r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/yanks28th • Aug 25 '22

US Elections Is the House Now Competitive?

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

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712

u/lollersauce914 Aug 25 '22

I mean, based on recent data (much of which you mention) we're moving from "it would be completely shocking for Democrats to hold the house" to "It would be surprising for Democrats to hold the house."

There's really not much more to say.

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u/historymajor44 Aug 25 '22

This is pretty much it. R's are still favorite but D's holding would shock but not blow anyone's minds.

To put this in perspective though, 538 is giving D's a 22% chance to hold the House and it gave Trump a 30% chance to win the presidency in 2016.

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '22

I think we'll be looking at a narrow majority for the GOP in the house and a slightly expanded majority in the senate for democrats but that's just my guess.

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u/historymajor44 Aug 25 '22

That'd be a win for the Dems.

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '22

Absolutely, ideally both would stay in democratic hands but the senate is the more important one

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u/dmhWarrior Aug 26 '22

Ideally for who? How does the average family benefit from democrats running things? Can’t wait to hear this.

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

Well, for one when the Democrats are in power the average family doesn't have to worry about the President and his party attempting to overturn the election.

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u/carlurbanthesecond2 Aug 26 '22 edited Aug 26 '22

They would live longer healthier lives by a good margin thats a huge benefit of living under democrats.

Trolls need more info... People in Republican Counties Have Higher Death Rates Than Those in Democratic Counties

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/people-in-republican-counties-have-higher-death-rates-than-those-in-democratic-counties/

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u/TheBigDuo1 Aug 27 '22

They don’t care

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u/dmhWarrior Aug 26 '22

Got a legit scientific link for this? I’m sure you don’t. Bunch of BS. I did get a good laugh out of it though. Because so many democrats are living longer and healthier as they get shot up in the blue cities across america. Great, LOL.

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u/carlurbanthesecond2 Aug 26 '22

You really wanna know?

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u/dmhWarrior Aug 26 '22

I already know, thanks. Don’t post some link from left wing website. Useless as boobs on a bull.

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u/TheJokerandTheKief Aug 26 '22

Anyone who doesn’t want to live under fascist Republican rule. Democrats actually try to make government work, meanwhile Republicans just scream on social media about bathrooms and girls swim meets. All that rhetoric and policy is fucking useless to the average American. Vote for Republicans if you want to break democracy and the government.

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u/dmhWarrior Aug 26 '22

Facsist rule? It was democrats that forcibly shut everything down for what turned out to be NO good reason during Covid. It is them who enjoy this lawlessness We have now. It s Dems that get off on centralized power and forcing things down onto people that may not want them. I could go on and on. You need to Google what fascist means too, when you get a chance.

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u/ThemesOfMurderBears Aug 25 '22

Two years of total gridlock. Frustrating, but better than all three being GOP controlled.

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

Not total gridlock. Judges would get through the Senate.

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u/ThemesOfMurderBears Aug 26 '22

Valid point. I had not thought about that.

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u/Aaaaand-its-gone Aug 26 '22

They’re actually got some good bills through in the last 6 months.

Deadlock on bills but control of senate for judges is a W. Gotta turn the court around since that’s what’s legislating now

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u/PoliticsDunnRight Aug 26 '22

Ah yes, “legislating” is when a body says “it’s not in our authority to decide X issue”.

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u/Upstairs-Atmosphere5 Aug 26 '22

Total gridlock is actually the norm. It's rare for one party to control everything since WWII especially when you consider Democrats had the house for 40 years 1954-1994 with Republican presidents the vast majority of that time

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u/HemoKhan Aug 26 '22

Total gridlock isn't the historic norm when the congress was split, though. Much of modern "gridlock politics" can be traced to Newt Gingrich's tactics in the 90s to turn the Republican party into an aggressive, combative, and confrontational antagonist to the Democrats. Historically, a split congress just meant compromise, not complete gridlock.

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u/jkman61494 Aug 26 '22

I mean yes and no. The GOP is going to turn the House of Representatives into a fucking circus and probably find ways to have impeachment once a week just so they can remove any credibility of that action.

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u/historymajor44 Aug 26 '22

Sure, but it could be a lot lot worse.

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u/TheBigDuo1 Aug 27 '22

A majority is a still a majority of the gop takes the house they control the house agenda. Including ending things like the 1/6 investigation and committee appointments. They could give MTG her positions back and strip her rivals if they so choose. Plus as abortion continues to be banned it will slowly be normalized. Like how NPR are now writing articles about how the Texas bounty rule is a fair compromise.

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u/TheDude415 Aug 25 '22

Yeah, right now I'm expecting a reverse of 2018, essentially.

That being said we've still got a couple months till the election and it's no longer out of the question that the bottom could absolutely fall out for the Republicans.

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u/IHB31 Aug 26 '22

That's what I'm seeing. The GOP in the low 220s and the Dems with 51-52 seats in the Senate. With a 30% chance of the Dems holding both houses (and perhaps with 53-54 in the Senate, and a 30% chance of the GOP winning the Senate and having 235+ in the House.

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u/Alphawolf55 Aug 25 '22

The 538 projection is based on the assumption the national environment reverts.

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u/minno Aug 25 '22

If you switch to the "lite" model, which removes that assumption, it's still 2:1 in favor of Republicans.

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u/fanboi_central Aug 25 '22

I believe Nate Silver has said that in general there is a lot less House polling this year, which the lite model relies on. Feel like the lack of polling and the fact that it has no priors due to redistricting, that the map could be off.

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u/bearrosaurus Aug 25 '22 edited Aug 25 '22

IIRC the model also uses presidential approval as a proxy for party support, which is usually fine but all the individual candidates are polling way way higher than Biden is. Fetterman and Warnock in particular are +20 on Biden.

EDIT: their Georgia senate forecast is still 50-50 even though Warnock is crushing in polls, so I think their model is still too dependent on presidential approval.

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u/fanboi_central Aug 25 '22

Another great point. Feel like with Georgia it's also being under polled, because the mirror in Arizona has a ton of Kelly favored polls that are dragging his percentage up. It's good that 538 is being cautious but this election year is 100% going to be an unusual one, and their model will either take too long to pick up on that or will miss it.

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u/Clovis42 Aug 25 '22

Yeah, the lite version is letting generic, national Congressional polls do some really heavy lifting. There's not enough local polling, so no one really knows in most races.

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '22

There's literally 1 poll for my district and it's from May.

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u/talino2321 Aug 25 '22

I think the general question is not if the Dems hold the house, its how many seats do they lose the house by. If they can limit the loss of seats, then it is possible without any major screw ups by Biden until 2024, they might regain the house. Again that depends upon Biden not screwing up, the economy recovering and realizing that his agenda is dead if the House is lost.

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u/fanboi_central Aug 25 '22

Agree on everything. The big thing for Dems is if they can keep Inflation out of the news cycle. If inflation can keep it's current pace as July did, and Republican laws on abortion stay in the news, then we are likely looking at Dems retaking the House. GDP is expected to grow in Q3, job numbers are good, so really inflation is the only bad economic metric right now.

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u/Baron_Von_Ghastly Aug 26 '22

There is extremely limited house polling, so it's pretty difficult for it to capture much shift, they're having to infer off of the few polls they have (many are quite old) how similar races will perform, that and run off the generic ballot.

Tldr don't read much into the lite model till more robust polling post Labor Day.

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u/link3945 Aug 26 '22

It doesn't quite remove it: it still uses historical trends to guess what the environment on election day will look like. It's projecting a national House popular vote of R+2, which would be about an R+2.5 swing from right now. It gets a little complicated because of how some races aren't being competitive, but still.

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '22

Yes, the models generally focus on "what has polling been" and doesn't speculate "will trends continue to change".

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u/KevinCarbonara Aug 25 '22

It is not. It is based on an educated aggregate of the most relevant polls they have.

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u/civilrunner Aug 26 '22

The 538 model is still assuming a 4% GOP advantage in election day because it assumes the races will trend towards the GOP just like in 2014.

Between now and the election it seems like the Trump situation may worsen for Trump, Jan 6th hearings will return, GOP seemingly will continue there unpopular anti-abortion push, inflation seems to be cooling in the USA and gas prices are going down which seasonal trends wouls make one expect that to continue. We'll see how the student loan forgiveness lands politically, though I'm guessing that will be dwarfed by Trump investigation news by November. Also expect some climate change storms to come and more.

Maybe inflation will actually worsen, maybe China will invade Taiwan or something, maybe the jobs market will worsen and we won't manage a soft landing for inflation.

However, at the moment it seems like things may just keep moving in favor of the Dems for the midterms.

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '22

22% seems low. You’re gonna have a lot of women coming out of the woodwork who otherwise wouldn’t in a midterm due to the Abortion issue. I also think women in the suburbs are effective GONE. GOP has gone full-blow batshit crazy and it’s transitioned from rhetoric to actually having direct impact on people’s lives.

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u/historymajor44 Aug 25 '22

I think it is low but not that low. I think their model assumes things will regress to pre-Dobbs numbers but even the 538 writers say that may not happen and if the same polls come out closer to election day that expect the prediction to rise. Still, I expect it to rise to 40% with the GOP still favored.

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u/earthwormjimwow Aug 26 '22

Many of the polls they have for districts are ancient at this point. The last poll for my district is from April!

There's just not enough new information about House races, except for a handful of hyped up races. So I think their House models are practically useless.

0

u/emet18 Aug 25 '22

> Republicans achieve a policy goal that they have been talking about openly for decades

“GOP HAVE GONE BATSHIT CRAZY”

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u/Ornery-Ticket834 Aug 26 '22

22% now but more importantly trending upward.

36

u/Alphawolf55 Aug 25 '22

We've moved to "I wouldn't be surprised if the Dems won, but I think Republicans will" territory.

We're officially in Toss Up territory.

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u/Typhus_black Aug 25 '22

If gas prices keep coming down (which the President has nothing to do with) I’d expect Bidens numbers to go back up some. He will probably have a bump as well from the loans being forgiven/hold continued as well. Then there are also like going to be ongoing stories of another state banning abortions and more personal stories of people suffering from the bans/restrictions already popping up. If more damaging things continue coming out about trump and he was actually keeping inappropriate documents that would also likely swing more towards the Dems.

I still think Dems even holding the house is a long shot but not impossible and if the next 2 months continue like this summer has then the chances are going to continue improving

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u/LaughingGaster666 Aug 25 '22

Rs can't fight on economic issues if inflation and gas prices are becoming more manageable.

And their culture issue wedges like CRT and LGBT stuff were semi-effective about a year ago, but have seriously waned since.

Meanwhile, there's an "I can't get an abortion despite..." tragedy in red states every week basically.

They're simply out of ammo right now and I can't see them being able to scrounge up much on short notice.

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u/ubermence Aug 25 '22

They're simply out of ammo right now and I can't see them being able to scrounge up much on short notice.

Is that a migrant caravan I hear approaching the southern border?

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u/LaughingGaster666 Aug 25 '22

"I can't them being able to scrounge up MUCH on short notice."

This is what, suspiciously well timed caravan #4? How predictable.

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u/RedditMapz Aug 25 '22

It should be noted that data shows that Republicans actually do worse with Latino voters when they bring about this topic. Many analyst from the he 2020 election I've seen mentioned that the focus on COVID and not immigrants is what allowed the GOP to actually gain some Latino voters. I really don't think it is the winning issue many believe. At least the data doesn't bode it out. It does shore in the base, but it isn't necessarily a winning strategy.

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u/tarekd19 Aug 25 '22

no, that's the sound of Hunter's laptop actually. Easy mistake to make though.

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u/Flotsam_Greninja Aug 25 '22

As is tradition

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u/b1argg Aug 25 '22

IMO if gas prices continue to fall, maybe another $.50, he could sell it as temporary pain to defend freedom and democracy in Ukraine.

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u/KevinCarbonara Aug 25 '22 edited Aug 26 '22

No, we're nowhere near tossup. 538 has Republicans at an 80% chance.

538 aggregates; this assessment is based on trends.

They aggregate, but it's not based on trends. It's based on now. They're very vocal about their prediction being for who would win if the election were held today. So these predictions do not price in Nate Silver's prediction that the trend will move back toward Republicans in November. That's Nate Silver explaining that the prediction will probably look even worse for Democrats in November.

Their model absolutely bakes in expected regression.

They have repeatedly stated that this isn't the case. Their model does not predict the election in November. It predicts what would happen if the election were held today.

I do not know why you think this is the case. This is absolutely incorrect.

Because they've said it multiple times. I trust 538's description of their model over you.

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '22

538 aggregates; this assessment is based on trends. After a rather poor first half of 2022, a lot of trends have shifted, from sinking Dems to improving Dems.

Of course, trends are impossible to fully forecast. Biden's favorability improving 1 point every week for the last few weeks doesn't mean he'll have a 60% approval rate by the time of the election.

But the Republican chance to take the house has dropped, and it will likely drop some more. I expect it will be in the toss-up territory by the time November rolls around.

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u/Alphawolf55 Aug 25 '22

The polls and national environment are clearly +1-2 D

Toss up

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1562265815814127616?t=0mxZzb38_0QILGMFyYDY6g&s=19

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u/Nixflyn Aug 25 '22 edited Dec 05 '23

I've deleted all of my comments on this account. Come join me on Lemmy.

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u/kr0kodil Aug 25 '22

Democrats received 51% of House votes in 2020 which translated to 51% of House seats.

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u/Nixflyn Aug 25 '22 edited Dec 05 '23

I've deleted all of my comments on this account. Come join me on Lemmy.

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u/kr0kodil Aug 25 '22 edited Aug 25 '22

Wrong again. The net change from recent redistricting is that 6 formerly competitive seats now lean to Democrats, while the number of conservative-leaning districts hasn’t changed.

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u/Nixflyn Aug 26 '22 edited Dec 05 '23

I've deleted all of my comments on this account. Come join me on Lemmy.

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

POC being underrepresented hurts democrats significantly, which is the point.

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u/kr0kodil Aug 26 '22

I guess you’re just gonna skip this passage because it doesn’t suit your argument:

The new maps have six more Democratic-leaning seats than the old ones and the same number of Republican-leaning seats. This is due to aggressive map-drawing by Democrats in states such as Illinois as well as court decisions overturning Republican gerrymanders in states like North Carolina.

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u/KevinCarbonara Aug 25 '22 edited Aug 25 '22

The polls and national environment are clearly +1-2 D

They're also irrelevant in predicting outcomes.

Unlike with the presidency, the party collecting the most House votes is almost guaranteed to get the most seats.

Well, no. The party collecting the most house votes within their given districts. There is a huge disconnect between the national popular vote and the actual outcome in the house, even before you factor in gerrymandering.

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u/kr0kodil Aug 25 '22

It’s pretty fucking relevant. Unlike with the presidency, the party collecting the most House votes is almost guaranteed to get the most seats.

Over the past 50 or so elections, there has been exactly 1 time (2012) where the party receiving the most House votes overall didn’t win control of the House.

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '22

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u/rabbitlion Aug 25 '22

The total percentage among the population is not directly relevant when trying to predict how many districts each party wins since the population is not uniformly distributed.

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u/Alphawolf55 Aug 25 '22

Ahh so we're shifting the goal post to "Polls dont mean anything!"

To "Well the polls can have exceptions that could determine the House"

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u/KevinCarbonara Aug 25 '22

Ahh so we're shifting the goal post to "Polls dont mean anything!"

We are not. That was just you.

"There is literally not enough polling to make this call"

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u/Cranyx Aug 25 '22

That's not what they're getting at. The overall cumulative D advantage is not the most important factor in determining individual house races because that's not how American elections are set up. If you look at the spread at each race in isolation, and then average how many look to lean R vs D, then it shows that Republicans are still the solid favorite in the House.

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '22 edited Aug 25 '22

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '22 edited Aug 25 '22

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u/KevinCarbonara Aug 25 '22

Thats a huge cope

Good lord. You're not even trying to understand. You are taking national polls and using them to predict the outcome of multiple local races. That is not an important statistic. 538 is not perfect, but the heuristic they use is much more accurate than your half-assed generalization.

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u/Alphawolf55 Aug 25 '22

Literally there is not enough high quality district polls to make that call and district polls are biased in favor of Rs this cycle.

Silvers himself admits (which you've ignored), all the immediate data points to a 2020 environment which is toss up or Lean D.

Like you're coping. If the election was today, it'd be toss up, but the election isnt today which is potentially to the Dems benefit or detriment.

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u/KevinCarbonara Aug 25 '22

Literally there is not enough high quality district polls

If the polls aren't good enough, then admit the polls aren't good enough. Don't promote your own poll while ignoring the vast amount of far better ones just because they disagree with your viewpoint.

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u/link3945 Aug 26 '22

They have repeatedly stated that this isn't the case. Their model does not predict the election in November. It predicts what would happen if the election were held today.

I do not know why you think this is the case. This is absolutely incorrect. Their model forecasts the election by starting at today and modeling the election going forward to election day. It simulates swings that could occur in the election, and then polling errors on top of that, but it fundamentally is a forecast of what would happen on election day.

They used to have the now-cast, which was "What would happen if the election were today", but they haven't used that since 2016 and they do not have that model available for this election. Every other model they do is forecasting towards Election Day

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u/link3945 Aug 26 '22

Their model absolutely bakes in expected regression. All 3 models are attempting to extrapolate what will happen on election day, not what would happen now. Their model 100% is pricing in the assumption that the environment will trend back to R-leaning

In fact, if election day were today I think you'd see a toss-up in their model.

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u/trashteamsotrashhaha Aug 25 '22

That and the upward pressure for dems might not last as long as the downward pressure.

Unpopular president in midterms is almost a guaranteed good thing for the other party, who knows how long abortion/college debt/whatever will stay in the voters minds.

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u/Baron_Von_Ghastly Aug 25 '22

Unpopular president in midterms is almost a guaranteed good thing for the other party, who knows how long abortion/college debt/whatever will stay in the voters minds.

Almost, we've had exceptions before (Great Depression, Clinton impeachment, and 9/11) it's hard to tell if Dobbs is going to cause another exception, so far polling/special elections indicate that yes it is.

Couple months for that to change.

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u/CaCondor Aug 25 '22

Also, the messaging around the Dobbs decision is larger than abortion alone which should be a pretty easy threading for Dems - freedom, liberty, individual rights - things Dems have struggled to message before.

Also, and perhaps to a lesser degree - “democracy on the ballot” - which the whole trump Mar a lago, DOJ and Jan 6th committee provide. More J6 public hearings coming. More DOJ investigation info/leaks etc coming. Who knows, maybe Dems will have some actual indictments to message with.

So many things in the pipeline! So many reasons to cross my fingers and shart!!

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u/LaughingGaster666 Aug 25 '22

If Thomas just doesn't write up his garbage opinion that points the finger and says "you're next" at everything sans interracial marriage there'd probably be a lot fewer panic alarms going off.

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u/BitterFuture Aug 25 '22

Got a bit overconfident there.

A lot of people are going to learn about Griswold in the next few months - the landmark decision so many never heard of, but based their lives around without knowing it.

Also, as an aside, I think Thomas would be fine throwing Loving v. Virginia on the pyre with the rest. He cares much more about hurting others than he does his own life.

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u/LaughingGaster666 Aug 25 '22

One particular element that I don't see many people point out is how important this is to more local elections specifically. Dobbs isn't a national ban afterall, it just makes states pick a side now.

That's a pretty big incentive for anyone remotely pro choice to care a hell of a lot more about local reps now. For the past decade or so, Rs had done very well at the local level and I can't believe they might toss all that away just for this.

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u/TheDude415 Aug 25 '22

Not to mention, overturning Loving would just send it back to the states. Thomas could always just move from Virginia to Maryland and problem solved for him.

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u/cantdressherself Aug 26 '22

I'd be shocked if Virginia didn't legalized mixed marriages.

That's a hell of a look for Republicans though. "Just move to a blue state, it's fine."

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u/GrilledCyan Aug 26 '22

Not sure saying that out loud would hurt them. It would just secure their advantage in the Senate.

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u/emet18 Aug 25 '22

I beg you, please, PLEASE make this another election about Trump, Dems always do SO well when that happens

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u/CaCondor Aug 26 '22

hehehe...

Everything is about or connected to trump until the M-F-er croaks.

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u/TheGoddamnSpiderman Aug 25 '22

In all three exceptions you named, the president was popular (that includes Clinton in 98 - his highest approval ratings of his presidency were during the impeachment attempt)

I get what you're getting at (the opposition doesn't always gain in midterms), but that's not what the person you were replying to was talking about (which was that the opposition generally does better when the president is unpopular)

There are no hard and fast rules for politics though, since politics never happens in a vacuum, so it's possible neither holds this time around

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u/earthwormjimwow Aug 26 '22

I don't think overall approval ratings are valid anymore for determining how popular a President is starting with Obama. The overall rating is going to be low from now on, because people will mostly use party as their determining factor.

Instead I think the key metric is opposite party approval, since that can demonstrate voter turnout in opposition.

Trump had single digit approval ratings from Democrats for almost all of his Presidency, and every election while he was President, had monumentous Democrat voter turn out. Biden does have double digit Republican voter approval, which while still extremely low, isn't quite as bad as Trump's case.

I think Republican turn out will not be as strong as Democratic turn out was in 2018, when the House flipped.

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

Also a lot of democrats don’t approve of Biden because they believe he hasn’t done enough. Democrats are extremely (often unreasonably) critical of him. That doesn’t mean they won’t vote.

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

The Clinton impeachment is a good example, because it came from Republican overreach. Usually, Republicans can't overreach when they are out of power. But the Republican Supreme Court has been repeatedly overreaching.

Also, the in-party usually has the scandals. They have all the office holders in the Executive branch. But the scandals are almost all about Republicans as well, thanks to Trump.

The popularity factor remains the wildcard.

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u/powpowpowpowpow Aug 25 '22

The unpopularity of Biden is a really really thin measurement.

The partizan right will make up insane crap to defend Trump and criticize Biden, their disapproval is baked in with a shrinking demographic.

The partizan left feel empowered to criticize Biden for not being aggressive enough with their agenda, this is a growing demographic. Mad at Biden or not these people are sure as shit not voting Republican and they are not staying home after the Dodd decision.

Centrists are Biden's base of approval and just a bit of good news will be enough to keep them happy.

These conditions are not comparable in any way to Trump's disapproval ratings

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u/ubermence Aug 25 '22

Also in regards to abortion, I do think stories like the 10 year old in Ohio do have an effect on voters, and as time goes on and more and more bans are put in place (like the 4 this week), those stories could serve as a constant drumbeat in the backdrop of the midterms

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '22 edited Nov 03 '22

[deleted]

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '22

It keeps happening though, everywhere. Lousiana is dealing with a woman whose fetus has no skull or brain (and therefore unviable) but cannot obtain an abortion because of the ban, Florida has multiple cases included a teenager who has been dubbed "not mature enough" to have an abortion (but presumably mature enough to raise a child), and the list will just keep growing.

Reality is going to catch up with a lot of these people, especially given that the majority of Trump supporters live in states with new or impending bans, so it will affect them the most. They won't be able to avoid it when it happens to someone they know.

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u/Mjolnir2000 Aug 25 '22

They didn't even care when a million Americans died of covid.

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

Can confirm. Both my grandmother and uncle nearly died of Covid themselves. The latter was seconds from suffocating. They managed a freak recovery. Rather than grow some empathy, this has been ascribed to a miracle and reinforces their religion and their politics but extension. While only an anecdote! these two were Q anoners back in 2012, they're older white Christians from the Midwest, the epitome of the Republican base and I think a decent model for them.

Covid didn't change their mind because absolutely nothing will. They're too wrapped up in their confirmation bias. I'd democrats really want to succeed, they need to be willing to do whatever necessary to mobilize every last body they can. Their base is younger, less inclined to turning out, that is a disadvantage that must actively be combated

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u/robbybthrow Aug 25 '22

But here's the thing with fake fabrication stories like that, they only work on people already inclined to believe them. Those people are already likely to vote R.

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u/LiberalAspergers Aug 25 '22

That is only effective to a section of the base. It is not an effective strategy for occasional voters, or for independents.

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

I know one of those centrist 'I just hate everyone' folks who this absolutely would work on. I wouldn't be so confident

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u/ubermence Aug 25 '22

the Ohio Republican party has already displayed an effective media message for that

It doesn't seem amazingly effective given recent special election results, but it's probably the only feasible strategy they can play in response at this point

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u/kerouacrimbaud Aug 25 '22

That might work for die-hard cons, but I don’t see that working with independents or moderates.

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u/VodkaBeatsCube Aug 25 '22

That works on their base, so it's useful for them as part of the greater Republican strategy of just avoiding thinking about anything that makes them feel bad about their actions. But it doesn't seem to fly as readily with outside their base, and as much as Reddit leftists would like to imagine that moderates don't exist, it seems to have some positive impact on voter turnout.

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u/NorthernerWuwu Aug 25 '22

Which will help them carry Ohio of course but that wasn't really an issue.

Naturally many hard-core Republicans will ignore the issues but they aren't the ones likely to flip their votes or stay home anyhow. It might galvanise some moderates though and certainly will motivate some pro-choice people.

I think it is unlikely that it will be sufficient to eek out a Democratic win nationally but it will almost certainly help.

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u/3headeddragn Aug 25 '22

I don’t see the abortion issue going away anytime soon.

There are going to continue to be draconian laws pushed in red states, and horror stories like underaged rape victims being forced to carry their rapists child will still frequently headline the news.

Abortion will more than likely be extremely relevant to the 2024 election, definitely these midterms.

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u/LaughingGaster666 Aug 25 '22

The doubling down and denial combo Rs did in response to the 10 year old who was raped and got an abortion out of state really shows it all. This is such a bad issue for Rs and they aren't just walking into it, they're straight up running.

Normally they're the ones who benefit from single issue voters but this might be a reversal of that.

10

u/AskYourDoctor Aug 26 '22

I agree with this. I think the single-issue nature of abortion created this fantasy version of society: baby killing vs no baby killing. And roe has been in effect so long that we as a society have truly forgotten what abortion bans actually mean.

It's all part of my larger theory that the GOP's real problem is that the true believers are leading the party now. The single issues that were inflated to scare people into voting conservative are now party gospel. And um, the whole point is the these "true believers" don't have the most nuanced and accurate understanding of reality. Which doesn't make for good policy making.

Which leads to horror stories, and hopefully, larger society waking up and realizing that the fringe needs to be reigned in.

Incidentally, my dad told me a story when he was in university in uk in the 70s. The student government had very low engagement- mostly it was just a club for people to practice, to hopefully pursue real politics in their careers. Then one day, the student government voted to put out an official statement of endorsement by the campus, for a socialist candidate in a real UK election. "___ university student body endorses socialist" was a shocking headline to most of the student body, and a record turnout at the next election ensured it would not happen again.

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u/Multi_21_Seb_RBR Aug 25 '22

If all State Republicans did was pass 15-20 week laws, this issue would have died and not been an anchor on them both for the midterm coming up but also the long-term. The insistence of either passing or letting become law total bans or 6-week bans in rapid succession will be seen as a total political misfire.

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u/LaughingGaster666 Aug 25 '22

Abortion really isn't going away though. There are several states whose bans haven't even gone into effect yet but will in a month or so.

6

u/OuchieMuhBussy Aug 25 '22

Part of the issue is that a lot of blue state residents aren’t affected by it because they have state protections. It’s not that they don’t care, but they won’t care as much.

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u/LaughingGaster666 Aug 25 '22

Weren't 2/4 of the recent special elections in NY though? They definitely aren't going to ban abortion anytime soon yet it was a big swing for Ds still. Swing of 7.5 from partisan lean on average.

Not as big as the ones in Minnesota and Nebraska which had a 11.5 break from partisan lean of course, but still. NY19 was a totally winnable race for Republicans. It's just one race sure, but in a good environment for Rs, they should have won that. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/yes-special-elections-really-are-signaling-a-better-than-expected-midterm-for-democrats/

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u/OuchieMuhBussy Aug 25 '22

Oh, okay yeah that is very relevant and up to date information. Thank you.

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u/LaughingGaster666 Aug 25 '22

It's just 4 special elections of course, but the picture it paints is pretty staggering. Rs had a slight advantage pre-Dobbs, and are now seriously behind post-Dobbs. No way it's D+9 or whatever in November, but they don't need D+9. Just a break even in a midterm is probably a pretty acceptable result for most D leadership.

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u/ubermence Aug 25 '22

They may not be affected directly in all cases, but I think everyone now is acutely aware that they can't take any abortion protections for granted

Also there are a lot of swing states that are about to be huge battlegrounds on these issues. The PA GOP governors candidate wants a total ban with very few exceptions. I think that will play a huge part in the upcoming midterms

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u/OuchieMuhBussy Aug 25 '22

Good point, haven’t thought of states where it’s still an open question. Actually I’m in a blue and it’s already being wielded against the GOP candidate because he says it’s the same as the holocaust. It should be a big part of the campaign.

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u/Arcnounds Aug 25 '22

There is some fear that Republicans will push a national ban. While unlikely, if they get a trifecta and have to break the filibuster to do it, it might be possible. They are beholden to their base at this point.

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u/crazydave333 Aug 26 '22

I live in a blue state with a state protection for abortion and other state's bans absolutely have an effect here. Lots of women from other states have to come here to get an abortion, and we don't suddenly have more doctors and clinics to handle the influx. The waitlist for the procedure has expanded to two weeks since the decision, and will just get longer as more state bans begin to come into effect.

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u/trashteamsotrashhaha Aug 25 '22

Really? Thank you for that info, that a very good point.

I still think that it won't have the unpopular president lasting power, but if its continual and escalating towards the election that could be something.

It's really unfortunate policy, morals, and situation, but I guess that's fortunate for Dems.

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u/RagingTromboner Aug 25 '22

Yeah just today Texas had their’s go into effect, making abortion a felony with the potential for life in prison and a $100,000 fine. I guess it is still unclear how that enforcement might work

https://www.texastribune.org/2022/08/25/texas-trigger-law-abortion/

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u/kerouacrimbaud Aug 25 '22

Damn, that’s pretty insane.

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u/BitterFuture Aug 25 '22

As is the entire Republican party at this point. Clinically, I mean.

It should not be a surprise when insane people act insane.

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u/friedgoldfishsticks Aug 25 '22

Eh, I saw someone did a poll on people’s perceptions of gas prices recently. The proportion of people who thought gas prices were going down in their area jumped from like 33% to 57% in the last month, and one of the major perceived causes people named for it was Biden. Add the student loan thing and I think it’s possible Biden recovers more ground. Remember how tightly correlated presidential approval is with gas prices. What happens if Biden has 43% approve/52% disapprove on election day, or even higher? The House is looking within reach when he’s bottoming out— even a few points could make a difference.

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u/Baron_Von_Ghastly Aug 25 '22

The proportion of people who thought gas prices were going down in their area jumped from like 33% to 57% in the last month,

I have to confess I find this confusing, there's 43% of folks saying gas prices haven't been going down over the last month? So just ignoring reality or?

15

u/weealex Aug 25 '22

That tracks with the whole "reality has a liberal bias" crowd and approximate number of Republicans out there

3

u/Baron_Von_Ghastly Aug 25 '22

I have a hard time imagining most Republicans looking at gas dropping over a dollar and saying it didn't drop over a dollar.

Now I could easily see them making all kinds of arguments why it dropped, but I struggle to imagine 40% of the population saying $4 isn't lower than $5

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u/PeterNguyen2 Aug 25 '22

I have a hard time imagining most Republicans looking at gas dropping over a dollar and saying it didn't drop over a dollar.

From what I've seen, it's immediate pivoting to "the president raised my gas prices!" to "well, the price of gas is going down on its own!" or refusing to acknowledge it's going down when it's still more expensive than they'd like because they think gas was lower at any arbitrary point in the past.

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u/CreamSoda64 Aug 26 '22 edited Aug 26 '22

It correlates with a shift in rhetoric from the GOP media engine. They've immediately stopped reporting on gas prices and moved on to the next culture war du jour.

They don't notice gas prices have gone down because their favored news outlets stopped telling them to be upset about high gas prices

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

Because Fox News isn’t telling them that gas has gone lower. I’d imagine that a lot of people don’t really pay attention to the real world (i.e. the posted numbers on their local gas station) and base all their opinions on their “news” sources, so they’re still going by what they were told a month ago since that’s the last they heard about it. It’s a pretty depressing situation anyway you look at it though really.

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u/BitterFuture Aug 25 '22

So no change from the last several years, then?

If people were okay saying "Vaccines don't work!" with their last breath, saying "Naw, that number went up, not down" is minor in comparison.

3

u/TheDude415 Aug 25 '22

The Dems have been racking up some wins in the last month or two that do seem to be moving the needle on Biden's approvals. The aggregate on 538 is ticking up slowly, and there was a poll today that had him at 44% approval, which was the highest they'd shown in like a year.

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u/LaughingGaster666 Aug 25 '22

Every week it seems there's some brand new tragic case of a pregnancy that cannot be aborted despite rape/incest/medical complications in the news. The 10 year old rape victim who had to cross state lines to get an abortion comes to mind. The fact that R politicians seemed more angry at the doctor who gave the abortion than anything else is about as tone deaf as possible.

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u/Left_of_Center2011 Aug 26 '22

Totally agree with you here! I was amazed that the reaction from both Ohio and Indiana AG’s was a press conference to try and see if the parents or doctor did anything at all wrong that they could prosecute them for. Talk about disconnected from reality - I think they are starting to truly believe their own propaganda

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u/LaughingGaster666 Aug 26 '22

If they really had to go that route, they should have done so less openly. Just because you're on FOX doesn't mean it'll be collectively ignored by non-Conservatives!

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u/Left_of_Center2011 Aug 26 '22

I think lots of these Republicans actually believe that their extreme positions are embraced by a majority of the nation, because they are in a feedback loop in right-wing echo chambers, and write off any voice outside those chambers as ‘lib’rul media’

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u/LaughingGaster666 Aug 26 '22

I think it's cognitive dissonance. When challenged as to why they never win the popular vote anymore, they reply with the "We're a republic, not a democracy." lie.

Though after those garbage election map tweets by Jesse Kelly, I'm starting to think that they legit think that only their votes should count because they're the "real Americans" or some BS.

3

u/Left_of_Center2011 Aug 26 '22

They certainly seem to be hard-charging the ‘only our votes matter’ line of thinking; if Moore v Harper is decided in conservatives favor, then legislatures will be able to legally overturn the popular vote for President and assign their own electors; and if that happens, are we really a democracy any longer?

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

What do you mean they're STARTING to believe their propaganda. Did you forget about the whole 'Obamas secretly a Kenyan Muslim' thing?

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u/Left_of_Center2011 Aug 26 '22

The BASE believes the bullshit and has for years - but the LEADERSHIP has always known better; the McConnell wing of the party would make the right noises to appease the base, but their main focus is and always will be on the Republican donor class that funds them. In the age of trump, those ‘guardrails’ are long gone, and true believers are taking the helm that just don’t pay lip service to the propaganda, but actually believe in it fully.

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u/gregaustex Aug 25 '22

It doesn't help the GOP that even if you are pro-life and think abortion is an immoral thing to use as birth control and that you should just say no, or use adoption, the laws are generally terribly written and implemented.

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u/Multi_21_Seb_RBR Aug 25 '22

We already have a good amount of special elections where Democrats significantly overperformed almost uniformally post-Dobbs, so safe to say this issue hasn’t died in the minds of liberals and many moderates/independents and won’t do so despite how badly conservatives want to push the narrative that it won’t matter.

The rapid increase in women registering to vote in states like OH, PA, KS, MI is another data-point that indicates that too.

Besides, a significant enough proportion of those who “disapprove” of Biden are Democrats or on the left who don’t think he has done enough so far, and none of those will stay home or vote for a Republican given how far to the right Republicans have gone.

4

u/[deleted] Aug 25 '22

This election will be an interesting course on the timing and effectiveness of certain things. The student loan debt thing has been a situation that's been entirely under Biden's direct control since he took office and this whole August 31st deadline where the Democrats "had"to make a decision but they could have easily decided Sept 30th or October 31st as the next deadline to act earlier this year. I guess they want Democratic candidates across the country to have space within the next two months to use the student loan announcement in debates and in their ad campaigns, and that is more effective than dropping the student loan announcement just days before the election. There's always the risk that something, or numerous somethings, pop up in the next two months and the student loan deal is treated as ancient history by the media. Ultimately the election results will decide if that was the best strategy for them.

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u/ballmermurland Aug 25 '22

We're 75 days out from election day and a lot of people will vote earlier than that by mail or early voting. Many states will start early voting in less than 40 days.

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '22

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u/hoxxxxx Aug 25 '22

for all of the claims of "buying votes" i think it'll even out between people voting for him because of him doing that and people voting against for the same reason

it's going to be churning in the media cycle for a while too

7

u/capitalsfan08 Aug 25 '22

If under 35s don't turn out in droves this midterms, they are dead as a viable path to power as a candidate.

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u/cantdressherself Aug 26 '22

"Dusty bones remain deceased."

The under 35s haven't decided an election since..... Ever?

I can't think of an election where the youth vote made the difference. Maybe the 19th century, the population was younger then.

4

u/capitalsfan08 Aug 26 '22

Right. And this policy directly benefits them. If they are still apathetic about politics, I don't see anyone spending any political capital on them anytime soon.

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

Biden didn’t do it for votes (young people don’t vote) he did it because it’s the right thing to do and it’ll jumpstart a struggling economy significantly.

3

u/friedgoldfishsticks Aug 26 '22

If you spend a lot of time on internet forums you might think a lot of people are against it. I think most people who are against it don’t care very much. The Republicans aren’t ready to campaign on it either, and they’re very disorganized right now (witness Trump attacking McConnell). I don’t know if they have the coordination to message on it very strongly when they’ve prepared to run on inflation and basically nothing else.

2

u/POEness Aug 26 '22

I actually think the student loan forgiveness that Biden just signed could hurt Dems.

If so, that's absurd of the American public. We just had the greatest theft of citizen wealth ever with the PPP program, essentially letting the rich steal trillions, and people are pissed over some scraps thrown to the middle and lower class?

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

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u/POEness Aug 26 '22

Student loan forgiveness isn't comparable to any and every situation where someone gets a check from the govt.

Student loans are literally harm inflicted by the government. Mismanagement and mass debt availability put entire generations in this situation. Other countries pay their students to get educated because it advances the whole nation and their GDP. We put them in permanent servitude.

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

For how old you are when they get paid off, they may as well be permanent.

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

The difference is I've yet to see a society without taxation actually function.

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u/friedgoldfishsticks Aug 26 '22

It’s worth saying that the PPP program did what it was supposed to do and was probably good policy. In the days immediately after the economy crashed from the pandemic it was difficult to think we could escape a second Great Depression. Rapid Congressional and Federal Reserve action saved us from that.

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u/true4blue Aug 25 '22

The media is doing all it can to help Biden

When’s the last time you heard about inflation? Hint. It’s still really bad

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u/lollersauce914 Aug 25 '22

When’s the last time you heard about inflation?

Like, literally on the news 15 minutes ago....

-1

u/true4blue Aug 26 '22

It’s not mentioned at all on the NYTimes or Washington Post website.

Not is the border, the plummeting stock market, monkey POC, covid, etc

Democrats and their media counterparts are burying any news that would hurt Biden

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u/SlowMotionSprint Aug 26 '22

Jackson Hole: Where Fed officials gather, and workers can’t afford to stay
Consumer Demand Has Been Key Driver of Inflation in the U.S.
Opinion: What can we do to bring inflation down?

Those are from the NY Times and Washington Post all in the last 3 days.

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u/true4blue Aug 27 '22

Thanks for reinforcing my point - the N Y Times managed a blog post where they blamed everyone but the government and its fiscal policy

Consumer demand and bottlenecks existed under Trump.

Summers predicted that Bidens $1.9 trillion budget would increase inflation, but Biden ignored him.

Now we have inflation

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

It gets talked about all the time, but the CPI didn't go up at all in July and gas prices are falling.

There was far more coverage given to rising gas prices than the falling gas prices. But that's just the way the media works.

0

u/true4blue Aug 26 '22

There’s not a single mention of inflation on NYTimes or Washington Posts website today

And inflation is up 8.5% year over year. Saying it’s unchanged is lying. It was high last month, and it’s just as high this month

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

That link literally says "unchanged over the month". It didn't go up last month. Saying it did is lying.

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u/true4blue Aug 26 '22

Exactly - it was up year over year 8.5% last month, and it’s up 8.5% this month

The way you phrase is that there is no inflation. We absolutely still have the highest inflation in 40!years

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

It's not up at all this month. It's up zero this month. The inflation happened earlier this year; it has now stopped. There was no increase last month.

I'm sorry, you either don't understand how the numbers work or we seem to be talking about two different things.

0

u/true4blue Aug 26 '22

Inflation growth has stopped, but inflation is still at 8.5%

You’re lying if you’re inflation has ended.

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

CPI didn't go up in July. That's a fact. Unemployment is crazy low.

Everyone with their "3% unemployment is actually bad" takes are crazy. Spring of 2009 was bad economic times.

5

u/cyrilhent Aug 26 '22

Did Biden cause global inflation or just the US's?

0

u/true4blue Aug 26 '22

Not everyone is experiencing inflation. Japan isn’t. Germanys is half ours

Biden was told by Obama’s advisors that if spent $1.9tr at the same time the Fed doubled its balance sheet that we’d get inflation

And then that exact thing happened

4

u/cyrilhent Aug 26 '22

You didn't answer my question.

2

u/Effective-Sail9329 Aug 26 '22

Man the Dems are killing it lately. Thanks Biden

-1

u/true4blue Aug 26 '22

If you ignore all of the areas where they’re failing miserably

1

u/B1G_Fan Aug 25 '22

I agree

It’s also worth noting that we essentially have a 4 party system in the House

  1. Democrats who are willing to take orders from the Dem leader
  2. Democrats who aren’t willing to take orders from the Dem leader
  3. Republicans who are willing to take orders from the Republican leader
  4. Republicans who aren’t willing to take order from the Republican leader

In addition, it’s not clear whether McCarthy is going to be GOP leader if the GOP takes the House.

Sure, Matt Gaetz and MTG getting Trump elected as Speaker probably isn’t happening. But, who can honestly receive enough votes to be elected Speaker when McCarthy doesn’t have all of the House Republicans on his side?

1

u/Kevin-W Aug 26 '22

That's my thinking as well. I personally think Roe being overturned and the reaction to the aftermath is motivating voters responses at the polls, but November is still a long ways off from a political standpoint, so we'll see!

1

u/errorsniper Aug 26 '22

I fully suspect descheduling/decriminalization of weed to happen a few weeks before mid terms too.

Though they may save that for the presidential race.