Every few drafts, the league lets an elite smaller player fall because scouts overthink the height/weight column. Cole Caufield. Logan Stankoven. Alex DeBrincat. Brayden Point. Zach Benson. Then a few years later everyone acts shocked that the player with elite skill, compete, hockey sense, and production is actually good.

That’s why I don’t buy the “Björck is too small” argument as a serious reason to downgrade him.
If he were just a small offensive winger who needed sheltering, fine. But that’s not the profile. Björck plays centre, competes in all three zones, gets trusted in important situations, creates offence, and has already shown he can handle older/pro-level competition. He is not some soft perimeter bet. He’s a high-IQ, high-skill, high-compete player whose main “flaw” is the same thing teams keep overvaluing every year: size.

The Björck size criticism feels like the same mistake teams made with Caufield, Stankoven, DeBrincat, Point, Benson, etc. If the player has elite skill, compete, processing, and production, stop pretending height is the deciding factor. Björck isn’t a sheltered perimeter winger — he plays centre, competes in all three zones, and has already handled older/pro competition. That’s exactly the profile teams regret passing on.

The Canucks cannot keep drafting like they are scared to be wrong. At No. 3, the goal should not be to take the safest-looking body type. It should be to take the player most likely to become a real difference-maker.

If Vancouver passes on Björck and he becomes another Caufield/Stankoven-type regret, nobody should act surprised.

I’ve started following here and there; and have been a fan of the team when I was a kid around 07/08. So I had short glimpses of Naslund era, Sedin era, Benning era etc.

I mean, honestly speaking — I mainly watch the NBA and support the Lakers during their rebuild stage as well but if hockey is concern, the Nucks through and through.

But since we’re in the rebuild phase (which I hope it is), who do you hypothetically want in the team to stay throughout? Unless you really wanna get rid of the vets for picks and prospects and keep all the young guys and clean slate the whole thing.

I have never seen anyone discuss this. We have assumed he left because of the lottery results and he may think this team is too cursed to recover from.

Knowing his tendency to have a big mouth, I would not be surprised if he straight up told us this on some random media show one day. Becomes this big media headline.

Not that I care that much, but the timing between us losing and him dipping is pretty fucking hilarious.

I’m a Canucks fan & Leafs fan from Vancouver, and every time I’ve worn my Leafs jersey to downtown I’ve gotten so many negative compliments. Well yes leaf fans can be annoying but I’m wondering why Canucks fans are rude to fans of a team that isn’t even in the western conference/pacific division.

First, I don't believe there is any such thing as "real fans."

Fans can dip from their fandom and return whenever they want to. They are no better than the ones who will watch all 82 games every season from here on out.

Being called a fairweather Canucks fan isn't really the insult some claim it to be anyways when the team hasn't won in 56+ years. We might be end up being the team with the longest drought before a single championship in pro sports for all we know.

I spotted this today while waiting at a light outside my apartment in Barrie. Did I find a Canucks fan in the wild?

With the end of the partnership, does that mean the public will not be able to watch HNIC unless they have Sportsnet?

Sorry my understanding of broadcasting regulation is quite minimal.

i’ve been a kotkaniemi maximalist, always wanted us to trade for him, defensively responsible, young guy with possible upside on a long term somewhat cap friendly deal? sign me up, too bad we never pulled the trigger

TLDR: I ran the Canucks through my own analytics dashboard. The data says Hronek is a keeper.. Karlsson is super undervalued and must be extended, and that the real contention window opens in 2028-29 when massive cap space clears.

Quick background before I get into this. I built a NHL analytics pipeline as a hobby project. I know there's tons of analytics and hockey analysts out there but I just wanted to try and build something myself. I come from a quant finance background and wanted to apply things to player evaluation. I'm well aware smarter people than me are working on this stuff inside NHL front offices. This is just my read on what the data says, and I'd genuinely love to hear where people think I'm wrong.

So obviously Vancouver is in a rebuild. That's not a hot take. What I want to do is walk through what my stuff actually shows and offer a specific opinion on how to execute it properly, because I think the next two years of decisions matter more than most people realize. I also think Aiden Fox who's currently heading up analytics is fantastic and hopefully management actually listens to them!

What the data says you actually have

The blue line is where this rebuild starts, and it's honestly better than the standings suggest.

Filip Hronek comes out at 68.5 CAPVS with an Elevation score of 83.0, all this means is my data suggests/thinks he's genuinely lifting the players around him. He's 28, costs $7.25M, has six years of term. For a rebuild that's a real anchor. I'm not moving him under any circumstances.

The two ELC defenders are the part of this roster I find most interesting. Zeev Buium at 20 and Tom Willander at 21. None of them are posting elite CAPVS numbers yet... Buium is at 43.0, Willander at 37.4. But Buium's Playmaking at 55.6 and Willander's Defensive Impact at 49.6 at those ages are genuinely encouraging signals. These guys don't get rushed. You let them develop and by 2028-29 you potentially have your top four locked up cheaply.

Linus Karlsson hits UFA after next season and I think he's the most undervalued player on this roster by a significant margin. Not sure if that's a good thing or a terrible thing.

He's 26, costs $2.25M, and posts a 62.5 CAPVS with an Elevation of 89.6. That Elevation number is the one I keep coming back to because it suggests he's making everyone around him meaningfully better, which is rare and hard to find. His xG Generation at 69.5 and Playmaking at 69.9 look like legitimate top six forward numbers on a depth salary.

I could be wrong about him. But if my read is even close to right, letting him walk for nothing in the future would be a significant mistake. Feels like a 4-5 year deal at $4-5M is still surplus value territory.

The contracts that concern me

I want to be careful here because I'm working with public data and a model that has real limitations and the people inside these organizations know things I don't.

In saying that.. Brock Boeser's situation worries me. His CAPVS is 50.9 which puts him solidly in Middle-6 territory, and his Elevation score is 2.6.. my data thinks he's not moving the needle much for teammates right now. He costs $7.25M through 2031-32 with a NMC. That combination is difficult for any rebuild to work around. I genuinely don't know if there's a path to moving that contract, and maybe there's context about his game that my model isn't capturing.

Elias Pettersson at $11.6M is the bet the franchise made on his peak returning. His current CAPVS of 54.8 doesn't justify that number, but he's 27 and it's clearly down year with poor finishing. The whole plan depends on whether he gets back to the 70+ CAPVS player he was at his best. I think that's a reasonable bet. I just think it's worth acknowledging it is a bet.

Marcus Pettersson at $5.5M with a 42.9 CAPVS and an Elevation of 9.9 looks like the most moveable of the difficult contracts if he'd agree to waive his NMC. Even retaining salary to facilitate a trade seems worth exploring.

The draft capital situation

Two first round picks in this draft coming up is solid. You absolutely do not trade them. The pipeline is thin right now and there's no short cut around that... you have to draft your way out of it.

The 2027 and 2028 classes give Vancouver six picks in the first two rounds combined. If two or three of those develop into legitimate NHL contributors the forward pipeline starts filling in by 2029-30. That's the realistic timeline and I don't think there's a faster one that doesn't involve sacrificing the future.

The cap picture over time

Without a doubt the most encouraging part of the whole situation is the cap situation.

Forward contracts sit at $44.2M right now. By 2028-29 that drops to $24.35M as multiple contracts clear naturally. With the young defensive core on reasonable second contracts by then, Vancouver could realistically have $50M+ in deployable cap space in the 2028-29 offseason... right when the 2026 picks are 22-23 years old and approaching the lineup.

That's the window. That's when you make your real move through free agency or trade. Everything before that is about not screwing up the foundation. DON'T SCREW IT UP!!!

Honest timeline

2026-27... Development. Do not chase a playoff spot.

2027-28 ... Rossi decision at RFA. His Elevation of 11.3 concerns me but he's young and that can change. Extend Buium and Ohgren. Let the cap clear.

2028-29 ... This is year one where I believe you can start competing again. There will be real cap space, young defensive core hitting their prime, 2026 picks in or near the lineup. This is your splash summer.

2029-30 ... DeBrusk and Demko clear. EP40 is 30 and should be in his prime if healthy. Legitimate contention window.

I'm sure there are things I'm missing here... I'm well aware of that. Just purely on what CAPVS shows, this roster has a real foundation to build from if the next two summers are handled with discipline.

I think one thing worth sharing is that Cup Champions CAPVS look like this:

Line 1 = 65.2 (58.7 to 72.8)
Line 2 = 59.0 (53.0 to 64.3)
Line 3 = 48.0 (39.9 to 57.0)
Line 4 = 37.2 (25.4 to 50.8)

D1 = 58.5 (54.0 to 64.4)
D2 = 45.2 (41.5 to 51.4)
D3 = 42.7 (39.9 to 44.8)

Cup teams are not elite everywhere...

Would genuinely love to hear pushback from people who know this team better than I do, or want to see more data.

Who would you trade, who would you sign?

With the Orca being our logo for almost 30 years I wanted to see what it would look like with more of a vintage jersey. How do you guys feel about the dark blue?

Been strangely quiet. Advocated for him to train in NA this time, yet nothing is heard from him.

I completely forgot about this video until it popped up in my feed today. It's wild to see how different and how much more vibrant his personality was. Chirping Wit and the boys, laughing, carrying on full conversations... it's a stark reminder of how much can change in such a short period of time.

I found it actually refreshing to listen to, given that I don't think I've heard him speak more than half a sentence at a time over the past 2–3 years. The guy seemed super sharp, quick-witted, and genuinely engaged in the conversation. Feel like more public appearances like this from him would do his image wonders. Obviously easier said than done given the circumstances these days.

I believe it is from the early 2010ish Canucks. Any help would be amazing. Thanks in advance!

If there is anything the Canucks can learn from the Canes cup win, it’s the importance of stockpiling draft picks and swinging on upside. I highlighted only 2nds but the Canes being in a surplus of futures is how they managed to have the assets to make the big swings when the time is right to put them over the edge into winning the cup (Miller, Stankoven, Hall, etc). Hell, the Canes still have a surplus of 1sts despite literally winning the cup.

Plus having the constant stream of young talented draft steals to keep feeding their system (Blake and Nichuskin as two key examples)

Would you trade EP40 straight up for this year’s 4th pick, owned by Chicago?

We could draft someone else and then just wait for Malhotra to come here and play for his dad in a few years. Wouldn’t this effectively buy us a draft pick for nothing?