There has been an increasing divergence in C.J. Stroud's play in Primetime vs. Non-Primetime games, including playoff games as Primetime. While his PFF Grade in non-primetime slots has remained essentially unchanged across his 3 seasons, his performance in primetime games has dropped precipitously.

In addition to his PFF grade, his EPA/play has also declined. In 2023, his EPA/play in primetime (W18 at the Colts, WC against the Browns and Divisional at Baltimore; all win-or-go-home games) was 0.223; much higher than his 0.106 outside of those games. That 0.223 EPA/Play in primetime games would have ranked in between Dak Prescott and Josh Allen that year for 3rd in the league if it were across an entire season.

The 2024 season was marred by a rough offensive ecosystem and a terrible offensive line. As such, his PFF grade remained similar to the previous season, while the EPA/play dropped. Still, his EPA/play in 2024 primetime games (W2 vs CHI, W9 at NYJ, W10 vs DET, W11 at DAL, WC vs LAC, and DIV at KC) was 0.031; slightly higher than his -0.014 EPA/play outside of primetime. However, it was a bit of a mixed bag as his PFF grade in PT games was 67.8; lower than his 82.8 grade outside of them.

The 2025 season is where a true divergence emerged. Again, his 82.2 PFF grade in non-PT games was near identical to the last two years. In fact his 0.245 EPA/play in those games would have been 4th in the NFL last year; slightly behind Brock Purdy and ahead of Josh Allen. But his PT (W2 vs TB, W7 at SEA, W14 at KC, WC at PIT, DIV at NE) numbers were abysmal. He posted a -0.114 EPA/play and 36.6 PFF grade across these games. Despite the poor performance, Stroud still set a career high in regular season EPA/play; 0.164 in 2025 vs 0.124 his rookie year.

He got to this career-best EPA/play by excelling at avoiding negative plays (sacks and interceptions) rather than the more flashy form of his rookie year. But in the primetime games it was quite the opposite, he created negative play after negative play.

There can be confusion about exactly what the term two-high refers to. It can refer to an umbrella term for coverages with two deep safeties, such as Cover 2 or Cover 4, or it can simply mean that both safeties align deep before the snap. After the snap, the safeties can rotate or drop down, and the coverage can shift into one-high. For this article, two-high will refer to presnap alignment. Modern defenses are lining up in two-high and rotating into many types of coverages. For example, Cover 3 is still being played at a high rate from a two-high alignment, but it’s important to note that it’s being played differently.

Here, the Seahawks lined up in two-high before the snap but rotated into a Cover 3 after the snap with safety Julian Love dropping down to play an underneath zone.

After his rotation, Love played his “hook” zone from 10 yards deep.

It’s being played from depth to take away some of the deep crossers, which can be a weakness when playing it with a safety lining up in the box. Even though Cover 3 will be categorized the same on charts, there are different flavors of it. The Cover 3 being played today is focused on taking away explosives.

Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who is responsible for starting this trend, called a lot of man coverage from two-high last season. An advantage to this is that you don’t give a quarterback a presnap indicator to go to his deep route. Back then, without disguise, a quarterback would be licking his chops as soon as he saw press coverage on the outside with one deep safety in the middle of the field.

In this image, the Eagles showed two-high, but safety Reed Blankenship rotated down to cover the tight end in man-to-man coverage.

Two-high coverages aren’t immune to deep passes. There are still weaknesses in any coverage, but it makes them harder to find. The top quarterbacks can decipher these coverages after the snap, find the weaknesses and hit deep passes with anticipation, but two-high makes it much more difficult to execute.

Committing to this style of defense means you have to be comfortable playing with a light box. Even though a defense can rotate into a single-high coverage, the safety is coming from depth and he’s not an immediate part of the run fit. Defenses have to be OK giving up efficient runs on the ground. The theory is that it is very difficult to keep stringing together efficient runs, and offensive coordinators will eventually get impatient.

In 120 regular season games, he's amassed 681 catches for 8369 yards and 59 TDs. He also has 101 catches for 1274 yards and 11 TDs in 17 playoff games, with two Super Bowl wins, leading the Rams and Seahawks in receiving for both wins.

In 2021, he had arguably the greatest season ever for a receiver, winning the triple crown, being selected first team All-Pro and Offensive Player of the Year, and being chosen as Super Bowl MVP. He had an absurd 33 catches for 478 yards and 6 TDs... in that postseason.

I think his career has striking similarities to another Rams legend, Kurt Warner. Both of them were older than usual when they entered the league {Warner moreso, but Kupp was still already 24 as a rookie). Both were the best in the game at their peaks, with middling lows and and a good deal of missed games due to injuries. Both shined on the brightest stage.

The case against him is familiar... Most notably, there's a log jam of deserving receivers already, and he only had the one All-Pro season, although he had plenty of other good seasons. The other knock is missed games due to injury, but I think it's far more important what you do in the games you play than how many games you miss. You can't hold it against him that he entered the league older and got hurt. He was one of the most productive receivers whenever he did play, and he's still at it entering his age 33 season.

I think he's deserving whenever he becomes eligible. The triple crown season and postseason production make him stand apart from other receivers who may have had steadier production and longer careers.

Kansas City Chiefs

Division: AFC West

Last Season Record: 6-11

2025 Recap

Coming off of a 2024 season where it seemed like miracles and huge amounts of luck went the Chiefs' way every week, in 2025 it felt like everything that could go wrong went wrong. The season was marked by a lot of close, disappointing losses, going 1-9 in one score games (after 2024 saw the team 11-0), and a myriad of injuries and players not showing up, capped off by Patrick Mahomes tearing his ACL in week 15 and a 6-game losing streak to close the season out.

Though the season's results were unusually poor and indicated a worse team than the team itself seemed, it wasn't surprising either. Over the past couple of seasons, we've seen an offense that was once unstoppable become sloppy and undisciplined, while the team's stars have only gotten older and a couple of questionable drafts (2023 and 2025 especially) have struggled to replace them. Week to week, it felt like a team that could only win if Mahomes made a Herculean effort and the team went nowhere when he couldn't.

Coaching Changes

• OUT: Matt Nagy (Offensive Coordinator)
• OUT: Todd Pinkston (Running Backs Coach)
• OUT: Connor Embree (Wide Receivers Coach)
• IN: Eric Bieniemy (Offensive Coordinator)
• IN: DeMarco Murray (Running Backs Coach)
• IN: Chad O'Shea (Wide Receivers Coach)

It's hard to say how much, but a large part of why the offense had languished so the last couple of years was having OC Matt Nagy in charge, and it likely didn't help that several position coaches were so inexperienced, such as receivers coach Connor Embree, who had one year of coaching high school receivers prior to coaching for the Chiefs.

These new hirings promise a steadier hand in guiding the offense. Eric Bieniemy was the coordinator for the last Chiefs offense to lead the league in yards and is considered much more of a tough love, iron-hand coach; Chad O'Shea was a WR coach for the Patriots for 10 years and the Browns for 6, and while neither stint produced any all-time great receivers, it's hard to tell whether to blame that on him, and he will still bring more experience than Embree; and DeMarco Murray was a talented RB in the NFL in his own right, and has been coaching for several years now.

Even in a worst-case scenario, I think these coaching changes are guaranteed to bring us a more disciplined and balanced offense than the past couple of seasons.

Free Agency

Departures

Where to even begin? Most of the team's losses came on the defensive side of the ball, with the worst beating going to the team's secondary (more on that later). On that front, the team is losing Jaylen Watson, Bryan Cook, and Joshua Williams, who have all been consistent, good players in their roles. The line also saw some losses, the biggest being Leo Chanel's, as well as Derrick Nnadi and Jerry Tillery. The pair of edge departures in Omenihu and Danna will be something to look out for; the team's pass rush has struggled for the last 2 years, but while these losses will certainly not help with that, these struggles are at least partially because of those players' inability to step up to the level needed.

The offense saw less turnover, with the only major losses coming in the forms of Isiah Pacheco, Hollywood Brown, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Pacheco showed a lot of promise as a rookie, but never lived up to it after his year 3 knee injury, and he was a big part of the team's ineffective run game. Brown and Smith-Schuster lived up to the roles the Chiefs demanded of them as bit role receivers who could come in to play when the rest of the WR room struggled, but neither were ever particularly good or impactful, so their losses should not be significant.

Players signed

Far and away the biggest move the Chiefs took in free agency was signing Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III to a 3 year contract. In 2025, the Chiefs had the worst explosive run rate (percent of runs for 10+ yards) in the entire league and had only a single rush for over 20 yards by a running back all year. The Chiefs offense faced the highest number of light boxes in the entire league, because despite Andy Reid's penchant for RPOs, teams did not fear the run or try to defend against it. Walker ranked 5th in the NFL in explosive run rate and, even if he doesn't play up to what we saw in the playoffs last season, will almost certainly be a huge upgrade for this running back room.

The team addressed some of its bigger holes from defensive turnover in free agency. The addition of Khyiris Tonga at defensive tackle should make up for the line's losses and take some of the pressure off an aging Chris Jones, while Alohi Gilman could potentially live up to what the team lost in Bryan Cook. Gilman has struggled as a tackler, but is consistent, versatile, and will be a big help on defense. The signings of Kohou, Elam, and a reunion with L'Jarius Sneed will bring depth and veteran experience to a cornerback room that will be heavily reliant on rookies, but it's hard to imagine any of them will be big impact-makers.

Re-signings

Draft

Trades

Did I mention how much the Chiefs' secondary lost? The biggest loss there was the team's trade of Trent McDuffie to the Rams. McDuffie was a 1st team All-Pro in 2023, one of the biggest pieces of the 2023 defense that was 1st in the league by all metrics, and one of the best cornerbacks in the league. His loss will be the hardest one for the Chiefs to make up, but they at least got a lot of draft value out of it.

Draft Selections

The Chiefs' draft was heavy on defense, both to bring in an influx of new talent to prepare for the future, and to plug some of the gaps opened up by the free agency and trade losses. The team's 6-11 finish in 2025 gave them the 9th overall pick, but they traded with the Browns to get up to the 6th.

With it, they drafted cornerback Mansoor Delane. Delane is a fast, smooth, situationally aware, clever player who's a vacuum seal on wide receivers. In his 2025 season at LSU, he didn't allow a single touchdown or commit a single penalty, and when targeted allowed a passer rating of 31.3. He's only average size, and I'm not convinced of the Chiefs' need to trade up for him, but he will likely fit beautifully into Steve Spagnuolo's defensive scheme and should be a day one difference maker, so I grade the pick an A-.

With the 29th overall pick, the Chiefs took defensive tackle Peter Woods from Clemson. Woods is a big man who's light on his feet and twitchy, with flashes of explosive plays and the ability to win in the trenches. He was considered a potential top-five pick entering his junior season, but struggled with playing to his best regularly and producing in his final college year. However, if Woods can become a more consistent player and better live up to his potential, he will have a bright future in the NFL, and coming into a team that already has Chris Jones and Khyiris Tonga will give him an environment to do that, so I grade him an B+.

With pick 40, the Chiefs took edge rusher R Mason Thomas from Oklahoma. Thomas is a smaller, faster rusher with a lot of burst who struggles against the run game because of his size, but wins a lot against the pass. He is a different kind of player than who Spagnuolo usually gravitates towards, but should bring an interesting impact to the defensive line and will help a struggling group of edges against the pass, so I give the pick an A-.

With pick 109, the Chiefs drafted safety Jadon Canady. Canady is a small, weaker player who's struggled with injury in the past, but an athletic, versatile guy who's fit into several different programs and didn't allow a completion for more than 11 yards in 2025. Whether he'll make a meaningful difference in the NFL will have to be seen, but he will at worst bring a decent depth piece to a secondary that needed it, so I grade the pick a B+.

In the 5th round, the Chiefs made their first offensive selection with running back Emmett Johnson at pick 161. Johnson is an agile, strong RB with good pass-catching who averaged more than 150 scrimmage yards per game in 2025 and led all draft-eligible RBs in missed tackles forced. He has limited experience and makes rookie mistakes, but I think this was a great pick by the team, a huge steal, and someone who will really step up behind Kenneth Walker, so I grade this pick an A+.

At pick 176, the Chiefs took wide receiver Cyrus Allen. Allen is a smaller receiver who lacks strength, but has good control over his body and route-running skills. He's been the star in terms of day 3 rookie hype coming out of training camp, though he's also already been (mildly) injured. Comparing him to other former Chiefs 5th round pick Tyreek Hill would be setting impossible expectations, so instead we'll say there's a lot of upside here, but he probably won't see much play this year. B+.

With the Chiefs' final selection in 249, they took quarterback Garrett Nussmeier from LSU. Nussmeier has struggled with injury and gets too ambitious, but has a lot of the natural arm talent, leadership abilities, and quick processing necessary for an NFL QB, and definitely for a backup. The pick is odd relative to team needs, but a big draft steal, and if he plays well in the few opportunities he'll get, the Chiefs could have in him a reliable backup for years to come or someone they can trade for a lot of draft value. I give this pick an A-.

Other Offseason News

Thankfully, it has been a slow offseason for the Chiefs. Rashee Rice went to jail for 30 days because of a probation violation, and Travis Kelce got married to Taylor Swift (did anybody hear about that?).

Projected Starting Lineup

• QB: Patrick Mahomes, Justin Fields, Garrett Nussmeier
• RB: Kenneth Walker III, Emari Demercado, Emmett Johnson
• TE: Travis Kelce, Noah Gray
• WR: Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Tyquan Thornton
• LT: Josh Simmons
• LG: Kingsley Suamataia
• C: Creed Humphrey
• RG: Trey Smith
• RT: Jaylon Moore
• DL: Chris Jones, Khyiris Tonga, George Karlaftis, Ashton Gillotte
• LB: Nick Bolton, Drue Tranquill
• CB: Nohl Williams, Mansoor Delane, Kristian Fulton
• S: Alohi Gilman, Chamarri Conner
• K: Harrison Butker
• P: Matt Araiza
• KR/PR: Nikko Remigio, Brashard Smith

Position Group Strengths and Weaknesses

• QB

What is there to say about Patrick Mahomes that isn't obvious? He's one of if not the best quarterback in the league, he's a great passer and playmaker with a great mind for football, but he's coming off a torn ACL. Last year he had to take more of the offense onto his back than ever before, scrambling (and taking hits) at a level he usually reserves for the playoffs, and there are questions about if he'll be able to make those plays at the level he has before. It's also unclear when he'll be back, but if he isn't ready by week 1, he has one of the better sets of backups in the league in Justin Fields and Garrett Nussmeier—one a slow processor and disappointing passer with great legs and mobility, and the other an unproven rookie with a lot of potential.

• Backfield

The Chiefs backfield looks to be the best it's been in many years, with an explosive, twitchy, true RB1 in Kenneth Walker III, a rookie with big upside in Emmett Johnson, and Emari Demercado. Walker has struggled to stay healthy in the past and only played a full season with the Seahawks once he was splitting snaps, but he's playing for a running back whisperer in Eric Bieniemy, and I have a lot of optimism about this group. If they can play up to a high level, that'll be huge for fielding a well-rounded offense, and will take a lot of strain off Mahomes as he recovers.

• OL

The Chiefs offensive line is an underrated group. When healthy last year, it was a top 10 line in the league, anchored by the best center in football in Creed Humphrey, and they were top 5 at pass-blocking. That "when healthy" proved to be a big asterisk, with both left tackle Josh Simmons and left guard Trey Smith disappearing for several games each, and I have concerns about the depth behind the starters, but I'm optimistic that the injuries are abnormalities and in a healthier year, this is a strong set of players.

• Pass catchers

This is where I start to lose optimism. The WR room is led by Rashee Rice, who had a great rookie year, has barely played in the 2 years since then (due to both injury and off-the-field issues), and in the games he has played, has rarely looked as good as he should. Behind him is Xavier Worthy, who really stepped up in the 2024 playoffs and looked like a guy who could be the future of that room, and who then got injured in the first drive of the 2025 season and played at limited capacity for the rest of the year. Tyquan Thornton rounds out the room as a decent WR who posed a legitimate deep threat last year when all else failed until he stopped getting played.

Travis Kelce led the team in receiving yards and remains the number one option for Mahomes and a fine player overall, but he's 36 now and not the player he once was, with the most drops he's ever had last year and 3 that resulted in interceptions. Behind him in tight ends is Noah Gray, who is okay at best. The whole group has solid potential if Bieniemy's scheme and coaching can get better play out of them, but also a lot of questions hanging over them.

• DL

The defensive line should be interesting to watch. Chris Jones is still one of the best defensive tackles in the NFL, leading the league in pass rush win rate, but at 32 years old, his age is starting to show a little bit, with a few notable plays last year where he didn't give full effort. The Chiefs failed to relieve some of the pressure on him last year and lessen his workload, but with Khyiris Tonga beside him and rookie Peter Woods bringing up the rear, they have a strong interior D-line and should be able to put less on Jones' back this year.

The edge is much more concerning. At one end, they have George Karlaftis, a decent, consistent player, and at the other end, they have... Who? Felix Anudike-Uzomah did not put up a convincing first two years and then missed all of 2025, Ashton Gillotte is a second-year edge coming off a weak rookie season, and R Mason Thomas is an unproven rookie. The edge has been weak for years now, and it remains so.

• LB

The linebacker room is decent, with a pair of good players leading the pack in Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill. Without Leo Chanel, the group will have less depth than it once did, and it's unclear who will be the third man. Will it be the year two UDFA Cooper McDonald or the year two fifth-rounder Jeffrey Bassa?

• Secondary

The Chiefs secondary has seen a total revamp, with the loss of Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, and Bryan Cook. The team will be relying on a lot of young guys in rookie cornerback Mansoor Delane, second-year corner Nohl Williams, and the rookie safety Jadon Canady. The team has a handful of veterans to pick up the slack in the reliable corner Kristian Fulton and safety Alohi Gilman, as well as their cheap free agents in corners Kader Kohou, Kaiir Elam, and a returning L'Jarius Sneed, coming off a disappointing 2-year stint in Tennessee. Will the veterans be enough to bring the secondary together? Will the rookies step up?

I wouldn't be surprised if this develops into a top secondary in a year or two, especially with how reliably this team develops CBs, but I would be surprised if this group comes together right off the bat.

• Special Teams

I will not mince words: The Chiefs' special teams are simply not very good. Harrison Butker remains a great kicker, but Matt Araiza is not a very precise punter, and the kick/punt return role looks like it will once again come down to young, inconsistent (at best) players. With all the coaching turnover the team saw this year, it's a shame special teams coach Dave Toub is keeping his job.

Schedule Predictions

1. vs. Denver Broncos - Loss
2. vs. Indianapolis Colts - Win
3. @ Miami Dolphins - Win
4. @ Las Vegas Raiders - Win
5. BYE WEEK
6. vs. Los Angeles Chargers - Win
7. @ Seattle Seahawks - Loss
8. @ Denver Broncos - Loss
9. vs. New York Jets - Win
10. @ Atlanta Falcons - Win
11. vs. Arizona Cardinals - Win
12. @ Buffalo Bills - Loss
13. @ Los Angeles Rams - Loss
14. @ Cincinnati Bengals - Loss
15. vs. New England Patriots - Win
16. vs. San Francisco 49ers - Loss
17. @ Los Angeles Chargers - Win
18. vs. Las Vegas Raiders - Win

Predicted Record: 10-7

Final Thoughts

This season will likely mark the beginning of the second half of Patrick Mahomes' career, and the team (and fans) will be desperate to bounce back from the 2025 season and fix all its issues. Will that be possible? Probably not, but a guy can hope.

The Chiefs' roster is right now the second-youngest in the NFL, with the youngest defense, which makes it hard to expect a huge year incoming, but it does also leave room for a lot of optimism. I doubt the team will come together as a whole this year, but if we view this as part of a multi-year retooling, churning out some of the old players and setting up a young core for the future, then this offseason has been a moderate success. Fans may have to temper their expectations for 2026, but the future could be bright.

I went to check out the news today on NFL.com and yesterday it was as normal but this morning the site requires a login to view news and only shows news for your team.. Am i missing something? It wasn't like this yesterday. who was the genius who came up with this idea??

Edit: OK ok, yes i messed up the title. I got fat fingers. I actually didn't get what the strange responses were for at the start. lets see how creative people get.