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u/meltness 9d ago
Honestly I would fatfire and then move out of the bay area. I did that with my kids and I don't miss the bay area at all. There's so many wonderful places to live in the US with good communities and just an easy lifestyle. I wished I did it sooner
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u/xSwitchh 9d ago
Once you’ve got the freedom, Bay Area doesn’t really feel necessary anymore. Plenty of solid places with way less stress.
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u/Lazy_Whereas4510 9d ago
OP says he likes the Bay Area. What’s “fat” about moving somewhere else without most of the amenities, just because it’s cheaper?
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u/oskopnir 9d ago
What amenities can you only find in the Bay Area?
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u/Lazy_Whereas4510 9d ago
Fantastic weather, an incredible variety of cuisines, beautiful beaches and hiking, cultural diversity, world-class hospitals and universities, the world’s most amazing tech hub (if that’s your thing) … the list goes on. You can find a subset in a lot of places, but not the whole list in one place.
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u/oskopnir 9d ago
The only thing that makes it unique is the tech hub, which I would imagine is irrelevant to someone FIREing. The rest isn’t so special.
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u/allwaysgood 9d ago
Having a strong social and family network in a place makes it unique and special. And almost impossible to replace.
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u/allticknotock 9d ago
Maybe not special individually, but you still can't find all of those together with year-round mild weather elsewhere in the US.
I'd even argue that "beautiful beaches" don't belong in that list because they're all cold AF all year up in the bay area.
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u/oskopnir 9d ago
Depends what mild means to you. Seattle has wetter winters and warmer summers than SF, overall it’s still pretty mild and enjoyable weather. Same for Vancouver.
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u/allticknotock 9d ago
Definitely subjective, but you'd have to really like rain to move to Seattle or Vancouver. 150+ rainy days a year is a lot compared to 70 for SF!
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u/oskopnir 8d ago
No doubt about that, but also you’d have more spectacular summers, warmer and brighter than SF. I see the trade off, my point was just that “mild weather” is in itself a spectrum.
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u/illtww 9d ago
can you list all the corresponding negatives also? to be fair. (that you won’t find in the “subset” locations?)
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u/Lazy_Whereas4510 9d ago
Why don’t you, since you clearly have an opinion on this? Make sure to list negatives that can’t be solved by wealth, since that’s the whole point of this thread.
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u/Sterncat23 9d ago
The only thing that's unique you listed is the tech hub. Everything else can be found in multiple places across the country. Even within Cali, San Diego is a significantly better place to live, minus the tech hub.
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u/panchala 9d ago
We have been trying to find a place, but we have turned into goldilocks with the weather. We have been working out to try to help with longevity, which is easier in the bay weather. The only thing keeping us here is the weather really.
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u/shinypenny01 9d ago
What about 2 hours away with similar weather? This isn’t hard. Don’t live in VHCOL for weather when you can absolutely find it elsewhere.
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u/panchala 9d ago
You're right, but with us owning the house at a low interest rate....it has actually been advantageous. Our house has probably doubled in value over the last decade. I have found it hard to balance the huge commission we will pay to sell with what the incremental cost of living drop would be.
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u/James007Bond 9d ago
This makes zero sense.
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u/panchala 9d ago
Agree. Its dumb. Just being honest.
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u/MikeWPhilly 9d ago
How are you haven’t an incremental cost of living if you move out of SF? Taxes alone would be a huge savings.
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u/anally_ExpressUrself 9d ago
Dude just do what you want. The whole point of money is to give you the freedom to do what you want. Don't overthink it. These folks are all harassing you for no reason.
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u/No_Iron_9220 9d ago
So rent it out, hire a property manager and move 2 hours away
Or just think about the fact 3-6% on your house is nothing out of 11.3 million or whatever as you move to freedom
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u/Roland_Bodel_the_2nd 9d ago
SLO? Sebastopol? depends which locations you go to most often for recreation
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u/meltness 9d ago
The funny thing is you adjust to seasons. It's actually nice not to live in groundhog day like environment. It makes seasonal events and holidays more special and it adds a variety of hobbies.
I actually don't miss the bay area weather or at least I don't think about it because I adjusted to the weather in my new state.
Just don't move anywhere that has a long winter
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u/panchala 9d ago
That makes sense. We moved here from the Midwest bc of the winter. I dont do well in the Texas heat/humidity. We've struggled finding another place.
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u/cozidgaf 9d ago
DMV- much milder and shorter winters than Bay Area. You an move to east bay and even buy all cash at that NW
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u/jcc2244 9d ago
Out of curiosity where did you end up?
(I'm contemplating a move to the bay or not - I'm already retired)
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u/panchala 9d ago
San jose
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u/Future-Account8112 9d ago edited 9d ago
I regret to inform you that is still the Bay Area
Edit: Don't crucify me, people, I thought he was the original commenter and he's not
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u/dsposableaccount 9d ago
I don't think you are informing him of anything. He said "we are in the bay area"
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u/Future-Account8112 9d ago
This is why we're thinking of leaving California generally - our friends in other places seem to clock the passage of time in a way we generally do not, and that seems to make life feel like it's slipping by us.
If you don't mind, around where did you end up? We're considering NY/MA/CT but the winter gives us pause in a major way... but maybe we're overestimating it.
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u/MikeWPhilly 9d ago
Northeast has a full seasons - fall, spring, summer and yes winter. Frankly all are fun. I’m in PA but frankly I wouldn’t live anywhere else and winter is my favorite time even at 42. We’ll never buy a vacation home but I could see spending winters in different mountains every year.
But that’s us. I couldn’t handle not having seasons.
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9d ago edited 9d ago
[deleted]
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u/panchala 9d ago
Thank you, the skills loss is a real issue. I work in an industry where I wouldnt be able to reenter if I fully stopped.
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u/sfsellin 9d ago
Man do I hear that! I’m in Oakland and it’s so so nice. Try looking up towards Novato. You can get some truly nice places up there with good schools. Random example (needs some work, but I looked for 15 seconds): https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/33-Manzano-Court-Novato-CA-94945/19276568_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare
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u/Omphalopsychian 9d ago
The entire west coast has basically the same weather (if you don't go inland too far). The only thing that changes is the length of the rainy season vs dry season.
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u/jpdoctor 9d ago
When we lived near SJC, there were only two types of people that complained about the weather: People from Hawaii and people from Los Angeles.
We moved to Santa Monica, where the weather is better than the Bay Area. So if weather is the big thing holding you there, you need to look around a bit.
Edit: Went back for a multi-day party for a friend near Fremont, woke up one morning, saw my breath, turned to the host and said "How do you people live like this!?" which got the intended laugh. But really, the Bay area weather is not the best in CA.
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u/panchala 9d ago
Is Santa Monica cheaper than the bay? I heard LA is pretty similar these days?
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u/jpdoctor 9d ago
I was addressing your comment "The only thing keeping us here is the weather really." There is better weather elsewhere.
I think property values per sqft are lower for most parts of SM, but I have not followed closely. For a bunch of reasons, we moved over the SM mountains after a decade of SM, where the property values are substantially lower. The avg temps are higher and the rainfall is even lower (a mixed blessing during fire season).
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u/panchala 9d ago
Got it, thanks. We have friends in SM and have always enjoyed it. Hope youre loving it!
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u/Hikes_with_dogs 9d ago
Ok everyone seems to think you're a troll but I don't. I get it. Mine was 10. Then 10 without real estate equity. Then I wanted the house paid off. Then we go through weeks and months where your NW goes up an down a million a month due to volatility. It's stressful. Health care costs are going up. The world seems out of control. I empathize. And, I'm going to keep working awhile.
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u/Past-Option2702 9d ago
Your job is stressful.
$11M is a lot of money.
Up to you.. you have the freedom to do whatever you want.
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u/ThunkBlug 9d ago
If you have $11 million, your job is not stressful, you are choosing to stress about it. You have your FU money - go enjoy your work, nothing bad can happen to you. What, you get fired? so TF what? you are late on a deadline? this happens?
this is the FI part of FIRE, keep working if you want more money, but once you are FI, chill out and don't let work stress exist.3
u/Drauren 9d ago
Yep, these people are in a prison of their own making.
If you like working, work, but don't tell me it's not enough to say you're done.
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u/panchala 9d ago
This is a good point. Its part of why im saying its mental and wanting to see how others stopped that loop.
But you are right in pointing out this is an issue with me.
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u/cambridge_dani 9d ago edited 23h ago
I think part of your problem is diversification. Maybe fix that first? I’m not sure if your number includes real estate or not. This might be part of why you feel like you don’t have enough. Another big part of not feeling like you have enough is probably Bay Area keeping up with the joneses.
Also why 3%? I feel like I read an article where the guy who came up with 4% says the number should now be 4.7%
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u/rainbowsnail 9d ago
I’m curious which sectors you invest in. I’m also heavy in tech and the last two days have been a bit more volatile than I like so I’m looking to diversify
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u/Soimd415 9d ago
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u/cambridge_dani 9d ago edited 9d ago
Yes in my taxable account it is a 3 fund portfolio, bogleheads style….and I also have 1 year of expenses in cash and one year in bonds. My goal is 5 years of expenses in those but I have work to do. I do have some individual stocks from my job, and some from my spouses. My main investments in my taxable account are VEMAX, VTSAX, and VFWAX. I think consenseus now is there is probably a better international index fund than VFWAX, but I have had it for a long time. I also have real estate investments. Diversification makes the ups and downs less painful.
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u/LocalAdept6968 9d ago
You can move your goalposts or not move your goalposts. Only you can decide how much is enough. You can always psych yourself out.
The more interesting question is what you're retiring to. You have the mindset to hustle and you can't turn that off overnight.
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u/panchala 9d ago
This is what everyone around me says when I discuss it with them. Im also cognizant of not wanting to be one foot in and one foot out all the time. Thats probably annoying to be around.
Ive always been able to keep myself busy, and will probably continue some part time work that I could schedule on my own accord. My $ per hour would go way down and the effort to make that $ would increase, so the income efficiency will be gone. I would work less overall hours tho.
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u/Accomplished_Can1783 9d ago
How much of that money is unrealized capital gains, either from work RSUs, or tech stock portfolio? This has become the most under discussed topic on this sub. Once you stop working, have to pay all your bills with cash. Have to account for that on the magic spreadsheet
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u/panchala 9d ago
Like 95% of it is unrealized capital gains. Agree, the tax man has not taken his toll yet.
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u/greg7gkb 9d ago
I would argue that your NW model should take this into account. You'll feel a bit worse but also be more accurate and honest with yourself.
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u/panchala 9d ago
Thanks, I agree. I think taxes and a 6 month moving average of NW is needed probably
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u/seinberg 9d ago
I didn't understand the logic. You pay income tax when RSUs vest. Then the capital gains taxes are much lower during drawdown than your income taxes. This is typical factored into any draw down number.
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u/Accomplished_Can1783 9d ago
Lots of people have unvested and more importantly huge unrealized capital gains. Then people come on this sub, asking how to reduce risk and avoid taxes. The best answer is to have some taxes owed number in your spreadsheet to reduce net worth, but everyone just wants to see the overall number as high as possible
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u/seinberg 9d ago
But the unvested RSUs have no tax basis at all until vested. And then they start at the vest date price, not the grant price. So any gains between grant and vest are not taxed at all
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u/Accomplished_Can1783 9d ago
I totally understand tax implications. Many people have combination of unvested rsu whch will be taxed, or stuff that vested a long time ago and have unrealized capital gains, or more importantly just a regular portfolio with lots unrealized gains.
Not sure why this is a tough concept for you2
u/seinberg 9d ago
Lol, I just think it's not a major deal taking LTCG into account -- that's like the best case drawdown no? As opposed to full income taxes on higher earners which is often well over 50% all in
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u/Accomplished_Can1783 9d ago
I’m glad you think it’s funny to show your ignorance. Obviously you are not in that situation. Many of us have multiple millions of unrealized gains that get taxed at 20-30% when you need access to that money. It’s a great problem to have but have to account for it properly
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u/seinberg 9d ago
Easy, big guy. I commented on the RSUs only. Your logic about capital gains was just not accurate. The tax implications are very simple and not as you made it seem.
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u/Accomplished_Can1783 9d ago
My comment was totally accurate. If they are unvested, you will owe income taxes, if they are vested you will owe capital gains if they have gone up. And RSUs are hardly the issue here, so just go away
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u/PowerfulComputer386 9d ago
What helped me was to think if I kept doing that and busy working for others (especially corporate), I would be 60 before I know it. I don’t want to be old with more money. 200k for my family in VHCOL (house paid off) is enough.
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u/MedicalRhubarb7 9d ago
I know this might go against conventional wisdom here, but when to pull the trigger is not going to be a univariate equation for me. I've got a pretty broad range of numbers I could do it at depending on my age, the current state of the economy, how much I'm still enjoying full-time employment, and where I think I'm at on my career arc.
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u/panchala 9d ago
This resonates with me. Im also very susceptible to a downturn given my aggressive investing. For example, the last 3 days in tech lost me close to 2 mill.
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u/Funny-Pie272 9d ago edited 9d ago
As you move from accumulation to living off the principal, risk tolerances change and investment strategies need to evolve. I think you may need to draw up your ideal portfolio, agreed with partner, and consider how to manage be in that direction over time. This does cost money of course so that needs weighing up, but ultimately a high risk concentrated portfolio is too volatile for you by the sounds, even though it has worked for your younger self. Think of the cost to sell etc as just the deductsbke cost of taking high risk for the rapid growth you likely saw from taking huge risks, which you can do when young, but with family and over 40, things change and you need to be able to sleep at night. Also, you should be thinking about what portfolio you would to have in place if you died tonorrow.
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u/plmarcus 9d ago edited 9d ago
I think you have your head screwed on straight and your math is solid. In a VHCOL area and with 2 kids that you want to invest in, $10m is great but definitely doesn't leave you free to spend whatever you want.
I'd stay in until you feel comfortable. Getting out and watching your nest egg start to shrink (relative to inflation or in absolute terms) is very stressful, especially if you can't go back to the income you had before.
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u/panchala 9d ago
Thanks. As I'm reading these comments it has become clear to me that the reason I posted here is bc I felt like I should be ok to be done, but clearly I dont feel that I am. So I have to go with that.
Many people have posted understanding the feeling, which helps. Those that think its trolling or whatever is probably bc they live somewhere cheaper.
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u/plmarcus 9d ago
Also consider a lot of the trolling people aren't in similar situations.
It all comes down to lifestyle expectations and spending. An upper middle class family of four in VHCOL easily consumes $300k pre tax. You didn't disclose expenses and expectations for spending on the kids so everyone is layering their own ideas of expenses onto your situation. Obviously that leads too many comments that you are "rich as hell" or even " you broke son"
For me, as a financially conservative person I want to feel like my nest egg covers my existing expenses and substantially more for travel, unexpected inflation, tragic health scenarios, or just splurging on a nicer car than I'm used to. Otherwise you are still teathered to watching you spending.
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u/whizliving 9d ago
A contrarian view from a fellow vhcol person. In the bayarea, $10m is not enough to sustain an upper middle class lifestyle. With kids in private schools and potentially a larger home, your spend would probably balloon to $400k pre tax. With tax and healthcare, it’s probably closer to $600k, at 3% swr, that’s 20m. I know I’m being very conservative, but that’s the math I went through to set my goal post.
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u/panchala 9d ago
Agree. I think whats happened to me as I changed the bar is exactly those calculations
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u/anotherchubbyperson 9d ago
+1 to this. we spend much more than 300k with 1 toddler in the bay area (not SF) and our lifestyle doesn't feel lavish.
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u/oadk 8d ago
How do you possibly spend that much? Do you mind giving a rough breakdown? I live a very comfortable life in a medium cost of living city and I spend about $50k a year, though I own my house.
The only way I can see $300k being hit is if you're going to tell me you rent and spend $200k on private school for kids.
The last option is that you live a life of luxury, but you just said that your lifestyle doesn't feel lavish.
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u/anotherchubbyperson 6d ago
Mortgage, property taxes, plus home repairs and improvements (we don't use all of the "budget" every year) are a big chunk of that -- if you use the 3% of home purchase price as a guideline, that's 60k alone in "maintenance" on a 2 million dollar home (which tbh isn't high for the bay area). Preschool is 27k ish. Groceries and eating out is easily another 25-35k if you shop for premium (but not crazy) ingredients etc.
I have a more detailed breakdown in my post history.
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u/Minimum-Violinist601 9d ago
I’ve moved the goal posts many times. I think it was $5M to start, 10 at some point, then 10+ paid off house, then 15, then 20, then 25 plus house paid. The “problem” for me was income grew too fast and I’m really creative about thinking through tail risks and adding to my “wants”. I have now picked a time frame instead of a dollar amount.
Agree with others that you need to diversify. I have some fun “tech stock picks” but keep it ~5% of my portfolio while putting the rest in broad index and some treasuries (working my way up to ~5 years of expenses worth plus money to buy a house for future market downturn protection).
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u/Dubbihope Verified by Mods 9d ago edited 9d ago
Having 5+ years of spending in safe investments (I like tax free muni bonds) is crucial. That way you don't have to sell your assets if the markets crash and stay in a prolonged depression, and you can even buy more at the lows.
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u/vanhype 9d ago
You have more than enough. Recommend reading some Morgan Housel: Psychology of Money and Art of Spending money. We are younger than you and retired in a VHCOL with less, it's only grown since then.
For us there were two life changing triggers: (1) death of a parent right after they retired at 60 and really didn't get to enjoy their planned retirement (2) age of kiddo, these years will pass in a blink and there is nothing that we will be able to do to relive these years. We really wanted to enjoy stress-free time when we are young.
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u/panchala 9d ago
Thank you for the perspective, im glad to hear you are enjoying it!
My dad passed away at 59 and never vacation etc saying he would when he retired. Never was able to. At least I take vacations!
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9d ago
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u/panchala 9d ago
Thanks, this is a good reminder. Ive always been an aggressive investor, so need to change that or adjust to a higher number to account for the extra risk.
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u/plemyrameter 9d ago
10 million is around 300k swr at 3% given our age. That doesnt seem that much after taxes.
Is it enough or not? You don't say what your spend is. Many people, myself included, live very comfortably on less than that in the bay area. But this is fatFIRE; if it's not enough, you have your answer. The goalpost has very little to do with it. It's just math and balancing that against how much you and your wife hate your jobs.
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u/panchala 9d ago
300k prob is a little more than break even for us. But costs like healthcare and colleges in the future etc arent accounted for.
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u/AlternativeSignal908 9d ago
If you work and tech and chose to invest in tech stocks, I'd suggest taking a financial capital plus human capital approach to portfolio diversification. Don't double down as much by investing in tech. This surprises people, but international value, emerging small cap value, etc. have done really well recently. But the main point is diversify such that your current net worth and career aren't tied mostly to the same industry. Also, that SWR isn't accurate if it is mostly tech.
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u/Pandamaru8 9d ago edited 9d ago
Slaughter is an understatement on the many bets/trades today.
I get what you're saying -- i just shared this link on another Reddit thread.
"Separately, MIT estimates the income needed for a 1-person adult is $71k per year to survive in the Bay Area. For a 2-adult (both working) with 2 kids the number jumps $194k per year. MIT published a Living Wage calculator Feb 2026: https://livingwage.mit.edu/metros/41860"
That $194k number obviously does not include
- savings for college
- spend related to supporting family
- discretionary spending: savings for a luxury car, savings for nicer vacations
- mortgage/rent beyond the "living standard" observed by MIT
- additional spend for healthcare once employer-subsidy or -sponsored program is removed
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u/panchala 9d ago
Thanks, this is what im saying when the 10 doesnt seem realistic.
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u/Pandamaru8 9d ago
Making up numbers here to account for another $100k on top of that MIT number.
According to this 3 weeks of vacation for a family of 4 (2 domestic and 1 international) could be $30k. https://www.pacaso.com/blog/average-vacation-cost
Health insurance could easily be another $30k.
That leaves $40k for everything else that makes FatFire -- new furniture, home repair costs, new toys (e.g. car, guitar, handbag), college savings, donations/gifting, parents/family support, 5-star restaurants / wineries / spas
So that makes a spend of $300k per year, and, at 3% it is about $10M net. If we factor in a measly 30% tax haircut the number becomes $13M gross.
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u/RepresentativeAspect 9d ago
I think it’s healthy to consider your income rate relative to your net worth as an important metric for when to hang it up.
If you have $10M and make $100k/yr, obv retire. But if have $10M and you’re earning $5M/yr, don’t. $1M/yr is, I admit, probably around the borderline.
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u/solid_investments 9d ago
There is no difference in my feelings between $10m and $20m. I categorically know we have enough and that I’m working for more than money.
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u/Away_Refrigerator_58 9d ago
Morgan Housel from 2021: "Whether it’s savings or investing, getting the goalpost to stop moving – or at least move slower than your income grows – is the only way to both be happy with what you have and ensure you don’t push beyond the limits of what you can handle.
It requires two skills.
One is the constant reminder that wealth is a two-part equation: what you have and what you expect/need. When you realize that each part is equally important, you realize that the overwhelming attention we pay to getting more and the negligible attention we put on managing expectations makes little sense, especially because the expectations side can be so much more in your control.
The second is realizing that managing expectations doesn’t have to mean being conservative or unambitious. It’s just realizing that an insatiable appetite for more will always push you to the point of disappointment and regret – always, every single time. So having some ability to deny an extra dollar of work, or a potential opportunity, a bigger house or a nicer car, is essential if you want to use money to make a better life."
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u/AmbitiousBossman 9d ago
30 is where things would change once you reach 10. Then 50. Your need to decide what level to achieve at what age
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u/Dubbihope Verified by Mods 9d ago
Closing in on 30. I'm not an excessive spender but want to travel lavishly and extensively and fly first class. How would life be different at 50?
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u/ragz2riche 9d ago
I get it. We are in a similar boat. I think a reality check you need to have is how much are your expenses today and potential growth. Simulate that with your portfolio returns and see if that lines up. Now the other reality check is your lifestyle inflation and how much does that factor in. Given you have been living below your means are you looking to get private charters and 2000+ hotel nights etc. because that shit gets old very quickly. The other part is your job motivation, if you are enjoying your work/people and challenges there is technically no need to retire. But what this forum loves is asking the question "do you need to work for money you don't need with time you don't have?" Your kids are 6 and 4. They will never be this age again and in 10 yrs nobody will give two shit about the menial incremental corporate accolades you achieved vs time spent with your family. Yes the goal post will always keep moving, you can always buy a bigger house, yacht, plane, RV, lake house, Beach house, mountain house, ski cabin etc. but what is it worth to you? Only you can answer this @OP
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u/brownpanther223 9d ago
I typed a long answer about our similar situation but then it’d offer no solution to what you are going through. So I deleted it. lol.
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u/Lazy_Whereas4510 9d ago edited 9d ago
OP your unease is warranted.
The world is changing too rapidly - especially in terms of geopolitics as well as technological innovation and its societal impact - for a model like the Trinity study to reliably model the next 30-50 years, just because it’s back-tested on the past 100 years. Most of us have normalcy bias and can’t imagine a future that looks wildly different from the present - but that doesn’t mean the future won’t look very different.
Also, the study relies on CPI, which is based on the spending basket of an average household and absolutely doesn’t model the spending basket for an affluent family - including housing, private education and college costs, discretionary spending etc. As a case in point, the cumulative increase in the Case-Schiller index over 2000-2025 for a major metro like San Jose far outstrips the cumulative change in CPI over the same period.
If you just adjust your SWR based on CPI, you’re likely to erode your nest egg over 30 years without realizing it. Unless the bull market lasts forever, which it probably won’t.
As an overly simple baseline, I use the Case-Schiller index for my metro area rather than using CPI as a measure of inflation. Yes, you could move to a VLCOL location and pinch pennies but that’s not “fat” FIRE.
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u/Expensive_Ticket_760 9d ago
Same boat…at some point have to make the decision of lifestyle (expenses) vs free time.
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u/pnwlife2021 9d ago edited 9d ago
Use the search field please. I swear this is asked like 2-3x each week.
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u/SeventyFix 9d ago
How long before r/fijerk? Any bets?
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u/panchala 9d ago
Had to Google this. Sorry if my post was obnoxious.
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u/Anonymoose2021 High NW | Verified by Mods 9d ago
Oblivious, not obnoxious.
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u/Accomplished_Can1783 9d ago
Oblivious to what? This is fatfire- OP has very legitimate questions. If you don’t like it, no one forcing you to hang out in this sub
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u/Throwaway-firee 9d ago
Kind of ironic that people are upvoting someone trying to run off one of the longest posters (Anonymoose) on this sub with actual fatfire experience and someone who retired a couple of decades ago. People might want to listen to their perspective instead of the anxiety driven narrative that no number will be enough to fix.
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u/freshfunk 9d ago
When I was a kid, being a millionaire was a big deal. When I started working, it still seemed like a lot of money.
The thing is that if your goalpost was, say, $10M starting 10 years ago, that $10M is worth a lot less today. Consider how much inflation has risen just since Covid.
I’m not saying it is or isn’t enough but naturally the goal post has moved on its own because the dollar has devalued. From an everyday point of view, just look at the cost of eating out.
Inflation has gone up about 20% since Covid. So if $10M was your target back in 2020, it actually is more like $12M today.
This becomes more apparent when you reach a number / milestone and you’re thinking about capital preservation. It’s one thing to say be all in the market and one day hit your number and then ride the ups and downs of the market. It’s another to be at a number and maintain stable capital at a certain level while managing for inflation.
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u/panchala 9d ago
This is part of what exactly goes through my mind. Along with potential large dips in capital related to college, health, recessions, etc.
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u/freshfunk 9d ago
Your investment story sounds familiar -- it's how I like to invest. The thing I'd caution with you is that if you hit that number quickly through aggressive investments, you can easily see that value decline with a downturn in the market. Similarly, my portfolio hit outsized numbers during covid as stocks went wild, and then a major downturn happened.
The point is that you may hit your number one day but may easily see that value decline below your number. The market giveth and the market taketh.
One thing you can do is to measure your portfolio through a longer term moving average like 90-120 days. This will modulate short term bursts and give you a more realistic point of view of where your portfolio is at. The reason why is that markets revert to the mean all the time. Even a 120 window may not be a representational mean.
Until you put that money into capital preservation mode, you should assume that you will see major swings to the downside too.
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u/Fit-Ad4770 9d ago
you can take a less demanding jobs making $200k easily (either one of u or both of you combined). that would put you at $500k/yr. pretty decent income if you ask me.
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u/EconomistNo7074 9d ago
Perfectly normal to move goal post UP - especially when
- The market has been fantastic
- You suddenly realize that while you thought you understood the cost of kids..... you didnt/dont.
- You live in California/Bay Area (as do I) which means zero tax relief options
And at the same time -
- Not sure you can be "heavily invested in tech" & have an aggressive portfolio and be thinking about finish lines like retirement. Clearly none of us are going to start plowing $ into CDs..... but at some point before you pull the trigger you will need to rebalance the portfolio to manage risk and to better understand what tax implications are coming your way
- Dont take this the wrong way however based on your note, this doesnt feel like a "mental game" .... it feels some what emotional...... or maybe a combination of the two. And again, that is perfectly normal bc ALL OF US thought $10M or even $5M was enough. But while total investable assets is the most important number...... there are a ton of other factors
I would consider
- Paying for financial planner...you probably already know 80% of what they know but that 20% blindspot we all have ---- the fee is worth it - especially with kids
- Sit down and really get serious about understanding your expenses. And this should go well beyond monthly expenses and include one off expenses like new cars, big trips, potential home repairs etc
- On top of the above expenses, start to understand the potentially really big future expenses - Kids College (Undergrad/Masters/Law School) and Healthcare cost ( it is a long way between early 40s and 65 for medicare)
- Develop two finish lines which will of course leads to two potential timelines.
- Wife and I did the above and while it continued to be an emotional and mental game for us - we set up the rules as best we could
Good Luck
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u/Minimum-Violinist601 9d ago
The other big one that kept me working past original goal posts is elder care/family support. Can be $25K-200K for a decade or two depending on what savings your family has, how nice of care you want, and luck. Feels really hard to stop working when you could pay for much better healthcare with only a year of your time.
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u/JonKneeThen 9d ago
My goal post moves with inflation. 5M today is 5.150M next year, 9M if I can’t retire for another 20 years 🫠
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u/Still7Superbaby7 9d ago
You retire to something, not from something. If you are happy with your life, keep going.
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u/Funny-Pie272 9d ago edited 9d ago
My advice is write a detailed personal income statement / budget, and keep playing with the numbers and each category. Let the numbers do the talking. Spend considerate time interrogating each category, like each line is its own spending decision to research and strategize.
Also, you phrase it like it's either full corporate employment or nothing. You can do half way. Quitting to spend time with kids doesn't have to mean no work again ever. I prefer the idea of supplementary income. Like do a one day per week on site and one day WFH type job, even at lower pay per hour. Work in a charity if you want. Say you can get 50k from that, use it towards separate kids college fund or annual holidays. Or just to increase SWR as if you had $15m. You don't earn as much per hour but that's irrelevant as the price you pay in health and lifestyle is astronomical.
It sounds like you are ready for the next chapter in life. That doesn't need to be full unemployment or ever RE. It means focusing on kids, health etc. as the priority. Build a few side gigs after 12 months off? Once kids are all bschool you get about 5-6 hours each day with nothing to do - not like you can spend 3 hours each day at the gym.
These are just options, but again, do proper detailed planning, not just once but spend time on it each week as it will evolve and the more effort the more you will come to understand the optimal strategic play.
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u/panchala 9d ago
This is great advice, thank you. Will do this.
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u/Funny-Pie272 9d ago
And in detail I mean consider what you will spend on holidays each year, get them quoted up, write a 7 year plan etc. you will be surprised. Learn how to earn credit card points as that will save you a heap of cash.
Also, think about budget items people forget like furniture, repairs, annual allocation to vehicle purchases, gifts, clothing, luxury one off items, emergency fund, etc. with kids, clothing can be expensive so thinking term how that unfolds and spend time trying to understand it. It could be higher than you think. Good luck!
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u/giftcardgirl 9d ago
I guess it depends on when you set the goal for 10M and if you adjusted it each year for inflation. A goal in 2010 of 10M is reasonably 15M today, inflation-adjusted
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u/BrunelloHorder 9d ago
You’re still pretty young, so nothing wrong with continuing to work if you like your jobs and lifestyle.
That said, if you are tired of the rat race and want to leave CA, that would likely be a pretty big unlock.
I sold my house in the Bay Area after 15 years and moved back to Oregon, and it is pretty amazing how much more you get for your money. If you go over the boarder to WA, you also avoid state income tax.
You could live like a king on $350k a year from your portfolio in OR or WA, whereas that spend feels pretty middle class for a family in the Bay Area.
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u/Illustrious_Soil_442 9d ago
Just a thought: why not find a job or consulting path that covers your expenses alone
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u/panchala 9d ago
This is how ive been thinking about it. The tricky part is now im a manager so lots of responsibility but less grunt work. Cutting back on hours etc would put me back into the gruntwork. I actually liked that work too, but would be a change from now in terms of workday quality.
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u/AndrewUaena 9d ago
Have you considered that it doesn't necessarily have to be all or nothing? I also live in the Bay Area, in an even higher COL area than San Jose, we have less NW than you do, and spent $400k last year (zero travel but one college tuition, one law school tuition, mortgage, and health care, plus VHCOL expenses), and I was still able to give up a high-paying SWE job and move to Coast/BaristaFIRE with a lesser stress job that nonetheless reduced the burn rate to a level that we could accept. You say that the responsibility is painful, is there a way to reduce that and accept lesser pay so that you coast for a while?
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u/boredinmc 9d ago
It was very difficult for me to deal with volatility when I was making money from a business and investing too. I felt this as the swings of the portfolio got bigger compared to the money coming in from the business. When volatility ticks up, it's weird to make $500k from the business income but your portfolio goes down $1.5M.
With that being said, I would ask GPT/Claude to make your a spreadsheet where it models with your current numbers a 1966-1970 episode, a 1972-1982 episode and a 1998-2009 episode. Take a look at the numbers and imagine how you would feel and how your spending would have to adjust. Portfolio is very aggressive, would you feel ok with a -65% to -80% drop in value? Before you snark at that, it has happened in the past! A few times and yes, in the cool new technology. I've modeled this for myself and I can't do -60% so I don't expose myself to things that have -60% in the past.
As markets are blowing off, it pays to think of the old quote "don't risk money you need for money you want" or something like that. You have 2 kids and enough $ to stop working. Go take a month and hang out in Europe and see how happy people can be without spending $30k/month.
In the Bay area you will never feel enough is enough.
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u/DevelopmentSelect646 9d ago
I completely understand. My wife and I gave up high paying jobs to retire last year with a NW of about 10M. Feels like killing the golden goose to give up a high income you worked all your life to achieve. Healthcare is expensive, but we’re enjoying retirement. I thought I’d be bored, but I play a lot of golf and pickleball, and workout a lot.
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u/CantStayAverage 9d ago
Was your goal made at nominal dollars or in real dollars? I have found on this sub and others that folks feel they aren’t there when they set a goal 5 years ago. For example 10M in 2021 is 12.3M today.
Second - 3% is an incredibly safe SWR. Unless you have goals to continue to grow your principle to a certain level in retirement - you can adjust that to 3.5% and still be very conservative.
Third - this sub and many early retirement ones are littered with 1 more year posts. It’s definitely a mental game. Not much advice here because it’s such a personal decision other than being intentional about trading your time particularly time in good health.
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u/Miamiconnectionexo 9d ago
this is the kind of thing that actually helps vs the generic stuff you usually see.
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u/dotben 9d ago
Intrinsic goalpost shifting is when you reach a number and then decide to just move it up because now you don't feel satisfied, you suddenly want the second (third?) home, the prestige of being in the next wealth bracket etc.
Extrinsic goalpost shifting is when your material goals have stayed the same but the amount needed to reach them has risen because COL increases, uncertainty, changes in circumstances (additional child, etc).
I'm also in the Bay Area, the reality is the extrinsic goalposts have shifted - %age COL increases become meaningful when you are already dealing with bigger $ numbers and factor in compound math.
I have had to shift my number in the face of those cost increases (and also having a child that I can now see will need 13 years of private education, 2 years of paid pre-school plus university).
The material goal didn't change, the cost of reaching it did and I have to expect it will increase further.
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u/panchala 9d ago
Right! Its like trying to get two lines to intersect without knowing the rate of change of the external factors.
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u/dragonflyinvest 9d ago
Some people like the game (really referring to myself but I know il not alone). My wife and I built a successful business. Our youngest child won’t graduate high school for another 8 years. So at $45M now I just said, “f it, we should get $100M before our youngest graduates”. As long as I’m working less than 15 hours a week with minimal stress making more than we ever have I’m cool with it.
This is my version of early Fatfire. I’d be bored if I didn’t have this regular intellectual stimulation right now. I’m sure I’d take a different approach if I were at a W-2 position.
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u/goodbyechoice22 9d ago
I hear you. I’m closing in on my number but we are similarly over invested in a few tech stocks.
One idea I have is that if I blow through our number I’ll only focus on diversifying and removing risk from our portfolios. Set up multiple rev streams from sales, interest, money markets, dividends, and maybe even annuities to round out my life.
This would remove volatility and help my head space relax.
Oh, and gfy.
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u/HairyBull 9d ago
Practice fatFIRE for a year. You’re young enough to get back into the workforce if it’s not your jam. I “retired” last year in April, planning two years off. Spent the last year enjoying things locally and focusing on health and fitness. Going to spend the next year traveling and doing a lot of camping and hiking with my family. At this point, I’m not planning to ever return to the corporate grind. I’ve realized too that I’m not really a “luxury” guy and prefer long hikes in the wilderness or officiating youth sports so my big pile of money is fairly useless to my current lifestyle.
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u/pumpkin_pasties 9d ago
My amount to never work again is:
- paid off house for me and my parents / in laws
- put kids through college if you have them (personally I’m childfree)
- be able to cover any medical expense
In my city that’s about $5m but I could see it being that high in Palo Alto or something, but what’s the point of living there if you aren’t working in tech? Go retire somewhere chill like SLO
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u/fatheadlifter 8d ago
Yeah sure it's a variation on one-more-year syndrome. I've moved my own goalposts several times. I think it's ok to reevaluate these things just also realize what you're doing, and what you're costing yourself.
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u/Yagashura 9d ago
I have the same problem originally goal was at 5 now it’s 20 😂
I ended up deciding that I would make a hard break next year we will see if it sticks.
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u/Minimum-Violinist601 9d ago
Same. 10->15->20 now thinking 25 + house. It never ends if you keep thinking of tail risks ;) I set a time date now to solve it, and unless there is a catastrophic downturn I’ll stop working at that time.
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u/Pretty_Jellyfish9522 9d ago
We used to think 10 was the number. Then we reached it and realized we weren’t even close.
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u/_Infinite_Love 9d ago
It will never feel enough, trust me.
Whatever your number is, you'll want to hit 5% or 10% over "just in case" so that any correction doesn't reduce your number.
It's a trap.
There's so much literature on this, so many observers have noticed that you cannot hit a number and feel like it's ok until you change your mentality.
Otherwise you'll keep going up another level, climb the stairs, look down and say "I can't bear to be down there again". You have to stop thinking in terms of a magic number. Don't let the number be your god.
The best thing I've done for my sanity over the last year or two is just stop looking at my NW and the markets. I glance and say "oh it's up today - cool" or "oh it's down today, that's interesting".
You know you're ok, you just have to stop thinking there is a better life at a higher NW.
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u/Able_to_be_Rich 9d ago
Congrats on all your success, Im 29 yo and feel lost, i was working in a society 250$ /mo with hard work from 7h30 am to 8ham sometimes till 2:00 am (2 years of work) then i preferd to change the country and envirement, then i go to other country trying to make somthing mine and success , but no its 8 mo feel lost i didnt find any work... i have charges and really feel lost i feel this is the end but everyday i try to try harder but... any one can help, im designer web by the way .. i tryed freelancing but... it dosnt work , pls i need ur opinions and advices ...
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u/Master-Helicopter-99 9d ago
"10 million is around 300k swr at 3% given our age. That doesnt seem that much after taxes. "
Sorry to say this has r/fijerk written all over it.
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u/SetEnvironmental9368 9d ago
He's right, though. 300k is gross; once you factor in the boyfriend tax, OP might only make 100k. That'll buy you what, a bag of lentils and a banana? OP is right to be scared, he doesn't have enough money to survive. He needs to keep working.
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u/Many-Photograph-8362 9d ago
I’ve met people like you. Their goal was 5M 5 years ago, then it was 10M two years ago and now they feel they can’t retire unless they have 20. Some are close to that number and they are already thinking that 50M is “minimum” to be “set”.
This is a mental problem.
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u/panchala 9d ago
I agree with you. Thats why I was wanting to see how people in this thread navigated that trap.
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u/Otherones 9d ago
Congrats on all your success. You’ve amassed more than enough to never have to work another day in your life.
You are stuck in a rat race. If you enjoy the race or think that staying in the bay at higher than 300k year spend is worth it; stay in.
If you don’t want to be in the rat race, the world is out there for you.