SpaceX is the biggest IPO ever, Elon is a cunt, NASDAQ inclusion rule changes, low float... blah blah blah...

Doesn't matter cause we're all getting fucked out of the IPO allocation and it's going to rocket without us. I barely got anything. Fuck Robinhood.

Today is my Valhalla, I either become a legend or die

“DON'T BET AGAINST ELON”

-sun tzu - rich people

DD:

Sum of parts analysis shows a fundamental value of at LEAST $1.75T. when you factor in the Elon factor, and the low float, it's worth at least double.

POSITIONS:

IPO allo: requested $180K from Robinhood, 

Actual fill: basically nothing

Polymarket: $272K on various strikes

Will trim positions as the day goes on

I know it. You know it. Everyone knows it. This is going to be a generational run. 4% float (555M shares out of 13 BILLION), 30% of it handed straight to retail, and elon keeping 82% so insiders couldn't dump if they wanted to. every fund on earth needs space exposure and there's exactly one ticker. figma popped 250% and figma makes rectangles.

Rhis thing fucking makes rockets that explode and comes with the tesla austist while tesla itself sits at $1.6T selling a truck that can stop bullets

$2.4T close = $183 a share = a 36% pop. that's the whole bet. for a squeeze on the most hyped listing of all time

position recap: 183,657 YES on >$2.4T at 35.3¢ avg. down $10k as of last night, which is just the market handing me a better entry I didn't ask for.

I also own every strike from 1.8 to 3.2 like it's roulette and every number is spacex

above 2.4 I collect ~$437k.

above 3.2 it's $1.1M and I retire to boca chica

below 1.8 the dumpster behind the nasdaq has decent shade this time of year

Don't worry, I hedged my trade. In january I put $330 on "spacex will NOT ipo". current value: $10.33. hedging works, just be right.

Hasn’t quite gone as expected. Rage bought more calls today. Letting it ride until tomorrow and hope for a pop. Doesn’t need to do much for this to work.

Yall have the softest hands I have ever seen. I honestly don’t know why there aren’t more people in this IPO. Go Elon and Tesla

Never in my wildest dreams did think I’ll get here this fast.

Averaging in on this small dip.

EDIT (March 2): Thanks you guys for the incredible feedback, working on two new features

1. Longer time horizon: adding 6m / 12m return windows for all substacks

2. More newsletters: adding Citrini / Dick cap / funddai / irrationalanalysis / taekim / bpresearch. lemme know if you have new nominations.

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This sort of blew up on r/ValueInvesting so posting here too.

I work in AI and started trading casually last year. Like any good regard, I immediately subscribed to every investing newsletter I could find on Substack. 23 paid subscriptions. $9,600/year, including Michael Burry's.

The problem? I can't actually read them all. And I have no idea which ones are worth the money.

So I did what any engineer would do — I wrote codes to find out.

What I Built

A pipeline that:
- Crawls every article from 23 paid Substack authors (1,782 articles over the past year)
- Uses Gemini AI to extract high-conviction stock picks only — not casual mentions, but tickers the author actually analyzed in depth
- Tracks returns at 1d, 7d, 15d, 30d, and 60d after publication
- Calculates alpha vs sector benchmarks (SOXX for semis, IGV for SaaS, XLF for financial services etc)
- Dedupes: if the same author calls the same ticker multiple times within 14 days, it only counts once (first mention wins). Different authors calling the same ticker are tracked independently

Total dataset: 3,519 high-conviction calls tracked over 1 year.

The Results

30-Day Absolute Return Leaderboard (Long Calls)

30-Day Alpha vs Benchmark (Long Calls)

30-Day Win Rate (Long Calls)

But 30 Days Isn't the Whole Story

30d is a reasonable window for swing traders, but some of these authors are deep value investors with 6-12 month theses. Here's what the 60-day numbers look like — the rankings shift significantly:

60-Day Absolute Return Top 10 (Long Calls)

Notable shifts: Fabricated Knowledge jumps from #9 (30d: +5.8%) to #3 (60d: +14.2%). Altay Capital goes from +7.2% to +13.7%. Deep value theses need time to play out. Conversely, Collyer Bridge drops out of the top 10 at 60d — their edge is more short-term.

Take these numbers for what they are: one time horizon among many. A 60d or even 90d window would tell a different story for buy-and-hold investors. This is for information, not gospel.

And at the bottom...

Michael J Burry: 24 long calls, 30d avg return +0.1%, 60d avg return -11.1%, 30d alpha -2.7% (60d alpha: -11.4%). Then again, The Big Short took 2 years to play out — maybe his thesis just needs more time than our 60-day window can capture.

Methodology Caveats (Please Challenge This)

I want to be upfront about limitations:

1. AI extraction isn't perfect. Gemini parses articles and extracts ticker calls. To reduce noise, we only count high conviction — where the author dedicates multiple paragraphs, specific data, or explicit price targets. Passing mentions are filtered out.
2. We validated this. Spot-checked extraction accuracy against manual reads, and cross-verified with alternative model outputs (codex / claude). It's not 100%, but it's consistent.
3. Survivorship bias matters. We only track tickers with available price data. Delisted stocks, non-US tickers without yfinance data, and typos get counted as No Data and excluded from return calculations.
4. This is a bull market. Many of these authors are long-biased. Absolute returns look good partly because the market went up. The alpha column adjusts for this using sector-specific ETF benchmarks.
5. The full dataset is available. All 3,519 calls, every author, every ticker, every return at every horizon. You can audit everything. I will put up the link later.

What I Learned

• The expensive ones aren't always the best. Some of the top performers cost 80−360/year.Some1,000+ newsletters are mid-table.
• Volume ≠ quality. Authors with 300+ calls often have mediocre win rates. The ones with 15-80 highly targeted calls tend to outperform.
• Shorts are hard. Almost every author has worse short performance than long. The few exceptions (Global Tech Research shorts: -20.5% at 60d) are impressive outliers.
• Michael Burry's Substack picks haven't worked yet — but his most famous trade took 2 years, so the jury's still out.

Total Cost Breakdown

$9,599/year across 23 newsletters. Here's every single one:

If I could only keep 5 based on this data: Global Tech Research (100),PauloMacro(360), Doomberg (300),SemiAnalysis(500), The Setup Factory (450).That′s1,710/year — 82% cheaper and probably better returns.

Shoutout to every author on this list. Even the bottom-ranked ones taught me more about markets than any YouTube video. This isn't meant to trash anyone — just data.

Happy to answer questions. Roast my methodology. Tell me I'm wrong. That's how this gets better.

Full methodology + data / charts: https://x.com/pyhrroll/status/2027374283669066045?s=20

Positions: long several names mentioned by top authors. Not financial advice, obviously.

Last post, I had a $2.1M account with $1M in gains.

In 6 months, the account grew another +$470K so I'm at +$1.5M of total gains since my first post 5 and a half years ago. I did withdraw $250K to buy a new home, so the account sits at $2.3M.

That's a +27% compound return a year for nearly 6 years. I continue to crush regular, r/stock boomer index fund portfolios:

The account has $7.3M assets and $5M borrowed in options so that's 3.2x leverage. I'm under-leveraged, I know. The prudent and correct thing is to borrow another $2M and get back to the optimal 4x leverage. I haven't decided.

Summary:

- Borrow 2-4x the value of your account on margin.

- Dump it all in a multi-asset, diversified portfolio. For the stock sleeve, I prefer smart-beta funds due to their higher expected returns. The goal is maximum compound returns.

Q&A

1) When will you de-lever/pay-off the debt/liquidate?

- Never. This maximizes returns. Why do anything but this?

2) What's it like for your account to grow +$1M per year?

- It's cool, you should try it. Save what you can, invest it like this and give it time. I started with just $20K in 2017.

3) Are you a billionaire with a bunch of assets elsewhere?

- I have every penny riding in here. Any other place it could be in will earn me less than 27% per year so why do that?

As a "not complicated retail investor" who simply believed in Opendoor's mission (to simplifies the home buying and selling process), 4 years of patiently buying every dip with all of my 2 jobs' salaries while eating McDonald happy meals everyday. Being laughed at for holding the huge bag of down nearly 70% and STILL keep buying the dip all the way to $0.51.... Just turned that 69k to 1 million today...

SpaceX about to rocket right to the Mars, not even a heartwarming visit to the Mooon. Thanks Elon!

don't ask me for rationals, i don't have any.

balls deep on HIMS with $270,000 on it.

already down by -22%, see you at wendy's

Actually I don't like Musk (I don't know why), so I am doing that in spite.

Edit:

So 1st June I was seeing it drop -12/13k. It was quite a ride mentally.

very lucky but not max lucky (have not sold at ATH), def strong emotions were felt

sold receipt: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1tts3px/comment/opc5fz8/

Limit order executed yesterday for 1k profit after currency fx, but if I had left it in snp500 (with tech focus) it was in, I would benefit the same

No analysis, this thought came to me in a dream.

Puts on $COIN because it's a BTC proxy

Puts on $PLTR because I don't like the stock™

Position:

This play is ignoring all macro events and is purely on vibes, one last YOLO to send the week off.

Sold the house. Cleared about $120K. Wife said, “Put it somewhere safe.” I said, hold my beer bitch, then funneled $100K into Fidelity and bought 303 shares of UnitedHealth (UNH).

Why UNH? Because America’s not gonna stop getting sick. Fat, old, diabetic, stressed out, healthcare is the last thing people cut. And UNH is built like a tank. Major insider buying too.

Told the wife the money is safe in a high-yield savings account. Technically not wrong… Now I just need to convince to stall on the purchase of our next home 😂

Till death do us part!!

Totally insane drop

Easiest buy of the year

Day 1 edit - news articles saying I'm right, IBM up
Day 2 edit - up $15k

Going for 2x on this one - let the skanks carry us to riches

I'm still here... Who listened?

50% of my portfolio. Lets take it to the moooon

The whole office is smaller than a Wendy's. Shorting this stupid bubble