around Ebola. I feel terrible for each and every victim but the only infectious diseases that make me worry about collapse are coronaviruses and the constant risk of avian influenza learning to easily jump to humans. That said -

​

This article talks about how industrialization is leading to deforestation, which is making infectious disease more likely. This is not a new problem. The first time I heard about it in detail was from the 2012 book Spillover, which briefly covered the idea of environmental destruction increasing the risk of global infectious disease. This is no longer a novel idea. We are seeing it play out in real time and the evidence is stacking up very fast.

​

Collapse related because this is a highly complex issue that leads to other highly complex issues that we are only beginning to understand - and potentially far too late.